Mamo #347: Days of Future Last

Summer begins now! Welcome to the annual Mamo Summer Box Office Competition, and this, our kickoff episode – in which the Matts lay out their vague theories on how things will go down in the domestic marketplace for the summer of 2014.

To download this episode, use this URL: http://rowthree.com/audio/mamo/mamo347.mp3

THE CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED. Best of luck to all entrants! Here’s the grosses tabulator for this year.

Rules:

THE SUMMER STARTS ON MAY 1 AND ENDS ON AUGUST 31, in terms of movies you can pick. Please work by domestic release dates only and with domestic grosses only. Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over.

Players will submit the following:

Top ten films, in order of total grosses. Also total gross $ amount and opening weekend gross $ amount. So as an example, submissions should look like this:

1. Kind Hearts and Coronets, $402 million, $175 million
2. The Ruling Class, $375 million, $150 million

Points awarded for:

A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.

B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.

C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.

D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.

E. 10 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $1 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

F. 5 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $5 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

G. 1 Bonus Point for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $10 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross AND within $1 million of the opening weekend gross.

F. For the purposes of calculating weekends – Films opening on a Wednesday are counted until the first Sunday they are released. Films opening on Memorial Day weekend are counted until the following Monday. Films opening the week of July 4 are counted from whenever they open in that week until the first Sunday of their release. Example – Spiderman opens on Tuesday, July 3. Your guess for weekend gross would actually be its 6 day total, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday

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472 Comments on "Mamo #347: Days of Future Last"

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Sean Kelly
Guest

I was near the bottom of the rankings last year, so all I can hope is that I get a somewhat better score. I do agree that How to Train Your Dragon 2 is most likely the one to beat.

Here goes nothing:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $450M, $100M
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $325M, $85M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $300M, $125M
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $225M, $100M
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $180M, $70M
6. A Million Ways to Die in the West, $160, $40M
7. Guardians of the Galaxy, $150M, $60M
8. 22 Jump Street, $125M, $30M
9. Godzilla, $110M, $50M
10. Edge of Tomorrow, $95M, $40M

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

1. X-Men: Days of Future Past 342m / 145m
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction 340m / 135m
3. How to Train Your Dragon II 260m / 75m
4. The Amazing Spider-Man II 259m / 95m
5. Guardians of the Galaxy 180m / 65m
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 179m / 65m
7. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 175m / 60m
8. 22 Jump Street 170m / 55m
9. Maleficent 155m / 55m
10. Godzilla 145m / 53m

Matthew Price
Guest

And Mine:

How to train Your Dragon 2 – $340, $85
Godzilla – $295, $75
Transformers: Age of Extinction – $290, $80
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $285, $100
X-men : Days of Future Past – $260, $100
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $250, $90
Guardians of the Galaxy – $220, $70
22 Jump Street – $180, $55
A Million Ways to Die in the West – $170, $55
Hercules – $150, $40

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Heads up, when looking at the Dark of the Moon opening weekend number(98m), keep in mind that it made 65m the previous 2 days. Same thing with Revenge of the Fallen, 109m opening weekend but also made 91m on wed/thurs. Same thing with Amazing Spider-Man, 62m opening weekend with 75m already in the bank.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I would like to welcome myself to the BO game… as my first year in ….

My outside pick is that I’m banking Neighbors to do well and Deliver Us From Evil to be the great Horror film of the summer this year…

Format: Name, Total, Opening Weekend

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), $350, $140
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2), $300, $125
Godzilla (May 16) $255, $130
Transformers 4 (June 27), $220, $110
Deliver Us From Evil (July 2), $200, $80
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11), $160, $90
X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), $150, $75
22 Jump Street (June 13), $140, $80
Neighbors (May 9), $100, $70

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Welcome, bro. As a fan of your casts, including the fantasy film league eps, it’s cool to see you join in the fun. BTW, you’re missing one more film from your top 10. Don’t throw away those precious points.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

thanks man… glad you enjoy the shows.. have a few to release in the next few days 🙂

Andrew Robinson
Guest

Thanks to Tum Tum below for pointing out I had a copy error and lost my 10th film… here we go the correct predictions

Format: Name, Total, Opening Weekend

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), $350, $140
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2), $300, $125
Godzilla (May 16) $255, $130
Transformers 4 (June 27), $220, $110
Deliver Us From Evil (July 2), $200, $80
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11), $160, $90
X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), $150, $75
22 Jump Street (June 13), $140, $80
Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1), $130, $70
Neighbors (May 9), $100, $70

GE Hale
Guest

The spreadsheet has been dusted off and will be ready to go May 1st. I will wait until then to collect everyone’s selections and publish it as last year they tended to evolve during the month causing some confusion.

But to help those with their picks, here is a link to the current list of movies being released this summer as reported by Box Office Mojo today:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhWHObQUpxlQdEkydDh4WE44S3ZvcXI0cFJoQ3Uwa1E&single=true&gid=12&output=html

Release dates can change (who can forget the points lost by many when GI Joe fled the summer?) or have been missed by BOM so you shouldn’t take that list as your only options. I can and will update it to reflect all your choices.

Matt Brown
Guest

You are the ultimate Mamo Mensch.

Kurt
Guest

MUCH LOVE for this Service. We Believe, GE HALE.

Andrew James
Admin

Echo that sir.

As we get closer, I’ll add the spreadsheet and other tid bits to the mobile app.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Awesome as always

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Thanks once again GE Hale for putting together this spreadsheet. Without it the contest would be so much less fun.

Goon
Guest

Another year, another inevitable entry that will be towards the bottom of the leaderboard:

How 2 Train Your Dragon – 350, 85
Transdinos: 310, 80
Extremely Mutant Ninja Turtles: 300, 90
X-Men: ZOMGWTF – 250, 80
Spider-Meh 2: 220, 75
A Million Ways: 200, 55
D’Apes: 170, 60
22 Jump Street: 165,75
Guardians of the Galaxy: 150, 65
Homercles Cares Not For Beans: 150, 50

Kurt
Guest

My favourite Mamo! drinking game is to do a shot everytime Brown says, “Value Proposition.”

Matt Brown
Guest

How drunk are you right now

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Exactly the right amount of Drunk for recording a podcast on Nymphomaniac vol. 2 and Purple Rain.

Thanks!

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

A Million Ways To Die in the West will fail, both because everyone had their fill of Seth after TED, and more importantly, the bulk of the American public simply doesn’t bother with WESTERNS. Think Lone Ranger and Cowboys & Aliens.

Dave Nandes
Guest

How to Train Your Dragon 2 358 / 95
Transmorphers 304 / 98
Spider-Man 262 / 106
X-Men 247 / 106
Godzilla 199 / 79
Planet of the Apes 195 / 77
A Million Ways to Die in the West 177 / 50
Guardians of the Galaxy 168 / 63
22 Jump Street 163 / 60
Herc 150 / 45

Matt Gamble
Guest

Nobody giving Tammy any respect? Interesting.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

The trailer is pretty unfunny. But I’ll give the woman credit for getting A LOT OF BUTTS IN SEATS for both Identity Thief and The Heat, two pretty darn mediocre movies.

Matt Brown
Guest

I fared well with THE HEAT last year but I’m too superstitious to double down.

MrRTJL
Guest

I was going to wait until later in the month to post but any news or trailers may be more distracting than informative. Remember how excited we were when the Man Of Steel trailer came out? Here we go again, fourth (or fifth?) time lucky:

1. How To Train Your Dragon 2: $74M, $345
2. Transformers Age Of Extinction: $84M, $330
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $81M, $265M
4. X-Men: Days Of Future Past: $91M (Memorial Day weekend figure), $235M
5. Guardians Of The Galaxy: $76M, $225M
6. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes: $65M, $194M
7. Godzilla: $58M, $185M
8. 22 Jump Street: $43M, $155M
9. Maleficent: $41M, $130M
10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: $35M, $100M.

