Mamo #347: Days of Future Last

Summer begins now! Welcome to the annual Mamo Summer Box Office Competition, and this, our kickoff episode – in which the Matts lay out their vague theories on how things will go down in the domestic marketplace for the summer of 2014.

To download this episode, use this URL:

THE CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED. Best of luck to all entrants! Here’s the grosses tabulator for this year.


THE SUMMER STARTS ON MAY 1 AND ENDS ON AUGUST 31, in terms of movies you can pick. Please work by domestic release dates only and with domestic grosses only. Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over.

Players will submit the following:

Top ten films, in order of total grosses. Also total gross $ amount and opening weekend gross $ amount. So as an example, submissions should look like this:

1. Kind Hearts and Coronets, $402 million, $175 million
2. The Ruling Class, $375 million, $150 million

Points awarded for:

A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.

B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.

C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.

D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.

E. 10 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $1 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

F. 5 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $5 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

G. 1 Bonus Point for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $10 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross AND within $1 million of the opening weekend gross.

F. For the purposes of calculating weekends – Films opening on a Wednesday are counted until the first Sunday they are released. Films opening on Memorial Day weekend are counted until the following Monday. Films opening the week of July 4 are counted from whenever they open in that week until the first Sunday of their release. Example – Spiderman opens on Tuesday, July 3. Your guess for weekend gross would actually be its 6 day total, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday


  1. I was near the bottom of the rankings last year, so all I can hope is that I get a somewhat better score. I do agree that How to Train Your Dragon 2 is most likely the one to beat.

    Here goes nothing:
    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $450M, $100M
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $325M, $85M
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $300M, $125M
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $225M, $100M
    5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $180M, $70M
    6. A Million Ways to Die in the West, $160, $40M
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy, $150M, $60M
    8. 22 Jump Street, $125M, $30M
    9. Godzilla, $110M, $50M
    10. Edge of Tomorrow, $95M, $40M

  2. 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past 342m / 145m
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction 340m / 135m
    3. How to Train Your Dragon II 260m / 75m
    4. The Amazing Spider-Man II 259m / 95m
    5. Guardians of the Galaxy 180m / 65m
    6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 179m / 65m
    7. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 175m / 60m
    8. 22 Jump Street 170m / 55m
    9. Maleficent 155m / 55m
    10. Godzilla 145m / 53m

  3. And for the sake of everybody having the information all in one place, here’s mine. Spoilers for today’s episode.

    1. How to Train your Dragon 2 – $400, $85
    2. Trans4mers – $340, $100
    3. X-Men DOFP – $260, $110
    4. Amazing Spider Man 2 – $240, $125
    5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $202, $80
    6. 22 Jump Street – $198, $65
    7. Godzilla – $189, $88
    8. Jupiter Ascending – $179, $62
    9. Guardians of the Galaxy – $175, $50
    10. The Edge of Tomorrow – $151, $60

  4. And Mine:

    How to train Your Dragon 2 – $340, $85
    Godzilla – $295, $75
    Transformers: Age of Extinction – $290, $80
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $285, $100
    X-men : Days of Future Past – $260, $100
    The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $250, $90
    Guardians of the Galaxy – $220, $70
    22 Jump Street – $180, $55
    A Million Ways to Die in the West – $170, $55
    Hercules – $150, $40

  5. Heads up, when looking at the Dark of the Moon opening weekend number(98m), keep in mind that it made 65m the previous 2 days. Same thing with Revenge of the Fallen, 109m opening weekend but also made 91m on wed/thurs. Same thing with Amazing Spider-Man, 62m opening weekend with 75m already in the bank.

  6. I would like to welcome myself to the BO game… as my first year in ….

    My outside pick is that I’m banking Neighbors to do well and Deliver Us From Evil to be the great Horror film of the summer this year…

    Format: Name, Total, Opening Weekend

    How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), $350, $140
    The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2), $300, $125
    Godzilla (May 16) $255, $130
    Transformers 4 (June 27), $220, $110
    Deliver Us From Evil (July 2), $200, $80
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11), $160, $90
    X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), $150, $75
    22 Jump Street (June 13), $140, $80
    Neighbors (May 9), $100, $70

    • Welcome, bro. As a fan of your casts, including the fantasy film league eps, it’s cool to see you join in the fun. BTW, you’re missing one more film from your top 10. Don’t throw away those precious points.

    • Thanks to Tum Tum below for pointing out I had a copy error and lost my 10th film… here we go the correct predictions

      Format: Name, Total, Opening Weekend

      How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), $350, $140
      The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2), $300, $125
      Godzilla (May 16) $255, $130
      Transformers 4 (June 27), $220, $110
      Deliver Us From Evil (July 2), $200, $80
      Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11), $160, $90
      X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), $150, $75
      22 Jump Street (June 13), $140, $80
      Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1), $130, $70
      Neighbors (May 9), $100, $70

  7. The spreadsheet has been dusted off and will be ready to go May 1st. I will wait until then to collect everyone’s selections and publish it as last year they tended to evolve during the month causing some confusion.

    But to help those with their picks, here is a link to the current list of movies being released this summer as reported by Box Office Mojo today:

    Release dates can change (who can forget the points lost by many when GI Joe fled the summer?) or have been missed by BOM so you shouldn’t take that list as your only options. I can and will update it to reflect all your choices.

  8. Another year, another inevitable entry that will be towards the bottom of the leaderboard:

    How 2 Train Your Dragon – 350, 85
    Transdinos: 310, 80
    Extremely Mutant Ninja Turtles: 300, 90
    X-Men: ZOMGWTF – 250, 80
    Spider-Meh 2: 220, 75
    A Million Ways: 200, 55
    D’Apes: 170, 60
    22 Jump Street: 165,75
    Guardians of the Galaxy: 150, 65
    Homercles Cares Not For Beans: 150, 50

  9. A Million Ways To Die in the West will fail, both because everyone had their fill of Seth after TED, and more importantly, the bulk of the American public simply doesn’t bother with WESTERNS. Think Lone Ranger and Cowboys & Aliens.

  10. How to Train Your Dragon 2 358 / 95
    Transmorphers 304 / 98
    Spider-Man 262 / 106
    X-Men 247 / 106
    Godzilla 199 / 79
    Planet of the Apes 195 / 77
    A Million Ways to Die in the West 177 / 50
    Guardians of the Galaxy 168 / 63
    22 Jump Street 163 / 60
    Herc 150 / 45

  11. I was going to wait until later in the month to post but any news or trailers may be more distracting than informative. Remember how excited we were when the Man Of Steel trailer came out? Here we go again, fourth (or fifth?) time lucky:

    1. How To Train Your Dragon 2: $74M, $345
    2. Transformers Age Of Extinction: $84M, $330
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $81M, $265M
    4. X-Men: Days Of Future Past: $91M (Memorial Day weekend figure), $235M
    5. Guardians Of The Galaxy: $76M, $225M
    6. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes: $65M, $194M
    7. Godzilla: $58M, $185M
    8. 22 Jump Street: $43M, $155M
    9. Maleficent: $41M, $130M
    10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: $35M, $100M.

    Thank you Mamo, Row Three and GE Hale

  12. 1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 , $380M, $85M
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $310M, $130M
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $265M, $99M
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $260M, $85M
    5. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $240M, $110M
    6. Godzilla, $220M, $80M
    7. A Million Ways to Die in the West, $186M, $50M
    8. Guardians of the Galaxy, $62M, $152M
    9. Tammy, $40M, $150M
    10. 22 Jump Street, $45M, $145M

    That’s right, I’m going with 3 comedies in the top 10. 4 if you count GotG.

    • Man, I just noticed the formatting on my entry is clearly mixing total and open weekend totals at random. Helpful note for clarification, the larger number is the predicted total.

  13. 1 How To Train Your Dragon 2 (365m, 95m)
    2 Godzilla (335m, 105m)
    3 Transformers (265m, 100m)
    4 Spider Man 2 (250m, 85m)
    5 Planet Of The Apes (240m, 80m)
    6 X-Men (190m, 65m)
    7 Blended (170m, 70m)
    8 Jupiter Ascending (165m, 60m)
    9 Guardians Of The Galaxy (150m, 55m)
    10 Think Like A Man 2 (140m, 55m)

  14. 1.) Jersey Boys (550,200)
    2.) The Fault in Our Starts (295, 100)
    3.) Million Dollar Arm (270, 90)
    4.) Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (250,65)
    5.) Planes: Fire and Resuce (240, 77)
    6.) Belle (235, 81)
    7.) Frank Millers Sin City (210, 60)
    8.) The Fluffy Movie (200, 50)
    9.) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (190, 50)
    10.) Sex Tape (155, 55)

  15. I think even with Cap performing so well right now. Marvel studios will have their first bomb with Guardians. Every time I see the trailer in the theater the audience has no reaction to it. I’m not sure who’s the target audience their aiming for with that one.

  16. Geez this is a tough year to speculate…

    How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $409, $106
    Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $304, $110
    Godzilla – $270, $75
    Transformers 4 – $264, $84
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $253, $68
    X-Men: Days of Futures Past – $222, $83
    Maleficent – $180, $41
    Guardians of the Galaxy – $154, $38
    Tammy – $148, $34
    Sex Tape – $136, $31

  17. 1. How to Train Your Dragon 380/$140
    2.Transformers: Age of Extinction 290/$95
    3. Godzilla 275/$110
    4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 230/$85
    5. Neighbors 220/$55
    6. 22 Jump Street 2 215/$75
    7. Maleficent 210/$65
    8. X-Men: Days of Future Past 195/$75
    9. Edge of Tomorrow 170/$68
    10. Guardians of the Galaxy 165/$45

  18. Here we go again!
    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, 410M, 105M
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, 300M, 90M
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, 245M, 90M
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, 210M, 65M
    5. X-Men: Days of Future Past, 205M, 90M
    6. Guardians of the Galaxy, 190M, 70M
    7. 22 Jump Street, 180M, 60M
    8. Maleficent, 160M, 50M
    9. Godzilla, 150M, 50M
    10. Edge of Tomorrow, 135M, 40M

    • I almost always one of the last if not the last person to enter at the end of the month. I don’t do it as a conscious decision, just April is always a really busy month for me. With so much going on, I always put off spendingsome time to do some research until the day of. Then I’m literally looking up films on Box Office Mojo just before the midnight deadline wishing I had more time throwing together a list before my time is up.

      Of course, this last minute list has won me the contest twice. Of course, most years I’ve landed somewhere in the middle of the list, so I think it’s been more luck than anything.

