Mamo 442: Where Are They Gonna Poop?

Mamo!

The Mamo Summer Box Office Contest is here! Matt & Matt handicap the big releases of the summer of 2016 and invite YOU to do the same. Captain America! Alice! Suicide Squad! Ghostbusters! Independence Day! The Big Fuckin’ Giant! Who will win??

We have a NEW game system this year, thanks to Mamo listener Andrew Robinson! Please visit boxofficetournament.com, create an account, and draft your picks. You can revise your draft as many times as you like until you hit “LOCK PICKS” or midnight on May 1st arrives, whichever comes first. Then your entry is set in stone!

Note: grosses are to be entered in the hundreds of millions, i.e. 400, not $400,000,000.

Second note: You may cross-post your picks to the comments here for added discussion, but ONLY entries at boxofficetournament.com will be considered for the contest.

Third note: blu-ray to the winner, care of RowThree.com! May the best prognosticator win.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

1. Suicide Squad 153 426
2. Captain America: Civil War 145 395
3. Finding Dory 101 383
4. X-Men: Apocalypse 103 275
5. Ghostbusters 97 275
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 97 275
7. Alice Through the Looking Glass 80 220
8. Star Trek Beyond 65 177
9. Independence Day: Resurgence 66 175
10. Warcraft 64 175

Already posted on Andrew’s badass site. Strategically downplaying TMNT II (yeah, I had it higher than 97, 275)

Matthew Price
Guest

Captain America: Civil War 500 200
Ghostbusters (2016) 320 130
Finding Dory 290 90
Jason Bourne 280 90
Independence Day: Resurgence 250 90
X-Men: Apocalypse 240 100
Alice Through the Looking Glass 210 60
Suicide Squad 180 80
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 160 60
The Conjuring 2 140 50

Nandes
Guest

Big ups to Andrew Robinson and the long time work of G.E. Hale.

I’ve taken my first stab at a rough draft, but need to think harder about opening $$$ and a potential dark horse.

Nandes
Guest

After weeks of not thinking about it, I logged back in and gave myself 30 seconds to lock in. Looking for a strong, middle of the pack finish.

1 Civil War – 475/200
2 Finding Dory – 360/150
3 Suicide Squad – 350/90
4 Independence Day – 325/90
5 Ghostbusters – 300/105
6 X-Men: Apocalypse – 275/90
7 Jason Bourne – 250/75
8 Star Trek Beyond – 205/90
9 Turtles – 200/75
10 Alice – 200/70

Sean Kelly
Guest

Some of the picks on my list are quite ballsy.

1 Independence Day: Resurgence 650 200
2 Captain America: Civil War 425 150
3 Suicide Squad 330 95
4 Ghostbusters (2016) 300 125
5 Finding Dory 275 85
6 Alice Through the Looking Glass 250 90
7 X-Men: Apocalypse 235 100
8 Star Trek Beyond 215 65
9 Warcraft 200 75
10 Jason Bourne 180 55

Dan Gorman
Guest

I don’t know what I’m doing at all:

1 Suicide Squad 400 120
2 Captain America: Civil War 390 140
3 Ghostbusters (2016) 330 120
4 X-Men: Apocalypse 250 100
5 Independence Day: Resurgence 200 90
6 Star Trek Beyond 200 90
7 Finding Dory 190 90
8 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 150 65
9 The Conjuring 2 100 40
10 Lights Out 60 15

Also, I found a bug: these picks were my previous draft, I wasn’t planning on having Lights Out on there at all and wanted Bourne on the Top 10, so I made some changes and hit POST – but I guess because I didn’t click SAVE DRAFT before clicking POST it reverted back to my previous, sillier picks. Oh welp.

But watch out, save draft early save draft often, people!

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Hey Dan… when you say “Hit POST” I’m a bit lost. Do you mean the Lock Picks button?

If that’s the case I can clear that up for you. If you want to re-edit your team let me know quickly and I’ll let you able to clear that up. I’ll address that bug in an update tonight.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I haven’t really seen anything other than the poster for the PETE’S DRAGON remake, but the original was a film I loved watching as a kid (with a very memorable supporting performance by Mickey Rooney).

Andrew James
Admin

I know it’s not eligible for this contest, but is THE JUNGLE BOOK on anyone’s radar? Seems like the sort of generational fare that may or may not work that we’ve been discussing here for the past year or so.