Thank you Mamo, Row Three and GE Hale

Robert Reineke
Guest

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 , $380M, $85M
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $310M, $130M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $265M, $99M
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $260M, $85M
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $240M, $110M
6. Godzilla, $220M, $80M
7. A Million Ways to Die in the West, $186M, $50M
8. Guardians of the Galaxy, $62M, $152M
9. Tammy, $40M, $150M
10. 22 Jump Street, $45M, $145M

That’s right, I’m going with 3 comedies in the top 10. 4 if you count GotG.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Man, I just noticed the formatting on my entry is clearly mixing total and open weekend totals at random. Helpful note for clarification, the larger number is the predicted total.

arjay
Guest

1 How To Train Your Dragon 2 (365m, 95m)
2 Godzilla (335m, 105m)
3 Transformers (265m, 100m)
4 Spider Man 2 (250m, 85m)
5 Planet Of The Apes (240m, 80m)
6 X-Men (190m, 65m)
7 Blended (170m, 70m)
8 Jupiter Ascending (165m, 60m)
9 Guardians Of The Galaxy (150m, 55m)
10 Think Like A Man 2 (140m, 55m)

JuiceTin Le
Guest

1.) Jersey Boys (550,200)
2.) The Fault in Our Starts (295, 100)
3.) Million Dollar Arm (270, 90)
4.) Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (250,65)
5.) Planes: Fire and Resuce (240, 77)
6.) Belle (235, 81)
7.) Frank Millers Sin City (210, 60)
8.) The Fluffy Movie (200, 50)
9.) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (190, 50)
10.) Sex Tape (155, 55)

Nathan
Guest

April 1st was four days ago….

Chef
Guest

I think even with Cap performing so well right now. Marvel studios will have their first bomb with Guardians. Every time I see the trailer in the theater the audience has no reaction to it. I’m not sure who’s the target audience their aiming for with that one.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I think what they’re going for, is a keep it close to the chest kind of campaign. Very hush, hush hoping to generate buzz that way, because God knows the source material won’t actually appeal to a mainstream audience.

If they make more than 170m they should consider that a success.

Matt Gamble
Guest

And at our theatre it’s the only trailer that gets any reaction.

Huh, funny how sample size works.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Interesting, is the reaction positive?

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yup.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Saturday night when I went to see Captain America 2, it got a hugely positive reaction from the crowd to my surprise.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also got a big reaction but very much a negative reaction.

Courtney Small
Guest

Geez this is a tough year to speculate…

How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $409, $106
Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $304, $110
Godzilla – $270, $75
Transformers 4 – $264, $84
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $253, $68
X-Men: Days of Futures Past – $222, $83
Maleficent – $180, $41
Guardians of the Galaxy – $154, $38
Tammy – $148, $34
Sex Tape – $136, $31

Kai in Boston
Guest

1. How to Train Your Dragon 380/$140
2.Transformers: Age of Extinction 290/$95
3. Godzilla 275/$110
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 230/$85
5. Neighbors 220/$55
6. 22 Jump Street 2 215/$75
7. Maleficent 210/$65
8. X-Men: Days of Future Past 195/$75
9. Edge of Tomorrow 170/$68
10. Guardians of the Galaxy 165/$45

trackback

[…] you entered this summers MAMO Box Office Contest. Being hosted at Row Three.Com, post your entry with the top ten grossing films of the summer, for […]

Benji
Guest

Here we go again!
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, 410M, 105M
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, 300M, 90M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, 245M, 90M
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, 210M, 65M
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past, 205M, 90M
6. Guardians of the Galaxy, 190M, 70M
7. 22 Jump Street, 180M, 60M
8. Maleficent, 160M, 50M
9. Godzilla, 150M, 50M
10. Edge of Tomorrow, 135M, 40M

Matt Gamble
Guest

Not sure anyone actually answered Price’s question, but no, Mexico is not part of domestic grosses. Only US and Canada.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

So is everyone waiting until the end of the month to put their entries in?

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I’m giving it a bit longer, yes.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Yeah, makes sense. I’m wondering how much this prolonged wait is going to hurt if something comes out with a killer trailer, but sucks, like Man of Steel from last year.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I almost always one of the last if not the last person to enter at the end of the month. I don’t do it as a conscious decision, just April is always a really busy month for me. With so much going on, I always put off spendingsome time to do some research until the day of. Then I’m literally looking up films on Box Office Mojo just before the midnight deadline wishing I had more time throwing together a list before my time is up.

Of course, this last minute list has won me the contest twice. Of course, most years I’ve landed somewhere in the middle of the list, so I think it’s been more luck than anything.

trackback

[…] Docs is finished the summer movie season officially begins! Thanks to the Mamo podcast’s annual Summer Box Office Competition (there is still time to enter the contest), my mind is slowly getting ready for warm weather and […]

GE Hale
Guest

Let’s go with:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, 400M, 88M
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, 340M, 84M
3. X-Men: Days of Future Past, 270M, 98M
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, 260M, 75M
5. Godzilla, 250M, 75M
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, 240M, 78M
7. Guardians of the Galaxy, 230M, 85M
8. Maleficent, 190M, 63M
9. 22 Jump Street, 180M, 46M
10. Edge of Tomorrow, 160M, 51M

Rot
Guest

I’m betting on stupid.

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction 397 / 110
2. How To Train your Dragon 2 320 / 79
3. Spiderman 2 319 / 87
4. X-Men 300 / 80
5. Godzilla 299 / 65
6. Guardians of the Galaxy. 250 / 60
7. Jupiter Ascending 236 / 60
8. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 209 / 50
9. Hercules 189 / 60
10. Planes: Fire and Rescue 159 / 40

Jamie
Guest

How to Train your Dragon 2 360/85
Trans4mers 305/100
Spiderman 2 300/105
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 275/90
Godzilla 265/90
X-Men 235/75
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 210/75
Guardians of the Galaxy 185/60
A Million Ways to Die in the West 165/50
Sex Tape 150/55

Philip Poirot
Guest

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $320 , $115
2. How to Train Your Dragon II, $300 , $80
3. The Amazing Spider-Man II, $265 , $110
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $255 , $75
5. Godzilla (2014), $235 , $75
6. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $230 , $108
7. Maleficent, $190 , $60
8. Guardians of the Galaxy, $180 , $65
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, $160 , $65
10. 22 Jump Street, $150 , $50

Thank you Mamo, Row Three and GE Hale…

Andrew Parker
Guest

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 $466M, $125M
2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $425M, $105M
3. Malificent, $350M, $100M
4. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $330M, $85M
5. Guardians of the Galaxy, $220M, $95M
6. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $190M, $85M
7. Godzilla, $155M, $75M
8. A Million Days to Die in the West, $150M, $40M
9. Hercules, $145M, $55M
10. 22 Jump Street, $120M, $35M

Kurt
Guest

My Skin in the Game:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $370 , $95
2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $250 , $105
3. Godzilla (2014), $244 , $75
4. Planet of the Apes 2, $240 , $99
5. Transformers 4, $230, $108
6. Maleficent $200, $85
7. 22 Jump St., $175, $55
8. Tammy $170, $41
9. Guardians of the Galaxy, $165, $55
10. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $145, $65

rot
Guest

How to Train Your Dragon made $217 domestic. I don’t see the sequel taking top spot of the summer. It feels like an unnecessary sequel, the first one was great but great because of the story of hiccup and toothless and how it changed the village culminating in a fight with the biggest baddest Dragon… this one feels like a desperate retread.

Transformers feels like a reboot, and it has the added allure of Dinobots which everyone fucking loves. I am actually interested in it, and I have had zero interest in the others, because the annoying Shia/Megan Fox thing is stripped out of it. Transformers 3 made $352 in 2011, 3 years ago! I think my guess of $397m is playing it conservative. I have come to realize form past contests, I always under-value what the big things will make and I under-value the importance of stupid, the more big loud and stupid it looks, the more money it will make.