  19. Let’s go with:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, 400M, 88M
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction, 340M, 84M
    3. X-Men: Days of Future Past, 270M, 98M
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, 260M, 75M
    5. Godzilla, 250M, 75M
    6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, 240M, 78M
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy, 230M, 85M
    8. Maleficent, 190M, 63M
    9. 22 Jump Street, 180M, 46M
    10. Edge of Tomorrow, 160M, 51M

  20. I’m betting on stupid.

    1. Transformers: Age of Extinction 397 / 110
    2. How To Train your Dragon 2 320 / 79
    3. Spiderman 2 319 / 87
    4. X-Men 300 / 80
    5. Godzilla 299 / 65
    6. Guardians of the Galaxy. 250 / 60
    7. Jupiter Ascending 236 / 60
    8. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 209 / 50
    9. Hercules 189 / 60
    10. Planes: Fire and Rescue 159 / 40

  21. How to Train your Dragon 2 360/85
    Trans4mers 305/100
    Spiderman 2 300/105
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 275/90
    Godzilla 265/90
    X-Men 235/75
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 210/75
    Guardians of the Galaxy 185/60
    A Million Ways to Die in the West 165/50
    Sex Tape 150/55

  22. 1. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $320 , $115
    2. How to Train Your Dragon II, $300 , $80
    3. The Amazing Spider-Man II, $265 , $110
    4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $255 , $75
    5. Godzilla (2014), $235 , $75
    6. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $230 , $108
    7. Maleficent, $190 , $60
    8. Guardians of the Galaxy, $180 , $65
    9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, $160 , $65
    10. 22 Jump Street, $150 , $50

    Thank you Mamo, Row Three and GE Hale…

  23. 1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 $466M, $125M
    2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $425M, $105M
    3. Malificent, $350M, $100M
    4. Transformers: Age of Extinction, $330M, $85M
    5. Guardians of the Galaxy, $220M, $95M
    6. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $190M, $85M
    7. Godzilla, $155M, $75M
    8. A Million Days to Die in the West, $150M, $40M
    9. Hercules, $145M, $55M
    10. 22 Jump Street, $120M, $35M

  24. My Skin in the Game:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2, $370 , $95
    2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2, $250 , $105
    3. Godzilla (2014), $244 , $75
    4. Planet of the Apes 2, $240 , $99
    5. Transformers 4, $230, $108
    6. Maleficent $200, $85
    7. 22 Jump St., $175, $55
    8. Tammy $170, $41
    9. Guardians of the Galaxy, $165, $55
    10. X-Men: Days of Future Past, $145, $65

    • How to Train Your Dragon made $217 domestic. I don’t see the sequel taking top spot of the summer. It feels like an unnecessary sequel, the first one was great but great because of the story of hiccup and toothless and how it changed the village culminating in a fight with the biggest baddest Dragon… this one feels like a desperate retread.

      Transformers feels like a reboot, and it has the added allure of Dinobots which everyone fucking loves. I am actually interested in it, and I have had zero interest in the others, because the annoying Shia/Megan Fox thing is stripped out of it. Transformers 3 made $352 in 2011, 3 years ago! I think my guess of $397m is playing it conservative. I have come to realize form past contests, I always under-value what the big things will make and I under-value the importance of stupid, the more big loud and stupid it looks, the more money it will make.

      Also Brave was something of a flop for Pixar, and I think in the average person’s mind, HTTYD is playing in that kind of historical niche, similar aesthetic. It will do well because it is the only big animated film around, but I don’t see it being THE ONE.

      • Shrek 1 = $268M Domestic
        Shrek 2 = $417M Domestic.

        Don’t tell me that Shrek 2 was necessary, they wrapped everything up in the first one, and look at that bump.

        • yeah I guess being unnecessary has never been a factor with summer movies. I still think Dragon 2 is too niche and too smart for Shrek numbers. Jay Baruchel is no Mike Myers.

          • How to Train Your Dragon ranks around 150 all-time on IMDb based on 290K ratings, Shrek doesn’t even rank based on 340K ratings.

            Despicable Me doesn’t rank either, and that is based on 240K ratings.

          • It should also be noted that the film is based on a bestselling book series that is still ongoing, and their is also an animated television series based on the franchise. Their were changes from the first book to the film, but their is a wealth of material to draw from for future movies if Dreamworks chooses to progress past 3.

          • Meanwhile How To Train Your Dragon has a 91% rating from 299K users (not critics but users) on Rotten Tomatoes. Comparison to the mentioned Despicable Me, that got a 82% from 251K users of RT.

            People of all ages just seem to love that movie and it seems hardly anyone saw it when it first came out. So much of the audience found it via home video & Netflix. At this point the sequel could be a complete bloody mess and the sequel would still be bringing in huge gobs of cash based off of love of the original. That said, since it’s based off a successful book series, I’m going to guess the sequel works.

          • The film had great word of mouth, I think we played it for 16 weeks or so, which is just ridiculous in a mainstream theatre. Which only blew up more once home video hit.

      • Yeah if I was a player, I’d put Transformers at the top as well. I actually like Phillip’s list above. I liked the last Transformers movie (truth be told, I think all of them are better than the critical reception – not great, but not “the worst thing ever”).

        HTTYD2 will probably end up being on top simply because it’s the animated movie of the year. But I’d put T4 on top simply going for the points in this contest.

      • The first how to train your dragon was released on March 26th, 2010. I think there’s considerable difference between a March release, and and June one. People go see more things in the summer. Plus young children are more likely to see things in June and July then they are in March and April.

        Maybe I’m way out to lunch, but that’s just what I thought.

  25. I’m seeing lots of underrating of Neighbors (which I think has the biggest spoiler potential of the summer, despite not putting it on my list) and a ton of overrating of Planet of the Apes which I am betting fewer people will care about once release time hits.

  26. Hey everybody, my name is Adam Grover. I did a podcast detailing the summer as well as providing my entry for this contest alongside sometimes commenter Thomas Wishloff

    You can find the podcast here:

    1.) How to Train Your Dragon (400, 90)
    2.) X-Men: Days of Futures Past (375, 110)
    3.) Transformers 4 (350, 105)
    4.) Godzilla (310, 90)
    5.) Amazing Spider Man II (305, 09)
    6.) 22 Jump Street (300, 50)
    7.) Maleficent (250, 60)
    8.) Guardians of the Galaxy (230, 75)
    9.) Edge of Tomorrow (200,60)
    10.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (175, 40)

    Good luck to all involved!

  27. Here’s my entry.

    1.) How to Train Your Dragon 2 (385, 105)
    2.) Transformers 4 (310, 110)
    3.) The Amazing Spider-Man II (270, 90)
    4.) X-Men: Days of Our Lives (255, 100)
    5.) Godzilla (230, 70)
    6.) 22 Jump Street (210, 60)
    7.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (200, 65)
    8.) A Million Ways to Die in the West (170, 60)
    9.) Guardians of the Galaxy (155, 70)
    10.) Jupiter Ascending (145, 50)

    Be sure to check out the podcast I did with Adam Grover (:, and I’ll see you at the bottom of the leader board.

  28. Hey everyone, my name is Adam Grover. I did a podcast with sometimes commenter Thomas Wishloff on our entries for this contest. You can find the podcast here:

    Here is my entry:
    1.) How to Train Your Dragon (400, 90)
    2.) X-Men: Days of Futures Past (375, 110)
    3.) Transformers 4 (350, 105)
    4.) Godzilla (310, 90)
    5.) Amazing Spider Man II (305, 09)
    6.) 22 Jump Street (300, 50)
    7.) Maleficent (250, 60)
    8.) Guardians of the Galaxy (230, 75)
    9.) Edge of Tomorrow (200,60)
    10.) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (175, 40)

  29. It is quite curious that a contestant can get the opening weekend numbers and total gross numbers right (acquiring 20 points) and not get in the top 10 list (maybe the 11th position) and still acquire 29 points for a single entry! Am I correct about the technicalities? If I am, then hypothetically someone can still win this contest by having the least number of correct top 10 entries but getting most of the box office numbers exactly. Funny eh?

  30. Trans4mers 400, 125
    How to Train your Dragon 2 350, 100
    Godzilla 320, 100
    Amazing Spider Man 250, 90
    Guardians of the Galaxy 240, 65
    Maleficent 200, 60
    X-Men DOFP 190, 70
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 185, 60
    22 Jump St 180, 60
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 165, 65

  31. How to Train Your Dragon 2 365, 110
    Amazing Spider Man 2 (280, 90)
    X-Men Days Of Future Passed (265, 95)
    Trans4mers (248, 80)
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (218, 74)
    Godzilla (203, 70)
    Maleficent (194. 65)
    22 Jump Street (156, 51)
    Tammy (139, 44)
    A Million Ways to Die (128, 45)

  32. 1)How To Train Your Dragon 2 $328, $79
    2)Transformers: Send To Scrap Heap $282, $81
    3)Spider-Man 2 Again $260, $98
    4)Dawn of the Grape Apes $226, $70
    5)X-Men: Back to the Future $224, $97
    6)Maleficent $175, $61
    7)Godzilla $172, $65
    8)Guardians of the Galaxy $170, $62
    9)22 Jump Street $150, $49
    10)Tammy $147, $54

  33. how to train your dragon 370, 122
    transformers 330, 110
    x-men 275, 91
    spiderman 240, 105.5
    dawn of the apes 220, 73
    godzilla 200, 66
    guardians of the galaxy 185, 65
    maleficient 155, 55
    22 jump street 150, 44
    neighbors 140, 43

  34. Living in England i pay next to no attention to the box office in US & Canada and barely look at the British box office.

    So what i’m saying is i am not a threat in this contest 😀 but thought why not have a go anyway

    How to Train Your Dragon 2 $390m/$95m
    Transformers: Age of Extinction $330m/$85m
    The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $260m/$70m
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $255m/$65m
    Godzilla $250m/$60m
    X-Men: Days of Future Past $230m /$80m
    Guardians of the Galaxy $200m/ $65m
    A Million Ways to Die in the West $180m/$50m
    Tammy $150m/ $45m
    Maleficent $140m / $40m

    I had Godzilla as being a flop until i saw all the ballots and still think i should have 22 Jump street in here somehwere

  35. Interesting experiment I don’t like entering stuff like this because I have little care for anything outside what interests me.

    I will just use the Box Office Mojo rankings and see how they work for me.

    1. How to Train You Dragon 2 (110, 325)
    2. DoFP (95, 290)
    3. TF AE (65, 285)
    4. Apes (50, 240)
    5. Zilla (70, 230)
    6. ASM2 (90, 225)
    7. GoTG (100, 180)
    8. Maleficent (65, 150)
    9. Neighbors (50, 140)
    10. 22 Jump Street (65, 135)

  36. How to Train Your Dragon 2: $357,000,000, $98,000,000
    Godzilla: $ 282,000,000: $98,000,000
    Transformers: Age of Extinction: $275,000,000, $126,000,000
    Amazing Spider man 2: $273,000,000, $85,000,000
    X men Days of Future Past: $265,000,000, $105,000,000
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: $225,000,000, 77,000,000
    22 Jump Street: $185,000,000, $72,000,000
    Guardians of the Galaxy: $110,000,000, $72,000,000
    TMNT : $105,000,000, 83,000,000
    Hercules: $95,000,000, $61,000,000

  37. I have updated the entry for clarity’s sake. Let me know if you guys also need me to update Rick Vance’s entry above – I find the idea that DRAGON 2 is going to earn a hundred and ten bucks pretty hard to believe.

