Mamo 400: 4 FAST(est to) 4 HUNDRED (million)

Mamo!

MAMO! The show about movies and popular culture strides confidently into the summer of 2015 at the domestic box office with our picks for the top ten grossing films of the season. We haven’t seen any of ’em! We talk about all of ’em! And kick it open to YOU to sound off in the comments below with your entries for the Mamo Summer Box Office Contest!

ENTRIES ARE NOW CLOSED. The leaderboard can be found here:

http://bit.ly/SBO2015

Rules:

THE SUMMER STARTS ON MAY 1 AND ENDS ON AUGUST 31, in terms of movies you can pick. Please work by domestic release dates only and with domestic grosses only. Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over.

Update: Once entries are online they are final. No updates or amendments allowed.

Players will submit the following:

Top ten films, in order of total grosses. Also total gross $ amount and opening weekend gross $ amount. So as an example, submissions should look like this:

1. Kind Hearts and Coronets, $402 million, $175 million
2. The Ruling Class, $375 million, $150 million

Points awarded for:

A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.

B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.

C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.

D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.

E. 10 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $1 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

F. 5 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $5 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

G. 1 Bonus Point for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $10 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross AND within $1 million of the opening weekend gross.

F. For the purposes of calculating weekends – Films opening on a Wednesday are counted until the first Sunday they are released. Films opening on Memorial Day weekend are counted until the following Monday. Films opening the week of July 4 are counted from whenever they open in that week until the first Sunday of their release. Example – Spiderman opens on Tuesday, July 3. Your guess for weekend gross would actually be its 6 day total, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Matthew Price
Guest

Here’s my picks:

Avengers 2: Age of Ultron 720, 220
Minions 310, 75
Inside Out 240, 70
Mission Impossible Rogue Nation 220, 60
Ant Man 210, 70
Ted 2 195, 70
Tomorrowland 180, 55
Mad Max: Fury Road 160, 50
Fantastic Four 150, 50
Jurassic World 135, 40

Raymond
Guest

(Formerly MrRTJL): My tactic this year is to submit as soon as possible because I feel the longer I leave it, the more speculation is going to muddle with just going with my gut/guessing. And in previous years I poured over Box Office Mojo and I was off anyway.
Thanks Mamo and congrats on hitting 400.

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $210/$560
2. Minions – $75/$350
3. Inside Out – $66/$230
4. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation – $60/$220
5. Jurassic World – $68/$210
6. Tomorrowland – $85/$200
7. Terminator Genisys – $75/$190
8. Fantastic Four – $55/$185
9. Ant-Man – $75/$180
10. Pixels – $55/$170

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron, $707 million, $264 million
2. Minions, $368 million, $111 million
3. Inside Out, $250 million, $71 million
4. Jurassic World, $233 million, $108 million
5. Ant-Man, $222 million, $93 million
6. Mad Max: Fury Road, $212 million, $71 million
7. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, $211 million, $69 million
8. Terminator Genisys, $170 million, $76 million
9. Ted 2, $160 million, $54 million
10. Fantastic Four, $150 million, $58 million

Philip Poirot
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – 218/576
2. Minions – 95/335
3. Jurassic World – 93/310
4. Ant-Man – 85/228
5. Inside Out – 65/215
6. MI: Rogue Nation – 82/206
7. Ted 2 – 68/170
8. Fant4stic – 45/140
9. Terminator Genisys – 65/125 (*5 day)
10. Mad Max – 38/125

Philip Poirot
Guest

My two cents:
* Dark Horses of the contest – Nation Lampoon’s Vacation, Ricki and the Flash (Rock Star Meryl Streep), Masterminds (True Crime Heist Comedy starring Galifianakis and Kristen Wiig) and Southpaw (Gyllenhaal boxing).
* Jurassic Park 3 (adjusted $265m) + theme park setting + military action + Chris Pratt + 2nd biggest trailer views over Star Wars and Avengers = 300+ million. Plus it’ll skew heavier in female demographic.
* I don’t think Mission Impossible opens bigger than Skyfall (88).
* Tomorrowland should be in between other Disney fares – Prince of Persia (90) and Pirates of the Caribbean (305) but I don’t know where. Probably Closer to Tron Legacy (172).
* Pan and Pixels should be the biggest summer bombs. Although Pixels should be really big overseas. Man from Uncle is sandwiched in between MI and James Bond. It’ll be completely overlooked.

Thank you so very much for organizing the contest again.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Once again we agree on the top 10. Good luck, champ.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Thanks. I thought the same thing and I liked your numbers better. Good luck to you too.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Congrats on the milestone guys! 400 shows and its worked out better than pretty well so far.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

At the moment, I’m prudently waiting to see what will happen in terms of marketing. But I think FURY ROAD is such a niche-blockbuster. It will do well, but not crazy money, probably less than $150M.

Also, having seen the first 10 minutes of Pixar’s INSIDE OUT, I believe it will very much resonate with both parents, children and parents without children, I believe it will easily surpass UP’s $293M. I’m planning on betting the farm on this one, as I do not believe that MINIONS will be the disaster that was PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR, but I also don’t think it’s going to be anywhere near a $300M hit. I expect Pixar to come in at #2 underneath AVENGERS2, which Brown is probably right using the DARK KNIGHT RISES model to assess.

I also expect ANT MAN to get a lackluster response (the first sign of Marvel-Fatigue?) Not a disaster, just not a success.

I have yet to ever pick the comedy that will be a major success in the summer, I wonder if it will be TED2 or TRAINWRECK…I expect the latter.

Dan Gorman
Guest

I feel with MINIONS what I felt last year with TRAIN/DRAGON 2.

I saw a lot of people skewing super high with their numbers and in my gut just wasn’t feeling it. I know that people love the Minions and that they’re generally considered ‘the best part of those movies’ but I have a feeling it will under-perform expectations. I’m with Kurt on that prediction.

Matthew Price
Guest

I can’t figure out thing one about that franchise – 300 is about 20% shy of what DM2 did last year, but you could absolutely be right. That said, HTTYD2 was a bit of a downer which I think explains in part what didn’t click for audiences (and why they subsequently drove huge numbers for Guardians). I don’t think there’s much chance of Minions being anything other than funny sunny funtime sunshine.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

You should create a shampoo titled “funny sunny funtime sunshine.”

Jandy Hardesty
Admin

Is this where I vote for Jupiter Ascending?

No?

Okay.

Matthew Price
Guest

Here’s the complete list of eligible movies:

• Avengers: Age of Ultron (BV) – 5/1
• Far from Men (Trib.) – 5/1
• Far from the Madding Crowd (FoxS) – 5/1
• Hyena (Trib.) – 5/1
• Ride (2015) (Scre.) – 5/1
• She’s Funny That Way (CE) – 5/1
• Welcome to Me (Alc) – 5/1
• I Am Big Bird (Trib.) – 5/6
• The Seven Five (IFC) – 5/7
• 5 Flights Up (Focus) – 5/8
• Before I Wake (Rela.) – 5/8
• The D Train (IFC) – 5/8
• Hot Pursuit (WB) – 5/8
• In the Name of my Daughter (Cohen) – 5/8
• Maggie (RAtt.) – 5/8
• Noble (Asp.) – 5/8
• Saint Laurent (SPC) – 5/8
• Skin Trade (Magn.) – 5/8
• Animals (2015) (Osci.) – 5/15
• The Connection (Drft.) – 5/15
• Good Kill (IFC) – 5/15
• I’ll See You In My Dreams (BST) – 5/15
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WB) – 5/15
• Pitch Perfect 2 (Uni.) – 5/15
• Set Fire to the Stars (Strand) – 5/15
• Where Hope Grows (RAtt.) – 5/15
• Aloft (SPC) – 5/22
• The Farewell Party (Gold.) – 5/22
• Love At First Sight (Strand) – 5/22
• Poltergeist (2015) (Fox) – 5/22
• Sunshine Superman (Magn.) – 5/22
• Tomorrowland (BV) – 5/22
• When Marnie Was There (GK) – 5/22
• Aloha (Sony) – 5/29
• Hillsong – Let Hope Rise (Rela.) – 5/29
• San Andreas (WB) – 5/29
• Pigeon (Magn.) – 6/3
• Entourage (WB) – 6/5
• Gloria (2015) (PH) – 6/5
• How to Save Us (PDF) – 6/5
• Hungry Hearts (IFC) – 6/5
• Insidious Chapter 3 (Focus) – 6/5
• Love & Mercy (RAtt.) – 6/5
• Spy (Fox) – 6/5
• Jurassic World (Uni.) – 6/12
• Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (FoxS) – 6/12
• The Tribe (Drft.) – 6/17
• Dope (ORF) – 6/19
• Infinitely Polar Bear (SPC) – 6/19
• Inside Out (BV) – 6/19
• Manglehorn (IFC) – 6/19
• The Transporter Refueled (EC) – 6/19
• Max (2015) (WB) – 6/26
• The Outskirts (CE) – 6/26
• Ted 2 (Uni.) – 6/26
• Magic Mike XXL (WB) – 7/1
• Terminator: Genisys (Par.) – 7/1
• The Bronze (Rela.) – 7/10
• Do I Sound Gay? (IFC) – 7/10
• The Gallows (WB (NL)) – 7/10
• Minions (Uni.) – 7/10
• Self/Less (Focus) – 7/10
• Ant-Man (BV) – 7/17
• The Look of Silence (Drft.) – 7/17
• Mr. Holmes (RAtt.) – 7/17
• Trainwreck (Uni.) – 7/17
• Irrational Man (SPC) – 7/24
• Pan (WB) – 7/24
• Paper Towns (Fox) – 7/24
• Pixels (Sony) – 7/24
• The Vatican Tapes (LGF) – 7/24
• Beyond the Brick: A LEGO Brickumentary (RTWC) – 7/31
• The Gift (2015) (STX) – 7/31
• Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (Par.) – 7/31
• Southpaw (Wein.) – 7/31
• Vacation (WB (NL)) – 7/31
• Fantastic Four (Fox) – 8/7
• Masterminds (Rela.) – 8/7
• Ricki and the Flash (TriS) – 8/7
• The Man From U.N.C.L.E. (WB) – 8/14
• Straight Outta Compton (Uni.) – 8/14
• Underdogs (2014) (Wein.) – 8/14
• Criminal (2015) (LG/S) – 8/21
• Me Before You (WB) – 8/21
• Sinister 2 (Focus) – 8/21
• Hitman: Agent 47 (Fox) – 8/28
• Regression (W/Dim.) – 8/28
• War Room (TriS) – 8/28

Robert Reineke
Guest

Will I get disqualified if I pull out the minimalist strategy I outlined last year?

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

You should definitely do it just to show the loophole in the system. But no, we operate on the SPIRIT of the law as much as the letter. 🙂

Matthew Price
Guest

short answer is yes – also please don’t do it, the spreadsheet is somewhat complex as it is and I want everyone to enjoy the friendly competition. Or put another way, any movie that fails to gross a minimum of $50 million by the end of the contest is automatically ineligible to contribute points to your total 🙂

Robert Reineke
Guest

I wasn’t planning on it, otherwise I wouldn’t have brought it up last year, but it’s not spelled out clearly above that there are rules against it either. And I haven’t listened to the show yet.

It seemed like an option at the bottom instead of trying to figure out what Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL, Fantastic Four, or Terminator Genisys are going to make.

GE Hale
Guest

That makes updating the spreadsheet a little easier. I’ll wait until May 1st to input everyone’s picks to avoid confusion in case people make changes, but the spreadsheet will definitely make a return this year.

Matthew Price
Guest

YEEESSSSSSS!!!!

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

20+ Comments in under 24 hours! This thread is going to be its usual MONSTER self.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Here’s mine:

Film, Opening Weekend, Final
1. The Avengers: Age of Ultron $215, $567
2. Minions $85, $360
3. Inside Out $70, $245
4. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation $75, $210
5. Ted 2 $60, $210
6. Ant-Man $85, $198
7. Jurassic World $70, $180
8. Mad Max: Fury Road $55, $175
9. Spy $40, $160
10. Tomorrowland $47, $143

Yeah, I’m picking Spy to be the “sleeper” comedy of the summer. Because early reviews have been very good and I think it’s a premise that will play well for audience identification.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Do I remember the 400th episode of Simpsons? Nope, but I’m not even sure if I saw it.

Do I remember what was the 200th episode of MAMO? Yup, because it was strangely enough also the summer box office contest and you ask people to record a small bit of what they thought the #1 movie would be that year. It was a bit of a stunt, but was still quite enjoyable.

Anyways, congrats on 400th episode and hope you guys continue to keep it going as it remains a wonderful podcast.

This year I’m going to try to not wait until the last minute to put together my list. As I have a newborn on the way and doubt I will be able to pay any attention to this once once she is born.

As for what the Avengers 2 will make, I’m not sure what number I will pick yet, but I’m with Matthew Price that it has not peaked. I think the movie will be the pop culture event the first one was, if not more. I’m getting to the age where I know a number of other couples with kids and who don’t get a chance to go out much and Avengers 2 seems to be the one movie everyone is set on seeing this summer, if nothing else. Also I’m betting on Joss Whedon bringing the goods and making another movie with some great moments that people love and want to go see and then go see again.

Courtney Small
Guest

Congrats on hitting 400 episodes!! Looking forward to following you guys to episode 500 and beyond.

Here are my selections (total/opening):
The Avengers – $673 / 223
Inside Out – $267 / 64
Mission Impossible – $252 / 72
Minions – $240 / 57
Tomorrowland – $235 / 56
Jurassic World – $232/ 76
Ted 2 – $221/ 62
Fantastic 4 – $191 / 65
Ant-Man – $185 / 64
Spy – $150 / 36

Matt Gamble
Guest

Avengers is going to be on an insane amount of screens. I doubt it will hit 5K but I’ll be stunned if it isn’t above 4500. April is absolutely gutted due to avoidance of it, and even May is pretty much entirely counter programming the two weeks following it. It’s being given a wide berth because everyone is scared shitless of what it is going to do. The last one crushed it’s opening weekend tracking by almost $60 million and destroyed the opening weekend record by $38 million. I mean, holy fuck balls.

So Brown, your projection is probably dead on the nose.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Age of Ultron Update:: The Theater Count for Age of Ultron is 4200. Avengers(2012) had a theater count of 4349 with a per theater avg. of $47,698. The reduced theater count (149) would amount to $7.1m gross with the same per theater avg. At this point I highly doubt the $250m+ opening predictions that some favored.