Also Brave was something of a flop for Pixar, and I think in the average person’s mind, HTTYD is playing in that kind of historical niche, similar aesthetic. It will do well because it is the only big animated film around, but I don’t see it being THE ONE.

Kurt
Guest

Shrek 1 = $268M Domestic
Shrek 2 = $417M Domestic.

Don’t tell me that Shrek 2 was necessary, they wrapped everything up in the first one, and look at that bump.

rot
Guest

yeah I guess being unnecessary has never been a factor with summer movies. I still think Dragon 2 is too niche and too smart for Shrek numbers. Jay Baruchel is no Mike Myers.

Matt Gamble
Guest

How to Train Your Dragon ranks around 150 all-time on IMDb based on 290K ratings, Shrek doesn’t even rank based on 340K ratings.

Despicable Me doesn’t rank either, and that is based on 240K ratings.

Matt Gamble
Guest

It should also be noted that the film is based on a bestselling book series that is still ongoing, and their is also an animated television series based on the franchise. Their were changes from the first book to the film, but their is a wealth of material to draw from for future movies if Dreamworks chooses to progress past 3.

Kurt
Guest

Now I think I lowballed the film at 370.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Meanwhile How To Train Your Dragon has a 91% rating from 299K users (not critics but users) on Rotten Tomatoes. Comparison to the mentioned Despicable Me, that got a 82% from 251K users of RT.

People of all ages just seem to love that movie and it seems hardly anyone saw it when it first came out. So much of the audience found it via home video & Netflix. At this point the sequel could be a complete bloody mess and the sequel would still be bringing in huge gobs of cash based off of love of the original. That said, since it’s based off a successful book series, I’m going to guess the sequel works.

Matt Gamble
Guest

The film had great word of mouth, I think we played it for 16 weeks or so, which is just ridiculous in a mainstream theatre. Which only blew up more once home video hit.

Andrew James
Admin

Yeah if I was a player, I’d put Transformers at the top as well. I actually like Phillip’s list above. I liked the last Transformers movie (truth be told, I think all of them are better than the critical reception – not great, but not “the worst thing ever”).

HTTYD2 will probably end up being on top simply because it’s the animated movie of the year. But I’d put T4 on top simply going for the points in this contest.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

The first how to train your dragon was released on March 26th, 2010. I think there’s considerable difference between a March release, and and June one. People go see more things in the summer. Plus young children are more likely to see things in June and July then they are in March and April.

Maybe I’m way out to lunch, but that’s just what I thought.

rot
Guest

no that’s true, and I expect Dragon to do better than its predecessor, I just don’t think it is going to break into $400m+ cash.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I don’t expect that either. $370 (ish)

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I couldn’t pull the trigger on plus 400 either. However, I don’t have anything to break plus 400.

Andrew Parker
Guest

I’m seeing lots of underrating of Neighbors (which I think has the biggest spoiler potential of the summer, despite not putting it on my list) and a ton of overrating of Planet of the Apes which I am betting fewer people will care about once release time hits.

Adam Grover
Guest

Hey everybody, my name is Adam Grover. I did a podcast detailing the summer as well as providing my entry for this contest alongside sometimes commenter Thomas Wishloff

You can find the podcast here: http://agrover81.podomatic.com/entry/2014-04-23T16_14_17-07_00

1.) How to Train Your Dragon (400, 90)
2.) X-Men: Days of Futures Past (375, 110)
3.) Transformers 4 (350, 105)
4.) Godzilla (310, 90)
5.) Amazing Spider Man II (305, 09)
6.) 22 Jump Street (300, 50)
7.) Maleficent (250, 60)
8.) Guardians of the Galaxy (230, 75)
9.) Edge of Tomorrow (200,60)
10.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (175, 40)

Good luck to all involved!

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Here’s my entry.

1.) How to Train Your Dragon 2 (385, 105)
2.) Transformers 4 (310, 110)
3.) The Amazing Spider-Man II (270, 90)
4.) X-Men: Days of Our Lives (255, 100)
5.) Godzilla (230, 70)
6.) 22 Jump Street (210, 60)
7.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (200, 65)
8.) A Million Ways to Die in the West (170, 60)
9.) Guardians of the Galaxy (155, 70)
10.) Jupiter Ascending (145, 50)

Be sure to check out the podcast I did with Adam Grover (: http://agrover81.podomatic.com/entry/2014-04-23T16_14_17-07_00), and I’ll see you at the bottom of the leader board.

Adam Grover
Guest

Hey everyone, my name is Adam Grover. I did a podcast with sometimes commenter Thomas Wishloff on our entries for this contest. You can find the podcast here: http://agrover81.podomatic.com/entry/2014-04-23T16_14_17-07_00

Here is my entry:
1.) How to Train Your Dragon (400, 90)
2.) X-Men: Days of Futures Past (375, 110)
3.) Transformers 4 (350, 105)
4.) Godzilla (310, 90)
5.) Amazing Spider Man II (305, 09)
6.) 22 Jump Street (300, 50)
7.) Maleficent (250, 60)
8.) Guardians of the Galaxy (230, 75)
9.) Edge of Tomorrow (200,60)
10.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (175, 40)

Philip Poirot
Guest

It is quite curious that a contestant can get the opening weekend numbers and total gross numbers right (acquiring 20 points) and not get in the top 10 list (maybe the 11th position) and still acquire 29 points for a single entry! Am I correct about the technicalities? If I am, then hypothetically someone can still win this contest by having the least number of correct top 10 entries but getting most of the box office numbers exactly. Funny eh?

Robert Reineke
Guest

That’s called strategy.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Bonus Points System!

Matthew Fabb
Guest

If you guess something should come in 10th place and it comes in 11th position, then you get 9 points. As you were only off by 1 position. So a movie as far as the 19th top movie could still give you 1 point if you included it as #10 on your list. It’s only movies that are 20th and under that offer no points the way the system is set up.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Tomorrow, I’ll show how you could really abuse the points system, if you’re unconcerned about the spirit of the whole exercise.

JamieNZ
Guest

Trans4mers 400, 125
How to Train your Dragon 2 350, 100
Godzilla 320, 100
Amazing Spider Man 250, 90
Guardians of the Galaxy 240, 65
Maleficent 200, 60
X-Men DOFP 190, 70
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 185, 60
22 Jump St 180, 60
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 165, 65

Jay Steneker
Guest

How to Train Your Dragon 2 365, 110
Amazing Spider Man 2 (280, 90)
X-Men Days Of Future Passed (265, 95)
Trans4mers (248, 80)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (218, 74)
Godzilla (203, 70)
Maleficent (194. 65)
22 Jump Street (156, 51)
Tammy (139, 44)
A Million Ways to Die (128, 45)

Nathan Austin in SE Minnesota
Guest
Nathan Austin in SE Minnesota

1)How To Train Your Dragon 2 $328, $79
2)Transformers: Send To Scrap Heap $282, $81
3)Spider-Man 2 Again $260, $98
4)Dawn of the Grape Apes $226, $70
5)X-Men: Back to the Future $224, $97
6)Maleficent $175, $61
7)Godzilla $172, $65
8)Guardians of the Galaxy $170, $62
9)22 Jump Street $150, $49
10)Tammy $147, $54

Darwin
Guest

how to train your dragon 370, 122
transformers 330, 110
x-men 275, 91
spiderman 240, 105.5
dawn of the apes 220, 73
godzilla 200, 66
guardians of the galaxy 185, 65
maleficient 155, 55
22 jump street 150, 44
neighbors 140, 43

ultimolee
Guest

Living in England i pay next to no attention to the box office in US & Canada and barely look at the British box office.