  38. 1. How To Train Your Dragon 2, $380 million, $85 million
    2. Transformers: AoE, $290, $85
    3. Spider-Man 2, $270 million, $80 million
    4. X-Men: DoFP, $260 million, $95 million
    5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $210 million, $70 million
    6. Godzilla, $190 million, $65 million
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy, $170 million, $60 million
    8. 22 Jump Street, $150 million, $50 million
    9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turles, $125 million, $50 million
    10. Maleficent, $120 million, $40 million

  39. HITYD2 $84m $356m
    Tran4mers $92m $278m
    DOTPOTA $81m $253m
    Spidy 2 $89m $248m
    X-Men 2 $71m $224m
    Godzilla $76m $217m
    GOTG $70m $195m
    Malificent $63m $171m
    22JumpSt $54m $160m
    Tammy $42m $153m

  40. Damn… I’m 46 minutes late. With the whole Rob Ford new crack new video and other crazy news I completely forgot I had to get my picks. I’m putting together my numbers now even if I will be officially out of the race to win the DVD/blu-ray, I would still like to play just the game part of it.

  41. I know I’m late and disqualified from winning, but I would appreciate it to be included in the giant Google doc just to play along and see how I rank. Thanks.

    Here’s my list that I didn’t nearly spend enough time thinking about:
    1) How to Train Your Dragon 2, $415, $110
    2) Transformers 4 – $352, $130
    3) X-Men: Days of Future Past – $285, $135
    4) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $255, $72
    5) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – $250, $71
    6) Godzilla – $202, $68
    7) Maleficent – $190, $65
    8) Guardians of the Galaxy – $175, $55
    9) 22 Jump Street – $150, $50
    10) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles – $110, $40

    I didn’t know where to put A Million Ways To Die or particularly any of the other comedies, so I just didn’t included them. Except 22 Jump Street which I’m really just basing off the success of the first one.

    Also I had a hard time getting a read on Jupiter Ascending and The Edge of Tomorrow, so I also kept them off my list rather than get them horribly wrong.

  42. The how to abuse the scoring system ineligible entry:

    1. Belle, $1M OW, $5M Total
    2. Documented, $1M OW, $5M Total
    3. Walk of Shame, $1M OW, $5M Total
    4. The Hornet’s Nest, $1M OW, $5M Total
    5. Palo Alto, $1M OW, $5M Total
    6. Ai Wei Wei: The Fake Case, $1M OW, $5M Total
    7. Next Year Jerusalem, $1M OW, $5M Total
    8. Gore Vidal: United States of Amnesia, $1M OW, $5M Total
    9. We are the Best, $1M OW, $5M Total
    10. Borgman, $1M OW, $5M Total

    Obviously you’d miss out on all the ranking points, but I’d no doubt come within $1M on all the opening weekends, racking up 100 points right there, and within $5M on the totals racking up another 100 points. You’d win the thing by mid June.

    That’s completely not within the spirit of the game, so maybe a rule that your lowest total has to be at least $100 million in the future.

      • This is an excellent point, and terrific game theory. Next year’s contest will include a rule that at all of your entries have to appear in the top 40 grossers of the summer in order to qualify.

        • Question, would that imply that if one of your films wasn’t in the top 40 all of your picks would be ineligible? It would be kind of unfair if someone seriously picked something like “Apollo 18” and had their entry thrown out.

          • Nope, it would be entirely fair. If you are that far off the mark on any pick you can’t win. Unless Mr. Reineke would care to suggest an alternative?

          • Also Apollo 18 was released on September 2 (the last possible release date that summer) and still came 41st, so honestly I’m not sure this would ever be an issue. No winner thus far would have been disqualified, and any other disqualifications don’t affect the outcomes.

          • G.I. Joe: Retaliation, which many peoplepickpicked in good faith is the problem with that rule.

          • I’d suggest setting minimum values of $12 million for opening weekend and perhaps $100 million total to weed out the bottom feeder strategy. Or set a scheduled screen minimum.

          • You have plenty of time to tweak the rules. Honestly I have nothing against reserving the right on May 1st to DQ anyone that’s not observing the spirit of the contest. The contest is spice to spur discussion and not something that needs to be bogged down with rules to prevent gremlins.

          • I think you just need to eliminate “Apollo 18”, you can keep the rest of their picks as long as they make it into the top 40.

            So you just can’t make points off of films that fall under the top 40 threshold.

            I also think that a top 40 cut off makes more sense than a 18mil and under cutoff. But that’s just a hunch, I could be wrong.

    • This man is a genius who kept the opportunity for evil in check. Well done.

      Someone better be checking in on this fake entry to see if it would have indeed won.

      • If I was playing this strategy for real, I would have chosen some even more obscure films opening up this Summer to assure 200 points, but I just aimed for the May / June releases to get the point across.

        I do expect that these picks would at least contend though. Belle’s opening on 4 screens this weekend, that’s 10 points right there.

      • FWIW, Belle, Walk of Shame, and Documented all opened to less than $1 million this weekend, so there’s 30 points in the theoretical bank right there. Belle might end up making some money as it platforms out, it really wasn’t the best pick for the exercise, but Walk of Shame and Documented are certainly going to make way less than $10 million.

        • FWIW We would have disqualified you on general principles. Of course, you could take us to small claims for the value of a Criterion, but this seems unlikely 🙂

          • I intend to win that Criterion the straight up way. With honor. Unlike Matt Gamble who totally would have pushed it if he was clever enough to spot the hole in the rules.

  43. Ok, the spreadsheet is completed for this year. Please let me know if there are any errors or omissions. As in previous years, I have used the “seeded” ranking as the main ranking which uses the collective predictions as a way to determine which selections are more likely but the raw data is also available for those who want it.

    The Row Three collective thinks the summer will shake out thusly:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2:$359.9M,$98.0M
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction:$302.4M,$99.7M
    3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes:$271.3M,$71.3M
    4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2:$263.6M,$95.2M
    5. X-Men: Days of Future Past:$238.2M,$93.8M
    6. Godzilla (2014):$222.5M,$77.3M
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy:$176.1M,$65.6M
    8. 22 Jump Street:$155.9M,$55.4M
    9. Maleficent:$150.6M,$60.6M
    10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014):$123.5M,$64.2M

    In case I haven’t explained this before, I do a little trickery for the gross prediction to deal with the fact that if I just average the movies when people select them, it will overestimate the collective guess. This is because I don’t have data of movies that people do not put on their list which are presumably the movies that individual thinks will do poorly. I was not sure how to deal with this so I just assume that if you did not select a movie, you believe it will make exactly $100M. Perhaps that threshold should be a little higher, but it is just a guess anyways. I didn’t bother to do this for openings so they are likely a little higher than a collective guess as people who did put the movie on their list (and therefore presumable think it will do poorer) are not counted.
    TLDR version: Take the numbers with a grain of salt (suffers from selection bias) but the positional ranking is solid.

    You can find the spreadsheet at:


  44. So, how about THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2? No doubt it will make a lot of money, but is anybody really excited to see it?

    I hate to call any artistic enterprise “product”, but this seems to come as close as anything to fitting the bill.

    • I over-estimated the box office of this movie. I thought this movie is just terrible and all over the place and given the rotten tomatoes score, there is no way it makes more than $250 mil. Firstly, this is the first weekend of may release and secondly, TASM 2 has gigantic marketing budget. These two factors convinced me that it would do well. Now, I am not so sure.

      • Don’t worry you’re not alone! I grossly overvalued how much people actually liked the first movie considering that people always tell me, “oh I loved that first movie, Andrew Garfield is so much better than Toby Maguire”! I actually don’t think that anyone likes that first movie, they were just deluded by the fact that it wasn’t Toby Maguire, who is a popular whipping boy.

  45. Did u get my entry, I saw Spiderman two weeks ago, really poor film, opening will make up for lack of legs, was tempted to say malificent will flunk and wild bet on Lucy to make good $$ in august~september

  46. seems non of my comments get thry, anyway just wanna say that Spiderman 2 is any pants script by Kurtzman/Orci, saw it just to get idea of 2014, I recokn could be a really wank year, I still think DOTPOTA & X-Men should come thru good, I really want to see 4 films on my top ten, guess that was 5.

    • Darcy – a bunch of your comments got stuck in Spam limbo (we’ve been getting killed lately). You turned in your picks before midnight last night so you’re all good I think.

      • hey thanks whatever I submitted take that as entry, I hope I can be added to GE-Hale’s predictor grid etc…

        Interstellar trailer front of Godzilla, thats a $10m bump

        • Sure I can put you in the calcutron but it seems you are short one selection on your dollar amounts. I doubled up our last selection for now, but if you give me a value for 22 Jump Street, I can update it.

          • 8 – Maleficent 175 62
            9 – Tammy 163 48
            10 – 22Jump St153 52

            there’s my bottom 3 if that’s possible to change…

    • All scripts by Kurtzman/Orci are SHIT. End of story. Those guys are ruining blockbuster genre cinema at a rate exponentially faster than the Devlin/Emmerich ever were in the 1990s.

      • This reminds me, I need to go back and do a “rewatch and reevaluate” on MI:3 and The Island. Both of which I was pretty down on with their initial release.

        I like Transformers 3. Sue me.

        • Ah, the exception that proves the rule, “THE ISLAND” is my favourite Michael Bay movie. Certainly not for its screenplay (although in my mind, there was some control over the worst impulses by author/screenwriter Caspian Tredwell-Owen).

          MI:3 is a disaster however, an utter bad-TV-ish mess.

          • I believe Orci is directing the third Star Trek movie so at last the Orci auteur vision will be realized.

            I like their Star Trek movies so there.

          • alex kurtzman does Venom, they will end up stinking the good part of two decades, I hearby boycott them because boy did Spidy 2 stuff up a good cast, decent first film, big budget, prefect summer box office pose…

  47. Amazing Spider-Man 2 is on pace to make $89 to $95 million in its 1st weekend. Quite a few folks have a chance at nailing the opening weekend number, especially if it ends up close to $90 million since many had $90 million as the 1st weekend number.

    • I’m assuming word of mouth is pretty negative for this film, so I’m also assuming that what the movie makes this first weekend is going to be the marker of how well the movie does.

    • Well, I really messed up with my Amazing Spider-Man 2 pick. I realized now I was looking at the very low opening weekend of the original Amazing Spider-man, not realizing it had opened on a Tuesday resulting in a very low Friday to Saturday.

      • I tried to give you guys the heads up about this exact mislead in one of my earlier posts above. Oh well. 😛

        Transformers 4 is in the same boat, lots of folks getting tricksied by 2&3’s misleading OW.