Andrew Parker
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $205/$690
2. Minions – $120/$450
3. Jurassic World – $130/$330
4. Tomorrowland – $80/$270
5. Inside Out – $75/$265
6. Ted 2 – $90/$210
7. Ant-Man – $85/$200
8. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation – $77/$190
9. Terminator: Genisys – $95/$189
10. Vacation – $45/$170

Begley
Guest

Love the podcast

1. The Avengers: Age of Ultron $220, $600
2. Minions $85, $360
3. Jurassic World $85, $250
4. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation $75, $245
5. Ted 2 $68, $230
6. Ant-Man $85, $220
7. Inside Out $60, $215
8. Fantastic 4 $60, $180
9. Terminator: Genisys $70, $180
10. Spy $42, $160

Sean Kelly
Guest

Here goes nothing:
1) The Avengers: Age of Ultron, $700M, $250M
2) Minions, $400M, $85M
3) Inside Out, $270M, $84M
4) Pan, $240M, $69M
5) Fantastic Four, $233M, $90M
6) Jurassic World, $210M, $75M
7) Mad Max: Fury Road, $200M, $92M
8) Pixels, $195M, $70M
9) Ant-Man, $191M, $65M
10) Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, $185M, $57M

Sean Kelly
Guest

Updated list to remove PAN (didn’t put too much thought in the film I replaced it with, so it might cost me):
1) The Avengers: Age of Ultron, $700M, $250M
2) Minions, $400M, $85M
3) Inside Out, $270M, $84M
4) Fantastic Four, $233M, $90M
5) Jurassic World, $210M, $75M
6) Mad Max: Fury Road, $200M, $92M
7) Pixels, $195M, $70M
8) Ant-Man, $191M, $65M
9) Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, $185M, $57M
10) Terminator: Genisys, $115, $30M

ED: Updates not permitted – MB

Matthew Price
Guest

Hey Sean, sorry. You can’t “update your list”. Any entries are final, once your entry is posted that’s it, that’s your picks. Anyone who has a movie move off like this takes a zero, thems the breaks.

Rick
Guest

Not gonna wait for the websites this time diving right in

(1.) Furious 7 ∞, ∞
(2.) 1. The Avengers: Age of Ultron 250, 600
(3.) 2. Minions 90 / 425
(4.) 3. Inside Out 85 / 380
(5.) 4. Jurassic World 95 / 250
(6.) 5. MI 5 75 / 200
(7.) 6. Mad Max Fury Road 80 / 195
(8.) 7. Ted 2 70 / 180
(9.) 8. Tomorrowland 65 / 170
(10.) 9. Ant Man 65 / 165
(10.) 10. Fantastic Four 80 / 155

JamieNZ
Guest

1. Avengers  650/215

2. Minions  300/100

3. Mission Impossible  290/100

4. Ant Man  250/80

5. Inside Out  230/65

6. Fantastic 4  225/80

7. Jurassic World  205/65

8. Mad Max  170/75

9. Pan  150/60

10. Magic Mike  135/45

Dave Nandes
Guest

Can’t believe you guys have been in my ears for somewhere between 300 and 400 hours.

Predictions to come. I’ve been holding off even thinking about summer movies as our new miniature sized Nandes is going to throw a wrench into our usual routine of 4+ movies a month from May-Sep.

The struggle is real.

Sameer Vasta
Guest

In proof that I have no clue what I’m doing, here’s my list:

1: Avengers 2: Age of Ultron (685/215)
2: Minions (340/110)
3: Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation (325/90)
4: Jurassic World (300/85)
5: Inside Out (265/65)
6: Tomorrowland (250/60)
7: Ted 2 (200/55)
8: Ant-Man (185/65)
9: Fant4stic (155/55)
10: Mad Max: Fury Road (145/40)

Also, as a listener since episode 2, I’m positively giddy you’ve made it to 400. I audibly squealed with joy when I saw the podcast come in, and L thought I was really strange for being so excited. Which, I guess, is true — and I’m okay with that.

Jay Steneker
Guest

And my hat into the ring :

Avengers 2: Age of Ultron 515/220
Minions 330/105
Inside Out 260/90
Mission:Impossible 5 248/95
Ant Man 235/82
Tomorrowland 219/78
Jurassic World 204/75
Fantastic 4 190/70
Mad Max Fury Road 169/65
Pitch Perfect 2 152/54

Alex
Guest

Here’s my top 10

1. Avengers:Age of Ultron – $466 million, $174 million
2. Minions: $327 million, $89 million
3. Mission Impossible 5: $280 million, $82 million
4. Spy: $264 million; $62 million
5. Inside out: $248 million; $70 million
6. Mad max fury road:$245 million; $90 million
7. Pixels $225 million; $64 million
8. Ant Man: $221 milion; $83 million
9. Jurassic World: $195 million, $64 million
10. Ted 2: $164 million, $64 million

Fingerless Hobie
Guest

Avengers: Age of Ultron 635M 220M
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation 280M 105M
Minions 267M 88M
Jurassic WOrld 235M 85M
Tomorrowland 204M 85M
Ant-Man 180M 67M
Fanatastic Four 175M 45M
Mad Max: Fury Road 165M 65M
Entourage 155M 65M
Terminator 135M 55M

Dave Nandes
Guest

As per usual, I expect to start strong and finish weak.

Avengers 2: Age of Ultron 701, 219.9
Minions 337.8, 91.8
Inside Out 254.7, 71.1
Mission Impossible Rogue Nation 237.1, 79.5
Jurassic World 229.9, 81.6
Tomorrowland 210, 66.8
Ant Man 207, 77.5
Ted 2 183.5, 47
Spy 183.5, 47
Mad Max: Fury Road 178.3, 64.3

Philip Poirot
Guest

With your point system entry, if you miss a big 5 pt. BONUS for .1m and if that loses you the competition, you’ll be hitting your head on the wall. 😉

Dave Nandes
Guest

I’ll be more pissed if reversing the order of Ted 2 and Spy loses it for me

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

If the European reviews of Avengers2 are accurate (i.e. The IronMan2 of Avengers Movies), be prepared to lower your crazy Total Gross numbers (Opening Weekend should probably remain the same, however…)

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I would like to congratulate all of those you picked Pan in their lists for suffering the same failing I did last year with Jupiter Ascending.

This year I’m using math… I created a spreadsheet with my weekend estimates and then times it by 1.2 to allow for money earned Mon – Thur… because who goes to the movies in the week?

Anyways here’s my throw in into this game… and hoping for a better run in than last year.

PPS. Spy was my #11 (and I’m 50/50 on which will take that 10 spot)

Name/Open/Total
1. Avengers 2 / $250M / $648M
2. Inside Out / $120M / $294M
3. Ant-Man / $120M / $246M
4. MI5 / $85M / $186M
5. Minions / $80M / $174M
6. Tommorowland / $80M / $150M
7. Mad Max / $65M / $134M
8. Fantastic Four / $60M / $122.4M
9. Jurrassic World / $60M / $117.6M
10. The Man from UNCLE / $50M / $108M

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Berate me for picking San Andreas, but here is my skin in the game: $Domestic Gross ($Opening)

1. Avengers 2: – $529 ($201)
2. Inside out: $275 ($78)
3. Minions: $273 ($87)
4. Jurassic 4: $243 ($103)
5. Tomorrowland: $227 ($94)
6. Mission Impossible 5: $196 ($75)
7. Fantastic Four: $158 ($68)
8. Ted 2: $151 ($65)
9. San Andreas: $141 ($58)
10. Fury Road: $134 ($55)

Andrew Robinson
Guest

1. I sort of have this feeling that even though people like to say that everyone loved the Despicable Me films just because of the minions I feel if you make a movie just of that it won’t come close to what it made outside of those characters… I really don’t believe they’ll hit the same marks that DM2 did.

2. I’m slightly disapointed that your “prove your human” part on this comment system has text and numbers and doesn’t allow me to enter text answers… feels like a missed opportunity to make me laugh uncontrollably.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Wow, 3 gambles! No Ant-Man, Tomorrowland inclusion, and San Andreas too. Bold, bro. But like I say every year, if not me, I want it to be you who takes the victory, so good luck.

