Mamo #298: Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

Just a couple days left to enter the Mamo Summer Box Office Contest! We roll out the wildest, weirdest summer we’ve ever encountered and break down week by week what we think will make what, and how. Now it’s your turn: listen to the episode, and enter your picks for the top ten grossing films to be released between May 1 and August 31. May the craziest bastard win.

To download this episode, use this URL: http://rowthree.com/audio/mamo/mamo298.mp3

THE CONTEST ENTRY PERIOD IS CLOSED. All entries dated May 1 or before have been entered into the Grosses Tabulator, which you can view here: http://bit.ly/SBO2013 (thanks to GE Hale!)

Rules:

THE SUMMER STARTS ON MAY 1 AND ENDS ON AUGUST 31, in terms of movies you can pick. Please work by domestic release dates only and with domestic grosses only. Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over. ALL ENTRIES MUST BE RECEIVED BY MAY 1 2013.

Players will submit the following:

Top ten films, in order of total grosses. Also total gross $ amount and opening weekend gross $ amount. So as an example, submissions should look like this:

1. Dark Knight Rises, $402 million, $175 million
2. Avengers, $375 million, $150 million

(ha ha this example is hilarious now)

Points awarded for:

A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.
B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.
C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.
D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.
E. 10 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $1 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

F. 5 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $5 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

G. 1 Bonus Point for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $10 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross AND within $1 million of the opening weekend gross.

F. For the purposes of calculating weekends – Films opening on a Wednesday are counted until the first Sunday they are released. Films opening on Memorial Day weekend are counted until the following Monday. Films opening the week of July 4 are counted from whenever they open in that week until the first Sunday of their release. Example – Spiderman opens on Tuesday, July 3. Your guess for weekend gross would actually be its 6 day total, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
David Brook
Guest

Welcome back Jandy! I hope motherhood is treating you well. You had time to put this review together, so it must be going smoothly to some extent 🙂

I’ve been a hearing a lot of good things about this, I can’t wait to see it, especially since I’ve been watching a lot more silent films than usual over the last year or two. I liked the Artist quite a lot, but as you describe, this seems to be better aimed at those that have a greater knowledge of the films of the silent era.

Matthew Price
Guest

Let the games begin!

Here are my picks:

1. Iron Man 3 – $375, $140
2. Pacific Rim – $325, $95
3. Monsters University – $280, $95
4. Lone Ranger – $260, $110
5. Star Trek Into Darkness – $245, $90
6. Fast & Furious 6 – $240, $85
7. Man of Steel – $230, $65
8. Despicable Me 2 – $220, $95
9. The Hangover Part III – $210, $90
10. White House Down – $185, $65

CRY HAVOC AND LOOSE THE DOGS OF WAR

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

Looking at these titles and the fact that I’m really only excited about The Lone Ranger and Man of Steel make the summer indeed strange. If you had told me, even 5 years ago, that I’d be looking far more forward to a Gore Verbinski / Disney Lone Ranger update and Zack Snyder re-re-reboot of Superman more than an original Guillermo del Toro kaiju vs. robots joint, well, I’d have surely called you crazy (and Shirley).

It is a wacky – is there a stronger word than this? I need one – summer season this year. It will take someone of Rain Man savant powers, Herzog deadpan-poetic ambition and Renfield flat-out-craziness to figure it all out.

Andrew James
Admin

Loony? Nutty? Batty? Bonkers? Moonstruck?

Matt Gamble
Guest

Halfyard.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Flattered that I’m at the ‘extreme end’ of crazy in your mind, Matt.

matthew price
Guest

Pot? This is Kettle. You’re black.

Angie
Guest

I totally get the The Lone Ranger since you enjoyed Rango and some of Gore Verbinski filmography. But your excitement for Man of Steel is a head scratcher.

Andrew James
Admin

Judging from trailers alone, Man of Steel look WAAAAY more interesting than Lone Ranger.

Lone Ranger looks like Pirates of the Caribbean on Nembutal.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Anyone who doesn’t take Star Trek as #1 deserves to lose.

That one is a freebie, the rest I’ll charge for.

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

Agreed. Star Trek 2 (Cumberbatch-a-boogaloo) is certainly coming out of the gate as a bigger budgeted sequel where the first one got extreme good will (and probably a lot of post-theatrical discovery from the Trekkie averse. It’s an action film first, overall…) I’d say Gamble is right in that it should be higher…#1 certainly isn’t out of reach, even if it isn’t quite a forgone conclusion…Don’t doubt the Avengers factor on the first post-avengers marvel product.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Yo, I heard you can unlock Gamble in the vortex arena by holding start+down after the head pops up and shouts “boasty”. 😉

Matt Gamble
Guest

I approve this message.

matthew price
Guest

Matt Gamble – hectoring from the cheap seats since nineteen hundred and ninety nine. Whatever, Statler.

Matt Gamble
Guest

I also approve of this message.

I’m still right though.

Matthew Price
Guest

Boxofficemojo took Star Trrek 5th, gamble. But what would they know.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Not what Rentrak does.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Star Trek is crushing everyone in tracking.

arjay
Guest

1. IRON MAN 3 (410,155)
2. PACIFIC RIM (305, 94)
3. MONSTERS U (255,92)
4. MAN OF STEEL (250, 105)
5. STAR TREK ID (231,99)
6. DESPICABLE ME (229, 100)
7. FAST/FURIOUS 6 (212, 88)
8. HANGOVER 3 (202, 95)
9. WHITE HOUSE DOWN (189, 67)
10. THIS IS THE END (172, 71)

Sweet As,

Arjay (from New Zealand)

GE Hale
Guest

For those starting there picks, here is a link to the list of summer releases according Box Office Mojo that I just added to the spreadsheet:

http://bit.ly/XaGIYe

I will have the rest of the auto-updating spreadsheet ready for May 1st.

matthew price
Guest

Because, as always, you rock, sir.

Andrew James
Admin

^^^^^^^^

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Since I don’t watch trailers anymore, I figured eff it and am entering this rumble early (really wanted to be entrant number 1, HBK style. Dang you, Price)

1. Iron Man III – 345, 166
2. Fast & Furious VI – 285, 130
3. Monsters University – 261, 76
4. Man of Steel – 236, 75
5. The Hangover 3 – 235, 86
6. The Wolverine – 234, 118
7. Despicable Me 2 – 218, 77
8. World War Z – 166, 61
9. After Earth – 160, 50
10. White House Down 159, 51

For funsies:
Star Trek II 152, 67 (yup, that’s right)
The Lone Ranger 145, 48

Rick Vance
Guest

Have you guys considered moving it back a month as the studios have also tried to extend summer into April?

Pain & Gain is that weekend before and that is the movie of the summer that I am most curious about. Second would be Pacific Rim but that is all because Guy Davis is working on it.

rot
Guest

a hot tip from the guy who came almost dead last in 2012: World War Z is going to make beaucoup bucks.

Rick Vance
Guest

Zombies are still pretty zeitgeisty right now.

Matt Gamble
Guest

The one sheet for it is pretty damn sweet.

http://www.rowthree.com/2013/03/29/friday-one-sheet-world-war-z/

Sean Kelly
Guest

It’s going to be a tough list to put together this year.

matthew price
Guest

Thanks! Looking forward to your picks and insights through the summer.

Sean Kelly
Guest

So, I put all the major releases into a spreadsheet and entered my best educated guesses of the total gross for each film. When I sorted the list it looked like this:
1) Iron Man 3 ($400, $150)
2) The Lone Ranger ($300, $140)
3) Star Trek into Darkness ($300, $100)
4) The Hangover Part III ($260, $90)
5) Despicable Me 2 ($250, $60)
6) Fast & Furious 6 ($225, $95)
7) Monsters University ($225, $66)
8) Man of Steel ($200, $60)
9) White House Down ($180, $65)
10) Planes ($175, $50)

**Fingers Crossed**

Angie
Guest

There’s no doubt in my mind that Star Trek into the Darkness will end up being the number 1 movie of the summer. It’s really easy to see just look at the track record, after the first Star Trek most of the cast went on to be huge stars and JJ had that massive hit with Super 8………….Oh Wait!

rot
Guest

The always reliable CinemaClock says The Heat is coming out in Toronto this Friday.

rot
Guest

The cooler has entered the game:

1. Star Trek 2 ($375, $120)
2. Iron Man 3 ($304, $140)
3. Pacific Rim ($290, $100)
4. Fast 6 ($280, $90)
5. World War Z ($277, $99)
6. Monsters University ($275, $70)
7. Despicable Me 2 ($240, $65)
8. The Hangover 3 ($237, $80)
9. Man of Steel ($200, $80)
10. The Great Gatsby ($189, $78)

The geek arcane justifications for why World War Z and Pacific Rim will bomb don’t make sense to me. Zombies and Robots, they will flock.