        • Yup, way back when this thread first started. I’m pretty sure I had read that earlier but completely forgot about it a month or so later when putting together my picks.

          Also I was unfortunately in a big rush having already missed the deadline because I was caught up in reading about the latest Rob Ford crack video and reaction online. All that night news story after news story was dripping out.

          That said, it’s curious that with the exception of holiday weekends, very few films are opening earlier on Wednesdays or Thursdays or Tuesdays.

  48. Goon and Vance look like the only 2 with a shot at bonus points on the ASM2 grosses. Mid week, with no competish, this thing is just crawling. Pun intended.

      • I dunno, it just crawled (there’s that word again) over the $100M mark yesterday… assuming it only loses 50% on weekend 2 (which I’d call generous), it’s gonna end up in the $160M frame at best by end of weekend.

        It’ll get past the $200M mark shortly before X-MEN comes out, but methinks it’s not going to get much higher than that.

        But what the hell do I know, I was needlessly bullish on this project a month ago.

        • I’ll be stunned if it tops $220. It needs Godzilla to be shit so it can do anything next weekend because it’s going to lose it’s audience and its screens the following weekend with X-Men.

  49. Neighbors will be interesting. It looks like Darwin has a good shot at picking up bonus points based on some of the early predictions.

    • Saturday morning estimates have Neighbors projected for an unexpected higher than expected gross of at least around $50 million. Only four people had Neighbors on their list, this is good news for them. Looks like being the first big comedy out of the gate for the summer is going to payoff for Neighbors.

      • Man, I hate it when I kind a comedy funny, yet I was not a fan of the actual plot.

        I felt the more or less the same thing about 21 JUMP STREET and I am probably going to end up skipping 22 JUMP STREET altogether.

      • maybe summer will be big enough for neighbors not to make the ten but when u look at it has all the right ingredients to make the ten and the trailers have me keen, for this and 22J St for crase 2010’s humor. here in oz it was number one last weekend just on previews.

  50. Visually Godzilla is right up there wwith Monsters, great opening 10 mins I’d say, great title sequence, vvery good setting lost on half fleshed out script, alsp I thpought this folktalele was anti nuclear, sort of is, sshould open moremore tHan Spidy, also can’t deny that malificent if it hits will make $200m easy, x men just too good a cast, must past $100mil opening, Interstellar trailer good, saww about 24hrs ago, still think worst Tagline ever like too see link between burning mono crops and going down worm holes to findd some sustainable calories.

  51. My friend is at Cannes this year (I couldn’t afford it this time) and managed to get into the premiere of How To Train Your Dragon 2. He said it was amazing. I can’t wait and hope it makes tonnes of cash!

  52. Was not expecting to be that colossally disappointed by Godzilla but that movie is a gigantic waste of space.

    Kneecapped by a terrible script, terrible leads (for the most part), and focus problems.


  53. The big mistake I made was to watch the 1954 Godzilla in prep for the 2014 Godzilla. Watching them close together shows the original to have so much more wit, intelligence and pathos. By comparison, 2014 is just shoddy and poor and lacking in any emotional impact or allegorical smarts.

    Yes, the spectacle is indeed grand, but there is so little beyond that; at least on 1st watch. There are a lot of talented actors here giving some of the worst performances of their careers.

    • Ken Watanabe stood out the most. Bryan Cranston, Juliette Binoche, and Elizabeth Olsen were all a bit wasted. Aaron Taylor-Johnson did his job.

      I have yet to see the original 1954 film, but I still feel that Gareth Edwards did a good job at being respectful to Godzilla’s Japanese roots (at the very least more than Roland Emmerich).

      Edwards even says so in the following quote “The way I tried to view it was: imagine Godzilla was a real creature and someone from Toho saw him in the 1950s and ran back to the studio to make a movie about the creature and was trying their best to remember and draw it… and in our film you get to see him for real. It was important that this felt like a Toho Godzilla.”

      While the film most definitely could have been better on the human front (and MONSTERS is much better in that area), I can still say that I left the film happy.

  54. I’m starting to believe I’ve over estimated everything… so far every film I’ve inflated the opening weekend by 20-30M…

    Am I the only one feeling that Godzilla may trample XMen this weekend?

    • At least you were wise enough to include Neighbors, a film that I thought would be trampled by the second week of Spider-man.

      I think X-Men will prevail over the long weekend, but I do not see it lasting long in people’s minds. The studio should have marketed the Jennifer Lawrence factor a lot more than they have. Even if she is only in the film for a few minutes (ala Drew Barrymore in Scream), she is still the film’s biggest draw right now. People love Jackman’s Wolverine but he is not a character that they are dying to see for two summers in a row. Plus, relying on the Fast Five style “we brought everyone back!” campaign can only carry them so far. Especially since nothing in the trailer so far has screamed “fun” or “cool” like the Fast Five or X2 trailers.

        • Will Godzilla hold? All I keep hearing is that the movie ranges anywhere from half-ok to flat-out-sucks. While it’s mostly cinephiles that have come out and proclaimed the thing a mess; I think that some of what is being said holds weight, and that word of mouth won’t be too kind to Godzilla. B+ on cinema score might was well be an F-

      • Having just seen Days of Future Past, I predict it will be drawing in a lot of repeat business and could potentially do the best X-Men box office yet. I will see it ast least two more times. It has everything X-Men fans want, learned from the stuff people complained about… and there is… retconning to say the least, enough that the guy who absolutely must find something to complain about might complain about it, but I don’t know why that person would.

        • Yeah, this film is made for the X-Men fans. While I still consider X2 my favourite of the series, this was probably the most solid film since then.

          Quicksilver rules!

        • What about non-fans? I saw 1 and 2 and maybe 3 (can’t remember). Never saw any of the Wolverines or the Xmen with McAvoy. Will I even know what is going on with this one? 90% chance of skipping this.

          • This is the question I’ve been asking for a year now. The one thing The Avengers has, is that it appeals to everyone, and not just Marvel fans. I dunno about this one.

          • It will be interesting watching Avengers: Age of Ultron next year and see the alternate take of Quicksilver (played by Aaron Taylor-Johnson), since the same character (played by Evan Peters) pretty much stole the show in X-Men.

          • It won’t come anywhere close to Avengers bank, but enough people come out to these X-men films that a better/the best one is going to pull a lot of coin.

            re: Seans comment below. I would not want to be Johnson having to be Quicksilver right now. Because a) He’s a bad actor and b) Singer put so much of a stamp on him it would be like watching Toby Jones’ Capote after Hoffman’s turn. “Well, he looks like Quicksilver. But Peters IS Quicksilver.”

          • I’d see First Class, but there’s enough going on with flashes back that I think you could get by.

            Maybe a bad example since I dont care for the franchise, but you’ll get by about as much as you could get by if you’ve seen Fast Five but none of the others.

            Skip it if you wish. Your loss!

  55. in for sequel unlike Spidy 3 or Godzilla 2, Fassbender McAvoy Quicksilver looks like Malcolm McDowell, this film score ripped off which film? should be first film pass $250mil, should have thought with Hugh Jackman centerfold on postrer would help boost it past $100mil for opening weekend.

  56. I’m considering coding a website that will allow you to manage and do this game on the web… I wonder if the MaMo gods (more like demi-gods; Am I right???) would bless this idea???

    ALso, do y’all like it?

    I’m sad to see X-Men tracking so hard… damn me for not knowing the US Holiday weekends off the top of my head…

    • THe awful, awful trailers. Who knew they were hiding a good movie, and that the demand is very much there, word of mouth is great. I figured one would bomb and after Valkyrie, Superman and Jack The Giant Slayer, it’d be this one.

      Singer does knock this out of the park, and I’d rather get a surprise good movie than standings in the Box Office contest, so it all worked out in the end.

      (Clean slate for next year unless I invent some sort of time travelling device.)

  57. would projections suggest that X-Men now that it has overtaken Nieghbors, will overtake Spidy then eventually Godzilla, so maybe:

    X Men $220m
    Godzilla $210m
    Spidy $200m
    Neighbors $150m

    have no interest in anything this weekend, I hope Seth’s lame humor gets assulted by that u never know, could be a good movie in Malificent, its more interestingly casted, AMWTDITW looks like urnest wank.

    • i’m down in sydney for the film fest, I wanna go and graffiti the local Edge of Tomorrow poster, that film is just sci fi capitalist maths pro miltary american wankery.

    • “Seth’s lame humor”

      I agree this new movie looks abysmal judging by trailers. But Ted was pretty decent and Family Guy is hilarious. Easily the most true lolz-per-minute show ever made (for me).

      • I’m going to run aground on Seth’s movie, unless it totally shocks everyone this weekend.

        I can’t see Maleficent having any legs judging from early reviews either, although it might open well enough.

      • Wow, someone else who actually appreciates Family Guy and doesn’t knee-jerkingly hate it because god forbid it has pop cultural humor. It’s like the haters watch the show with blinders on and the second a reference pops up they dismiss it as reference for the sake of reference, not even paying attention to the joke to see that there’s actually a clever take or observation to them. Whatever, their loss.

        • Absolutely. If people my age (38) don’t find humor in this show, I’m baffled. It isn’t so much that it’s pop culture, but more that it is really random pop culture. A lot of it is on the nose, sure, but a lot of it is stuff I totally forgot about that gets me in hysterics.

          I truly laugh out loud at things on TV/movie so very very rarely; but I am always (ALWAYS) laughing at any Family Guy episode and I’m laughing hard. About every other episode I’m actually in tears at some of the jokes.

          Just because it’s pop culture doesn’t make it lazy. If it’s funny, it’s funny. Like the time Margot Kidder stopped by for dinner.

        • We watch Family Guy every week and enjoy it. I don’t think it’s firing as well as it used to but it’s solid – most weeks better than the Simpsons. That said, it’s no Bob’s Burgers. Now THAT show is on the ball 90% of the time. So great.

        • Also, I forgot about how blatantly racist the show is too. But it’s too damn funny to really offend anyone.

          “This is worse than the time I went to that Mexican funeral…”

      • seth is a form of humor, up near in cairns I call I guy I know the seth mcfarlande of local cycling, cause he is a lame pop culture rip off artist who appeals to common demoninator.

        SEE CARTOON WARS by South Park PEOPLE

      • Just attempted to watch A Million Ways to Die in the West, and it strengthens my theory that Family Guy only got good when Seth Macfarlane left the show-writing to his team (around Series 5 and onwards). Ted was bad, this was worse.

  58. Maleficent may have box office power beyond this week if the “This is a feminist film I want my little girls to see” response has legs. Prince Charming is completely neutered and every other man in the film is cartoonishly evil or completely under her thumb.

    Unfortunately the movie is also fucking terrible. There is as much narration as there is dialogue, and Maleficent is silently shaping all events from a distance to the extent that it’s like watching someone play the Sims. I’d still watch it again before I went back to Burton’s Alice.