Voncaster
Guest

I’m very interested in this as the 3D is supposed to be very good. Its also a bit exotic, in that it comes from Rudyard Kipling and not the Brothers Grim. The Indian Jungle is also different from the European storybook castles that serve as the setting for a lot of classic Disney.

I don’t think it will go crazy as far as box office. How did Cinderella do? I expect it will perform in the same space.

I’ll probably go see this I’m interested enough.

Andrew James
Admin

The first trailer kind of had me rolling my eyes a bit; but the second trailer had a little more going on and kind of intrigued me. If there’s nothing else happening that weekend I might check it out – will depend on early reviews though too.

Andrew James
Admin

Reviews are coming in and they are stellar. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% (with only 19 reviews so far) and my LetterBoxd has all 4+ stars. One of the guests on “Doug Loves Movies” was praising it too. I’m getting more and more interested in this. Like I said, the second trailer really intrigued me and if critically reception remains impressively high, I’m totally in.

jamiedew
Guest

Here. We. Go.
Finding Dory 390 135
Captain America: Civil War 285 175
The BFG 260 85
Suicide Squad 245 110
Jason Bourne 225 70
X-Men: Apocalypse 220 85
Ghostbusters (2016) 215 90
Independence Day: Resurgence 200 85
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 195 80
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping 170 55

darwin
Guest

So, that site has a few bugs I created an acount but then when I tried to log in I got an aspx error page.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

Hey Darwin,

The issue has been sorted now. Sorry about that.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I saw the trailer for Lights Out today. I doubt it will make much money, but it might be a fun time at the movies.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Here’s the trailer link – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LiKKFZyhRU

Courtney Small
Guest

Is anyone else having problems seeing their picks after they locked them in? When I clicked “go to team” nothing happens; and when I check out the scoreboard I see everyone’s picks but not my own. Not sure if this is a minor bug or merely a browser issue on my end.

Love the new contest site though. Great job, Andrew.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

send you a dm on twitter.

Domenic Smith
Guest

Hi Andrew, put in an entry at boxofficetournament.com last night. I locked in my picks. I reviewed it and everything looked good. Checked it an hour later and its just blank. Still is a day later. Its the only entry like this. Do I need to redo or is it salvageable? Thanks.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

Hey Domenic,

Thanks for pointing this out. I’ve fixed that now. You should be seeing your picks when you look for it now.

Alex
Guest

Thanks Andrew. Guessing you’re a little annoyed about dealing with these IT issues given the unpaid nature of this endeavour. Appreciate the hard work.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Nope man that’s cool. I have plans for this site… So no worries. I’m happy to have so many unpaid testers 🙂

Courtney Small
Guest

Captain America: Civil War 368/176
Finding Dory 335/100
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles OOTS 284/85
Alice Through the Looking Glass 270/65
Ghostbusters 268/50
Suicide Squad 258/63
Independence Day: Resurgence 240/70
X-Men: Apocalypse 221/90
The Secret Life of Pets 215/65
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 177/48

This year’s strategy: Slot in the ladies (McCarthy, Harley Quinn, DeGeneres, and Alice) and Cap first then let the rest fall randomly into place.

mike rot
Guest

OK the winner:

1. Civil War – 496/140
2. X-Men – 478/140
3. Suicide Squad – 400/120
4. Finding Dory – 399/100
5. Ghostbusters – 367/95
6. Independence Day – 315/89
7. TMNT2 – 308/75
8. The Angry Birds Movie – 289/80
9. Star Trek Beyond – 253/75
10. Jason Bourne – 248/80

mike rot
Guest

also I didn’t see Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates as an option on the list, I probably wouldn’t pick it, but I feel like it could be a sleeper hit.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Will try and update the data soon…

Sadly updates in the next coming days will be rough as my computer just died last night. Need to see what I can do to MacGuyer it up.

Nat Almirall
Guest

Forgive the newbie question: These for domestic gross or worldwide?