Nathan
Guest

For the fortune and glory…

1. Iron Man 3 – $342/$160
2. Star Trek ID – $287/$88
3. Despicable Me – $278/$102
4. Monsters University – $262/$71
5. Man of Steel – $232/$68
6. Fast & Furious 6 – $202/$75
7. The Lone Ranger – $188/$88
8. Hangover 3 – $184/$58
9. The Heat – $148/$36
10. Wolverine – $146/$45

Random thoughts while doing half-ass research: That piece of crap Grown Ups made 162 million, WOW.
-Really have no clue about Lone Ranger, it’s the classic big star (Depp) vs. underachieving genre (Western) so something has to give.
-After Earth will also be interesting since it’s starpower (the Smith family) vs. sci-fi movie not based on a well known property.
-Pacific Rim is another wild card, if the marketing is effective it could do very well but the great Del Toro has never had a film cross the $100 million mark.

Good luck everyone – Nathan (from SE Minnesota)

Nathan
Guest

Nathan’s official picks- Ahh crud, forgot to add in Memorial Day for that week’s releases (F&F 6 and Hangover 3). That’s the only change made for my predictions.

1. Iron Man 3 – $342/$160
2. Star Trek ID – $287/$88
3. Despicable Me – $278/$102
4. Monsters University – $262/$71
5. Man of Steel – $232/$68
6. Fast & Furious 6 – $202/$93
7. The Lone Ranger – $188/$88
8. Hangover 3 – $184/$76
9. The Heat – $148/$36
10. Wolverine – $146/$45

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

To answer Matt Price’s question, the Rowthree server exists in CENTRAL TIME ZONE, which is one hour behind Eastern Standard Time.

Dan Heaton
Guest

I have absolutely no expertise, but here goes!

1. Iron Man 3 – (370, 160)
2. Star Trek into Darkness (325, 140)
3. Despicable Me 2 (280, 130)
4. The Hangover Part III (265, 120)
5. Man of Steel (250, 130)
6. Monsters University (225, 120)
7. Lone Ranger (215, 110)
8. Pacific Rim (205, 90)
9. Fast & Furious 6 (200, 85)
10. The Heat (180, 80)

matthew price
Guest

Welcome to the show, rook.

Goon
Guest

1. Iron Man 3 (355, 120)
2. Star Trek: Into Darkness (300, 100)
3. Monsters University (260, 60)
4. Fast and the Furious 6 (255, 80)
5. Hangover III (240, 75)
6. Man of Steel (220, 65)
7. Pacific Rim (215, 50)
8. Lone Ranger (210, 65)
9. The Wolverine (200, 70)
10. This Is The End(180, 50)

Angie
Guest

Had no idea Hans Zimmer was doing the score for Man of Steel. Makes me excited, when every he works with Nolan he brings his A game.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Wow… already at 51 comments and I hadn’t even had a chance to listen to the podcast. I will likely be sticking to my habit of waiting until minute before finally putting together my list. Letting the possibilities simmer before pulling it together (not that it has helped me in the last few years).

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Matthew Price asks about Superman becoming a god who is worshipped and why hasn’t anyone made that storyline yet. This storyline has some what been written by the famous Alan Moore in Marvelman. Unfortunately, the character fell under a huge mess of copyright & legal problems, that people are still trying to figure out who owns the character. Alan Moore wrote this story at the same time as V For Vendetta and it is really this comic that leads Moore to write Watchmen. Neil Gaiman follows up Moore’s storyline and gets half way through his story before the company publishing Miracleman (they changed the name to avoid legal troubles with Marvel Comics) goes under.

Neil Gaiman has been working with Marvel Comics to bring it back into print, but they have been working at this since 2001 and the best they have managed to do so far is reprint the old Marvelman comics from the 1960’s. As Alan Moore though he was writing stories about an old British superhero who was in public domain. Yet later it was discovered that that might not have been the case. Meanwhile Marvelman himself is a superhero who was a copy of Captain Marvel, which was a copy of Superman. It’s a big enough mess that someone is currently writing a book about it called “Poisoned Chalice”.

Hopefully, it will see the light of day and Neil Gaiman can finally finish the story he started back in the early 1990’s (one issue was written and drawn but never published & Gaiman apparently has extensive notes on how it was going to end).

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, one of the rumors around Gaiman bringing Angela to Marvel is that it might entice Marvel to allow him to finish Miracleman. Or at least clear one of the many hurdles that would allow that.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Perhaps it might lead up to it, but they really don’t have anything to do with it. As during the big lawsuit between Todd McFarlane & Neil Gaiman, one thing was made clear and that was McFarlane had no claim to Marvelman. That at most he might have had an trademark on the updated Marvelman logo. However, McFarlane has since given up on even the trademark which Marvel now owns.

Mattmovies
Guest

I’m familiar with Miracleman/Marvelman. I own everything, and think it’s awesome. It’s the opposite of what I was describing, though. In Miracleman the supers impose themselves on the world when they get bored and realize that nothing can stop them. It’s more like the evil side of the Dr. Manhattan idea. What I want to see is the reverse – Supes is his selfless self, but the people just impose their crazy religiosity on him. They cultify him, deify him, despite his reluctance and innate humility. I’m not saying that makes it a good idea, but it isn’t one that’s already been written.

Voncaster
Guest

This idea is explored to a small extent in the Dark Knight Returns. Superman is essentially, the pawn of the US government. He is not an agent of religion, but he is painted as the powerful being who blindly follows orders.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Hmmm… just googling “Superman cult” to see if anyone had done such a story I found this:
http://supermanrebirth.wikia.com/wiki/Cult_of_Conner
Still not quite what you are looking for, as it’s a cult around Superboy who was killed by Superman-Prime.

I get what you are saying now and could result in an interesting story about religion. Not sure if DC would want to tackle that or not.

Tony D'Amico
Guest

I guess I’ll give this a shot,

1. Iron Man 3-363 (142)
2. Star Trek Into Darkness-327 (124)
3. Monsters University-291 (102)
4. Fast & Furious 6-269 (93)
5 Lone Ranger-263 (72)
6. Man of Steel-261 (81)
7. Despicable Me 2-237 (76)
8. Hangover 3- 225 (74)
9. Pacific Rim- 209 (71)
10.This is the End-196 (64)

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’ll throw my hat into the ring.

1. Iron Man 3 – ($390, $145)
2. Star Trek Into Darkness – ($380, $135)
3. Monster’s University – ($290, $87)
4. Despicable Me 2 – ($275, $77)
5. Man of Steel – ($270, $90)
6. Hangover 3 – ($250, $86)
7. Fast and Furious 6 – ($240, $90)
8. The Heat – ($210, $42)
9. The Wolverine ($185, $75)
10. The Lone Ranger ($180, $67)

I hope that Pacific Rim busts that up.

Courtney Small
Guest

1. Iron Man 3 – $400, 145
2. Man of Steel – $360, 130
3. Star Trek Into Darkness – $325, 120
4. Monster University – 300, 110
5. Despicable Me 2 – $282, 90
6. The Lone Ranger – $270, 85
7. Fast & Furious 6 – $240, 90
8. The Heat – $190, 70
9. The Wolverine – $180, 62
10. After Earth – $162, 55

Benji
Guest

After a week of vacation in New York I guess I should catch up with my Podcast listening,do some “research” and post my picks to defend my title.

Matthew Price
Guest

looking forward to watching you, or someone, kick our asses like every year.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I don’t think that you guys have no clue what you are talking about. It’s just really hard to figure out that even people whose full time job is to track this stuff don’t get it right. As it’s trying to predict the behavior of the complete US & Canada population. Perhaps I should just say movie going public, but even those who don’t regularly go to movies, might show up throwing all sorts of curveballs like what I think we say with Avengers last year.

It’s a complete crapshoot, which I think is one of the main things that playing these contests is fun. 🙂

Benji
Guest

All right, here we go.

1. Star Trek Into Darkness -(400, 120)
2. Iron Man 3 -(315, 140)
3. Despicable Me 2 – (240, 70)
4. Monsters University – (235, 67)
5. Fast & Furious 6 – (230, 80)
6. The Hangover Part III – (220, 75)
7. Man of Steel – (215, 100)
8. The Lone Ranger – (190, 65)
9. After Earth – (189, 60)
10. The Wolverine – (180, 90)

This year seems a lot harder than last year. I can see both Man of Steel and Lone ranger doing between 50 – 300.
Everyone who thinks Pacific Rim is gonna factor in this list is royally kidding themselves. None of Del toro’s movies have made more than 82, and it’s a giant robot flick with virtually no starpower!!!

May 24 is gonna be interesting in terms of opening weekend points. Are Hangover 3 and Fast 6 split up evenly and how is EPIC gonna fare against despicable me 2 and Monsters U?

But as you can see I think Star Trek is gonna fire up (at least) the domestic box office this year and Iron Man 3 is gonna be just as big as 1 and 2.

Angie
Guest

Iron Man 3 is going to kick Star Trek ass. The only way Star Trek beats Iron Man is if they rename it Star Wars.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Yup, Star Trek will also get eaten by Fast 6 and Hangover 3 the following week. Last time around they were lucky to go up against weak competition like X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Terminator Salvation.