  59. I know this contest does not include international and I think Days of Future Past is a PERFECT example of why.

    It is already at 500 million worldwide in a week.

    That is bonkers.

    • My understanding (correct me if I’m wrong), was that Marvel/Disney doesn’t make any money from the toys or any licensing directly from the movie. Marvel could put out Days of Future Past toys directly from the comic book, but not if it’s directly from the movie. As I remember one of the Marvel movies own by another studio that Marvel did exactly this and this reason was point out at the time.

      So it would be up to FOX to license and release toys on X-men. Looking it up there seems to be few on X-men: First Class, like some props reproductions and a series of Minimates. So similarly there seems to be few for Days of Future Past. That doesn’t seem to be the thing that FOX knows how to do well.

  60. There are also rumors circulating that Marvel is minimizing the presence of the Fantastic Four in the comics to potentially hurt the buzz around the upcoming movie.

    • All because of one 75th anniversary cover with mainly Marvel Studio characters (and Spider-man?).

      Right now there’s two Fantastic Four comics, the regular comic and a spin-off called FF. Plus Marvel did the Fantastic Four Season One graphic novel a while back, which I understand was very successful.

      All of that doesn’t sound to me like Marvel is purposely trying to minimize a property that another studio has. Afterall, Marvel/Disney does get a healthy chunk of the box office that FOX generates from the movie. Also box office aside then there is all the merchandising.

      I’ll wait to see if there’s more to the rumor, but it seems kind of far fetch to me.

      • It is just a rumor but but even if true I don’t think they would take a hit from it because the Fantastic Four hasn’t been near the top of the publishing line since the original stuff. Everyone has fondness for the characters and the legacy but no matter who Marvel puts on that book it never pushes the dial.

        Also the Season One thing was first green lit in 2011 before Avengers showcased just how big this all could be for them, same with FF and Fantastic Four one of which actually doesn’t exist anymore after they recently changed the creative teams around.

        • Yeah, it may have been since John Byrne since FF was truly a hot title, although Waid’s run is well regarded.

          I’d imagine that the biggest people that would be hurt by the lack of FF when a movie comes out would be the comic store owners.

          • Hickman had a great run recently on both Fantastic Four and FF, mainly because Hickman is great, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t sell well during his run. Which is a shame.

          • I’ve been meaning to eventually pick up Matt Fraction’s & Mike Allred’s FF as I’m a fan of both creators.

            It will probably be the first new Marvel series or trade I picked up since… I think perhaps Warren Ellis’ amazing Nextwave: Agents of H.A.T.E.

            However, Matt Fraction’s Hawkeye has been on my list of titles to check out for some time now.

          • Zero and Prophet both run a tidy little dance around it for that spot. Also Copra but that is a bit different yet still monthly.

            I even preferred the couple bits of the new Iron Fist and Ghost rider books to it, but I have such a problem sticking on Marvel titles these days.

            I only care about self deprecating mean Fraction which is Casanova.

          • I’ll agree that Prophet is good shit, but I’ll still take Hawkeye any day and not think twice.

            Still haven’t checked out Zero. I really should rectify that.

          • Thinking about it actually most of my comic reading right now has switched to weekly stuff (WSJ, 2000AD) with very few monthly books being up to snuff.

            Oh and East of West because that is the Hickman book that works for me.

          • Yeah, I’ve also been meaning to check out Prophet for some time but haven’t gotten around to it. I actually hadn’t heard of Zero until now.

            Yeah, Matt Fraction on Casanova has been great, as has Sex Criminals.

            Image comics in general have been really on a roll lately. It reminds me of the peak of say Vertigo comics.

            Brian K. Vaughan and Fiona Staples have just been hitting it out of the park consistently with Saga. Jonathan Hickman with the mentioned East of West, as well as the Manhattan Projects and what I think is wrapped up Secret. The last one I think could make a great tight spy movie.

            Then there’s Ed Brubaker and Sean Phillips’ latest Fatale. Greg Rucka’s latest with Lazarus also quite good.

            Tim Seeley’s Revival is also consistently amazing, focusing on the US town who suddenly a small amount of dead come back alive. Not as zombies, but just as regular people, if every so slightly off. The town is quarantine and the story focuses a young woman who was killed shortly before this strange event happen and is now trying to solve her own murder mystery and find out who killed her.

            I probably missed quite a few, but yeah Image comics has such great titles happening now.

            Which is one of the reason that I don’t get around to the new FF, as there’s such a long list of really great comics being published these days.

  61. I hate to say it – but the Transformers 4 previews in the movie theaters have sucked me in. I swore I’d never pay another penny to see a Transformers movie, but I’m going to give it one more chance.

  62. Jupiter Ascending pushed to 2015. Matt Brown, Arjay, Rot, and Thomas Wishloff get screwed. Sorry guys (it would’ve bombed anyways 😉 )

  63. Speaking of John Green, although I have not read his novels, I am a big fan of his videos on Youtube. He does the Crash Course series among others. He basically covers history and literature in short, very informative segments. I think your kids will like them, Kurt. There is also is one dedicated to the sciences, but that is done by another personality.


    look at this, the film looks wank, is 2hours I wish the obvious female market out there was served up something better, apparently Malificent sold but no good, I think this will make top 10 unless front loaded, bods well for Tammy tippers but that film honestly has a worst trailer than AMWTDITW, maybe the summer is shaping up for a great anti vivosection smart political film like Dawn of Apes to sweep board, then again HTTYD2 might see with mum on Monday cheap here in Sydney, I think Edge of T will get crushed, could already tell from oversea numbers, whilst another big opening this week may stop x-men as well from cracking $200mil

  65. I think it’s possible 22 Jump Street would do to HTTYD 2 what Hangover 2 did to Kung Fu Panda 2!! Last few years Dreamworks Animation have been downright incompetent selling their movies.

    • I kind of agree with The Dissolve. Heck, it used to be that Summer movie season really started on Memorial Day weekend, which actually meant something as that’s when a lot of colleges ended the semester. There’s no real practical difference beforehand. Heck, timing an opening for spring break might mean more in practical terms than the first week in May. Summer movie season is more a state of mind than an actual season.

      I’d actually frame it more like this:

      January 1 to Valentine’s Day: The time you dump your failed movies, expand the Oscar contenders, and invest in counterprogramming.

      Valentine’s Day to mid-March: The time to roll out your mid-sized films. You don’t want to draw too much attention from your Oscar contenders and Christmas holdovers. And you want to take whatever post-Oscar bump there is

      mid-March to mid-August: Blockbuster season

      mid-August to mid-September: The new school year takes up too much attention. Dumping grounds.

      mid-September to October: Time to roll out the horror franchises, and early Oscar contenders. Also festival season.

      November to December: Second blockbuster season and positioning of Oscar contenders.

  66. So where is the fanfare for Dragons? This is the big one, and I haven’t seen squat or heard squat about it… it opens today right?

  67. All I need to know is when I can say Gamble’s sure thing is once again wrong. I’ll give it a week but I think Dragons is not the draw I was assured it would be.

  68. Where Has Everybody Gone?

    No comments? Seriously, did these numbers scare the living daylights out of the lot of you?

    • My picks this year have been too depressingly bad to comment on the box office numbers too much. This week was another big swing and a miss on my predictions for HTTYD 2 & 22 JS opening weekend predictions. And I see quite a few of you at least nailed the 22 Jump Street number at $60 million, congrats, wish I knew what that feels like 🙂

      P.S.-If Trannies 4 with it’s 157 MINUTE RUNNING TIME ends up the highest grosser for the summer, my fear of humanity will deepen with sadness and befuddlement.

  69. I guess I underestimated the sequel to a dumb comedy, which I decided to skip because I wasn’t the craziest about the first.

    I still think HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 will be the film that lasts.

  70. So the lowest predicted number for ‘How To Train Your Dragon 2’ opening weekend was 74 mil and it goes as high as 140 mil. Ya, we got that right!!

  71. I can only imagine that DRAGON will have some pretty long legs at the Box Office, although Transformers might stick a fork in it. I sure as heck hope not.

  72. Just for the record, my fake list is sitting at 200 points after all the films have opened, although it may drop to 195 if Belle manages to climb over $10 million, which looks doubtful. Proof of concept!

    Thank god for the possibility of bonus points otherwise, I’d be done. X-Men : DOFP is my possible savior.

    I can’t see How to Train Your Dragon 2 hitting #1 unless it has Frozen like holds. It may, I expect it will climb past the original’s gross, but even with the lack of competition that’s a very underwhelming opening weekend.

    • His contention that we all need to stop focusing on domestic is definitely true, although a lot more of what he’s saying seems like an attempt to read the situation optimistically (by force).

      Saying that ASM2 did, after all, do pretty well doesn’t actually equate with doing well enough to justify the enormous production and marketing costs of making one of these movies.

      On the other hand, I think the whole concept of audience fatigue is basically bullshit. Marketing fatigue might be a more likely culprit.

  73. 25m 2nd weekend for Dragon 2. No legs for this aesthetically repellent animated film (characters are too thin for that height, not round enough).

  74. Box Office Mojo has pointed out that “With $522 million worldwide, ‘Maleficent’ is now Angelina Jolie’s highest-grossing live-action movie ever”.

    I thought I was going to get Maleficent pretty dead on with my $190 after opening weekend but with such low drops, it looks like that movie has legs and I’m going to lose out (I currently have 22 points from it).

    That said, my $202 million for Godzilla looks quite close now, if it can squeeze just a few more million out. I think I originally had Maleficent and Gozilla both at $200 million. I gave Godzilla $2 million more to put it over Maleficent. However, going through my numbers before submitting them, I dropped Maleficent to $190. Likely a mistake on both sides.

    However, I’m currently 6th place so I can’t complain.

    • Unless something drastically weird happens with one of the comedies, MALEFICENT is looking like the sleeper hit of the summer. I’d say people will be trying to ape this movie for the next 5 years, except they’ve already been trying for the past 5.

  75. Meanwhile it’s been pointed out that if you went to the theatre this weekend in 1984 the choice of movies you could have seen included:
    – Ghostbusters
    – Gremlins
    – Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
    – The Karate Kid
    – Star Trek 3
    – Romancing the Stone
    – Police Academy (the original)

    Of course in 1984, I was just 7 and too young to see any of those movies in the theatre except The Karate Kid. I would end up seeing all those movies years later on tv or VHS.

      • Yeah, 1984 was a good year for movies, it’s just crazy to think all of those movies above were all out on the same weekend. “Night of the Comet” wasn’t released until November. Of course back then movies were in the theatres for many months at a time compared now where movies are rarely in the theatre after 2 months.

        Fast Forward a few more weeks to July and “The Last Starfighter” and “The Muppets Take Manhattan” were also out. However, Police Academy drops off the top 10. It could have been still out in theatres, but Box Office Mojo isn’t providing any info on it at this point.