Goon
Guest

1.Avengers: Age of Ultron 700, 210
2.Minions 340, 80
3.Tomorrowland 300, 65
4.Inside Out, 250, 70
5.Ant Man, 245, 75
6.Mission Impossible Rogue Nation, 240, 70
7.Jurassic World, 200, 90
8.Ted 2, 180, 60
9.Pixels, 160, 55
10.Fantastic Four, 150, 65

Tony D'Amico
Guest

Congrats on 400 guys, here is my entry.

1. Avengers:Age of Ultron- $605/$215
2. Minions- $305/$100
3. Inside Out- 290/$95
4. Jurassic World- $265/$80
5. Tomorrowland- $225/$70
6. Ant-Man- $220/$75
7. Mission Impossible:Rogue Nation- $200/$85
8. Fantastic 4- $160/$75
9. Ted 2- $155/$70
10.Mad Max:Fury Road- $150/$65

Benji
Guest

Here go my 2 cents,
1. The Avengers: Age of Ultron $570/$230
2. Minions $350/$80
3. Inside Out $285/$75
4. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation $225/$65
5. Jurassic World $210/$90
6. Tomorrowland $190/$60
7. Ted 2 $185/$60
8. Ant-Man $170/$65
9. Spy $160/$45
10. Fantastic Four $145/$50

heartrendingly I had Fanta4 and Mad Max do the same overall gross but I think that Fanta4 will win out in the end. So I had to leave Max off the list.

GE Hale
Guest

I will go with:
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $710 ($190)
2. Minions – $280 ($91)
3. Jurassic World – $260 ($130)
4. Inside Out – $230 ($73)
5. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation – $210 ($70)
6. Ant-Man – $195 ($90)
7. Ted 2 – $190 ($62)
8. Tomorrowland – $165 ($75)
9. San Andreas – $160 ($52)
10. Fantastic Four – $150 ($50)

Colin the dude
Guest

Okay, let’s get this in on time:
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $556 ($215)
2. Minions – $312 ($96)
3. Inside Out – $290 ($73)
4. Jurassic World – $268 ($110)
5. Tomorrowland – $215 ($70)
6. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation – $188 ($62)
7. Ant-Man – $178 ($65)
8. Ted 2 – $145 ($53)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road – $140 ($53)
10. Straight Outta Compton – $136 ($45)

I’m not certain that Straight Outta Compton will be a breakout hit but do I think the potential for a big audience is there and I think the trailer sells it well to that audience. That’s the one wild card for me.

Matthew Price
Guest

Age of Ultron weekend prediction

Andrew Robinson
Guest

#3 in the box office… but #1 in our hearts

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Alright so I’m posting all of the Sunset Rising Entries under one post. This way I won’t have to make multiple posts.

Thomas Wishloff
1.) Avengers: Age d’Or (200/590)
2.) Inside Out (65/300)
3.) Minions (70/280)
4.) Jurassic World (105/260)
5.) Ant-Man (85/240)
6.) Mission Impossible: Three Colours Rouge (75/215)
7.) Fantastic Four (65/175)
8.) Pitch Perfect Dos (Featuring the Green Bay Packers) (60/160)
9.) Ted 2 (60/150)
10.) Trainwreck (40/140)

Richard “Fox” Bagan
1.) Avengers: Age of Ultron (205/700)
2.) Ant-Man (125/350)
3.) Minions (78/280)
4.) Mission Impossible: Rouge Nation (85/275)
5.) Inside Out (70/260)
6.) Jurassic World (90/225)
7.) Ted 2 (82/220)
8.) Fantastic Four (90/200)
9.) Terminator Genisys (87/180)
10.) Spy (57/170)

Good luck to all, and sorry that this is being entered so late.

David Brook
Guest

There were only 4 people in my Avengers screening tonight, but don’t let that be an indicator of its success (I did see it at 5pm on a Wednesday which isn’t a popular slot). The film was loads of fun – almost equal to the first in my opinion although the plotting isn’t very strong and the dialogue isn’t quite as sharp. I had a blast though and I imagine most punters will too, so I’m sure this will rake it in unless Furious 7 stole a bit of its potential thunder.

Darcy S. McCallum
Guest

1 AVENGERS $218m/$584m
2 MINIONS $89m/$394m
3 JURASSIC WORLD $102m/$274m
4 INSIDE OUT $65m/$214m
5 MI:5 $82m/$202m
6 TOMORROWLAND $76m/$198m
7 MAGICMIKE XXL $68m/$184m
8 TED 2 $70m/$179m
9 MADMAX 4 $58m/$173m
10 ANTMAN $69m/$169m

Darwin
Guest

This is my 3rd Summer participating and in the past I did pretty well. But this year I’m not feeling too confident. I had trouble finding 10 movies to back. I’m predicting another underwhelming box office this summer.
The Only thing I’m excited about this Summer is Furious Max.

Avengers: 600, 210
Minions: 300, 110
Inside Out: 250, 85
Jurassic Park: 200, 93
M:I:R:N: 185, 68
Ted II: 175, 70
Spy: 150, 50
Ant Man: 140, 55
Furious Max: 130, 51
Tomorrow Land: 125, 40

Darcy
Guest

saw Avengers 48hours ago, waited till Tuesday cause wasnt crazy to see it, just get points so I could see Mad Max first day for free as I dont see many films during the aussie winter here, hey I live in Cairns so always warm and always given the snub for arthouse films even though we have flourishing film festivals, Avengers was poor for me, I ridiculous Dark Knight rip off villan, a story based around the contracts of its stars in the roles of ‘Avengers’ CGI not that fab, good to watch for some rounded heroes in Hulk Iron Man & to some extend Hulk but shows thart the best thing of whole Marvel universe is Huddlestone’s protrail of Lockie, I’m done, wasted 3 hours catching up with Thor2 & Cap2, this should be bigger weekend like TDKR but less total and beginning of downturn of franchise until IM replacement and some good casting and direction comes back in, I feel some franchises to come will make 2015 theres even if avengers makes twice the money cause its pretty free to go for all of May, why does the humor have to be pop culture/modern-sayings, why can’t it be a bit more like the humor in other recent Whedon projects like Cabin in the Woods or Much Ado About Nothing, dont know how this script got thru, makes me think those transformers blokes did the script, wait would anyone know who would have done this script, not mythology building, FYI the only easter egg ive stayed for was X-Men last year and I think that’s far superior, too many similar skills in the Marvel world atm, I think there is a opening now for Suoerman vs Batman to be something but it will be pised in by lazy writers and director, i’d say its a bit better than the very poor Spidy 2 but not as good as another lackluster but well made middling sequel from last year, Dawn of the Apes, what do Marvel fans out there not expect from the next chapter of marvel universe, also I caught up with GOTG it was very middling, I’d rather watch the more flippent Fifth Element but it had good casting and production value, maybe I wont fell as ripped out if I just watch future Marvel films of a DVD from the library..

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

why does the humor have to be pop culture/modern-sayings

I’ve been saying this since Guardians last August.

David Brook
Guest

I totally disagree I thought it was a blast.

As for your humour comment though, which jokes were related to ‘pop culture/modern sayings’? I never got that at all from these films and it’s something that usually pisses me off.

Darcy
Guest

as filmspotting would say, no stakes, also why are there so many ordinary add on characters to the franchise, i’m far more interested in a anti-villian like Lockie then some guy with a bow and arrow or a franchise that took till its 10/11th film to introduce a women with a superpower, I think Marvel has good advertising and backing from Disney but at least as being as lasting piece of good comic-film adapation I think DC have it there for the taking but will bottle it cause they are a weak creative team behind there films too.