So what i’m saying is i am not a threat in this contest 😀 but thought why not have a go anyway


How to Train Your Dragon 2 $390m/$95m
Transformers: Age of Extinction $330m/$85m
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $260m/$70m
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $255m/$65m
Godzilla $250m/$60m
X-Men: Days of Future Past $230m /$80m
Guardians of the Galaxy $200m/ $65m
A Million Ways to Die in the West $180m/$50m
Tammy $150m/ $45m
Maleficent $140m / $40m

I had Godzilla as being a flop until i saw all the ballots and still think i should have 22 Jump street in here somehwere

Matthew Price
Guest
Rick Vance
Guest

Interesting experiment I don’t like entering stuff like this because I have little care for anything outside what interests me.

I will just use the Box Office Mojo rankings and see how they work for me.

1. How to Train You Dragon 2 (110, 325)
2. DoFP (95, 290)
3. TF AE (65, 285)
4. Apes (50, 240)
5. Zilla (70, 230)
6. ASM2 (90, 225)
7. GoTG (100, 180)
8. Maleficent (65, 150)
9. Neighbors (50, 140)
10. 22 Jump Street (65, 135)

LKM
Guest

How to Train Your Dragon 2: $357,000,000, $98,000,000
Godzilla: $ 282,000,000: $98,000,000
Transformers: Age of Extinction: $275,000,000, $126,000,000
Amazing Spider man 2: $273,000,000, $85,000,000
X men Days of Future Past: $265,000,000, $105,000,000
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: $225,000,000, 77,000,000
22 Jump Street: $185,000,000, $72,000,000
Guardians of the Galaxy: $110,000,000, $72,000,000
TMNT : $105,000,000, 83,000,000
Hercules: $95,000,000, $61,000,000

matthew price
Guest

We are going to assume you mean millions and not thousands.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

It’s going to be a slow year…

LKM
Guest

Thanks, my thumb got tired with all the zeros required. That or my editor SUCKS.

Jordan Cantello
Guest

1. How To Train Your Dragon 2, $380 million, $85 million
2. Transformers: AoE, $290, $85
3. Spider-Man 2, $270 million, $80 million
4. X-Men: DoFP, $260 million, $95 million
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $210 million, $70 million
6. Godzilla, $190 million, $65 million
7. Guardians of the Galaxy, $170 million, $60 million
8. 22 Jump Street, $150 million, $50 million
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turles, $125 million, $50 million
10. Maleficent, $120 million, $40 million

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

HITYD2 $84m $356m
Tran4mers $92m $278m
DOTPOTA $81m $253m
Spidy 2 $89m $248m
X-Men 2 $71m $224m
Godzilla $76m $217m
GOTG $70m $195m
Malificent $63m $171m
22JumpSt $54m $160m
Tammy $42m $153m

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Damn… I’m 46 minutes late. With the whole Rob Ford new crack new video and other crazy news I completely forgot I had to get my picks. I’m putting together my numbers now even if I will be officially out of the race to win the DVD/blu-ray, I would still like to play just the game part of it.

Darcy McCallum
Guest

did my top ten get posted through? been off the grid recently but got time today to post.

Darcy McCallum
Guest

HTTYD2
TRANSFORMERS4
DOTPOTA 2
SPIDERMAN 2
X-MEN
GODZILLA
GUARDIANS OTG
MALEFICENT
TAMMY
22JUMPSTREET

Darcy McCallum
Guest

$358m/$82m
$283m/$90m
$255m/$79m
$244m/$87m
$226m/$76m
$208m/$78m
$189m/$63m
$165m/$48m
$153m/$52m

Tony D'Amico
Guest

I can’t believe I forgot to put my entry in, FML. Oh well, good luck to everyone

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I know I’m late and disqualified from winning, but I would appreciate it to be included in the giant Google doc just to play along and see how I rank. Thanks.

Here’s my list that I didn’t nearly spend enough time thinking about:
1) How to Train Your Dragon 2, $415, $110
2) Transformers 4 – $352, $130
3) X-Men: Days of Future Past – $285, $135
4) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $255, $72
5) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $250, $71
6) Godzilla – $202, $68
7) Maleficent – $190, $65
8) Guardians of the Galaxy – $175, $55
9) 22 Jump Street – $150, $50
10) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles – $110, $40

I didn’t know where to put A Million Ways To Die or particularly any of the other comedies, so I just didn’t included them. Except 22 Jump Street which I’m really just basing off the success of the first one.

Also I had a hard time getting a read on Jupiter Ascending and The Edge of Tomorrow, so I also kept them off my list rather than get them horribly wrong.

Robert Reineke
Guest

The how to abuse the scoring system ineligible entry:

1. Belle, $1M OW, $5M Total
2. Documented, $1M OW, $5M Total
3. Walk of Shame, $1M OW, $5M Total
4. The Hornet’s Nest, $1M OW, $5M Total
5. Palo Alto, $1M OW, $5M Total
6. Ai Wei Wei: The Fake Case, $1M OW, $5M Total
7. Next Year Jerusalem, $1M OW, $5M Total
8. Gore Vidal: United States of Amnesia, $1M OW, $5M Total
9. We are the Best, $1M OW, $5M Total
10. Borgman, $1M OW, $5M Total

Obviously you’d miss out on all the ranking points, but I’d no doubt come within $1M on all the opening weekends, racking up 100 points right there, and within $5M on the totals racking up another 100 points. You’d win the thing by mid June.

That’s completely not within the spirit of the game, so maybe a rule that your lowest total has to be at least $100 million in the future.

Darwin
Guest

well done!

matthew price
Guest

This is an excellent point, and terrific game theory. Next year’s contest will include a rule that at all of your entries have to appear in the top 40 grossers of the summer in order to qualify.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Question, would that imply that if one of your films wasn’t in the top 40 all of your picks would be ineligible? It would be kind of unfair if someone seriously picked something like “Apollo 18” and had their entry thrown out.

matthew price
Guest

Nope, it would be entirely fair. If you are that far off the mark on any pick you can’t win. Unless Mr. Reineke would care to suggest an alternative?

matthew price
Guest

Also Apollo 18 was released on September 2 (the last possible release date that summer) and still came 41st, so honestly I’m not sure this would ever be an issue. No winner thus far would have been disqualified, and any other disqualifications don’t affect the outcomes.

Robert Reineke
Guest

G.I. Joe: Retaliation, which many peoplepickpicked in good faith is the problem with that rule.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’d suggest setting minimum values of $12 million for opening weekend and perhaps $100 million total to weed out the bottom feeder strategy. Or set a scheduled screen minimum.

matthew price
Guest

We will think on it and get back to this in next year’s contest.

Robert Reineke
Guest

You have plenty of time to tweak the rules. Honestly I have nothing against reserving the right on May 1st to DQ anyone that’s not observing the spirit of the contest. The contest is spice to spur discussion and not something that needs to be bogged down with rules to prevent gremlins.

Matt Gamble
Guest

I’m pretty sure the spirit of the contest is to win.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Spoken like a true gamer.

Darwin
Guest

I think you just need to eliminate “Apollo 18”, you can keep the rest of their picks as long as they make it into the top 40.

So you just can’t make points off of films that fall under the top 40 threshold.

I also think that a top 40 cut off makes more sense than a 18mil and under cutoff. But that’s just a hunch, I could be wrong.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Don’t hate a guy cause he’s Chaotic Neutral.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Chaotic? Sure. Neutral? That’s debatable.

Matt Gamble
Guest

http://easydamus.com/chaoticneutral.html

“Well known chaotic neutral characters from film or literature include: Captain Jack Sparrow (Pirates of the Caribbean), Q (Star Trek), Peeves the Poltergeist (Harry Potter), and Conan the Barbarian. ”

I don’t know how that doesn’t fit me and I shall ignore anyone who claims otherwise.

Goon
Guest

This man is a genius who kept the opportunity for evil in check. Well done.

Someone better be checking in on this fake entry to see if it would have indeed won.

Robert Reineke
Guest

If I was playing this strategy for real, I would have chosen some even more obscure films opening up this Summer to assure 200 points, but I just aimed for the May / June releases to get the point across.