        • Imagine a time when movies were so good and good movies were so plentiful that you could actually see an Indiana Jones movie and a terrific Indiana Jones knockoff on the same day, and maybe even at the same theatre.

  76. Current Trans4mers Domestic Gross: $128,685,000
    Current Trans4mers Foreign Gross: $284,000,000
    Current Trans4mers Worldwide Gross: $412,685,000

    Yep, domestic grosses are yesterday’s news.

  77. Dang, I was a only 1M shy of nailing APES opening weekend gross. More importantly, it is a pretty excellent bit of filmmaking, that.

        • Thanks, I didn’t want to smack talk ’till the weekend actuals were in. So take that bitches. Y’all got F’d in the A by my crazy guessing game skills.

          I think I’m looking pretty good to take this thing. There’s a few folks with more points than me but I see foresee some problems for their strategy on the horizon.

          I”m also looking pretty good to get 10 out o 10, no obvious losers so far.

          • Guardians of the Galaxy is the last film remaining in most people’s lists. But there are a few of us still waiting on some potential sleepers(?).

            Hercules – Matthew Price, Goon, Dave Nandes, Rot, Andrew Parker, and LKM

            TMNT – MrRTJL, Goon, Jamie, Phillip Poirot, JamieNZ, LKM, Matthew Fabb, and me

            Sex Tape – Courtney Small and Jamie

            Planes II – Rot

          • I’m feeling petty good about racking up Gross Bonus Points on X-Men, I have $240 million total there, to go along with nailing the opening. How does this opening plus total bonus precisely work? It’s in play for me.

            I feel good about GotG based on tracking. I’m out if I don’t nail that opening and total though.

            My fake, ineligible list is going to finish at 195 points due to Belle slightly overperforming my total amount.

        • I was just $1 million under with a $71 million gross. I think I had it initially at $72 million, but I had matching numbers for Amazing Spider-Man 2 & Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, both in total box office and opening weekend, so I set Apes lower since I had figured Amazing Spider-Man was going to do better.

  78. as a vegan disappointed in politics of dawn of apes, but hey its good enough that it could come 4th for summer as i predicted, confident i can get 5/6 right gross predictions and march to the top of the mamos, i hope my possible dark horse pick Lucy dosent disturb my possible 9/10 on the top 10.

      • seems they use anti vivisection message to maybe make the first film seem more meanigful than it really is given they had nothing to go with on the second film, i guess studio driven but serious for Cesears female companion to need antibiotics to heal then they may have been the ones experimented on the far more sympathetic Koba, also was the sutdio told to be anti gun, interesting placing in the whole of 2015, anyway no ilussion to exactly that type of ape they are, as opposed to monkeys, apes have far greater in common with homoerectus, diet inklings would suggest than either than are trying to be smartasses by staying in the medeterrian weather of san fran or that somehow all apes aint tropical beings, ive only see the original, i endevour to watch the 4 other films i havent see, maybe listen to the apes pri=emium at film junk and than make up my mine on the politics but they are really after thoughts, yab grabs.. btw im a high fruit organic mainly raw vegan and was curious wheather this film series would be a good way to express to smartassry and speciesm of vivosection and claiming humans and primates are omnivores, but hey apt title really, most humans are omni present and consuming everything really, as for arts for art sack, Dawn fells short in just being well made given that within the great cg and framing and have such cliche americanisms incedently carried out by two propminate aussie actors, wft??

    • What do you think is Avengers 3’s release date? Is it May 5(2017) or May 3(2019)? Will RDJ hang around the Marvel camp until 2019?

  79. 🙂 They’re saying Hercules is only going to make 25m this weekend… maybe now the studios will realize The Rock isn’t a draw (so sick of him getting credit for the success of established properties).

    • Be careful. I love The Rock. He’s got a great personality and goes for broke in everything he does. I hated the serious actioner he did a year or two ago, but I actually like his charisma in everything else from “Be Cool” to “Escape to Witch Mountain” to “The Rundown” to “Fast & Furious.” I kind of actually want to watch his tooth fairy movie – and I still haven’t seen the Scorpion movie either.

      • It surprises me how often we share the same opinion(love of the FF series, Stoker, Winter’s Tale, Family Guy, hatred of Frances Ha, etc.) yet your love of The Rock always baffled me. I don’t hate him, he’s fine for the most part… but c’mon he ain’t no box office draw.

        • I guess I don’t *love* him either. I just think he’s got great presence (more than most actors these days) and knows how to use it properly and when. Plus, the guy can really do it all. Maybe the drama doesn’t stick quite as well because of his sheer size, but humor, anger and action he kills it (almost) every time.

  80. I was feeling pretty smug because of the two people who currently have more points than me one of them doesn’t have Guardians on his list.

    But then I looked closer and noticed Jay’s really well positioned for 15-20 points for grosses on Apes and Transformers.

    I can still win this but I’m going to need a few things to go my way.

    • Matt Brown gets a solid 10 gross bonus for 22 Jump Street. Grover still has Maleficent (seems unstoppable) and Neighbors is creeping towards 150. So the game is still on.

  81. Picking Tammy over Neighbors is probably going to cost me in the end. I need Guardians to bomb to have any real shot at winning.

  82. Based on early reviews of Guardians, ‘m wishing I put it as my no. 1 now. A good time stands out a lot now, and if its what is being promised it could fill a much needed good-time void and walk away with the summer.

    • Guardians will do well, but I don’t know where this idea that it’s going to walk away with anything. It will open, maybe over $70 million, and the Turtles will be #1 the following week while GOTG has a nice but not exceptional multiplier.

      I SHOULD have gone with my low hanging fruit strategy and forced Brown and Price to make a decision. Otherwise, I need X-Men to come up with about $4 million more and to nail GOTG. Even then, it’s probably not good enough. I blame Seth MacFarlane.

      • I’m starting to wonder if we’re looking at an August where everything over-performs slightly just by dint of being slick, entertaining property that doesn’t spend all its emotional energy brooding about the inequities of life and the forthcoming doom of the human race.

        Presuming for a minute that TMNT isn’t a Dark Knight style tonal revamp, you’ve got that, Guardians, Sin City, and Expendables 3, all of which look like “hey guys, let’s have a good time at the movies again” – the poster for Expendables 3 is just a bunch of happy looking old dudes.

        • I just don’t see it. I don’t think the summer fare was anymore serious or grim than usual. Spiderman seemed pretty light and cartoony. I thought Edge of Tomorrow was really funny and entertaining. 22 Jump St, How to Train a Dragon etc. The movies seemed to be unusually well received by critics as well.

          I don’t think anyone’s waiting in rapt anticipation for the right movie. I think american audiences just don’t care.

          • Spider-Man ended with a death. How To Train Your Dragon ended with a death. Edge of Tomorrow ended with a complete rewrite of recent history, as did X-Men. Hooray?

          • No, they’re a literal description of what happens. In both films, some or all of the events of the film we’ve just watched are wiped out of “true” continuity by a time travel event, thereby saving the world.

          • Well that definitely happened in the movies. But why does changing history make them brooding or unfun? Is Back to the Future also too dark and grim?

            Anyways, bad weekend for me at the box office. Lucy threatens my perfect 10. and for some reason Neighbors *gained* from last week. ARRG! That’s not supposed to happen! I may as well just say goodbye to 4 points.

    • It’s official, female led vehicles are the Summers big winners.

      This isn’t a sudden trend, Hunger Games, Gravity, Frozen, Maleficent. You’d think that the comic booker movie guys would be eager to jump on the band wagon but the truth is they’ve been really reluctant to do so. The time to announce a Wonder Woman or Capt Marvel movie would’ve been this weekend at San Diego but nope, nothing. For some reason they just don’t want to go there.

      A stray observation: the other notorious boys club is video games. But the video game movies don’t suffer from this problem at all. If anything they’re predominently female fronted. But there’s something specific to the comic book culture that is resistant to it.

      I will say that personally I don’t get a Black Widow movie. I just don’t get the character, she sticks out like a sore thumb in Avengers. There’s nothing about the character that reads as “superhero”. Does she have powers? She kicks people and shoots guns (braclet guns for some reason). She’s more like a James Bond than a superhero. I think Marvel has two open slots in their slate of untitled release dates. IMHO they’d be crazy to waste one on Black Widow.

  83. Deadline has early numbers for Guardians of the Galaxy from Thursday night. They brought in $11.2 million which as Deadline points out is the biggest Thursday night screening of the year. The closest one has been Captain America 2 which got $10.2 million. Might Guardians pass Captain America 2’s $95 million? Or is this movie just going to be hugely front-loaded as the marketing as pushed all the hardcore fans of wanting to see it right away?

    Either way, it looks like Marvel has a hit on it’s hand especially with all the hugely positive word of mouth it is getting. Maybe it’s just me, but it’s been ages since I’ve seen so many people, be so incredibly positive about a movie that is on the verge of coming out.

    • BOOM. Finally, the fun blockbuster this summer has been sorely lacking – and it actually delivers, the audiences are having a GREAT time.

      With the rest of August a cakewalk, if this thing catches fire it’s gonna go pretty big. Gonna make Thor look like Barbie. James Gunn clobbered this – a single-move graduation into the bigtime.

      • Based on the reactions I was seeing on my way out of the theater, word of mouth is going to be very good for GOTG making a shit-ton of money over the next few weeks. I had a blast.

  84. Yeah, GotG is going to very big this weekend. I think this will be front-loaded this weekend, remember Captain America fell during the school year, but no doubt very large and poised for a good run. I don’t think it’s going to have extraordinary legs, and there’s a good chance TMNT will open next weekend, but it’s not facing a constant barrage.

    In other news, I concede that I’m out of the contest. Congrats to those still in it.

  85. Looking like as much as $95 million for the weekend for GOTG. I wasn’t even close, contest-wise… next Mamo we’re gonna have to have a serious look at how successfully Marvel engineered this “who – what?” comic book into a Captain America level hit.

    Unpleasantness around Ant-Man aside, Marvel took 2014 to the cleaners. Now they’ve got sequels to huge 2014 hits scheduled for 2016 and 2017, they can toss crazy-ass Dr. Strange nonsense wherever they want and they’ll still come out of those years with shiny balance sheets.

  86. man just when i though i was in with shot this year, fair dues though hope to see it once i get to Lima in two weeks, worth it if its good eh…

    • I don’t think anyone really saw that coming, not even Marvel. However, part of the issue is that everything else did so poorly this summer. Guardians of the Galaxy might make around $250 million, which would be mid-way on most summers, but this summer could give it the #1 position.

      • I still don’t get how it is a surprise if you look at how they marketed the movie and how a section of the people will go see it anyway. They almost had a trailer for a different quadrant of the audience every couple weeks.

        Even the “surprise” of the film is now being used as a push by fans after the fact of this movie that is so different from all the others.