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

domestic

antho42
Guest

1 Captain America: Civil War 489 175
2 Finding Dory 370 120
3 Ghostbusters 333 94
4 Independence Day: Resurgence 289 100
5 Alice Through the Looking Glass 275 130
6 X-Men: Apocalypse 244 125
7 Jason Bourne 227 69
8 The BFG 208 55
9 Suicide Squad 200 65
10 Star Trek Beyond 149 63

Goon
Guest

1 Captain America: Civil War 400 210
2 Finding Dory 370 90
3 Alice Through the Looking Glass 350 75
4 Independence Day: Resurgence 340 100
5 X-Men: Apocalypse 300 90
6 Ghostbusters (2016) 250 65
7 Star Trek Beyond 220 70
8 Suicide Squad 200 80
9 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 175 70
10 Jason Bourne 155 50

Raymond
Guest

Here we go again:
1. Cap Murica 450 170
2. Finding Dory 370 102
3. X-Men: A Pox on Thee 350 130
4. The Secret Life of Pets 340 90
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 300 85
6. The Legend of Tarzan 290 95
7. ID5: Resurgence 260 105
8. Ghostbusters 250 103
9. Suicide Squad 245 85
10. Star Trek into the Darkness Beyond the Pines 240 103

Voncaster
Guest

I feel like the person in the office turning in an NCAA bracket who does not know the first thing about basketball. I watch movies but don’t pay much attention to grosses. In my first draft every film was a near record for the franchise in domestic gross.

1. Captain 400/166
2. Independence 350/160
3. Dory 250/83
4. Alice 225/75
5. X-men 210/70
6. Suicide 200/66
7. Star Trek 175/58
8. Ghostbusters 151/50
9. Jason Bourne 150/50
10. Neighbors 2 100/75

Raymond
Guest

Having info does not help, and more than likely hinders.

devolutionary
Guest

Alright, I’ve finally locked my picks. I was hoping for some sort of last-second inspiration to guide my choices, but alas no. Less conservative ($) than last year.

1. Captain America: Civil War 560/195
2. X-Men: Apocalypse 440/175
3. Finding Dory 320/145
4. Ghostbusters (2016) 285/130
5. Suicide Squad 265/110
6. Star Trek Beyond 225/85
7. Independence Day: Resurgence 210/100
8. TMNT: Out of the Shadows 190/105
9. Jason Bourne 165/95
10. The Conjuring 2 130/70

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Hey Andrew,
Absolutely great site and thanks for taking the time to put it together. Now unfortunately discovered a backend error.

I think it’s simply from the fact that I was taking too long looking up data on Box Office Mojo and nudging my various predictions up and down. I’m guessing the site no longer had me logged in and when I went to save my draft I got the following error.

Server Error in ‘/’ Application.
Child actions are not allowed to perform redirect actions.
Description: An unhandled exception occurred during the execution of the current web request. Please review the stack trace for more information about the error and where it originated in the code.
Exception Details: System.InvalidOperationException: Child actions are not allowed to perform redirect actions.
Source Error:
Line 50: @if (film.Models.general.user.id == 0)
Line 51: {
Line 52: Html.RenderAction(“LoginForm”, “User”);
Line 53: }
Line 54: else
Source File: h:\root\home\gmanr26-001\www\site1\Views\Shared\_Layout.cshtml Line: 52

Perhaps add a little bit more time before timing out the user?

Now while I still have my titles in place, all the values are gone. 🙁

Thankfully I still have a bit of time between now and midnight deadline. This time I’ll play with the data in Google Docs before coming to a final decision and moving it over.

Andrew James
Admin

Took me a while to figure out that you weren’t talking to me about this site. A good thing you’re not as the code you pasted is a bit over my head. All yours, Andrew 2.0

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Opps! I’m so sorry about that. I guess with multiple Andrews I should make sure I say Andrew Robinson and say boxofficetournament.com. Something I should really know with a common name like Matthew and there often being multiple Matthews with enough people my age (as seen here with myself, Matthew Price, Matt Brown and Matt Gamble).

Andrew James
Admin

No problem. I thought it was pretty funny actually. After I breathed a sigh of relief. 😉

Matthew Fabb
Guest

After spending way too long tweaking the numbers, pushing them a little more up and a little more down, here’s what I got:
1 – Captain America: Civil War – $490 – $195
2 – Finding Dory – $360 – $100
3 – X-Men: Apocalypse – $245 – $115
4 – Jason Bourne – $240 – $80
5 – Ghostbusters – $230 – $75
6 – Suicide Squad – $205 – $80
7 – Star Trek Beyond – $195 – $65
8 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $194 – $70
9 – Independence Day: Resurgence – $175 – $60
10 – Warcaft – $165 – $50

Hopefully I can get them into http://boxofficetournament.com/ properly. After deleting a film I ended up with two #10 slots. I then deleted everything and now my top spot is #0 and it goes to #9 films.