I do expect that these picks would at least contend though. Belle’s opening on 4 screens this weekend, that’s 10 points right there.

Robert Reineke
Guest

FWIW, Belle, Walk of Shame, and Documented all opened to less than $1 million this weekend, so there’s 30 points in the theoretical bank right there. Belle might end up making some money as it platforms out, it really wasn’t the best pick for the exercise, but Walk of Shame and Documented are certainly going to make way less than $10 million.

matthew price
Guest

FWIW We would have disqualified you on general principles. Of course, you could take us to small claims for the value of a Criterion, but this seems unlikely 🙂

Robert Reineke
Guest

I intend to win that Criterion the straight up way. With honor. Unlike Matt Gamble who totally would have pushed it if he was clever enough to spot the hole in the rules.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Who needs to be clever when you’re mischevious?

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

that is some white hat hacking, par excellence!

GE Hale
Guest

Ok, the spreadsheet is completed for this year. Please let me know if there are any errors or omissions. As in previous years, I have used the “seeded” ranking as the main ranking which uses the collective predictions as a way to determine which selections are more likely but the raw data is also available for those who want it.

The Row Three collective thinks the summer will shake out thusly:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2:$359.9M,$98.0M
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction:$302.4M,$99.7M
3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes:$271.3M,$71.3M
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2:$263.6M,$95.2M
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past:$238.2M,$93.8M
6. Godzilla (2014):$222.5M,$77.3M
7. Guardians of the Galaxy:$176.1M,$65.6M
8. 22 Jump Street:$155.9M,$55.4M
9. Maleficent:$150.6M,$60.6M
10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014):$123.5M,$64.2M

In case I haven’t explained this before, I do a little trickery for the gross prediction to deal with the fact that if I just average the movies when people select them, it will overestimate the collective guess. This is because I don’t have data of movies that people do not put on their list which are presumably the movies that individual thinks will do poorly. I was not sure how to deal with this so I just assume that if you did not select a movie, you believe it will make exactly $100M. Perhaps that threshold should be a little higher, but it is just a guess anyways. I didn’t bother to do this for openings so they are likely a little higher than a collective guess as people who did put the movie on their list (and therefore presumable think it will do poorer) are not counted.
TLDR version: Take the numbers with a grain of salt (suffers from selection bias) but the positional ranking is solid.

You can find the spreadsheet at:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhWHObQUpxlQdEkydDh4WE44S3ZvcXI0cFJoQ3Uwa1E&output=html

or,

http://tinyurl.com/BO2014

MrRTJL
Guest

Thank you for making this entire adventure easy to follow 😀

Robert Reineke
Guest

So, how about THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2? No doubt it will make a lot of money, but is anybody really excited to see it?

I hate to call any artistic enterprise “product”, but this seems to come as close as anything to fitting the bill.

Philip Poirot
Guest

I over-estimated the box office of this movie. I thought this movie is just terrible and all over the place and given the rotten tomatoes score, there is no way it makes more than $250 mil. Firstly, this is the first weekend of may release and secondly, TASM 2 has gigantic marketing budget. These two factors convinced me that it would do well. Now, I am not so sure.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Don’t worry you’re not alone! I grossly overvalued how much people actually liked the first movie considering that people always tell me, “oh I loved that first movie, Andrew Garfield is so much better than Toby Maguire”! I actually don’t think that anyone likes that first movie, they were just deluded by the fact that it wasn’t Toby Maguire, who is a popular whipping boy.

Darcy
Guest

Did u get my entry, I saw Spiderman two weeks ago, really poor film, opening will make up for lack of legs, was tempted to say malificent will flunk and wild bet on Lucy to make good $$ in august~september

darcy
Guest

seems non of my comments get thry, anyway just wanna say that Spiderman 2 is any pants script by Kurtzman/Orci, saw it just to get idea of 2014, I recokn could be a really wank year, I still think DOTPOTA & X-Men should come thru good, I really want to see 4 films on my top ten, guess that was 5.

Andrew James
Admin

Darcy – a bunch of your comments got stuck in Spam limbo (we’ve been getting killed lately). You turned in your picks before midnight last night so you’re all good I think.

Darcy
Guest

hey thanks whatever I submitted take that as entry, I hope I can be added to GE-Hale’s predictor grid etc…

Interstellar trailer front of Godzilla, thats a $10m bump

GE Hale
Guest

Sure I can put you in the calcutron but it seems you are short one selection on your dollar amounts. I doubled up our last selection for now, but if you give me a value for 22 Jump Street, I can update it.

Darcy
Guest

8 – Maleficent 175 62
9 – Tammy 163 48
10 – 22Jump St153 52

there’s my bottom 3 if that’s possible to change…

Kurt
Guest

All scripts by Kurtzman/Orci are SHIT. End of story. Those guys are ruining blockbuster genre cinema at a rate exponentially faster than the Devlin/Emmerich ever were in the 1990s.

Andrew James
Admin

This reminds me, I need to go back and do a “rewatch and reevaluate” on MI:3 and The Island. Both of which I was pretty down on with their initial release.

I like Transformers 3. Sue me.

Kurt
Guest

Ah, the exception that proves the rule, “THE ISLAND” is my favourite Michael Bay movie. Certainly not for its screenplay (although in my mind, there was some control over the worst impulses by author/screenwriter Caspian Tredwell-Owen).

MI:3 is a disaster however, an utter bad-TV-ish mess.

rot
Guest

I believe Orci is directing the third Star Trek movie so at last the Orci auteur vision will be realized.

I like their Star Trek movies so there.

Darcy
Guest

alex kurtzman does Venom, they will end up stinking the good part of two decades, I hearby boycott them because boy did Spidy 2 stuff up a good cast, decent first film, big budget, prefect summer box office pose…

Nathan Austin
Guest

Amazing Spider-Man 2 is on pace to make $89 to $95 million in its 1st weekend. Quite a few folks have a chance at nailing the opening weekend number, especially if it ends up close to $90 million since many had $90 million as the 1st weekend number.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I’m assuming word of mouth is pretty negative for this film, so I’m also assuming that what the movie makes this first weekend is going to be the marker of how well the movie does.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Well, I really messed up with my Amazing Spider-Man 2 pick. I realized now I was looking at the very low opening weekend of the original Amazing Spider-man, not realizing it had opened on a Tuesday resulting in a very low Friday to Saturday.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

I tried to give you guys the heads up about this exact mislead in one of my earlier posts above. Oh well. 😛

Transformers 4 is in the same boat, lots of folks getting tricksied by 2&3’s misleading OW.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yup, way back when this thread first started. I’m pretty sure I had read that earlier but completely forgot about it a month or so later when putting together my picks.

Also I was unfortunately in a big rush having already missed the deadline because I was caught up in reading about the latest Rob Ford crack video and reaction online. All that night news story after news story was dripping out.

That said, it’s curious that with the exception of holiday weekends, very few films are opening earlier on Wednesdays or Thursdays or Tuesdays.

rot
Guest

5 points, feeling good about my picks.

matthew price
Guest

There are a few of us in that position right now. Steady boy.

rot
Guest

I take my bragging rights where I can get ’em.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Note, last year’s contest the winner was towards the bottom of the top 10 and pulled ahead to win thanks to an incredibly accurate pick for We’re the Millers that came out at the end of August.

So yeah, we’ve got a long way to go.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Who has films in August though outside of Guardians this year?

Dave Nandes
Guest

Again I start in a top seed position, which means I’m screwed come July.

Matthew Price
Guest

Goon and Vance look like the only 2 with a shot at bonus points on the ASM2 grosses. Mid week, with no competish, this thing is just crawling. Pun intended.

Darwin
Guest

I don’t agree, it’ll cross 200 no problem. Probably 230-235. So I’ll still pick up points at 240.

Matt Brown
Guest

You were saying?

http://bit.ly/1meMaFr

Robert Reineke
Guest

Neighbors will be interesting. It looks like Darwin has a good shot at picking up bonus points based on some of the early predictions.