David Brook
Guest

I found Ultron a much stronger villain than Loki personally although I’d agree that the film doesn’t do a very good job of selling his threat until the final third. The stakes at that stage are pretty high though I’d argue. I don’t think it’s as well written as the first film – the storytelling is a bit muddled and the dialogue not quite as sharp, but the pacing and presentation was spot on for me so it worked wonders as a piece of entertainment and spectacle, which is what I want most out of a blockbuster really.

Nathan
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $524/$220
2. Jurassic World – $291/$95
3. Minions – $276/$79
4. Inside/Out – $235/$66
5. Ant-Man – $221/$84
6. MI: Rogue Nation – $194/$57
7. Tomorrowland – $168/$52
8. Fantastic Four – $165/$60
9. Ted 2 – $162/$57
10. Vacation – $151/$41
Thanks for having the contest once again this summer!

antho42
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $464/$220
2. Jurassic World – $291/$95
3. Minions – $276/$79
4. Inside/Out – $235/$66
5. Ant-Man – $221/$84
6. MI: Rogue Nation – $194/$57
7. Ted 2 – $168/$52
8. Mad Max – $165/$60
9. Ted 2 – $162/$57
10. Fantastic Four – $121/$41

antho42
Guest

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – $464/$220
2. Jurassic World – $291/$95
3. Minions – $276/$79
4. Mission Impossible–Rogue Nation – $250/$70
5. Ted 2 – $235/$66
6. Inside Out – $221/$84
7. Ant Man – $168/$52
8. Mad Max – $165/$60
9. Tomorrowland – $152/$57
10. Fantastic Four – $121/$41

Matthew Price
Guest

Hi – sorry, this second entry does not count. We laid this out in the show and above, you can’t amend your entry to the contest.

GE Hale
Guest

Since the first entry seems a mistake as Ted 2 is repeated twice (and was posted only 5 minutes before the second), I put the second entry into the spreadsheet.

But if the officials want to overrule me and stick to the strict interpretation of the rules, I can change that and use the first post leaving the 9th selection blank, or move the 10th selection into 9th place and leave 10 blank.

Nathan
Guest

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, apparently.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Umm.. He has a double entry for Ted2 (7th & 9th place)!

devolutionary
Guest

Alright, I’ll bite even though I’m generally way off on these pools.
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron – 225$ / $550
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation: $190 / $415
3. Jurassic World: $210 / $400
4. Minions: $160 / $325
5. Mad Max: Fury Road: – $150 / $280
6. Terminator: Genisys: $75 / $245
7. Ant Man: $75 / $225
8. Magic Mike XXL: – $60 / $180
9. Tomorrowland: $60 / $160
10. Ted 2: $45 / $150

Katarina g
Guest

My numbers are mostly made up. I just wanted to mix it up a little, so I eliminated the films that might do well but that I personally will think are garbage, like Ted 2. Also, I had to google about half the films that appear on most people’s lists because I’d never heard of them. This was a fun experience! I learned several things!

1. Avengers 2: Age of Ultron: 215 / 590
2. Jurassic World: 105 / 320
3. Minions: 80 / 289
4. Inside/Out: 75 / 276
5. Ant-Man: 70 / 190
6. Magic Mike XXL: 50 / 160
7. Mad Max: Fury Road: 50 / 138
8. Trainwreck: 45 / 131
9. Pitch Perfect 2: 35 / 125
10. San Andreas 48 / 115

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Yea! I have a San Andreas buddy. You, GE Hale and me stand to make a killing bettin’ on The Rock.

Katarina g
Guest

I believe in The Rock!!!

GE Hale
Guest

The Rock is due.

I think positions 1-2-3 for the contest are already sewn up now and it is just a race between the three of us.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

And we were right. Feel the BONUS POINTS LOVE…

Philip Poirot
Guest

I find it funny that all of our Age of Ultron numbers are in between the wide range created by the first two entries [ Matt & Matt – 450 and 720].

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Well, $450 and $720 million are really two extremes for Avengers 2. It’s hard to see it perform under or over those extremes. Or perhaps we will be all shown to be wrong and one of them will get it exactly right, as over the years of this contest we have seen movies do the complete unexpected one way or another.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Once again, just under the deadline, here are my picks:

1) Avengers: Age of Ultron – $590 – $220
2) Minions – $330 – $105
3) Jurrasic World – $270 – $105
4) Inside Out – $230 – $66
5) Mission Impossible – Rogue Nation – $220 – $80
6) Tomorrowland – $198 – $70
7) Ant Man – $195 – $70
8) Ted 2 – $190 – $65
9) Terminator Genisys – $170 – $80
10) Mad Max – $160 – $50

With a newborn who is only 3 weeks old now, I’m very much sleep deprived and I really threw these numbers together quickly without hardly any research. I had Fantastic Four and Mad Max at $160 and eventually decided to go with Max Max. Also looking at my numbers, everything seems too big but I don’t know which films to reduce the box office.

Jordan Cantello
Guest

1) Avengers: Age of Ultron – 225/650
2) Minions – 70/270
3) Inside Out – 65/250
4) Jurassic World – 90/240
5) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation – 65/225
6) Ant-Man – 60/180
7) Ted 2 – 55/160
8) Fantastic Four – 50/150
9) Tomorrowland 45/140
10) Terminator: Genisys – 45/135

GE Hale
Guest

The spreadsheet is up!

Please let me know if there are any errors you see. The spreadsheet should be accessible at http://bit.ly/SBO2015 but bit.ly is acting up for me right now so just in case, the full link is:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhWHObQUpxlQdDNRcnlaT2s2UFFwd2R4T3RIOHNZOUE&output=html

Good luck everyone!

Andrew
Guest

Hey GE,

Took a peek at your excel sheet and I have a cpl questions for you re: your box office aggregator…. would love to talk via email if possible. Hit me up at andrew.robinson@gmanreviews.com

Dave Nandes
Guest

Thanks GE!

Matthew Fabb
Guest

And the first Deadline article about the summer box office is up! Currently, Avengers 2 is tracking at $87 million Friday (including $27.6 million from midnight & Thursday evening screenings) for a total of $213 for the weekend.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Latest update has estimates for Friday at $94 to $97 million and the weekend at $217 to $220 million.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’ll be shocked if Age of Ultron has the legs of The Avengers.

It’s better than Thor: The Dark World, but like Iron Man 2, it sidetracks it’s own sense of urgency and stakes by muddling the picture with outright teases for future movies. I’m definitely ready for practical action again too. And well established geography. Consequences would be good as well.

It has definite middle chapter problems coupled with having to serve the Marvel Studios franchise in addition to its own story.

Philip Poirot
Guest

I think it’s quite obvious that Avengers: Age of Ultron (AAOU) won’t have the legs of Avengers (2012).

* CinemaScore – Avengers (A+), AAOU (A).
* Rotten Tomatoes – Avengers (92%, avg. Rating 8/10), AAOU (75%, 6.7/10)
* Avengers Competing movies [MAY] – Battleship (65m), Dark Shadows (79m), Dictator(59m), MIB3 (179m).
* AAOU Competing movies [MAY] – Mad Max, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, Poltergeist, San Andreas.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

My screening for Avengers Dos was dead empty. Literally not a soul was present aside from myself.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Where and when did this screening take place?

I’m home with a newborn () but I was still on the email chains & group chats from friends of mine trying to find a evening screening that wasn’t sold out this weekend. This is in the Mississauga & Oakville area.

Anyways, looks like they will try either later in the week or next weekend.