Antho42
Guest

1. Iron Man 3 – $400/$150
2. Man of Steel- 350/100
3. Fast 6 – 240-90
4. Pacific Rim 235-70
5. Hangover-220-80
6. Despicable Me 2– 210- 60
7. Monster University- 210-70
8. Star Trek 2– 200-80
9. Wolverine- 185-70
10. After Earth- 160- 50

Jamie
Guest

1 Iron Man 3 351, 142
2 Monsters U 312, 115
3 Star Trek 292, 116
4 Despicable Me II 268, 88
5 Hangover III 223, 73
6 Fast and Furious VI 211, 78
7 Man of Steel 206, 82
8 Pacific Rim 194, 54
9 Lone Ranger 188, 69
10 Wolverine 186, 69

Antho42
Guest
Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, it’s from a company that basically exists to storyboard films and claim they are from graphic novels.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

As that article and other articles have pointed out, Oblivion became a graphic novel as basically a way to get around the writer’s strike of 2007/2008. Joseph Kosinski didn’t want to stop working on it, so rather than continue working on the script and break Writers Guild of America rules it became a graphic novel.

There was an article recently that mentioned that the company Radical Publishing was still going to publish the graphic novel. However, it’s not likely to come out until late 2013 or early 2014. They claim one of the reasons for a delay is that the director doesn’t want to spoil the movie.

Angie
Guest

Just watched the new Man of Steel trailer, oh shit! I think everyone needs to rethink their box office predictions.

Matthew Price
Guest

Yup, based on that I’d say we all underestimated.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Disney has suspended Iron Man 3 ticket sales.

Duh duh duh!!!

matthew price
Guest

Not according to deadline – Disney is pushing for more money from exhibs, but they are the ones suspending sales. I don’t know if you know this, but studios don’t actually sell movie tickets, Gamble. I guess you’d have to be more familiar with the exhibition industry.

🙂

Matt Gamble
Guest

No, they rent prints, and those are being withheld. So, if exhibitors can’t get prints, they have to withdraw ticket sales.

What’s funny is this sort of thing happens all the time, it’s just very rare that it is made so public.

matthew price
Guest

looks like everyone except AMC has settled.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Regal and AMC are still holding out, and they are really the only two that matter. Though from the sound of it, it won’t be for much longer.

Matt Gamble
Guest

In case anyone is wondering, AMC and Regal still have not come to terms with Disney, meaning ~33% of the nations theatres may not be showing Iron Man. And even when they most likely do settle, their are a lot of pissed off consumers who haven’t been able to order tickets due to this.

If people don’t think this is going to affect opening weekend they are fooling themselves.

Darcy Fruitman Sapote
Guest
Darcy Fruitman Sapote

G’day I don’t know if this has been asked but regardless of the film, weekend, we calculate he weekend grosses by only the Fri/Sat/Sun correct, I’ve found some of the films have weird release dates given the token holidays in the US, cheers D’

matthew price
Guest

Out of the frying pan, and smack into The Hangover/F&F6 2nd weekend. It’s actually fairly smart, neither of those has the kind of family demo that AE looks to be after. Meh, I’d say they have very slightly improved their chances from nil to nil+

MrRTJL
Guest

Tough year to pick, but here it goes:

1. Iron-Man 3: 360, 150
2. Man of Steel: 310, 89
3. Star Trek Into Darkness: 275, 78
4. Monsters University: 233, 69
5. Despicable Me 2: 220, 52
6. Pacific Rim: 215, 68
7. Fast and Furious 6: 211, 62
8. The Hangover Part 3: 195, 64
9. The Wolverine: 192, 77
10. The Lone Ranger: 185, 45

Its a race to the bottom. Good luck to everyone!

MrRTJL
Guest

I forgot that Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger are released on a LONG weekend, could I bump up those two predictions?

1. Iron-Man 3: 360, 150
2. Man of Steel: 310, 89
3. Star Trek Into Darkness: 275, 78
4. Monsters University: 233, 69
5. Despicable Me 2: 230, 72
6. Pacific Rim: 215, 68
7. Fast and Furious 6: 211, 62
8. The Hangover Part 3: 195, 64
9. The Wolverine: 192, 77
10. The Lone Ranger: 190, 58

Apologies on the confusion, I blame crazy American holidays.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I know this one is outside of the Contest boundaries, but was the Weekend success of OBLIVION due to a) Tom Cruise; b) A wide open zone in the April release schedule; c) The marketing (Iceland cinematography); or d) a combination of all of the above?

Couple with the international # being even stronger, is this a message to start pushing more ‘non-sequel’ blockbusters into April? I wonder if Fast6 regrets not releasing this weekend, instead of going up against Hangover3.

Matthew Price
Guest

We will address this on the next show.

Sean Kelly
Guest

The way I see it, the summer movie season will eventually morph into the spring/summer movie season as more and more blockbusters get released in March and April.

Remember, it was only a little over a decade ago when late-May/early-June was considered the start of the summer movie season and the early-May success of SPIDER-MAN changed all that.

Matthew Price
Guest

Nope. Twister. May 10, 1996. Before 1996 the summer didn’t start in early may. After twister, it definitely did. Deep Impact, The Mummy, Gladiator, The Mummy Returns were all released in the 1st week of May. Spider-Man made more, but broke no new ground.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Ahh…that film was released in my “too young to care when in the year films were released” period (I was 14)

For the record, it was 1995 when I started becoming a regular movie-goer (walking up to one of my two neighbourhood cinemas).

Mattmovies
Guest

May I recommend:

http://www.google.com

🙂

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, the lengthening of the summer movie season basically coincides with all the changes that were being done on the exhibition side of the industry. Theatre chains no longer had to compete with themselves for the rights to films, and releases were able to open on far more screens than previously. That in turn made it harder to find real estate for films so the summer season was pushed wider, and that sprurred the massive expansion of the megaplex in the 90’s so that chains could get the screen space to show all of these films.

Kurt
Guest

Apparently, Gamble should be a guest on that show. Make it HAPPEN.

Dave Nandes
Guest

Iron Man 3 – 361 / 146
Star Trek Into Darkness – 306 / 110
Monsters University – 252 / 81
Man of Steel – 250 / 88
Despicable Me 2 – 249 / 85
Pacific Rim – 243 / 76
Fast & Furious 6 – 236 / 88
The Hangover Part III – 224 / 81
Lone Ranger – 223 / 88
World War Z – 221 / 80

Angie
Guest
Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Hey Everybody,

My Name’s Thomas Wishloff. My podcast and I decided to make our picks live on air, in a special Bonus episode of our show, which can be found here http://bigkahunaburgerpodcast.podomatic.com/entry/2013-04-24T20_12_40-07_00

I’ll get the other guys to post their picks also

Anyways here goes (I changed mine between the on air and now oops):
1.) Iron Man 3 (400/150)
2.) Star Trek 2 (370/135)
3.) Man of Steel (280/120)
4.) Despicable Me 2 (260/115)
5.) Monsters U. (255/115)
6.) Hangover III (225/ 110)
7.) Fast and Furious 6 (220/100)
8.) The Lone Ranger (190/110)
9.) The Wolverine (185/85)
10.) After Earth (175/ 80)

Thanks So Much For Letting Us Enter and Good Luck To All

Fingerless Hobie
Guest

Hi everyone,
Sorry for the late entry. My condition makes it difficult for me to type.

My selections (total – opening):
———————

1. Iron Man 3 $359M – $146M
2. Star Trek $307M – $109M
3. Despicable Me 2 $249M – $82M
4. Man of Steel $246M – $87M
5. Monster’s U 2 $242M – $80M
6. Pacific Rim $240M – $75M
7. Fast 6 $237M – $88M
8. Hangover 3 $224M – $79M
9. Lone Ranger $223M – $84M
10. Wolverine $184M – $90M

Matthew Pancewicz
Guest

One of The other guys on the big kahuna burger podcast here are my predictions:

1.) Star Trek (350/120)
2.) Iron Man 3 (270/130)
3.) Man of Steel (260/120)
4.) The Wolverine (240/120)
5.) World War Z (200/100)
6.) Monsters U (180/80)
7.) Despicable Me 2 (175/100)
8.) Great Gatsby (171/70)
9.) After Earth (170/70)
10.) Fast and Furious 6 (160/80)

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

AMC kisses and makes up with DISNEY. Resumes Iron3 adv. ticket sales.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-amc-iron-man-20130425,0,2762804.story

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Only Cineplex still seems to be fighting as I looked up tickets today for Iron Man 3 and didn’t see any advanced tickets available. Only smaller 3rd parties had them on for sale. Meanwhile those who did had screenings at 9 pm. Is Iron Man doing one of those “midnight screenings” where it just means they start screenings at 9 or 10 pm?

If so then there is potential for it to have a much bigger opening weekend, since they will be pretending Thursday night screenings are all coming from Friday.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Pretty much every release does early Thursday screenings that are tied into the weekend. The really big ones also do huge national buyouts with their corporate sponsors to help boost numbers.