Nathan Austin
Guest

Saturday morning estimates have Neighbors projected for an unexpected higher than expected gross of at least around $50 million. Only four people had Neighbors on their list, this is good news for them. Looks like being the first big comedy out of the gate for the summer is going to payoff for Neighbors.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I didn’t include the film on my list, but I’ll still be seeing it.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Man, I hate it when I kind a comedy funny, yet I was not a fan of the actual plot.

I felt the more or less the same thing about 21 JUMP STREET and I am probably going to end up skipping 22 JUMP STREET altogether.

Darcy
Guest

Would have to choke if $50m dosent result in $150m + total. My random pick was gonna be Lucy.

Darcy
Guest

maybe summer will be big enough for neighbors not to make the ten but when u look at it has all the right ingredients to make the ten and the trailers have me keen, for this and 22J St for crase 2010’s humor. here in oz it was number one last weekend just on previews.

Darcy
Guest

Visually Godzilla is right up there wwith Monsters, great opening 10 mins I’d say, great title sequence, vvery good setting lost on half fleshed out script, alsp I thpought this folktalele was anti nuclear, sort of is, sshould open moremore tHan Spidy, also can’t deny that malificent if it hits will make $200m easy, x men just too good a cast, must past $100mil opening, Interstellar trailer good, saww about 24hrs ago, still think worst Tagline ever like too see link between burning mono crops and going down worm holes to findd some sustainable calories.

David Brook
Admin

My friend is at Cannes this year (I couldn’t afford it this time) and managed to get into the premiere of How To Train Your Dragon 2. He said it was amazing. I can’t wait and hope it makes tonnes of cash!

Andrew James
Admin

Excited.

Matt Gamble
Guest

I may be watching it next week.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Update, it’s fucking incredible.

Rick Vance
Guest

Was not expecting to be that colossally disappointed by Godzilla but that movie is a gigantic waste of space.

Kneecapped by a terrible script, terrible leads (for the most part), and focus problems.

UGH

Sean Kelly
Guest

Yes the human element is a little paint by numbers, but I still enjoyed the film.

Nathan Austin
Guest

Yup, I was pretty mixed on the movie also. Besides the paper-thin characters, it never settled on a comfortable tone. A person should just sneak into it around the last half hour and enjoy the best part and they would have no trouble following the “plot” after missing the first 90 minutes.

Kurt
Guest

The big mistake I made was to watch the 1954 Godzilla in prep for the 2014 Godzilla. Watching them close together shows the original to have so much more wit, intelligence and pathos. By comparison, 2014 is just shoddy and poor and lacking in any emotional impact or allegorical smarts.

Yes, the spectacle is indeed grand, but there is so little beyond that; at least on 1st watch. There are a lot of talented actors here giving some of the worst performances of their careers.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Ken Watanabe stood out the most. Bryan Cranston, Juliette Binoche, and Elizabeth Olsen were all a bit wasted. Aaron Taylor-Johnson did his job.

I have yet to see the original 1954 film, but I still feel that Gareth Edwards did a good job at being respectful to Godzilla’s Japanese roots (at the very least more than Roland Emmerich).

Edwards even says so in the following quote “The way I tried to view it was: imagine Godzilla was a real creature and someone from Toho saw him in the 1950s and ran back to the studio to make a movie about the creature and was trying their best to remember and draw it… and in our film you get to see him for real. It was important that this felt like a Toho Godzilla.”

While the film most definitely could have been better on the human front (and MONSTERS is much better in that area), I can still say that I left the film happy.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I’m starting to believe I’ve over estimated everything… so far every film I’ve inflated the opening weekend by 20-30M…

Am I the only one feeling that Godzilla may trample XMen this weekend?

Courtney Small
Guest

At least you were wise enough to include Neighbors, a film that I thought would be trampled by the second week of Spider-man.

I think X-Men will prevail over the long weekend, but I do not see it lasting long in people’s minds. The studio should have marketed the Jennifer Lawrence factor a lot more than they have. Even if she is only in the film for a few minutes (ala Drew Barrymore in Scream), she is still the film’s biggest draw right now. People love Jackman’s Wolverine but he is not a character that they are dying to see for two summers in a row. Plus, relying on the Fast Five style “we brought everyone back!” campaign can only carry them so far. Especially since nothing in the trailer so far has screamed “fun” or “cool” like the Fast Five or X2 trailers.

Matt Gamble
Guest

X-Men is tracking huge. Something like $120 mil. It’ll do just fine against Godzilla.

Goon
Guest

Having just seen Days of Future Past, I predict it will be drawing in a lot of repeat business and could potentially do the best X-Men box office yet. I will see it ast least two more times. It has everything X-Men fans want, learned from the stuff people complained about… and there is… retconning to say the least, enough that the guy who absolutely must find something to complain about might complain about it, but I don’t know why that person would.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Yeah, this film is made for the X-Men fans. While I still consider X2 my favourite of the series, this was probably the most solid film since then.

Quicksilver rules!

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

There go my Box Office Contest numbers.

Andrew James
Admin

What about non-fans? I saw 1 and 2 and maybe 3 (can’t remember). Never saw any of the Wolverines or the Xmen with McAvoy. Will I even know what is going on with this one? 90% chance of skipping this.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Yeah, this is not for non-fans. You don’t really need to see the WOLVERINE films, but the other four are must-watches.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

This is the question I’ve been asking for a year now. The one thing The Avengers has, is that it appeals to everyone, and not just Marvel fans. I dunno about this one.

Sean Kelly
Guest

It will be interesting watching Avengers: Age of Ultron next year and see the alternate take of Quicksilver (played by Aaron Taylor-Johnson), since the same character (played by Evan Peters) pretty much stole the show in X-Men.

Goon
Guest

It won’t come anywhere close to Avengers bank, but enough people come out to these X-men films that a better/the best one is going to pull a lot of coin.

re: Seans comment below. I would not want to be Johnson having to be Quicksilver right now. Because a) He’s a bad actor and b) Singer put so much of a stamp on him it would be like watching Toby Jones’ Capote after Hoffman’s turn. “Well, he looks like Quicksilver. But Peters IS Quicksilver.”

Sean Kelly
Guest

Look what I found:comment image

Goon
Guest

I’d see First Class, but there’s enough going on with flashes back that I think you could get by.

Maybe a bad example since I dont care for the franchise, but you’ll get by about as much as you could get by if you’ve seen Fast Five but none of the others.

Skip it if you wish. Your loss!

Darcy
Guest

in for sequel unlike Spidy 3 or Godzilla 2, Fassbender McAvoy Quicksilver looks like Malcolm McDowell, this film score ripped off which film? should be first film pass $250mil, should have thought with Hugh Jackman centerfold on postrer would help boost it past $100mil for opening weekend.

Andrew Robinson
Guest

I’m considering coding a website that will allow you to manage and do this game on the web… I wonder if the MaMo gods (more like demi-gods; Am I right???) would bless this idea???

ALso, do y’all like it?

I’m sad to see X-Men tracking so hard… damn me for not knowing the US Holiday weekends off the top of my head…

matthew price
Guest

doooo it

Matt Brown
Guest
Robert Reineke
Guest

I’m feeling lucky too. Significant bonus points at last!

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Nice!

Sean Kelly
Guest

I was off by $11m (and probably underestimated the overall gross as well)

Matthew Price
Guest

Nice job, kids.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Actuals are out. Brown got the 10.

Kurt
Guest

Ooops. Boy did I ever call X-MEN DOFP wrong. down to the bottom of the rankings I go as punishment.

Darcy
Guest

would projections suggest that X-Men now that it has overtaken Nieghbors, will overtake Spidy then eventually Godzilla, so maybe:

X Men $220m
Godzilla $210m
Spidy $200m
Neighbors $150m

have no interest in anything this weekend, I hope Seth’s lame humor gets assulted by that u never know, could be a good movie in Malificent, its more interestingly casted, AMWTDITW looks like urnest wank.