  87. Also looking at the ranking with no seeding, none other than Matt Brown is in #1 place. However, 2nd and 3rd place are just one point behind him. I imagine a lot of people’s scores will shift as Guardians of the Galaxy moves up the top 10, causing everyone to lose or gain points depending on placement of their movies.

    A number of people have Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles next weekend and then one person has Sin City 2. Then it’s just a matter how all the final numbers shake out.

    • I don’t plan on going. I think TMNT is a little more niche than internet, movie geeks would like to think it is. And while the 80s one is loved by some, it’s a very very small percentage of the movie going populace.

      • It doesn’t help that it looks like shit. Granted, I didn’t forget that TMNT II, TMNT III, and much of the Ninja Turtle stuff to come out since the 1990 movie was almost all complete shit… but I’d take campy silliness over Transformers-with-Turtles any day.

        Also… Raphael’s arms in the posters… they’re like 60″ biceps. WTF?

        • Comparing it to Transformers is flawed, easy because Bay is producer and his name is mentioned over the actual director in the trailers but it doesn’t have the scope or scale on the same level that is large part of what makes Transformers a thing to go to in the theater.

          • Not at all flawed and I know he’s only a producer. I see the same Transformers-effect on the Man of Steel and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and hell, even The Avengers… the dumbing-down of the action while making the scenes have completely totally over the top complete destruction rather than interesting, unique and carefully planned out action scenes.

            I don’t need to see Ninja Turtles flipping fucking cars over or dodging NYC buildings that are falling over onto the populace. Seriously, there is absolutely nothing memorable or unique about these Transformer-like city annihilation action scenes nowadays.

            So yes, it’s exactly as I meant: Transformers-with-Turtles.

          • Except I disagree with you about Bay specifically, sure a bunch of people have come along and can’t do what he does and it looks like an uninteresting mess but Michael Bay himself doesn’t do that.

      • The cartoon and earlier movies likely hit it’s peak in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. However, there was a new version of the cartoon in 2003 that lasted 7 seasons and then a reboot in 2012 that has just been renewed for it’s 3rd season. So it’s a series that has managed to reach multiple generations of kids. Very similar to Transformers which Hasbro keep hitting the reboot button and getting a new set of kids interested, in a new version of the cartoon & toys.

        So I figured similar to Transformers, a live action Michael Bay-like version of the series would perhaps take off. I really don’t have any interest myself in the movie, just as I don’t care about the Michael Bay directed Transformers movies, but I had figured others would like it.

  88. Guardians also makes sense doing well from an adaption perspective. It has the freedom to the be the loosest and most distinct simply because it is the first of these properties to come out that don’t have a legitimately amazing run of issues that are widely regarded as excellent or a varied number of takes that are all excellent that most of the other characters to show up on screen have.

    • DC knew they would’ve beaten Cap 3, but they’re not in a position where they can sacrifice potential grosses on a squabble. Basically, they need to make all the money they can with BvS.

      • Also Captain America 3 is still in early stages of production, while Batman vs Superman is in the middle of filming. Warner Brothers can move it forward while I don’t think Marvel would be in a position to move it forward.

        Also I think Marvel Studios getting a huge hit with Captain America 2 in March and then again with Guardians of the Galaxy in August, shows that a good movie can open any time. Plus fewer competitors launching anytime nearby is likely more helpful than the date.

        In other superhero news, it’s interesting to hear from Sony that they will launch a female superhero movie from the Spider-man world (Spider-Woman? Spider-Girl? Black Cat? Silver Sable?). Everyone was waiting to see if Marvel Studios or Warner Brothers would be first and Sony is trying to beat them to the punch.

        Meanwhile, in the interviews with Nicole Perlman who co-wrote the Guardians of the Galaxy has brought up that she worked on a Black Widow treatment back in 2010/2011. Unfortunately she’s not working on it now, but it’s interesting to hear about how Marvel Studios has various people working on scripts on a regular basis. (Also Nicole Perlman is cool for being the first person to go through the Sleepy Hollow VR experience that I had worked on for this year’s San Diego Comic Con.)

        • FWIW, BvS moving may very well mark the official “death of the summer season” that the Dissolve talked about not long ago. With 6 weeks between it and Cap 3, tons of screens, and little competition, it should make a boatload with little risk. That may be the smart move in the long run.

          Incidentally, I’m not sure that Cap 3 is going to be all that. They already covered the 2 big Captain America stories, Cap vs the Nazis/Red Skull, and Cap vs the US Government (basically). What’s left that really resonates with people? Replacements? They kind of ran out of steam with Thor already too.

      • Pretty much. Marvel is in a position where they could actually have taken a #2 opening next to Batman Superman and not have it hit their bottom line, just for the sheer value of taking away some of WB’s business. WB, on the other hand, can’t afford to have even a marginal failure on this one, so they have to go open this thing in March like a lame-ass Hunger Games retread. I hope they do John Carter numbers.

  89. Speaking of Ninja Turtles, without seeing the new one, I appreciate NPR’s description of how the turtles have changed in this one: “The Turtles have turned from pizza-obsessed surfer-types who speak of ‘dudes and dudettes’ to steroid-pumped bros: from stoners to the kind of turtles you might expect to find at a Skrillex concert.”

    • The NRP review continues: “Ultimately, there’s a generic blandness to this incarnation of the Ninja Turtles, a derivative quality that the film’s self-aware pop culture references … only underline. … There’s no lack of craft here, but there’s certainly an absence of character.”

          • WTF!?! Are you having us on? I’ve only seen Battle LA and it was tired and dull. I think Liebsman is a pretty uninspired director.

            I am geniunely surprised by the success of Ninja Turtles. Looks like my perfect ten is in the trash can. Just goes to show you, you never know what’s around the corner in the summer box office guessing game!

          • That was Liebsman experimenting with genre verite, a little too similar to Peter Berg for me. Watch Wrath and you’ll see what he’s capable of.

          • Well, I won’t promise to run out and see it but I’ll keep my eyes opened for it if it pops up on netflix or something. I’m pretty skeptical but appreciate you going out on a limb with your recommendations.

  90. It’s looking like out of the 31 entrants, only 5 of us predicted the top 10(albeit out of order).

    Matthew Fabb
    Philip Poirot
    Tum Tum Tyranus

  91. So what’s MAMO’s thoughts on continuing the contest going forward? It’s a lot of fun but after this cataclysmic summer it doesnt seem like summer movie season is a thing anymore. It’s depressing but also interesting to watch.

      • yes, that is a list of past summer movie seasons, thank you.

        But my comment wasn’t just regarding the box office drop this summer. The upcoming release schedule also reflects this trend (Star Wars / Batman <3 Superman etc).

        One of the explainations for the boxoffice drop was that hollwood had a very light release schedule this july, which reinforces the point that Summer isn't necessarily where studios want to put their huge budget blockbusters.
        In the past Marvel probably would've put either Cap 2 or GotG in July but apparently that's not their thinking anymore.

    • It depends on if you are talking about changing the game (like the long discussed inclusion of global box office) or if you feel bad box office results = a bad game. I see the contest as less about being the summer and good films as it is just a contest to throw your hat in. My enjoyment comes from just following the box office during the summer.

      • Exactly. With lots of surprises, both upsets and sleepers, this has been my favorite summer of the game. Malificent is currently #2??? What the heck?

        • Yeah, I agree it’s been a fun game this Summer, lots of surprises. But, I’m just speaking for myself here, the notion of the “Summer movie season” just seems antiquated now. Going forward the Summer Movie season wont include Star Wars, Fast & Furious or Batman vs Superman. Marvel’s been moving from the Summer too.

          It’s just not quite the same.

          • Summer movies didn’t include the LOTR franchise, Harry Potter (most of), James Bond movies, James Cameron movies for sometime now. What’s so different now?

          • I don’t know, maybe it’s just me. Do you feel like Summer is still the big movie season? It seems to me like at this point the contest may as well be any random three months.

            Which would still be fun, it’s just not the same is all.

          • While it’s true that a lot more blockbusters are starting to open in March or April, the summer movie season will probably still be a thing. 2014 was a bit of a dud, but next year is going to be jam packed.

            Here are just a few examples:
            Avengers: Age of Ultron
            Mad Max: Fury Road
            Pitch Perfect 2
            Jurassic World
            The Fantastic Four
            Terminator: Genesis

          • I was actually just looking at the lineup for next Summer ’15, it was originally supposed to be huge but everything’s moved; Star Wars Batman & Superman, F&F are all spring or winter.

            I’m sure it’ll be bigger than this summer but it still looks pretty underwhelming. It’s Avengers and a bunch of also rans. I don’t think anyone cares at all about F4 or Terminator. I’m pretty skeptical about Ant-man as well although as long as it has the Marvel logo infront of it I wouldn’t bet against it. Pixar’s movie sounds pretty interesting.

            I think Spielberg’s blockbuster apocalypse (blockpocalyspse) is coming true.

          • There have always been two big movie seasons during the year, the Holidays (Nov-Jan) and Summer (May – July). The biggest movie days of the year are Christmas Day, the day after Christmas and the day after Thanksgiving.

            2015 has been talked about because the entire years is absurd bookings, you barely go two weeks without a potential blockbuster getting released. The biggest films still fall in those two prime slots, but it looks like studios are finally figuring out they can do better if they stop canibalizing each other’s films so damn much.

          • I kind of wonder if there’s going to be a bunch of gnashing of teeth if Avengers 2 only makes $500 million domestic.

    • Well with the latest box office results (TMNT still #1, Guardians still #2 and Expendables 3 bombing only making $16 million and coming in at #3) has you, Matt Brown back at #1.

      This summer has been so unpredictable, yet as Tum Tum Tyranus pointed out 5 people playing the contest successfully picked the top 10. I don’t think that many people have gotten the top 10 in quite some time (if ever?). That said, just because the top 10 movies were right, doesn’t mean the box office for each was anywhere close.

      At the end of July, the summer box office was down from 2013 at the same time by over 16% according to Box Office Mojo. The latest season-to-date now in August is 14%, all because August has been so absolutely huge with Guardians and TNMT. Next week we get to see if Sin City can still grab an audience.

      That said, despite the number of bombs the overall box office for summer of 2013 was a HUGE increase, up 12%. Once again according to Box Office Mojo, it hasn’t been since 2002 that there had been that big of a boost, when it jumped up 15%. Compare 2014 box office to 2012 and there isn’t that much of a decrease.

    • You’re telling me, what the hell is happening. I was just looking at my rankings and trying to predict my final tally. What I noticed is that Guardians will likely leapfrog X-Men in the next week meaning that I pretty much hit the Ranking and Total Box Office dead on (and the nice ten bonus points for both). But this can all change when the rest of the table settles down, with Apes, Turtles and Guardians still jostling.

      Either way, I refuse to believe that bullshit alchemy I used to predict the table legitimises my technique, and rather believe in dumb luck.