Andrew James
Admin

I’ve noticed this a lot lately. And not just midnight, but 8pm and later shows. Sometimes even in the afternoons.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

8 pm or early afternoons? That’s just crazy, how is this even slightly midnight or weekend screenings?

I had noticed early screenings in the past but the last ones I remembering noticing were at least after 10 pm. The drift earlier seems to have gotten out of control.

Matt Gamble
Guest

You can “generally” (it honestly varies from studio to studio) do as early as 8 am. Theatre chains rarely honor that as it pisses off the other studios.

Umer Farooq
Guest

Hey I’m Umer One of The Guys on The Big Kahuna Burger Podcast, Here are my predictions:

1.) Man of Steel (350/150)
2.) Star Trek (300/120)
3.) Iron Man 3 (300/120)
4.) Despicable Me 2 (250/100)
5.) The Hangover Part III (240/120)
6.) Pacific Rim (200/120)
7.) Fast and Furious 6 (200/100)
8.) This is The End (180/100)
9.) The Wolverine (180/100)
10.) After Earth (180/90)
10.) Tyler Perry Presents Peeples (180/180)

Matthew Price
Guest
MrRTJL
Guest

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3674&p=.htm

Looks like Box Office Mojo is weighing in with its summer picks:

1. Iron Man 3: 400
2. Despicable Me 2: 300
3. Man of Steel: 290
4. Monsters University: 280
5. Star Trek Into Darkness: 250
6. Fast and Furious 6: 215
7. The Heat: 155
8. The Hangover Part 3: 150
9. Pacific Rim: 145
10. White House Down: 140

I admit, I am slightly unnerved. Neither White House Down or The Heat is on my list.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I hadn’t even heard of the Heat or White House Down until now. White House Down definitely seems to have the makings of a big popcorn summer movie.

MrRTJL
Guest

The Heat is the favored “There-is-always-a-comedy-in-the-top-ten” pick.

White House Down on the other hand is harder to distinguish: though it has Channing Tatum, GI Joe didnt do great, so it fell off the list.

Matthew Price
Guest

We should add this list to the contest standings just for fun.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I think that’s a great idea as I’ll be curious at the end of the year how they did.

Dave Nandes
Guest

Definitely.

Robert Reineke
Guest

No, Hangover 3 is the favored “There-is-always-a-comedy-in-the-top-ten” pick. The Heat is the “The-rest-of-the-list-looks-like-a-sausage-fest” pick.

MrRTJL
Guest

My bad. At this stage I just accept The Hangover will be present in some form. I would rephrase and say The Heat may be a “surprise” comedy hit.

Matt Gamble
Guest

BO Mojo is pretty bad at picking box office winners. I wouldn’t be swayed by them too much.

GE Hale
Guest

I say:

Iron Man 3 450(130)
Star Trek Into Darkness 315(105)
Man of Steel 305(90)
Monsters University 260(78)
Fast & Furious 6 220(85)
The Wolverine 205(80)
Despicable Me 2 200(72)
The Hangover Part III 195(65)
World War Z 180(55)
Pacific Rim 170(60)

Michael M
Guest

Wow! Your “World War Z” prediction is spot on!! I really underestimated Brad Pitt (and listened to the the bad buzz). WWZ is opening 55 mil weekend and probably because of good word of mouth it’ll have 3.2 multiplier like you guessed.

I also skipped Pacific Rim because it seemed like too much of wild card. 🙁

Michael M
Guest

Big fan of the show.

1. Iron Man 3 (375 / 153)
2. Man of Steel (330 / 105)
3. Despicable Me 2 (320 / 117)
4. Star Trek 2 (270 / 125)
5. Monsters U (250 / 75)
6. Fast 6 (215 / 100)
7. Hangover 3 (175 / 85)
8. The Heat (160 / 45)
9. Elysium (145 / 38)
10. We’re the Millers (135 / 30)

Silly reasoning: Elysium is the only popcorn movie with adult subject matter (Bourne, Basterds etc.) “We’re the Millers” is my bet for surprise hit…

My list of most anticipated movies – Pacific Rim, The Kings of Summer, Dirty Wars, I’m so Excited, Grandmasters, Elysium, The World’s End.

Thank you.

Benji
Guest

Elysium is coming out in September so it’s not eligible in this contest, you should revise your list Michael.

Angie
Guest

Wow Iron Man 3 had already made 195 million. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman3.htm

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Box Office Mojo article mentions that Avengers which opened at the same time last year had made only $185 million. However, the horrible Spider-Man 3 a number of years ago had a bigger start bringing in $230.5 million. Unfortunately, there never seems to be enough detail to see if the difference was with number of foreign countries it opened into or something completely different.

Matt Gamble
Guest

IM3 opened on ~80% of foreign territories while Avengers opened on ~70%.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Whoa… I didn’t notice until now that the last day to enter the contest this year is a Wednesday not the traditional Friday. Glad I noticed this now and not before it was too late to enter. Now to find some time to work through my picks.

Kurt
Guest

Giving the F&F crowd what they want with a bit of style. Breathe with me:

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Updating my pics before contest starts….and International box office sends a whiff our way.

1) Star Trek 2 ($360, $140)
2) Iron Man 3 ($359, $130)
3) The Lone Ranger ($290, $170)
4) Man of Steel ($285, $90)
5) Despicable Me 2 ($220, $125)
6) Fast & Furious 6 ($215, $95)
7) Monsters University ($195, $75)
8) Hangover 3 ($200, $70)
9) After Earth ($180, $70)
10) Wolverine ($150, $75)

Not Making The Cut:
Smurfs2 ($110)
Pacific Rim ($110)
White House Down ($95)
World War Z ($95)
Great Gatsby ($85)
Elysium ($85)
Epic ($80)

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

Iron Man 3 – $136m/$347m
Man of Steel – $98m/$312m
Star Trek ID – $101m/$296m
Monsters Uni – $79m/$267m
Despicable Me 2 – $62m/$211m
Fast & Furious 6 – $94m/$203m
The Lone Ranger – $89m/$180m
The Hangover 3 – $79m/$168m
Epic – $43m/$152m
The Smurfs 2 – $49m/$146m

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

Iron Man 3 – $136m/$347m
Man of Steel – $98m/$312m
Star Trek ID – $101m/$296m
Monsters Uni – $79m/$267m
Despicable Me 2 – $62m/$211m
Fast & Furious 6 – $94m/$203m
The Lone Ranger – $89m/$180m
The Hangover 3 – $79m/$168m
Epic – $44m/$148m
The Smurfs 2 – $47m/$142m

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

 Enough talk of 911 on a bun, if I get on the show ill bing some durian from Chinatown & we can chow that’s, will either come to TIFF 2013/14, I’m was tossing up between Epic & Turbo to be my 4th kid flix, I hope smurfs 2 just tips White House Down & Wolverine, I think After Earth Pacific Rim World War Z will all struggle to make $100m, could see The Great Gatsby The Heat & even Intership tipping that figure if they hit there target audiences, I think a clustered May will work against Iron Man, if Superman is good it could make $350m, I’ve got it down to make a decent amount given it ain’t in 3D, much like Star Trek it will warrant a sequel but might not be a great film, I don’t wanna see Despicable Me or Monsters Uni but kids do, don’t wanna see either of the Memorial Day sequels but I’d see the big 3 blockbusters, PR is a no go, other than The Great Gatsby there is no film I’d pay more than $10 for this summer, WEAK (well Only God Forgives & Malick but I’m talking the biggies)

Matt Gamble
Guest

Man of Steel is in 3D.

Antho42
Guest

The more I think about it, the more I think that The Wolverine is going to under-perform.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

1) Iron Man 3 – $170 / $425
2) Star Trek: Into Darkness – $120 / $280
3) Despicable Me 2 – $90 / $270
4) Monster University – $65 / $260
5) Fast & Furious 6 – $100 / $250
6) The Lone Ranger – $100 / 240
7) Superman: Man of Steel – $95 / $230
8) The Hangover 3 – $75 / $200
9) The Wolverine – $85 /$190
10) After Earth – $75 / $180

Not quite top ten.
Elysium – $60 / 175
Pacific Rim – $50 / $150
World War Z – $60 – $140

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Quickest top ten that I’ve thrown together. I’m used to the contest entries ending Friday night. Then I was thinking it had to be in by the end of day Wednesday May 1st. It was Matthew Price’s sharing Kurt’s Facebook statement that I realized it’s tonight. BY MAY 1st if I bothered to read rather than skim. So my list put together in amount 10 minutes or so, with little to no research.

Michael M
Guest

Makes sense. Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger numbers ought to be both 5 day weekends. You have probably missed that…

Michael M
Guest

Wait, what just happened!

Matthew Fabb
Guest

RowThree gives you a small window to edit a post from the same machine and I did bump up the weekend numbers on both of those movies after I realized they had extra days. I think I might re-evaluate my list if I have time as I also have some work research to do.