Darcy
Guest

i’m down in sydney for the film fest, I wanna go and graffiti the local Edge of Tomorrow poster, that film is just sci fi capitalist maths pro miltary american wankery.

Andrew James
Admin

“Seth’s lame humor”

I agree this new movie looks abysmal judging by trailers. But Ted was pretty decent and Family Guy is hilarious. Easily the most true lolz-per-minute show ever made (for me).

Sean Kelly
Guest

I’m probably going to go see it.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’m going to run aground on Seth’s movie, unless it totally shocks everyone this weekend.

I can’t see Maleficent having any legs judging from early reviews either, although it might open well enough.

Sean Kelly
Guest

From what I’ve heard, post-production on Maleficent only wrapped up a couple weeks ago. Not a good sign.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Are you sure that is true? My family was down in Disney World Orlando, and apparently Maleficent was playing as an advance screening on the big screen in their in-park movie theatre. I highly doubt Disney would be sneak peak a work print.

Sean Kelly
Guest

That’s indeed what I heard through the grapevine (i.e. our fellow Toronto film folks). Apparently there was a press event, which only consisted of 20 minutes of footage.

Apparently there was a lot of behind-the-scenes turmoil and multiple reshoots.

Here’s a not-so-positive Forbes article I found – http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/05/28/review-angelina-jolies-maleficent-is-a-bleak-misfire/

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Wow, someone else who actually appreciates Family Guy and doesn’t knee-jerkingly hate it because god forbid it has pop cultural humor. It’s like the haters watch the show with blinders on and the second a reference pops up they dismiss it as reference for the sake of reference, not even paying attention to the joke to see that there’s actually a clever take or observation to them. Whatever, their loss.

Andrew James
Admin

Absolutely. If people my age (38) don’t find humor in this show, I’m baffled. It isn’t so much that it’s pop culture, but more that it is really random pop culture. A lot of it is on the nose, sure, but a lot of it is stuff I totally forgot about that gets me in hysterics.

I truly laugh out loud at things on TV/movie so very very rarely; but I am always (ALWAYS) laughing at any Family Guy episode and I’m laughing hard. About every other episode I’m actually in tears at some of the jokes.

Just because it’s pop culture doesn’t make it lazy. If it’s funny, it’s funny. Like the time Margot Kidder stopped by for dinner.

Marina
Guest

We watch Family Guy every week and enjoy it. I don’t think it’s firing as well as it used to but it’s solid – most weeks better than the Simpsons. That said, it’s no Bob’s Burgers. Now THAT show is on the ball 90% of the time. So great.

Andrew James
Admin

Also, I forgot about how blatantly racist the show is too. But it’s too damn funny to really offend anyone.

“This is worse than the time I went to that Mexican funeral…”

Darcy
Guest

seth is a form of humor, up near in cairns I call I guy I know the seth mcfarlande of local cycling, cause he is a lame pop culture rip off artist who appeals to common demoninator.

SEE CARTOON WARS by South Park PEOPLE

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Just attempted to watch A Million Ways to Die in the West, and it strengthens my theory that Family Guy only got good when Seth Macfarlane left the show-writing to his team (around Series 5 and onwards). Ted was bad, this was worse.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Maleficent is expected to bring in around $65 to $70 million this weekend:
http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-office-disneys-maleficent-spells-success-a-million-ways-to-die-in-the-west-side-saddled/
If it’s on the lower side of things, it means I might finally picked up some points as I estimated $65 million opening weekend.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I don’t understand this at all, this movie looks like it could give Raja Gosnell a run for his money in the terrible department.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I heard from a lot of people that they thought it looked really cool. The make-up/fx for Angelina Jolie alone got a lot of people interested in Maleficent. I had to talk my wife out seeing it this weekend and waiting for it to be available on blu-ray or download.

Also the Deadline link broke, so here’s Box Office Mojo article with the actuals:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3851
Maleficent came in at $69.4. I pulled in some points, but not the bullseye that I was hoping for.

Nathan Austin
Guest

A Million Ways to Die in the West’s opening weekend expected to be $16 to $18 million, OUCH!

Kurt
Guest

Yay for people having taste. Better would have been <1 Million.

Philip Poirot
Guest

Why is everything so front-loaded this summer? Everything opens bigger than anticipated and then plummets.

Kurt
Guest

I think this has been an increasing trend for 30 years.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Just wait until next year….

Goon
Guest

Maleficent may have box office power beyond this week if the “This is a feminist film I want my little girls to see” response has legs. Prince Charming is completely neutered and every other man in the film is cartoonishly evil or completely under her thumb.

Unfortunately the movie is also fucking terrible. There is as much narration as there is dialogue, and Maleficent is silently shaping all events from a distance to the extent that it’s like watching someone play the Sims. I’d still watch it again before I went back to Burton’s Alice.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I on the other hand would rewatch Burton’s Alice (which I quite like and own on blu-ray) before I even think about seeing this (which I wrote-off weeks ago).

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Well once again I’ve picked the biggest flop of the summer.

Goon
Guest

I assume you mean A Million Ways. I did too. Looks like its self-flagellation again for me.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Last Summer I had After Earth and The Lone Ranger. All I need now is for Jupiter Ascending to bomb as well and I’ll have picked the two biggest bombs two years in a row!

Rick Vance
Guest

I know this contest does not include international and I think Days of Future Past is a PERFECT example of why.

It is already at 500 million worldwide in a week.

That is bonkers.

Rick Vance
Guest

I am also not sure if anyone else caught these because this is the kinda stuff I would love to have you guys dive into because it is FASCINATING.

http://morioh.tumblr.com/post/87589021860/strangely-fascinating-stuff

Matthew Fabb
Guest

My understanding (correct me if I’m wrong), was that Marvel/Disney doesn’t make any money from the toys or any licensing directly from the movie. Marvel could put out Days of Future Past toys directly from the comic book, but not if it’s directly from the movie. As I remember one of the Marvel movies own by another studio that Marvel did exactly this and this reason was point out at the time.

So it would be up to FOX to license and release toys on X-men. Looking it up there seems to be few on X-men: First Class, like some props reproductions and a series of Minimates. So similarly there seems to be few for Days of Future Past. That doesn’t seem to be the thing that FOX knows how to do well.

Rick Vance
Guest

There are also rumors circulating that Marvel is minimizing the presence of the Fantastic Four in the comics to potentially hurt the buzz around the upcoming movie.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

All because of one 75th anniversary cover with mainly Marvel Studio characters (and Spider-man?).

Right now there’s two Fantastic Four comics, the regular comic and a spin-off called FF. Plus Marvel did the Fantastic Four Season One graphic novel a while back, which I understand was very successful.

All of that doesn’t sound to me like Marvel is purposely trying to minimize a property that another studio has. Afterall, Marvel/Disney does get a healthy chunk of the box office that FOX generates from the movie. Also box office aside then there is all the merchandising.

I’ll wait to see if there’s more to the rumor, but it seems kind of far fetch to me.

Rick Vance
Guest

It is just a rumor but but even if true I don’t think they would take a hit from it because the Fantastic Four hasn’t been near the top of the publishing line since the original stuff. Everyone has fondness for the characters and the legacy but no matter who Marvel puts on that book it never pushes the dial.

Also the Season One thing was first green lit in 2011 before Avengers showcased just how big this all could be for them, same with FF and Fantastic Four one of which actually doesn’t exist anymore after they recently changed the creative teams around.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Yeah, it may have been since John Byrne since FF was truly a hot title, although Waid’s run is well regarded.

I’d imagine that the biggest people that would be hurt by the lack of FF when a movie comes out would be the comic store owners.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Hickman had a great run recently on both Fantastic Four and FF, mainly because Hickman is great, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t sell well during his run. Which is a shame.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I’ve been meaning to eventually pick up Matt Fraction’s & Mike Allred’s FF as I’m a fan of both creators.