As for my picks, I had Alice Through the Looking Glass, Angry Birds Movie, The Legend of Tarzan and The BGF all bouncing around in 10th place. Ultimately I went with the idea that all those millions of Warcraft fans will push that movie above the rest. This year beyond Box Office Mojo, I poked around a lot on YouTube to see how much trailers were viewed and the thumbs up or down a particular trailer has been getting. That said, this kind of thing works better for movies coming out in the beginning of the summer than the end of the summer.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

So my 10 picks are in the system, but when I go to my submission, I’ve ended up with both Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory as both my #1 pick and it then skips #6. Hopefully Andrew you can fix that up. Thanks.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Hey Matthew..will remedy this today. Email me andrew.robinson@gmanreviews.com please.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest
Matthew Fabb
Guest

Awesome, thank you!

Also seeing the other entries come in, I realize that I had one more day left. For some reason I was thinking the deadline Friday night, but it was the 29th and there was one more day left.

Darcy
Guest

Hey my submission maybe didn’t get quiet right

If possible could I get JB, ID and XMEB each an extra 10mil on their openings and 30 mil total and my #10 was gonna be Secret Life of Pets not Ice Age 5

If this could be amended that would be great

Im in Australia, so Lazy captain America been out 72 hours here and I haven’t even seen it as my yearly ace in the hole to win this bad boy

Anyway good luck to all and I hope there are some good summer films to numb the pain of looking like a fool om here

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

Hey Darcy,

I just sent you an email with some questions. Hopefully you see it quickly. Want to get this fixed ASAP.

GE Hale
Guest

Captain America: Civil War – 490 – 179
Finding Dory – 295 – 111
Suicide Squad – 260 – 110
X-Men: Apocalypse – 225 – 69
Star Trek Beyond – 180 – 58
Jason Bourne – 175 – 61
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – 168 – 58
The Secret Life of Pets – 150 – 45
Alice Through the Looking Glass – 140 – 39
The BFG – 135 – 31

Good luck all!

Nat Almirall
Guest

Also up on the site.

1. Captain America: Bilious Tussle — 520/215
2. Finding Dory — 350/120
3. X-Men: Acrapfulloflips — 270/110
4. Suicide Squid — 255/105
5. The Secret Life of Pets — 200/60
6. Independence Day: The Squeakquel — 185/40
7. Star Trek B3yond — 170/65
8. Ja5on Bourne — 165/80
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja 2urtles: Out of the Shadows — 150/75
10. Alice: Look at That Ass! — 145/50

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

I’ve finally submitted mine.

1 Captain America: Civil War 200/450
2 X-Men: Apocalypse 110/300
3 Suicide Squad 85/250
4 Finding Dory 95/200
5 Star Trek Beyond 60/185
6 Alice Through the Looking Glass 75/180
7 Ghostbusters (2016) 55/175
8 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the (…) 60/150
9 Independence Day: Resurgence 45/135
10 Warcraft 40/125

Nathan Austin
Guest

Thanks for the contest once again, it’s always a fun time!

1. CA: Civil War 204/516
2. Finding Dory 106/377
3. ID: Resurgence 108/339
4. Suicide Squad 118/321
5. X-Men: Apocalypse 113/239
6. The Secret Life of Pets 61/211
7. Ghostbusters 66/197
8. Jason Bourne 63/187
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 60/175
10. Star Trek Beyond 57/172

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Whew for that. Just got in under the wire. I’ll race y’all to last place!

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Thank f*ck. Wouldn’t be the same without you, my friend.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

should be locked down now as of midnight.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

Made a small update to the scoreboard…

http://www.boxofficetournament.com/mamo/scoreboard/1

will be fixing the point anomaly sometime midweek, so that guy at the top wont be there for long 🙂

Robert Reineke
Guest

Just for the record, I followed the letter of the posted rules.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Ye. The ‘problem’ will sort itself out. Only reason the system has you so high is because no film has actually earned any dollars yet. But will make it so unreleased films don’t give points.