Kurt
Guest

You have another 14 hours or so, MATT F.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

And… not enough time to research and see when all these movies are opening, competition and all that jazz. Instead I’ve left with my most from the gut, pulling numbers based off of titles list. Let’s see how I do compared to previous years of silly things like figuring out when movies open, what they are going against and past results. 😛

Jordan Canni
Guest

Iron Man (150/350)
Star Trek (115/340)
Man of Steel (90/280)
Despicable (95/270)
Monsters Inc (80/260)
Hangover 3 (65/220)
The Wolverine (95/200)
World War Z (55/180)
Fast 6 (65/175)
Elysium (50/150)

Jordan Canni
Guest

1. Iron Man 3, $350, $150
2. Star Trek Into Darkness, $340, $115
3. Man of Steel, $280, $90
4. Despicable 2, $270, $95
5. Monsters University, $260, $80
6. Hangover 3, $220, $65
7. The Wolverine, $210, $95
8. Fast 6, $175, $65
9. World War Z, $150, $55
10. Elysium, $140, $50

Rick Vance
Guest

I so want to pick someone at random and price is right their list…..

Billingsly
Guest

1. Man of Steel ($400, $125)
2. Iron Man 3 ($350, $150)
3. Monsters University ($300, $100)
4. Star Trek Into Darkness ($275, $90)
5. Despicable Me 2 ($225, $100)
6. Hangover 3 ($205, $68)
7. Fast & Furious 6 ($190, $60)
8. The Wolverine ($160, $70)
9. Lone Ranger ($150, $75)
10. The Heat ($135, $40)

RAJO ZAKIC
Guest

IRON MAN 3 – $340, $125
MAN OF STEEL – $335, $110
STAR TREK – $290, $120
HANGOVER III – $240, $60
FAST SIX – $215, $60
MONSTERS U – $190, $85
PACIFIC RIM – $180, $80
THE HEAT – $160, $45
LONE RANGER – $150, $85
DESPICABLE ME 2 – $145, $50

note: all dollar amounts are in the millions

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

About to see Iron Man in 2D here in Chanthaburi Thailand, I only use my mobile was wondering about y entries, take the 2nd one, lower amounts, I double clicked & found it hard to delete one of them anyway I’m happy with my pics, I think August will be a let down, about to get stuck into a packed May which gives room for at least 3 of my animation pics, I’d like to see the spread, see how many different films were picked, I ended up using the amounts of many of the April films to do determine what might happen this summer, pain & gain for instance shows that unless its a franchise ain’t that many people into too much sexist manlyness, I guess beyond Star Trek I could see this year as being a major bomb year for sci fi, I only today found that u could check seasonal box office results on BOMojo, makes he think that my money predictions might have been high even though I only have 8 films making $150m, can’t believe a film like Promenthus sneaked in at #10, anyway I hope everybody gets a bit of love this summer, don’t u hate it when u have a big punt & it just lets down, anyway will report on IM3 in due time.

Matthew Price
Guest

Enjoy!

GE Hale
Guest

The spreadsheet is updated and working. You can find it here:

http://bit.ly/SBO2013

True aficionados will see that I have added a ranking without seeding as requested last year. I will have to keep an eye on to make sure it works as expected as I haven’t tested it with real data, so let me know if you see a problem.

Good luck to all!

Matthew Price
Guest

Once again, I can’t believe how incredible this is. Great job as always.

Dave Nandes
Guest

Awesome!

Thanks for building this thing out.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Hey Don’t Mean To Be A Pain But Umer Farooq was telling me that he had two film tie for Tenth Place (After Earth and Tyler Perry Presents Peeples) at 180m exactly. I believe that the document has him with just one of those films.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

I think it’s because a player can’t have 11 films in their top 10 as that wouldn’t be fair(they’d have a better chance at scoring more points). GE Hale would probably change Umer’s number 10 to After Earth instead of Peeples, if that’s what he wanted.

GE Hale
Guest

Ah yes, it is clear at second glance that that Mr. Perry’s film was indeed added to that list as a “joke pick”. I have corrected the spreadsheet placing After Earth in tenth place as originally indicated.

Sorry for the confusion.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Yup, fantastic job as usual, Mr. Hale.

Angie
Guest

Iron Man 3 – $160m/$350m
Man of Steel – $120m/$300m
Star Trek – $90m/$280m
The Lone Ranger – $95m/$250m
Monsters Uni – $70m/$260m
Despicable Me 2 – $62m/$250m
Fast & Furious 6 – $94m/$240
The Wolverine – $70m/$225
The Hangover 3 – $70m/$170m
The Smurfs 2 – $55m/$169m

Matthew Price
Guest

Hi Angie,

Unfortunately we can’t count your entry for the contest; it closed at midnight last night.

Angie
Guest

No worries.

Angie
Guest

Iron Man 3 opening weekend is more on track with Avengers than Iron Man 2. Gamble what was that Star Trek-thingy you were talking about.

http://m.deadline.com/2013/05/iron-man-3-21-5m-in-china-breaks-all-opening-day-records-263-6m-international-total-without-may-day-yet-u-s-canada-165m-180m-debut-expected-this-weekend/

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

Hell busy here in thailand, but local screens only had IM3 in 3D, for about Betting under 150/400 I have a feeling that the film could do $150m but may fall ala the last Harry Potter because we all know that quality Dosent always sell as much overseas, I hope enough people have got over 3D to maybe go old school this weekend but hey it’s shane black so if it wasn’t for my tips & dislike or the first two films (though I think IM2 was better shot & more fun) I guess it could still be good but not make grt $$, ill only see it now if it has good reviews, I’d rather spend my last $$ here in thailand on Place Beyond the Pines. Any Aussies on here seen it yet.?.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Our midnight sales are pretty poor for Iron Man (though the last Iron Man did schockingly poor midnight sales as well) which is a bit surprising. Not sure if that is because we were one of the last holdouts to put tickets on sale or if the midnights are going to be the only thing affected by the prolonged negotiations. Will be fun to see once the numbers start coming in toorrow.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Was the screenings actually at midnight? As everyone I know who went to screenings last night saw it at 8 pm or 9 pm screenings. Why see it late a midnight if almost every place is showing the movie earlier in the evening?

Matt Gamble
Guest

By midnight I mean “midnight” as our screenings started as early as 6:30 pm. Overall sales ended up being pretty decent (we were one of the top grossers in the country) but it didn’t feel busy, which is more than likely due to us spreading out the screenings so much.

Even still, we only had 4 sellouts, which is nothing compared to quite a few other midnight movies for us.

Mattmovies
Guest

And here’s this guy:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/

FYI – THIS IS BULLSHIT. It’s like listening to an apple “analyst”.

Matthew Price
Guest

Iron Man 3 has the 2nd best three day weekend in history, just barely edging out the final Harry Potter installment. Already Matthew Fabb (and possibly Tum Tum Tyranus) have picked up bonus points.

http://m.deadline.com/2013/05/iron-man-3-21-5m-in-china-breaks-all-opening-day-records-263-6m-international-total-without-may-day-yet-u-s-canada-165m-180m-debut-expected-this-weekend/

AND THEY’RE OFF

Robert Reineke
Guest

$400 million is a lock for Iron Man 3 at this point. We probably have the #1 film of the summer as MoS is the only film that I think remotely has that kind of upside at this point, and that would take a perfect storm of events, including AMAZING reviews.

Matthew Price
Guest

Agree that it’s #1. Disagree with the 400 million, HP8 had the exact same opening and couldn’t crack 400. This is very VERY front loaded because of Avengers and the drops will be steeper than you are anticipating. Plus lots of stuff in 2 weeks to slow this down. I’m very happy with my 375 prediction right now.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, $375 looks like the magic number right now for this as it could easily (and possibly likely) have a 70% drop next weekend.

The question now is if Star Trek appeals to families enough to have stronger holds (and with it’s fairly dark tone I doubt it), or if Man of Steel is going to get any competition from Monsters U or World War Z to limit its drawing power.

Robert Reineke
Guest

I’ll agree it will be frontloaded, but even with a HP8 multiplier IM3 projects to make $395 million. And none of the IM/Avengers films have had a multiplier that low. It’s hard for me to see a scenario where IM3 is as frontloaded as HP8 given Marvel’s track record to date and the ceiling of The Avengers.

Still, given that, the absolute floor has to be in the $380 million range and I think that’s being too pessimistic. Even at $380 million, it’s hard to see another movie this year compete with that. At worst it’s #2, but that’s a remote scenario.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Box Office Mojo says the following:
“From here on out, if Iron Man 3 performs like Iron Man 2 it will close with $427 million; if it holds up like The Avengers, though, it could earn over $500 million. While word-of-mouth will be more Avengers and less Iron Man 2, a particularly competitive May could keep it closer to Iron Man 2. ”

One of the big things Avengers had going for it was that the other movies that opened in May ended up bombing. So yeah, with Star Trek and Fast & Furious opening up later this month (am I missing any other big ones?) could take it down a few notches.

Matt Gamble
Guest

It also is going to lose its 3-D screens very quickly. Gatsby, Star Trek and Epic are all 3-D and are going to minimize it’s revenue potential because of that.