Goon
Guest

I saw it in IMAX 3d at Empress Walk… which mind you is usually not all that busy, however it was around half full, and the crowd pretty much sat on their hands. a few guffaws, one or two slight claps. Which even considering the location is a complete turn from seeing it at the same place at the same time of day for the last film which was a raucus crowd.

I didn’t care much for it. It’s not a disaster, it’s just not very good. I’ll probably buy it though out of habit and because I’m an idiot like that. The character dynamics are pretty weak, the new characters are kind of lame (even though I’m generally a fan of Olsen), Ultron himself puts off too much of a Transformers-y “been there done that” vibe, and the action is honestly, pretty terrible, discordant and generally unmemorable.

I think the general public will like it more than I did, but I genuinely believe this won’t get the repeat business that the first one did.

Meanwhile, the Tomorrowland IMAX preview got a great reaction and was of such a high quality that I could estimate that it may surprise everyone with its box office showing.

David Brook
Guest

Am I the only person who really liked this film? I thought the action was great personally. I did have some problems with the writing, but I thought it was immensely entertaining. Maybe it’s just because I skipped a huge proportion of blockbusters over the last year or two, so when I finally catch one on the big screen I’m easily excited.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I think it’s a step down from the first and placeholder for the third, but I still enjoyed Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Nathan
Guest

The end of the Ant-Man trailer (fight on the toy train set) got the biggest response from the audience I was in.

Chef
Guest

I think Joss needs to stick with screenwriting and TV. Except for a few scenes both Avengers movies direction was kind of bad. I glad that the Russo brothers are taking over for now on.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

The geek flip flop is set, now they just need a rebound film to finish out the backlash. Enter Fury Road. 🙂

Matthew Fabb
Guest

If several weeks ago anyone told me that a boxing event would pull away box office from Avengers 2 and pull in twice the amount of it’s opening weekend in the opening night, I would have thought they were absolutely crazy. I’ve seen it happen and I still think it is absolutely crazy.

Yet in my social media feed it seemed to be endless number of people, the majority who generally have no interest in boxing, were closely following that big boxing match.

Dave Nandes
Guest

I was in a group of 6 guys on Saturday that would have been watching Avengers if not for that boxing match.

Alex
Guest

Looks like 187mm open . Need 3 mm adjustment downward to score a single point. Studio accountants don’t let me down.

Philip Poirot
Guest

So what happened to the “Avengers BUMP” that every phase-2 film enjoyed until now?!

Voncaster
Guest

I wonder if Avengers AOU pedestrian (For a Marvel Tentpole) performance is due more to boxing taking its momentum or super hero fatigue?

If the later, the slate of Marvel, DC, and Star Wars perhaps looks a little less like a sure thing. I’m sure AOU does not lose money, but if the profit shrink per film instead of grown that is not a good thing.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Profit is a completely different thing than Perception. Even if AAOU falls short of 500m at the domestic box office, it’ll definitely clear $1 billion Overseas. I think we can expect the Worldwide total to be around $1.7 billion (low end). It can go as high as $2 billion.

FURIOUS 7 is already on track to beat the Avengers(2012) $ 1.518 billion mark. Unlucky for them is that they still would be in the fourth place after AAOU is through with the world.

Also to add another point – there is no way superhero movie fatigue has set in. It is only getting bigger.

Andrew
Guest

YAY!!!

Once again out of the gate I’m overestimating everything… at this rate I assume Avengers will creep to 400 and sit there.

1 Film down, 9 more to get completely wrong.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

450 dude. 450.

Philip Poirot
Guest

I would like to contribute to the wild theories of “Reasons behind the under-performance of Age of Ultron”. It’s probably just as ridiculous as “Kentucky Derby”!

If you look at the daily box office breakdown of Age of Ultron (Superhero showdown) linked below, you’ll notice that the FRI-SAT drop off is similar to The DARK KNIGHT movies.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=topsuperhero.htm

FRI-SAT Bump or smaller drop occurs when Family Audiences with little children show up on Saturdays. You see it in Animation films and child friendly Disney properties. Not in action blockbusters that are targeted toward Teen-Adult audiences.

So my theory is that the MARKETING MATERIALS made Age of Ultron seem like a less child-friendly property. The dark and menacing Ultron in the promotional materials and ominous tone of the movie made Families with very little children take a wait-and-see/skip it approach.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Avengers Uno had relatively dark promotional material and only experienced a drop of 13% from Friday to Saturday. I think its more likely that the word of mouth isn’t as strong with this one.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Early results have Warner Brothers estimating that Mad Max will come in at around $40 million and Universal Pictures thinks Pitch Perfect 2 will come in at $50 million:
http://deadline.com/2015/05/pitch-perfect-2-mad-max-the-fury-box-office-thursday-1201427235/

Rick
Guest

This is a really great essay about the Marvel Machine
http://whenwillthehurtingstop.blogspot.ca/2015/05/excelsior.html

Darcy McCallum
Guest

Pitch Perfect getting good promotion here in Oz, should make at least $100m in US, Mad Max getting pumped on sites, youtube and TV, comes down to worth of mouth and legs to get it towards $150m, I only see one of the two getting into Top 10, Im seeing Mad Max 10am AEST Thursday so can give first report on what really should be the 6th Super Ticket so Stars Wars VII will be the 7th, is that right? wait…

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

100 might be stretching it. 55 seems entirely likely for this weekend though. Very strong social media presence.

Darcy
Guest

Mad max I think delivers enough to open#1 this weekend, a great watch today here in the land of Oz, maybe the 2nd best of the franchise behind road warrior for me ok, Theron the star and seems to get most screen time, Tom Hardy quiet good as Mad Max but over complicated accent started narration aussie but then got robotic, it’s a great action film for women and if can appeal to that car lovers could blast pass $200M, sets up well for a good sequel or full trilogy like Miller has been talking about, good villain call backs to first 3 films though the lack of Bruce Spence was suspect, good music, amazing production values though one weird thing, film seemed to be shoot at 30 frames a second, can’t imagine watching this in 3d hence, I think combo of pitch perfect and films to come might hold it back from cracking 200mil but 150m and top ten surely is a guarantee given crowd grabs it has, love to see it get a couple of weeks on top and make more than furious 7 but unlikely, anyway I haven’t seen that film so shouldnt compare, seems the obvious next super ticket,I like near quiet cinema was at 10:30 Thursday screening but more than average 30 people I’d say average age about 45 I was just desperate to see but did have free ticket point so probably better to go to rampart Friday night screening? Though I do question the films lack of humour maybe to quiet get an audience behind it but for bad assery, apocalyptic eye porn and adrenalin junkies it should deliver for a good hour and a half at least..

Kurt
Guest

Alas, SUPER TICKET MM:FURY_Road is not going to happen, as M.Price is off-continent at the moment.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Who’s seen Pitch Perfect thus far? I believe anyone with this in their list may be in for shocks… this movie isn’t going to hit any radar I believe. Saw it last night and the franchise will end unceremoniously here and I doubt the second weekend will even register.

Andrew James
Admin

Seeing it at some point this weekend. While I’m excited for it, I think you’re probably right. The first one was definitely a nice surprise, but trying to capture that lightning a second time probably won’t work.

I put this film in the same camp as Clueless, Legally Blonde, 10 Things I Hate About You or maybe even a Premium Rush. On the surface looks like something dumb and teeny-boppy; but then you see them and say, “wow, these are actually pretty good films.” But they would never work as a sequel. Along comes Legally Blonde 2 to help prove my point.

Goon
Guest

My crowd was twice as packed as Mad Max and loved it, laughing, applauded. it’s a weirder movie than its first. I think a third actually happens but they get forced into a corner to do more and more originals.