      • And if not for the long weekend you would’ve scored on the OW as well. Getting all three would’ve been an additional 10 point bonus.

        Man, you must hate the vetrans right now.

      • I won this contest 2 years in a row and yeah it was more pure luck than anything. We are all trying to guess the actions of a potential audience of 347 million (that’s the US + Canada population based on 2012 stats) so no one will ever get the reaction of people dead on.

    • As much as I want you to win, there’s a good chance your 10 points from the DotPotA total gross will drop down to 5 points by summer’s end and you’ll end up in 2nd place behind Philip Poirot by a measly point or two. TMNT is looking to seal the deal for Poirot, which I can totally respect.

    • I want to go on record as not buying into this notion that Summer movies have become too grim. And that audiences are rebelling from depressing or overly serious blockbusters

      Case in point: Matt, you pointed to spider-man as an example of a depressing movie because of Gwen Stacy. And then turned around and applauded GotG for being fun and carefree. But that movie opened with a character being orphaned after his mom died of cancer.

      I agree that GotG is a better movie than Spiderman 2 but the difference between these movies isn’t “unearned self-importance”. Both of the films are trying to balance seriousness and laughs, with about the same ratio of one to the other.

      • Ah, but you hit the nail on the head anyway: Guardians *opened* with a character being orphaned. Spider-Man 2 *ended* with the love interest being killed. I think a really key factor here is: what state of mind do these movies send their audiences back out into the world in? I think DotPOTA is terrific filmmaking, but that ending is grim, grim, grim. In fact the only really “fuck yeah!” ending I can think of for the whole summer is Guardians. Even the happy endings of X-Men and Live Die Repeat were fairly muted under the circumstances.

        • I agree that Apes is a grim film with a downer ending. X-Men and LDR (i guess ill just go by that title) on the other hand don’t fit the bill at all.

          Let me put it this way: by your arguments Superman (1979) would be considered a downbeat depressing movie.

          Also, Spiderman does end on a more upbeat note than just Gwen Stacy dying.

          • Lois Lane dies and Superman has to time travel and undo it. Two plot points that you cited as depressing or grim in films this summer.

            I just don’t understand why you’re saying the time travel aspects of “X-Men” or “the Tom Cruise vehicle whose name is in dispute” make those films grimdark. It just seems like you’re hammering them into your thesis.

          • Ah. I see we’re talking about two different threads of the argument.

            There are movies that end on a dark and/or unsettling note – I would list Spider-Man and Apes in this category; and to an extent How To Train Your Dragon, which ends quite positively but seems to come at a large emotional cost. (Spider-Man, also, ends positively – but at even more recent cost, and I don’t think it buys its audience a happy sensation just because Spidey decides to man up and fight the Rhino instead of letting an 8-year-old kid do it.)

            Beyond this, there are movies whose content was either directly or subtextually riven with a sense of futility or hopelessness. I would list X-Men, All You Need Is Kill, Godzilla and Maleficent here, even though at the end of each of these movies the good guys have, for now at least, won.

            X-Men and Edge of Tomorrow both feature time travel rewrites of history. This doesn’t change the fact that they have happy endings; the point I was trying to make was that if you look at that storyline a little more deeply, it falls within an overall category of apprehension about doom that seems to inflect a lot of these movies.

            Superman and Back to the Future both feature time travel rewrites of history, but neither of them also feature the entire human race being wiped out by aliens, robots, or alien robots. As such, I don’t find them as doom-laden as Live Die Repeat or X-Men: Days of Future Past.

          • I don’t think it was Guardians of the Galaxy ending on a happy note that made audiences love it. I think it’s the fact that the movie from beginning to end had a great sense of humor to it, that made it such a fun movie. Especially in a summer without any big breakout comedy movie.

            Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, managed to increase it’s box office from Rise of the Planet of the Apes. I think it’s a success as there is a limited audience of people who are interested movies about talking apes. Even if the movie ended with the apes and humans forging peace and deciding to rebuild society together, I don’t think that would have helped it’s audience at all.

            Could have Amazing Spider-Man 2 done better if they kept Gwen alive and ended it with them in a successful relationship and a happy ending? I don’t think so as that didn’t seem to be a complaint. Instead I heard complaints about too many villains and a lack of focus in the story. Many people weren’t too crazy about the first Amazing Spider-man and with bad word of mouth, it just didn’t take off.

            X-men: Days of Future Past had a uplifting ending and despite being dark, I don’t think got people down on it. It was something that most who saw it seem to recommend it. The biggest thing against Days of Future Past seemed to be simply previous bad X-men movies. I heard people recommending this movie saying something like “Forget about how bad X-men 3 was, this is the best X-men movie since X-Men 2!!”. In the Days of Future Past made $2 million dollars less the most successful X-men movie, X-men 3 (ignoring inflation).

            Summer of 2014 had 7 movies over $200 million, summer of 2013 had 6 movies (or 7 if you count World War Z getting very close at $198.7), summer of 2012 had 6 movies over $200 million, summer of 2011 had only 4 movies over $200 million, 2010 had 6 movies over $200 million.

            So basically the summer of 2014 had it’s share of hits, it was just missing it’s big mega hits. Once again going back to previous years, it’s generally only 2 big movies that pass $300 and go further. Which ones that manage to pull this off is incredibly hard to work out, I think they are almost always franchise movies or at least a well known concept to vault the movies into another level. At this point Guardians of the Galaxy might squeeze past $300 million, but it has the advantage of being part of the Marvel Studios, which like Pixar movies have built trust with the audiences.

            There were a number of contenders this year like Transformers, or Amazing Spider-Man 2 and How To Train Your Dragon. Each have very individual reasons why they failed that I don’t think had anything with them being too grim. Give audiences a great movie like The Dark Knight Rises and they will eat up grim and ask for more.

          • Yeah I’m not sure I buy into the whole “grim” thing either. At least in the case of X-Men, I think it’s simply that people (in general) are over that particular franchise. It’s just not a popular name anymore – in fact, it might even be considered a little “nerdy” or uncool. Whereas Guardians is a little “dirtier” and more fun. they marketed it as the kind of young adult schlock that people (mostly geeky teens – which as we all know from 21 Jump Street are now the cool kids) totally eat up.

        • Within the context of this discussion a thought did cross my mind: Of the films you are talking about, Amazing Spider-Man 2, DotPotA and How to Train Your Dragon 2 are the second instalments of their respective franchises. Given that stories that aim to be a triptych tend to have a downbeat second instalment, this year may just be one of those years where we feel a little down because we have a few second instalment films, and the stories are either aiming to be dour (before the redemption in part 3) or the stories lack finality because they are the middle child of the story.

          In the opposite direction is 2012 where you have The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises, which are the final films of their respective arcs, and both feature the hero saving the day and character redemptions.

  92. Wait a minute. I just realized that everyone that beat Rick Vance, technically beat Box Office Mojo. That means six people did better than the people who do this for a living. And that’s with everyone missing on How To Train Your Dragon.

    This was a funky summer.

  93. It is quite surprising that Jay Steneker still hasn’t figured out that his DAWN/APES entry on the spreadsheet reads 2185 instead of 218 and he is not registering gross points for that entry. This entry may very well decide who will win the contest! 🙂

  94. Holy shit, Matt Brown is gonna win this thing!!! Poirot’s 5 points from TMNT’s total gross is gonna drop down to 1. Congrats, buddy. Fuck yeah!

    And it’s looking like I’m gonna get 10 points for both TMNT OW and total gross (damn, if I had placed it correctly in the top 10 I would’ve won).

    • If Dawn of the Planet of the Apes pulls in another $1.3 million as it drops off, then Matt Brown could lose 5 points. So I would say it’s still up in the air on who the winner will be, but it could very well be Matt Brown.

      • Also I notice the error on Jay Steneker’s entry hasn’t been corrected, which will affect things. Not sure if GE Hale is still monitoring this thread but hopefully he is and can update Jay’s DOTPOTA entry.

        • Look at the trajectory of Dawn; there’s no way it gets past 206.9m by September 14th, the endgame. Jay Steneker has Dawn ending at 218.5, which will only get him 1 more point for a total of 101 against Brown’s 104.

          • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is now at $206.2 million. If it’s pulls another $800k by the end of next weekend, then Matt Brown drops 5 points and into 5th place. Last week, it pulled in $1.2 million and the week before that it pulled in $1.5 million. So it’s possible that it will pull in $800K by next end of Sunday.

          • 206.2m including this weekend’s gross of 515,000. Look at the weekday dailies and let’s say next weekend it makes 515,000 again(which it won’t, it’ll decrease, naturally), it still won’t add up to more than 206.9m.

            206,221,000 + 70,000(Mon) + 70,000(Tues) + 50,000(Wed) + 50,000(Thurs) + 515,000(final weekend) = 206,976,000

            And that’s me being generous with both dailies and final weekend.

          • Darwin, yeah it’s always been that way. That said, generally very little happens in August and occasionally just one of the August movies might make the bottom of the top 10. So typically by the end of TIFF, there’s no more movement from any of the movies in the top 10. This year is so different with literally the biggest movie of the year opening up in August.

            As Tum Tum Tyranus now points out, that should be 6 weeks after Sin City 2 wraps up going by the official rules. So there might be still a little bit more time left.

  95. Stop the presses, I just realized something.

    “Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over.”

    This can be misinterpreted so I did a little digging on past contests and found this from Matt Price

    “Officially we close the contest 6 weeks after the release of the last eligible film to be picked”

    TMNT is the last film picked, therefore technically the final day for films to gross $ is Friday September the 19th. So the game is in fact still on. Holy Shit!!!

    Can we get Price or Brown to confirm end game.

  96. I just realized something else and it’s good news for Philip Poirot. Regardless of whether or not the end date is 6 weeks after TMNT or 6 weeks after Sin City(the joke pick), because of his TMNT placement he is looking to gain an additional point and will either tie for 1st with Matt Brown or be 1st all on his own. The only thing that can upset this outcome, and this is a long shot even with the Sin City extention, is if Dawn passes 208.5m, which will grant Jay Steneker an additional 5 points and give him the win with 105 poitns.

    • Oh wait, scratch that. Poirot will indeed gain an additional point for his TMNT placement but he will also lose 1 point when TMNT passes 180m.

        • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes lost 13% of it’s theatres this weekend, so it’s really going to come down to the wire to see if it can make around 500K this weekend.

          That said, since Matt Brown is one of the hosts of the show, he cannot win the DVD/blu-ray prize. He’s just going for bragging rights at this point.

          • Does it have to make 500k this week? Isn’t it 6 weeks after Sin City II, which is in Oct.

            It’s interesting how the joke picks are having this impact on the end results.

          • My bad, it’s next week, but even that is still up in the air. It’s currently at $206.825 million. It will lose even more theatres and so it might not make another $175K by the end of this next weekend.

            Either way, looks like Philip Poirot is the winner of the contest.

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