Also, Potter was a July release, meaning its weekday totals will be much higher than Iron Man’s will be. IM gets that huge opening, but it’s weekday totals will be weaker. If it has any significant weekend drops it’s going to struggle to reach $400.

Man of Steel is going to have a similar issue as the week after it opens World War Z and Monsters U will yank a bunch of its 3-D screens away.

It really could come down to holds and which movie can draw the family audience. Hell, Despicable Me 2 could come out with a $120 open and just crush July where it has little competition and run away with the title.

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

I Love how the guy who made his list in ten minutes is winning the comp. Matt Fabb rippin it up!

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Nice one, Fabb.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Don’t worry, I might get some points for Iron Man 3, but I fully expect to go down in flames later. My picks were too high with no accounting for competition. Which didn’t matter for Iron Man as for opening weekend, there was no competition. I just looked at the weekend and box office total of Iron Man 2 and Avengers and picked a number in between. I think I originally had $175 million, but figured it was too high and went down to $170 losing out on some possible points.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Managed to eke out 1 bonus point. Ha, I’ll take it.

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

IM3 has already outgrossed it’s predecessor, $450m is more like it domestic, this time next week it could be $1b worldwide, u know I think I was just bitter that Avengers beat TDKR last year even though I ain’t a comic book person, I was tempted to put Man of Steel higher, which is weird given I usually like Downey & Black & don’t care for Sydner or most of his cast, ill check IM3 out.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Iron Man 3 is surprisingly quite the good movie. Maybe people just had low expectations from Iron Man 2, but most people I talked to were quite impressed. Not a perfect movie, there are things I wish it had done better, but still very enjoyable.

Goon
Guest

IM3 surprised me, pushing the Marvel line beyond where I thought it was willing to go. I was cynical about the promised darker tone here but Shane Black really made it work for me. If presented right now with Iron Man 4 or Avengers 2, I’d pick to watch Iron Man 4, no question.

Mattmovies
Guest

This pushes ST:ID to an Easy $110 million for the opening weekend:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/star-trek-into-darkness-release-date-move-may-16/

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, this was done over a week ago.

But, you know, what do I know?

Mattmovies
Guest

Article says “Paramount Pictures just announced”. What’s it like being extra right about everything all the time oh wait how would you know?

Matt Gamble
Guest

I won’t lie, it feels pretty good.

Matt Gamble
Guest

As for what happened, Paramount notified theatre chains early last week about the date switch and gave them time to adjust schedules and inform the people who had prepaid. They also wanted to avoid having it announced during IM3’s opening weekend and have it lost in the shuffle. ‘Just Announced’ is simpy a colloquialism.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, my first thought was people who paid for “midnight screenings” (aka 9 pm) were going to be pissed off that their tickets are on opening day. I imagine there is still going to be quite some confusion going on since it’s not too far off now.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Yeah, its kind of a cluster. We’re getting quite a few questions on if we’ll do midnights on both Wednesday and Thursday, which we’ll probably end up doing to lessen confusion.

Angie
Guest
Matthew Fabb
Guest

Meanwhile Joss Whedon jumps in on Whedonesque.com to say that article is BS. At least the part about his deal being $100 million, which likely means the rest can also be taken with a grain of salt as well:
http://whedonesque.com/comments/30943#461251
Also Joss eats unicorns for dinner.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Weekend Warrior is predicting Gatsby at 32.5m. That seems about right.

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=103783

Mattmovies
Guest

Looks like we all underestimated: http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/the-great-gatsby-overperforms-for-3-250-late-shows-breaking-record-for-female-driven-films/

If this estimate ($50 mil weekend) holds, Gatsby makes top ten and Iron Man is dragged down faster than we thought. That, my friends, is the definition of a big if. More likely it makes $40 and places around 12th overall, but hey, welcome to the wacky world of summer box office!

Michael M
Guest

Can ‘Gatsby’ make it to the top ten with $53 mil weekend? The film had a huge marketing push unlike the other female driven films. So I assume it will be more front-loaded than others.

Guys who put ‘Gatsby’ on their list are still way off on the opening weekend numbers. I don’t see them getting any bonus points.

Goon
Guest

I refuse to believe a movie this bad will have any legs.

Rick Vance
Guest

Bad movies have legs all the time.

Matt Gamble
Guest

It’s got fairly favorable exit numbers, which means word of mouth should be decent. This thing will also do well with school groups so it should have fairly decent mid-week numbers too. It’s got a reasonable chance to linger for a bit and top $125.

Antho42
Guest

Leo rivals Will Smith for the best career management of a modern actor. The guy went from a laughing stock, teen idol, to a respectable lead that could also open films.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Almost ironic that my first exposure to to Leonardo DiCaprio was with Romeo+Juliet (another Baz Luhrmann film)

DiCaprio had a hard time escaping the teen heartthrob status in the early 2000s (probably cause he doesn’t seem to age) and it wasn’t until his collaborations with Martin Scorsese that his career got back on track.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Hangover 3 just changed its release date.

Angie
Guest

Even with Gatdby’s big numbers it looks like Iron Man will have a pretty strong hold with 70-80mil.

Kurt Halfyard
Guest

I’m impressed that the public still has such a thirst for Comic Book fare. I’d have figured we were done at this point, but nope, a few more years in the tank still…

Voncaster
Guest

In my opinion, Holywood raiding the comic book shelves for IP is getting predictable and tired.

I’m a comic book fan. But I don’t get excited in the least for the next comic book movie. I respect Alan Moore for actively not lending his name or blessing to film projects.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Only Alan Moore didn’t get upset because the adaptations were so bad (as far as I’m aware he has still yet to see any of them). He got upset when he was dragged into court over League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen, where he was accused of writing the comic as a cover for 20th Century Fox as their stole the IP from some other writer. He found that incredibly insulting, and that the court proceedings wasted his time and from that point forward wanted nothing to do with them.

That said, as a big comic book fan, I’m still excited over comic book adaptations. Sure a number of them really suck, but there continues to be some that turn out great.

Robert Reineke
Guest

It’s kind of ironic that Alan Moore actually doesn’t take all that much care to watch out for IP issues with characters he does use in LOEG books. And Lost Girls. He’s stepped on copyrights more than a few times. He got wrapped up in a lawsuit over something he was innocent of rather than stuff he’s actually guilty of.

I’m still happy to have comic book movies, but the cookie cutter origin films are tiring, although possibly a necessary evil. I am legitimately eager to see Guillermo Del Toro’s supernatural DC characters film though.

Rick Vance
Guest

There is no stepping on copyrights in either of those books.

They are both parodies and as such terms of fair use apply. Even then the characters who are directly named have since fallen into the public domain.

Any character who may have been an issue is referenced but never by name like all the James Bond stuff in 2009 or Tom Riddle in 1969

Robert Reineke
Guest

Considering that Lost Girls had to wait several years for copyright to expire in Britain and Black Dossier still hasn’t been published in Britain, I’d say that there’s evidence that the lawyers disagree with the idea that LOEG and Lost Girls are clearly fair use. It’s arguable that Moore’s Invisible Man also steps all over Universal’s movie copyright, which has several deviations from Wells’ original work. Orlando is still under copyright in the US, as best I can tell. At what point does Moore using Orlando as a main character move from parody/homage to theft? Moore only gets by with Emma Peel by using her maiden name. “Jimmy” Bond is certainly not a disguise, although you could claim parody that’s not always a protection. See The Air Pirates case for example. And I suspect that “Jimmy” Bond (and perhaps Harry Lime and Emma Peel) are why Black Dossier hasn’t been published in Britain.

Certainly parody vs. copyright infringement is often in the eye of the beholder, but we should all know that it’s not always clearcut. And it only takes one angry rights holder and one sympathetic judge. Overall, Moore’s comics are small potatoes which probably explains why a lawsuit isn’t worth it, but we shouldn’t assume that Moore is clearly in the right, especially when many of the works he borrows from already have a satirical bent.

But, does anyone want to claim that if someone wanted to make Black Dossier into a movie, that MGM and Ian Fleming’s estate wouldn’t be threatening lawsuit immediately?

But, in general, I wouldn’t take any legal advice from Alan Moore. I will buy his books though, since they’re great, but just like Murnau was treading on thin ice with his Nosferatu, Moore is on questionable footing as well. Doesn’t mean that Nosferatu or LOEG aren’t great works of art, though.

All of which is really an issue that’s a tangent to the main topic. And, let me add, that I do think there’s still fertile comic book ground to be mined. The superheroine certainly hasn’t been done justice yet. Nor have some less grounded concepts.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Well, just look at the mess that is Marvelman. Moore seems to be tune deaf when it comes to these kind of legal matters. However, I can see the difference between Moore getting offended that he’s accused being a work for hire to cover up 20the Century Fox of stealing IP, to getting what characters are in public domain wrong.

Voncaster
Guest

The key difference for me is what the Artist brings to the table. Copyright issues aside, the majority of the time an Alan Moore book will be interesting and well written. There is a real attempt at artistry.

I would not describe the average superhero film in the same way.