And I’ll be the one on here to say I liked it a lot more than Fury Road.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

As of right now, they’re saying only $50m for Tomorrowland’s 4-day.

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/tomorrowland-box-office-george-clooney-1201496120/

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

There is no way Furry Road opens number 1. The audience at my screening was 95% males over the age of 40. That doesn’t bode well.

Darwin
Guest

And also your Avengers screening was empty. I think you might be going to the movies in some alternate universe.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I do live in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, which is basically hicksville.

That being said, I don’t think Furry Road’s promotional material sells to women. Sure the stronger female characters may play to women, but that official trailer seems very male. In contrast the Pitch Perfect Dos promotional material seemed very much focused on girl power.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Completely underestimated George Miller and Elizabeth Banks. I thought Banks would be Completely out of tune (based on – Movie 43) and Miller would disappoint like Spielberg (Krystal Cingdom) and Lucas. I was so wrong!

However, happy to be right about Tomorrowland. Disney once again got a “John Carter” on their hands. George Clooney, Brad Bird and Disney theme park loyalists might save it from becoming a complete disaster like John Carter.

MAD MAX still has a rough road ahead. With a Cinemascore of B+, the best case scenario you can expect is Inception’s (B+) multiple of 4.7x. This movie desperately need to attract female viewers.

Nathan
Guest

Review embargo was just lifted for Tommorowland and early reviews are mixed to “just good.” Having put Tommorowland in my top 10 concern is now high considering was banking on the film having the high quality of Brad Bird’s previous films.

Goon
Guest

Eh. Considering how much I loved the extended preview in front of Avengers, I’m willing to wait and see. With as much information held back on Tomorrowland as there’s been, I expected some degree of varied response since that opens the door to so much more “This isn’t what I wanted it to be”

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’m feeling pretty good about my just under $50 million OW estimate for Tomorrowland right about now.

Did anyone see Pitch Perfect 2 doing what it did? That’s going to be clearly a Top 10 film for the summer. Apparently home video isn’t dead as a medium of exposure.

devolutionary
Guest

I was so manic with some of my rankings. At the last second I dropped Pitch Perfect 2 from #7 or #8 on my list all the way off it. Doh! That was after making a serious oversight in originally leaving Mission Impossible off my list. If that film doesn’t gross in the top 5 I’ll be shocked.

Philip Poirot
Guest

When Andrew Stanton failed with John Carter, most people thought it’s an anomaly but it is the Norm. Spielberg, Cameron and even Nolan are the exception here. Launching an original big tentpole is almost impossible nowadays.

Raymond
Guest

I noticed that in the Monday box office Mad Max:Fury Road grossed more than Pitch Perfect 2.

Clearly we will have to wait for more numbers to call a trend but this may point to Fury Road having longer legs than Pitch 2.

Darwin
Guest

I think it might be a general trend with movies aimed at kids that they drop off more on week days. IIRC something similar happened with Big Hero 6 and Interstellar. BH6 dropped below Interstellar during the week but then came back on top during the weekend.

Rick
Guest

Tomorrowland is getting eaten alive at least on my letterboxd feeling less confident about that placement.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

The evisceration is a little surprising to me. I would’ve thought that the movie itself would have been fine, and just been hurt financially by the recent mainstream view of Science Fiction Films.

trackback

[…] summer I enter the MAMO box office contest to win. I try to get some friends involved to make the contest better, but the sole purpose behind […]

Alex
Guest

Really thought Mad Max had chance of being slow burn phenom with a huge second week hold. But looks like just a solid hold.

Philip Poirot
Guest

The biggest problem is that this is a one quadrant movie. Otherwise, it could have had the legs of Inception.

Nathan
Guest

Preliminary reports have Mad Max: Fury Road dropping only 47% in its second weekend, which is very good for an R-rated action film. After Monday, its total gross will be around $93 million. Hopefully the good word of mouth will keep the box office gross of Fury Road to continue to climb. Saw it for the 2nd time this weekend and loved it even more.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Mad Max dropped only 8% in South Korea. Talk about hold. Mad Max aligns with Kingsman right now. Kingsman had a multiple of 3.5x. That will get Max to $157m – that’ll make Matt Price very happy.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Keep in mind that The Kingsman opened in February. It’s a little easier to keep playing when your biggest competition is Chappie. Realistically it probably only has two more weeks before it gets drowned out completely by Jurassic World. A 3x multiplier is far more likely which would bring the total closer to 135m than 157m.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

FURY Road is getting a lot of repeat viewing from ‘the faithful.’

Witness.

Robert Reineke
Guest

It’s all shiny and chrome.

devolutionary
Guest

Coincidentally, it’s the only movie I’ve rewatched twice in the theatre over the past 2 years. And it was well worth the second viewing to pick up subtleties missed the first time around.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Definitely I got a lot more nuance the second time around, after I picked up my ass from the flooring it got the first go, I came out utterly exhausted (and not necessarily in a good way) from the first viewing, I missed a good chunk of the movie on that first viewing, and I don’t mean the just stuff in the background.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Took a look at the top 10 Rank-No Seeding and the Matt’s hold the top 3 positions! It’s Matt Brown at #1, Matthew Price at #2 and Matthew Fabb at #3!

Congrats to the two MAMO Matt’s for holding the top positions, for I think the first time that I’m aware of.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Tomorrowland’s opening weekend gross should be through Monday, i.e. Memorial Day, right?

Philip Poirot
Guest

Two months ago I was thinking – there is no way Age of Ultron is not the biggest movie of the year (both domestically and worldwide). Well now things have changed. Ultron may not beat Furious 7 worldwide! And there are Star Wars and Hunger Games finale to compete in the domestic box office. Warner Bros. should be relieved a little bit because they won’t have to face the Wall along the northern border of the Seven Kingdoms when they release their BvS movie.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Spy seems ready to be the second breakout comedy this summer. Marketing materials have been great, early reviews and reactions are positive. Entourage seems desperate (marketing spend) on the other hand and tracking is not good.
Jurassic Park is tracking 100m+ opening weekend. And the marketing materials have been spectacular.

Robert Reineke
Guest

If I’m dead on with one movie this Summer for opening weekend, I expect it to be Spy.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

They’re saying only 40m for San Andreas. Yay! “DIE ROCKY DIE” 😉

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-san-andreas-dwayne-johnson-opning-1201506547/

Darwin
Guest

Hey Matts + GE Hale, I just looked at my score and noticed a mistake. Inside Out is listed twice in the spread sheet as #3 and #10
My #10 should be Tomorrow Land: 125, 40

Darcy
Guest

That’s convenient Darwin, wouldn’t that be typo, bad luck?

Anyway spy beat 3rd week of PP2 here in Oz but didn’t beat Mad max which for 2nd week is number 1, I noticed mid week taking n1 in the us over tomorroland etc, I wonder what will be number one here it’s Mad max in 3rd week might just beat tomorroland..

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Surprising 49m estimated opening for San Andreas. Major snaps to Katarina’s 48m prediction.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

So question to anyone who wants to throw in their 2 cents. Which movie will last longer in theatres, Avengers or Mad Max?

As I have chance to see neither, as I have a newborn who is getting close to being 2 months old. At the end of June my wife & I are going to try to get out one night to see either Avengers or Mad Max. The next chance we might be able to get out would be end of July, beginning of August. Will either of those movies last that long, or will I miss out on seeing one of them in the theatre?

Mad Max has great legs right now and came out after Avengers. However, being an R rated movie, might go against when it starts getting pulled out of theatres.

Also I imagine a lot of people from RowThree are bigger fans of Mad Max and recommend I go see that first but on the side of Avengers is the fact that my wife is a big Marvel fan, having seen all of the Marvel Studio movies several more times than I have. With any luck, I’ll manage to see both on the big screen. Any other summer movies I’ll wait until I can see them at home.