Robert Reineke
Guest

FWIW I think a way to improve the point system is to go away from hard numbers and convert to percentages. Such as, being within 1% of opening weekend gross instead of within $1 million. I suggest 1%, 5%, and 10% being benchmarks.

Matthew Price
Guest

Yes and we have clarified those rules in time for you to change your entry.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Fwiw, I’m looking forward to my disqualification. Just consider my entry a test of the system.

I’ll have to make a screen capture just to document my dominance.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Here’s the Deadline article of the first weekend box office featuring Captain America: Civil War.

Early tracking has it as possible $178 to $188 million. A bit more under my estimate of $195 million. I guess despite many (except on this site) calling it the best Marvel movie to date, that people still tend to be a movie behind and with it being advertised as Avengers 2.5, people weren’t as enthusiastic with Avengers 2. That said, I’m curious it’s overwhelming possible word of mouth so far might push it at all higher either Saturday or Sunday.

Matthew Price
Guest

I suspect there will be a rebound back to closer to 200 – these early deadline estimates are notoriously flaky

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

I’m banking on this as I planned to nail the 200 mark

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

My picks, which are already proving my inability to forsee boxoffice:
1 Suicide Squad (381/140)
2 Captain America: Civil War (333/142)
3 Alice Through the Looking Glass (285/71)
4 Finding Dory (270/81)
5 Independence Day: Resurgence (255/100)
6 X-Men: Apocalypse (250/91)
7 Star Trek Beyond (215/65)
8 Jason Bourne (201/45)
9 The BFG (185/51)
10 Ghostbusters (180/75)

Fingerless Hobie
Guest

My picks:

1 Captain America: Civil War 440 183
2 Finding Dory 350 70
3 Independence Day: Resurgence 340 120
4 Jason Bourne 240 87
5 Star Trek Beyond 207 71
6 X-Men: Apocalypse 180 64
7 Ghostbusters (2016) 172 63
8 Ice Age: Collision Course 165 52
9 TMNT: Out of the Shadows 162 55
10 The Legend of Tarzan 157 50

Matthew Price
Guest

Tarzan, nice!

Domenic
Guest

Kudos to D”amico who guessed opening weekend of $182 mill.That kids is what we in the business call “nailing it”

Tony D'Amico
Guest

Thanks, i completely forgot to check earlier in the week to see how i did, I thought i was going to be under honestly.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Reviews of X-Men: Apocalypse are coming out now, with many calling it the worst X-men movie to date. Some going as far as they think it’s actually worse than Batman v Superman. If the crowd reaction is similar, then I seriously overestimated it’s box office for my list.

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

Me too, but if the MAMO! theory of ‘audience is one film behind’ holds true, then we should be fine.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

We’re all just waiting on the new Wolverine movie… because he’s the only X-Man I care about.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’ve no idea how the scoreboard is computing its numbers at this point. Albeit, I understand that it’s a work in progress.

GE Hale
Guest

Indeed. The scoreboard does seem stuck in some strange place. Perhaps something needs some jiggering?

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Did an update to the scoreboard. I reviewed some of the predictions, and based on the base rules it was right. Robert was getting ridiculously his scores because he picked films that weren’t going to make a lot of money and predicted opening of 1 million. So when the film makes less than a million it is within a million of the prediction; hence 16 points each. I honestly never considered that as a weird screwed up strategy for easy point bumps.

I’ve subsequently added Matt Brown’s rule of every film needing to have made at least 20 million.

So now films wont earn you any points if the film doesn’t gross 20 million at least. This means that if you picked 1 film like Robert you’ll get points for the other 9 (assuming those earn 20+) but not for that 1. This includes ranking points.

I will do an update tonight to fix the per player break down.

If anyone notes nay math that’s off with the scoreboard let me know, but the numbers seem fine to on the main scoreboard.

Robert Reineke
Guest

FWIW, my entry was mainly to test the system (and to greatly enjoy seeing myself at the top of the scoreboard) while pointing out loopholes that needed to be addressed. I fully expected to be disqualified from the final result because I was completely not playing by the spirit of the rules, only the letter of them.