Every movie that makes its way into multiplexes is some combination of capitalism and art. But the Marvel movies, as Kurt points out, feel much more like product than art. Matt G stated that Iron Man 3 will in no way change Kurt’s stance. This more or less confirms my thoughts on these films. I just cannot get excited for a movie that feels like part of a marketing plan. Holywood raiding the comic book shelves for IP is getting tired.

There are of course exceptions. I like Raimi Spider-man, Burton Batman, Nolan Batman, Del Toro Hellboy, Ghost World and Sin City. But on the whole, the average superhero movie that Holywood produces is unappealing to me.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Voncaster, I’m personally a fan of the Marvel Studio movies. They aren’t high art, but I do find them a lot of fun. Marvel Studios has kept the bar pretty high, compared to the Marvel movies done with other studios which personally have been more miss than hit for me.

Also I can’t help but feel like with Iron Man 3 that Marvel are both getting better and taking more risks. They really gave Shane Black more room to put his own stamp on the series. He wanted to make a major departure using the top Iron Man villain and Kevin Feige let him. Iron Man 3 still has it’s flaws, but I think it’s one of Marvel Studio’s best movies to date.

I’m a big fan of Joss Whedon and love that he is managing Phase 2. I’m looking forward to what he does with Avengers 2. I’m excited and curious what James Gunn does with Guardians of the Galaxy, which otherwise I couldn’t care less without Gunn. Giving Edgar Wright Ant Man, sounds a bit risky for Marvel, but I think would be incredible. Once again, I wouldn’t care at all without Edgar Wright.

That said, I don’t even know who is writing or directing Captain America 2 and Thor 2, but it still sounds interesting where they are taking the stories next.

That said, to each their own. While I like them, none of them have become one of my top favorite movies like say Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.

Voncaster
Guest

@Matt Fabb. I certainly don’t want to come across as condescending. If you enjoy the Marvel movies, that is great. I enjoy visiting Reed Richards, Matt Murdoch and company from time to time. Although I tend to get my Marvel fix in graphic novels or 90s cartoons form (nostalgia is powerful drug).

Personally, I feel oversaturated with superhero movies. Maybe Marvel with its regular release schedule becomes, fairly or unfairly, the focal point of my fatigue for frequent releases.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Voncaster, as mentioned in another thread, I hardly read any Marvel or superhero comics these days. The last thing I really liked from Marvel was Warren Ellis Nextwave and that was mainly poking at Marvel and things like Fin Fang Foom is a giant dragon that wears pants. I did like Brian K. Vaughan’s Runaways as well. Anything that gets enough attention as being really good, a bit different and is self-contained I’ll likely pick up in trades. Unfortunately, Marvel hardly does anything self contained. Speaking of Whedon, he wanted to do a Spider-man comic after Astonishing X-men, but it got turned down as it seems that it couldn’t fit into Marvel’s big ball of continuity mess and latest cross-over event.

In comics I see superheros as a very tired genre, where most things have already been done to death and would rather by trades from Vertigo, Dark Horse and Image. Yet for some reason, I still manage to see the movies as a lot of fun.

Rick Vance
Guest

Yeah that is kinda insane 😛

I dipped back in and they couldn’t hold my interest for a lot of the same reasons I have had no desire to see IM3 or go back and watch any of the other films again.

Voncaster
Guest

Yeah I’m the same way with comics. I don’t go Wednesdays to the comic shop to pick up a batch of issues (anymore).

I’ll read the best trades. But I try and mix up my comic book reading. Some Tomine, Ware and Clowes (New Yorker types) and some superhero stuff and some manga. I’ll freely admit that I’m a huge Alan Moore fan. To me he expertly straddles line of high and low brow comics. He puts intelligence in superhero books and put into my mind early that comics have limitless potential as story telling medium.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, all the comics I buy are trades. I do get the occasional single issue, but only digitally. I don’t have room to start filing away comics into long boxes. I already have a bunch of long boxes of comics from when I was a kid, but never find the time to organize and document what I have to sell them.

It was great Free Comic Book Day to get some free comics, but even then for free I’m left with where to put them. As opposed to trades that can fit nicely on the self.

Sean Kelly
Guest

Kurt, all you need to do is go to a convention (such as FanExpo) sometime and you’ll know that there is more than an audience for these types of films.

Don’t underestimate the geeks!

Kurt
Guest

But it’s not the ‘geek audience’ that drives these things up to $300+ Million, it means that a wide, nearly 4-Quadrant audience is embracing them. That was the gist of my comment above.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Here;s the thing, Kurt. The general public now is the Geek audience.

Mattmovies
Guest

There are certainly geeks within all 4 quadrants – and also $300 million is perfectly attainable with strong performance in only 2 of the 4. $600 million needs all 4 – $300 million just isn’t that much money or that many admissions, for that matter. For a 3D blockbuster with a $14 average ticket price that’s only 21 million admissions, or about 14% of the population (less if you figure repeat viewings).

Kurt
Guest

From our own Matt Brown in his swanky new Twitch Column:

“Film fans like to believe that they’re the core of the moviegoing audience, too, but generally speaking they’re not. Iron Man 3 isn’t chugging towards a $400M domestic gross because of the vast and relentless supply of comic book geeks who are feeding their dollars into the till. It’s getting there because – like all blockbusters – it’s appealing to the base, drawing people to the multiplexes all over North America, rather than just on the coasts. And if you multiply the Middle America factor by the Mother of Two perspective, you get a throttle on how many movies per season can theoretically cross over from respectable earnings to Big Money No Whammies…”

http://twitchfilm.com/2013/05/destroy-all-monsters-leo-dicaprio-and-the-myth-of-the-chick-flick.html

Matthew Fabb
Guest

And there still seems a thirst for book adaptions, without the market on that crashing any time soon, despite many flops.

However, I’m guessing that when you mean comic book fare you mean superhero stories, rather than than say 2 Guns, the upcoming action movie with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg that you couldn’t tell was based off a comic unless you looked it up.

That said, it’s no surprise to me that following up with one of the characters from one of the most popular comic book movies of all time, the Avengers, does well at the box office. Perhaps after a series of really bad movies the audience might be turned off, but Marvel Studio movies continue to be good and entertaining. Iron Man 2 was a bit of a step down, but as mentioned Avengers happened and now that most seemed to really enjoy Iron Man 3, I imagine they could easily get an Iron Man 4 even without a good Avengers 2.

Even outside of Marvel Studios, there’s X-men The Days of Future Past coming up and looks like Amazing Spider-Man 2 might tackle one of the more classic storylines. So really, there doesn’t seem to be any indication of things going down, but some good and interesting superhero movies ahead.

Rick Vance
Guest

I am waiting for The Quest for Peace.

However I am not even sure in the current climate where critics don’t affect box office if these movies can die.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Current superhero movies aren’t without their bombs. They might be critic proof but if the adaption is really bad and audiences don’t connect they will still do poorly. Catwoman, The Spirit and Elektra are some more recent ones.

Robert Reineke
Guest

How soon we forget that Green Lantern was a box office disaster for WB.

They may have broken even on Watchmen, and certainly sold a ton of graphic novels, but it was a marginal success at best.

Fantastic Four 2 killed the franchise. Punisher has yet to make money, even though they tried repeatedly. Blade Trinity killed a minor franchise.

There have been plenty of failures. Heck, The Incredible Hulk would be looked at a lot more critically if Iron Man hadn’t been successful beyond anyone’s imagination.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Green Lantern definitely would have been a better example of a more recent failure. I wasn’t trying to go through all the recent superhero movies that failed.

My point was simply that these movies didn’t fail because critics turned against them but because audiences turned against them. That they had either a combination of bad marketing or looked unappealing or bad word of mouth, etc.

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

IM3 arguably the better of the three films in the trilogy, like other Marvel films the film lacks a more consistent tone which arguably should be more light, makes the previous two films look more slight, the humor & acting made up for the plot and action but I did think in places Shane Black showed good staging, again a week villain, which brings me to Stark Trek ID which I saw today in Malaysia, worth seeing just for Cumberbatch, acting across the bridge r great, a very well shot film that has much better stakes & motives than its May blockbuster counterpart, for someone who Dosent have any emotional connection to Star Trek, I liked it more than the ok 2009 reboot, heard it has many nit pick able elements but I’m more interested in themes which aren’t fleshed out, I see the link to other Lindelof scripts, I’d rather a darker tone to live up to the title, humor went down better in this film, I could see if having legs unless there is a backlash by the fan boys, again I think the film it setting up for something even more epic/better, if u don’t like the previous ST don’t bother with this, u will rip it apart, has a better 3rd act than previous JJ films but again if u don’t like his films don’t bother with this, would I see a sequel to Into Darkness, new scriptwriters & more Cumberbatch would, nuff said.

Angie
Guest

IM3 only had a 58% drop off making 72.5 million this weekend.

Sean Kelly
Guest

I’m all ready for seeing Star Trek in IMAX this weekend.
(on a side note, the introduction of passbook last year has greatly increased my online movie ticket purchases.)

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Pick up tickets at the theatre? I rather just go with the printout option than stand in another line. I have used to mobile app often to check times, but still generally use the website on my desktop or laptop to buy tickets.