Philip Poirot
Guest

IMHO it’s a no-brainer. I think Mad Max is –‘CINEMA’ but I would never suggest someone who went through a pregnancy recently to sit through Mad Max. Don’t even try to defend people because you know what I mean.* My choice is of course :: INSIDE OUT. It’s the most intimate story of Husband and Wife and Child and Emotions. And congratulations btw.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

LOL! Thanks for the congratulations and the recommendation. However as much as I’ve enjoyed Pixar movies, I’ve never felt that Pixar movies need to be seen on the big screen. I’m perfectly okay in waiting to see Inside Out on my tv when it is out on disk or download

Looking at the first Avengers, by the end of July it was still on around 500 screens. I don’t know if the second Avengers can pull that off, or Mad Max. Also on top of that if one of those 500 screens are still near me. I’m not used to seeing movies so long after they have come out into the theatre. It’s crazy how small the window has gotten on seeing even big blockbusters in the theatre over the years.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Can I be the ass and say both????

No…. if there’s one where the screen and outing experience will give more added value to it’s Mad Max…

As much as everyone’s going to talk about it being a better movie and all the Marvel complainers out there to complain about the visual normalcy at this point of their films… Miller just knows how to make his lunacy feel every minute in the frame in a way that your eyes will be happy you treated them. While Avengers has scale and a big screen is good… it’s more a dialogue movie than anything else, even if it’s supposed to be an action film.

PS. congrats man

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I’m hoping to be able to see both, which is why my original question is which movie has longer legs and might still be in theatres at the end of July. They currently both have similar screen counts (3,255 vs 3,228) and Mad Max is making around $1 million more a day than Avengers (at least this past weekend). That’s why I put the question in this thread, taking about summer box office.

As when you have a baby that is only a few months old, with their floppy necks, they are very delicate and a lot of work to take care of, feeding, diapers and all. So it’s not like you can get any teenager to babysit the baby for the night. There are just a few people that you trust who have the time and the ability to take care of a newborn while you go out for a movie. So I will see one movie mid-June and hopefully the other one mid to late July.

Alex
Guest

Shout to everyone who included San Andreas in their top ten. Looks like it has a chance to finish in the 8-10 range. Thought a Roland Emirich-style disaster flick would not fly in 2015. I stand corrected.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I snagged myself 5 bonus points. Go ROCK (but booo, Big Trouble in Little China remake…bad idea, ROCK)

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Nice.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

ROCK is like that star athlete that makes one good play followed by like two terrible ones.

Darcy
Guest

Australia releases pretty much gonna line up with north America for all of June atm coming out of may this is bow the films here will eventually tank I reckon

Avengers
Mad Max
Pitch Perfect
San Andreas
Spy
Tomorrowland

Only 6 fims that will get pass $10mil here, I think at least one thing this could suggest is that quiet a few maybe even 20 films could get pass $100mil in NAM so surely at least $150mil to make top ten, I have only been to Avengers and mad max so far, only film that gets me going enough this month is Jurassic World, can Pratt keep it going, maybe he just does choose good projects he did star in the 2 biggest surprises of last year, hope JW can leave behind pop culture stuff he likes and do what Lego n gotg well like staging and plot stacks, btw I still don’t get how inside out will transcent I will consider Vic to anyone who dosent pick it in their 10 and gets that right..

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I’m starting to get this weird feeling that I’m not going to win this thing… this may not be a good sign since it’s just June….

Also, curious whether I was right/wrong to leave Spy off the top ten.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Probably right to leave Spy off. Box Office Mojo estimates 30 million for this weekend.

Alex
Guest

Well my two sleeper blockbuster predictions – Spy and Mad Max – which I had both sneaking their way to approx $250M,appear to be total whiffs. So much for word of mouth mojo. Good luck everyone. I’ll be watching this horserace from the stands..

Courtney Small
Guest

Spy may be the closet I get this summer to picking an opening weekend correctly. All my predictions are turning out to be way too high this year. Fingers crossed that McCarthy and company can hold well against Jurassic World and get to the 150 mark by summer’s end.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I’m semi hoping that Spy does at least 100… and also I have a slight wish that Jurassic SUPER Bombs… it just looks horendous and I want it to be another 25 years before someone thinks of doing another.

Courtney Small
Guest

Early buzz from the preview screenings is that Jurassic World is better than the trailers make it look. Not sure how that word-of-mouth will translate into the overall box office, but I am hoping the nostalgia factor will bring out enough people to give the film a big opening.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

So what’s the probability that Mad Max can earn 4 more mil for me to hit the overall box office on the nose?

I guess not.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

SO…..

I saw J-World (I would like to commission that we all refer to this movie as this)… last night. I’m here to report; it’s not that bad.

It’s not good. It’s not Avengers, or San Andreas (which I enjoyed). It’s OK. When Dinosaurs are dinosauring it’s pretty cool. Has a lot of the amazement feeling that the original brought.

When people (Pratt & Howard) are on screen narrating the plot it’s dumb and horrible. I hate the writing in this movie so bad. If you saw that early scene where Pratt makes a dumb sex joke with Howard and thought (‘that makes this look horrible’) then you’re right if you watch the version with just these people talking to each other.

SO.. in the end I don’t dislike this movie, I just am meh to it. When I think of just dinosaurs then I’m ok with it… when I think of everything else it’s a pain.

I think this movie will have a great opening (esp since it seems Spy is going to be one of those movies that makes 15 for another 3 weeks rather than burning a hole in people’s pocket) and probably have a hard drop off after 1/2 weeks.

Andrew James
Admin

It’s beyond terrible. I was half bored and half offended at how shitty the first 2/3 of that movie is. It picks up some steam and there is one sequence that is genuinely great. Otherwise, what a piece of already done dino-dropping.

Raymond
Guest

Deadline saying Jurassic World will open North of the June record, between $115 and $135 million. My opening weekend prediction is half that:
http://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-weekend-box-office-spy-entourage-insidious-chapter-3-1201441812/

Philip Poirot
Guest

Universal just dropped the “Red Matter” and created a black hole in the box office. I think we’ve seen the first casualty last weekend with #Spy and next weekend will see #Inside_Out under-perform (remember #HTTYD2).

Philip Poirot
Guest

If I am an EXEC of Legendary associated with Kong: Skull Island(2017), I am re-writing the First Act of the movie. Let’s put a big Cruise-ship full of children and women and Tom Hiddleston. They arrive at Skull Island and discovers the Giant creatures with Wide Eyed Awe and Glee. It’s all about attracting to the maximum number of ticket buyers in the trailer. Good movie is an afterthought.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Congrats to the Insane person @DEVOLUTIONARY who actually predicted an opening weekend of $210M for Jurassic World that is in the same ballpark.

Darcy
Guest

Looks like 180m for JP first weekend, see Chris Pratt just exudes confidence in a property I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s good even though I though GOTG overrated I’ll be seeing it on cheap Tuesday here in Penang, Malaysia, (hey I only see Mad Max 4 on opening, with free credit haha)

Alex
Guest

I had Jurassic World at 190 for its entire run. Still in shock at this weekend. Was anyone clamouring for another Jurassic Park after part 2 and 3. Not to mention a 15 year gap. Also didn’t hear a positive word about that trailer or the idea of genetically engineered super dino for 4 months. Thought at best it was going to hit Godzilla (2014) numbers. Well, at least my consistency remains in tact. I am relentlessly wrong. Still hoping Avengers 2 crawls to my 464M prediction. 22M to go…

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