Robert Reineke
Guest

“weird screwed up strategy?” Au contraire. The words you’re searching for is “effective strategy” that pointed out holes in the rules that needed fixing.

(And also guaranteed that I was going to get shut down before the contest ended. So, maybe not so effective.)

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I get you. And I appreciate the effort. I can see the elegance in gaming a system that doesn’t enforce the culture it wants from it’s contestants.

Thanks man. Was nice to see that though.

Nathan Austin
Guest

Only a couple of folks had Neighbors 2 on their list apparently for good reason, as it is estimated to make only $22-23 million in its first weekend (first one made $49)! So that film is DOA for the top ten. Angry Birds is estimated at around $39 million so it has a shot at getting in at the bottom of the top ten.

Voncaster
Guest

I had Neighbors 2 on my list, because every year the is a comedy or family film that has zero appeal to me and makes tons of money. My personal blindspot. I picked Neighbors 2 as that film. Swing and a miss.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I think Central Intelligence is going to be this year’s comedy breakout.

Robert Reineke
Guest

With Captain America: Civil War not showing much for legs, X-Men likely to be a disappointment compared to the previous film, and Alice bombing, is the Hollywood blockbuster model off? I think we’ve established that most people only see a couple of movies a year and that there really isn’t a movie season any more. Have Deadpool, Zootopia, and The Jungle Book pretty much sated people’s desire for movies before the summer season even opened? What’s Hollywood doing to increase the demand for films, other than opening more blockbusters?

Robert Reineke
Guest

Maybe but Memorial Day is an actual holiday so it should mean something.

But, we’ve already have had 5 movies make at least $750 million worldwide. There was only like 7 all of 2015. When you release 20 some blockbusters a year and only like 7 will really justify it, I think you’re looking at a problem with the business model. The growth in blockbuster franchises has outstripped the growth in attendance and revenues.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I would have missed high on the Turtles.

While I’m not going to say that we’re suffering from superhero fatigue I do think the signs are pointing to the genre no longer being in growth mode.

Raymond
Guest

It dawned on me that this question of “sequel-itis” may be proven if the next Fast and Furious movie underperforms. Its the one franchise that seems to grow with each instalment. If number 8 does lower business than 7 then we may have some tangible proof that fatigue may be setting in.

Also I really misjudged TMNT, that was a gut punch.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Is a prominent cast member going to die during the filming of F & F 8? If not, I think it will definitely make less. Just like the next Star Wars film and the Jurassic World sequel. Sometimes there are just outliers.

Finding Dory is perhaps a more interesting test case.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Starting to believe I made a mistake not putting Conjuring on my list.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Well apparently people were waiting for FINDING DORY. If the weekend estimate holds it’s going to climb past CIVIL WAR for total domestic gross.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

Holy shit… Finding Dory… I guess you were all right… there isn’t a sequel problem, there’s a shitty movie problem….

That’s kind of uplifting in a way.

Now where’s my Godzilla 2 and my Fury Road 2?

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

Dead last. That’s where I plan on staying on the rankings this year (Minus Robert’s joke account), I’ve also given up on actually seeing any of the Summer Blockbusters this year, until Ghostbusters & Star Trek come along.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Warcraft is starting to turn into a perfect example why domestic totals don’t really matter too much anymore.

While the film has only earned $38M domestically, the film has a worldwide total of $378 and is already considered to be the highest grossing video game adaptation ever.

Too bad worldwide totals don’t count in the Box Office Contest

Sean Kelly
Guest

Fingers crossed that my INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE nostalgia gamble was on the money. I felt some reassurance a few weeks ago when I bought the original film on blu-ray and the cashier asked me “Did you know they are making another one?”

Andrew James
Admin

Do you guys all know about this site?
http://fantasymovieleague.com/

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

I use it… I really dont know why.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I suppose Tarzan could squeak into the top 10,or at least be in the ballpark, and still be a money loser. That’s just poor planning.

Looks like DORY is going to blow by CIVIL WAR.

Raymond Loi
Guest

I readily admit my predictions so far have been horrid, but, fingers crossed, Secret Life of Pets is hovering near my opening weekly figure.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Clearly family friendly animation is one of the safest bets in Hollywood.