It will probably be the first new Marvel series or trade I picked up since… I think perhaps Warren Ellis’ amazing Nextwave: Agents of H.A.T.E.

However, Matt Fraction’s Hawkeye has been on my list of titles to check out for some time now.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Hawkeye is freaking incredible. Probably the best monthly book being put out by anyone.

Rick Vance
Guest

Zero and Prophet both run a tidy little dance around it for that spot. Also Copra but that is a bit different yet still monthly.

I even preferred the couple bits of the new Iron Fist and Ghost rider books to it, but I have such a problem sticking on Marvel titles these days.

I only care about self deprecating mean Fraction which is Casanova.

Matt Gamble
Guest

I’ll agree that Prophet is good shit, but I’ll still take Hawkeye any day and not think twice.

Still haven’t checked out Zero. I really should rectify that.

Rick Vance
Guest

Thinking about it actually most of my comic reading right now has switched to weekly stuff (WSJ, 2000AD) with very few monthly books being up to snuff.

Oh and East of West because that is the Hickman book that works for me.

Goon
Guest

You’re both mistaken. He meant Hot Guy.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, I’ve also been meaning to check out Prophet for some time but haven’t gotten around to it. I actually hadn’t heard of Zero until now.

Yeah, Matt Fraction on Casanova has been great, as has Sex Criminals.

Image comics in general have been really on a roll lately. It reminds me of the peak of say Vertigo comics.

Brian K. Vaughan and Fiona Staples have just been hitting it out of the park consistently with Saga. Jonathan Hickman with the mentioned East of West, as well as the Manhattan Projects and what I think is wrapped up Secret. The last one I think could make a great tight spy movie.

Then there’s Ed Brubaker and Sean Phillips’ latest Fatale. Greg Rucka’s latest with Lazarus also quite good.

Tim Seeley’s Revival is also consistently amazing, focusing on the US town who suddenly a small amount of dead come back alive. Not as zombies, but just as regular people, if every so slightly off. The town is quarantine and the story focuses a young woman who was killed shortly before this strange event happen and is now trying to solve her own murder mystery and find out who killed her.

I probably missed quite a few, but yeah Image comics has such great titles happening now.

Which is one of the reason that I don’t get around to the new FF, as there’s such a long list of really great comics being published these days.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Well, Marvel today announcing a 100th Anniversary special, of Fantastic Four imagining them in 2061, I think outright has killed this rumor.

Jericho Slim
Guest

I hate to say it – but the Transformers 4 previews in the movie theaters have sucked me in. I swore I’d never pay another penny to see a Transformers movie, but I’m going to give it one more chance.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Jupiter Ascending pushed to 2015. Matt Brown, Arjay, Rot, and Thomas Wishloff get screwed. Sorry guys (it would’ve bombed anyways 😉 )

David Brook
Admin

They had no chance anyway – that film is destined to bomb and this has just cemented the fact.

Courtney Small
Guest

It is the curse of G.I. Joe all over again. On the plus side, this helps Sex Tape attract one or two extra eyeballs. At this point, I will take any bit of positive news I can get.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

So I technically did end up with the two biggest bombs of the summer again!

YAH FOR CONSISTENCY!!!

antho42
Guest

Speaking of John Green, although I have not read his novels, I am a big fan of his videos on Youtube. He does the Crash Course series among others. He basically covers history and literature in short, very informative segments. I think your kids will like them, Kurt. There is also is one dedicated to the sciences, but that is done by another personality.

Goon
Guest

Gf has the novels. I’m gonna have to jump into them soon. Seems like a cut above a lot of YA writers.

Darcy
Guest

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3853&p=.htm

look at this, the film looks wank, is 2hours I wish the obvious female market out there was served up something better, apparently Malificent sold but no good, I think this will make top 10 unless front loaded, bods well for Tammy tippers but that film honestly has a worst trailer than AMWTDITW, maybe the summer is shaping up for a great anti vivosection smart political film like Dawn of Apes to sweep board, then again HTTYD2 might see with mum on Monday cheap here in Sydney, I think Edge of T will get crushed, could already tell from oversea numbers, whilst another big opening this week may stop x-men as well from cracking $200mil

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I saw The Fault in Our Stars this afternoon, it was actually pretty good, probably the best film that I’ve seen so far from the official summer season. It’s a little too long, and the writing is really bad, but the leads are so damn charming.

Funny enough, my theatre was full at Noon on a Friday afternoon. Every 16 year old girl in the city must’ve cut class to go see this thing.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Friday was the last day of school for much of the US. And the last day is rarely a full day anymore.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I live in Canada, we’re still in school.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, in Ontario at least kids are in school until the last week of June.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Sounds awful.

Philip Poirot
Guest

I think it’s possible 22 Jump Street would do to HTTYD 2 what Hangover 2 did to Kung Fu Panda 2!! Last few years Dreamworks Animation have been downright incompetent selling their movies.

matthew price
Guest

That’s it, no more contest after this year. In fact, this year’s is cancelled too, because The Dissolve says so:

http://thedissolve.com/features/exposition/613-the-summer-movie-season-is-dead/?utm_content=buffer41067&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Robert Reineke
Guest

I kind of agree with The Dissolve. Heck, it used to be that Summer movie season really started on Memorial Day weekend, which actually meant something as that’s when a lot of colleges ended the semester. There’s no real practical difference beforehand. Heck, timing an opening for spring break might mean more in practical terms than the first week in May. Summer movie season is more a state of mind than an actual season.

I’d actually frame it more like this:

January 1 to Valentine’s Day: The time you dump your failed movies, expand the Oscar contenders, and invest in counterprogramming.

Valentine’s Day to mid-March: The time to roll out your mid-sized films. You don’t want to draw too much attention from your Oscar contenders and Christmas holdovers. And you want to take whatever post-Oscar bump there is

mid-March to mid-August: Blockbuster season

mid-August to mid-September: The new school year takes up too much attention. Dumping grounds.

mid-September to October: Time to roll out the horror franchises, and early Oscar contenders. Also festival season.

November to December: Second blockbuster season and positioning of Oscar contenders.

rot
Guest

So where is the fanfare for Dragons? This is the big one, and I haven’t seen squat or heard squat about it… it opens today right?

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

People are saying 68m & 54m for dragon and Jump Street. Seeming like another Wall-E/Wanted weekend.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Update: Nikki Finke is saying, at the moment, Jump Street at 59-65m and dragon at 47-52m.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Slay it, baby.

rot
Guest

All I need to know is when I can say Gamble’s sure thing is once again wrong. I’ll give it a week but I think Dragons is not the draw I was assured it would be.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Amen, brother. 🙂

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Where Has Everybody Gone?

No comments? Seriously, did these numbers scare the living daylights out of the lot of you?

Nathan Austin
Guest

My picks this year have been too depressingly bad to comment on the box office numbers too much. This week was another big swing and a miss on my predictions for HTTYD 2 & 22 JS opening weekend predictions. And I see quite a few of you at least nailed the 22 Jump Street number at $60 million, congrats, wish I knew what that feels like 🙂

P.S.-If Trannies 4 with it’s 157 MINUTE RUNNING TIME ends up the highest grosser for the summer, my fear of humanity will deepen with sadness and befuddlement.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I guess I underestimated the sequel to a dumb comedy, which I decided to skip because I wasn’t the craziest about the first.

I still think HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 will be the film that lasts.

Philip Poirot
Guest

So the lowest predicted number for ‘How To Train Your Dragon 2’ opening weekend was 74 mil and it goes as high as 140 mil. Ya, we got that right!!

antho42
Guest

The World Cup probably has had an effect.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Did you watch Soccer this weekend, because I and the rest of Alberta sure as heck didn’t.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Yes

Chef
Guest

Not in the US. No one gives a shit about soccer here except 10yr girls.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

HAHAHA, this post rocks. Heel recognize Heel.

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