Darcy
Guest

Hey excited I got SLOP partly right, anyway to retrieve log in for box office tournament site? Should be getting exciting now.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I say give it a couple of years when it seems like an animated film starring talking animals is released every other week for stories of “animation fatigue”.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Here’s an early article from Deadline about the tracking for the new Ghostbusters. Latest projections have it at “$40M to $48M with a shot at $50M”.

With all the hatred and misogyny projected at this movie, I’m curious more than probably any other movie this summer in how it will do. I’m also rooting for it’s success despite only being mildly interested in the movie itself.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Having seen the film at an advanced screening earlier this week, I can confidently say that the film isn’t that bad and despite having some non-gender related issues is not at all deserving of the online vitriol.

Andrew James
Admin

Was planning on going tomorrow. But now I see Hunt for the Wilderpeople and the Frank Zappa documentary and the movie directed by Gavin Belson (Silicon Valley reference) are all opening this weekend. Decisions. Decisions.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’m regretting not entering as I had Ghostbusters pegged as performing like Mad Max. (I have it recorded too.) It’s performing almost exactly like MM.

Andrew Neil Robinson
Guest

I seem to have hit the Star Trek opening with a bullet. YAY BONUS

devolutionary
Guest

You hit it a bullseye.
It’s pretty telling that a 59.6 mill opening this summer is considered good. Beyond is noticeably down from Into Darkness ($70.2) and the 2009 reboot ($75.2).
http://fortune.com/2016/07/25/star-trek-beyond-box-office/

Robert Reineke
Guest

Those that were bullish on SUICIDE SQUAD should be happy with its opening weekend. I wish it was better, to me it’s a film caught between a director that wanted to make ESCAPE FROM NEW YORK and a studio that wanted GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY. But audiences seem to like it based on the B+ Cinemascore and it’s pulling in women, African Americans, and Hispanics all of whom have been under served this Summer. Heck the white guys are the marginal characters which for this genre is a definite break with the Hispanic character getting the redemption arc.

Plenty of problems with the film which are entirely evident in the editing yet I think there are some interesting elements to discuss.

Robert Reineke
Guest

To complete a thought, I really think SUICIDE SQUAD is aiming at the same demographic as the FAST AND THE FURIOUS franchise. Considering how white bread superhero movies have been, even the good ones, it represents an interesting development.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I finally get one of these OPENING WEEKEND bonuses. Nailed Suicide Squad’s OW within $5M

Matthew Fabb
Guest

So Suicide Squad started out with a projected $146 million but ended up at $135 million. Basically huge drop offs from bad word of mouth throughout the weekend as it didn’t deliver the movie that the trailers had advertised. Congrats on the marketing team for making the trailers and commercials make the film so much lighter and more fun than the movie actually was. As Variety put it: “‘Suicide Squad’ Is a Hit, But DC Needs to Start Making Better Movie”. Now the question is how big will the drop be for this movie next weekend.

Also will Wonder Woman be any good or will it suffer a similar fate? A few articles have tried to figure out who exactly wrote the script for that movie. Geoff Johns and Allen Heinberg are credited for the script with a story by Zack Snyder and Allen Heinberg. However, there are apparently rumors that a huge number of script writers were given a shot at the script and the official credits mention above were kept secret until just before this years San Diego Comic Con. Perhaps that worked out, but still have to wonder if it’s once again a case of too many cooks in the kitchen with no one taking lead on the creative direction the movie needs to go in.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Question to the Matt’s of MAMO? On the contest scoreboard both the open and gross points are being added together at each level.

Example here’s the rules for actual gross:
“B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.
C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.
D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.”

Now what the system is currently doing is if you are within 5 million of actual gross you are getting 16 points, so adding up B, C and D together. I thought in the past that it meant you were only getting 10 points. It was leveling up to larger points, instead of adding each one of them together.

As the rules also state:
“A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.”

Matthew Fabb
Guest

So TIFF is over and therefore so is this contest. I think GE Hale won, but as I mentioned above, it’s hard to tell as the scores are all messed up.

GE Hale has 124 points, but he’s gotten 16 points four times for opening weekend points. I think that should be 10 points, as there is a max of 10 available points for opening weekends. So that means removing 24 points bringing him down to 100 points, which puts several other people ahead of him.

However, this mistake is across the board with both opening weekends and total gross, so chances are everyone else is also below 100 points.

wpDiscuz