Sean Kelly
Guest

There are separate kiosks for mobile pick-up. I haven’t had to line-up for one yet. I just scan the barcode, grab the ticket, and head on in.

Also, I expect that Cineplex will eventually give the option of directly scanning mobile orders. It took a few years for the “Print-Skip-Scan” of conventional online orders to be implemented (I’m personally happy that I don’t have to bring a large printout to the theatre anymore).

Matthew Fabb
Guest

“I expect that Cineplex will eventually give the option of directly scanning mobile orders…”

Perhaps if Apple finally implements NFC, then there might just be the tap of the phone onto another device rather than having to scan. Majority of Android, Window and Blackberry phones all have NFC. It’s just Apple is the last hold out.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Exhibitors and ticketing agents would need to upgrade as well, though I’m sure they’d follow up in short order if all the carriers fall in line.

In related news, don’t be surprised if the Box Office literally goes the way of the Dodo with newer theatres.

Andrew James
Admin

Pisses me off when there’s a long line at the box office and then people use their credit cards to pay when no one is using the kiosks. People are dum.

Mattmovies
Guest

Still don’t see how a tap is more convenient than a scan. NFC is this year’s QR codes.

Matt Gamble
Guest

It probably isn’t much, if at all, but certain chains do like to appear to be on the cutting edge when it comes to tech.

Andrew James
Admin

As much as I would like to jump on this and run (because Apple is very much way behind on mobile innovation these past couple of years), I have to agree with Mattmovies. I’ve had NFC for quite a while now and other than to test it out, I’ve never used it. Never seen anyone use it and I doubt I’ll ever* use it.

*ever meaning anytime in the foreseeable future (i.e. the next couple of years)

Andrew James
Admin

That said, if little touch pads suddenly became fairly ubiquitous and easier to use (like my bus pass for instance) then it might be something worthwhile.

Just have the movie and time you want ready to go on your phone, touch it to a reader and Google wallet auto deducts the funds and you’re in the theater literally within a few seconds… or something like that.

Kurt
Guest

On getting people to use NFC: “We’ll have to dress it up a little. Disguise it. Give them enough reason to believe in it.” -Michael Caine’s Doppelganger.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

The credit card companies, banks and carriers are all jumping over each other trying to get NFC mobile payments together. I think it is just a matter of time before some system is ironed out and payments made with phones start happening.

Also as a developer perhaps I just see more usage in NFC as I have plenty of friends who have made all sorts of little things with NFC. As they can be great for task automation.

A friend of mine has an NFC enabled smartphone case. If she puts her phone into the case one way, the volume goes to max. If she flips it over and puts it into the case the other way, the volume turns off. So when she is in movie theatre, rather than fiddling with settings, she just puts her phone into the case one way. Meanwhile when she is putting her phone into her bag and wants to make sure she can hear it, then flip it around and all the way up to max. She has gotten enough interest in these cases from other people to make them, but she instead just posted an article showing how people could make them themselves. (As a developer, I imagine her hourly wage is a lot higher than anything she could make hand building people cases.)

I have another friend who has put an NCF card in his car and he taps it with his phone before leaving his car and it saves the GPS location. As he is horribly forgetful and has many times had problems finding his car.

Once again, I have friends who do the kind of hardware hobbyist kind of thing and building stuff like that can be both fun and useful.

Also as someone with a number of mobile devices and tablets, it can be convenient in moving a file (picture, song, movie) from one device to another. However, transfer is actually being made via bluetooth, NFC just makes it more seamless. There’s now bluetooth headsets, speakers and more where all you have to do is tap the 2 devices together rather than the much longer bluetooth process. The same thing could be done for wifi rather than a painfully long password that you keep getting wrong (damn small iPhone keyboards).

NFC was first made a standard way back in 2004. It’s been a long time coming and with cheaper hardware and better developer APIs, I think it still has a lot of potential up ahead.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

I’m curious to see how Gatsby affects Star Trek’s opening.

Nathan
Guest

Mr. GE Hale- I forgot to factor in Memorial Day for a couple of new releases that weekend and bumped them up on April 30, it’s in a post right below my original predictions post. Would you be so kind to change those 2 predictions? Then I’ll be able to sleep at night. Thanks in advance.

GE Hale
Guest

Done!

Goon
Guest

Star Trek is a lot of fun and will make a shitload of money.

Devin Faraci calls it “objectively bad” 😛 and will remind you on twitter about it every 15 minutes for the next several weeks if not months.

Matthew Price
Guest

I can’t wait to hear what Devin Faraci thinks SAID NO ONE EVER.

MrRTJL
Guest

Box Office Mojo predicts a 100 million, 4 Day weekend for Star Trek Into Darkness. I picked the wrong year to underplay my hand. *Throws in towel*

Robert Reineke
Guest

How good is that actually? In 2009, Star Trek opened to $75 million over a 3 day weekend. With inflation, 3D, and an extra day, is STID opening much better?

And, will it have the legs of the the 2009 film or will it be more frontloaded?

I realize that they’re really banking on expanding the international numbers for STID, but something seems to have missed the mark with the domestic marketing.

Mattmovies
Guest

You hit it on the head. I would say that ST 2009 scraped all the north american fan base there was. I’m not sure there’s much room for growth there and I think they’ll be very happy with a repeat performance coupled with significant overseas growth.

Nathan
Guest

Question: Since the Star Trek Into Darkness release date was moved up a day after the deadline to get the predictions in are we still just counting the original 3 day gross for opening weekend?

Matthew Price
Guest

Nope. The unpredictability of studio decisions is part of this game. Last year several people picked GI Joe 2, and got way more majorly screwed. This is no different from a playoff pool where a key player is injured.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/star-trek-into-darkness-3d-opens-to-2m-late-night-and-imax/
Star Trek has a weak opening of just $13.4 million for Wednesday night and Thursday. They are estimating a $25 to $27 for Friday and $80 to $88 million over the weekend for around $100 over 4 days.

I wonder how much of that weak Thursday, is simply because people were not aware that the date had changed. With posters and ads still having the old date and there being plenty of confusion.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Latest estimates are a lot smaller.
“$22M for Friday, $70M for the 3-day weekend, and $83M for the 4 1/2-day total. Rival studios have numbers of $21.6-$22.0M for Friday, $56.2M-$66.2M for the 3-day weekend, and $69.7M-$75.5M for the 4 1/2-day total.”

Basically, it’s looks like it will be doing less than 2009’s Star Trek opening weekend despite 3D tickets, more IMAX, etc. Part of that looks like the audience seeing it Thursday, but it looks like the audience for Star Trek has shrunk slightly.

Matt Brown
Guest

Yup, this is bad news and getting worse. We’re recording on Monday, by the way, so we’ll be responding to the actuals when they come in.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I’ll be seeing Star Trek tonight and then later tonight taking a look at the advertising and see what it looks like. I’ve seen the 8 minutes of early footage on IMAX and that’s about it beyond posters and still shots. However, the picture of the Enterprise going down, right away seems targeting Star Trek fans too much. I don’t think regular non-Star Trek audience members cares if the Enterprise blows up.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Heh, my “for funsies” 3-day prediction was 67.

Angie
Guest

And for the second year in a row Marvel wins the summer before it even starts. I think Man of Steel will make a lot more money than Superman Returns but still won’t come close to IM3.

Antho42
Guest

Yep, Star Trek won’t have that much legs in terms of the box office, I think. It has to compete with Fast 6, Hungover, Gatsby, and Iron Man 3.

Antho42
Guest

Of all the movies he has directed, how many JJ films have done great in the box office? MI III and Star Trek (did nothing in the international box office) did alright. Super 8 was a disappointment. Star Tre Deus looks like it is going to under-perform.

In fact, looking at his filmography, his most successful film has been Armageddon — and he is only a writer on that project.

Michael M
Guest

Totally agree. JJ has a serious problem with scope and scale. Everything looks like made for TV or worse iPad. He sells these big budget movies with mystery/hook (like a tv show) whereas other filmmakers (Bay/Cameron/Nolan/Jackson) sell it with Epic scope/explosions etc. (I like JJ’s pacing a lot though.)

He might make Star Wars look like a big budget FRINGE episode.

Angie
Guest

I know everyone hates him but Devin Faraci is right. Paramount should have promoted the hell of the Khan factor and not hidden it. And now look at the box office.

Oh yeah, it might help if JJ didnt tell everyone how much he doesn’t like Star Trek in every TV interview he does.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

That wouldn’t have mattered. Nobody knows Khan and the people who do were gonna watch regardless.

Eff devin faraci. Nick Nunziata and Justin Wadel are better(they actually podcast).

Thomas Wishloff
Guest

Nobody Knows Kahn I Beg To Differ

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Geeks know Khan but not the average moviegoer.

Robert Reineke
Guest

Can we stop pretending that Star Trek is a niche property. It’s 13 films in (which consistently do $200 million or so adjusted for inflation), 5 major television series, and 50 years of pop culture references. There are many franchises that would kill to be as successful as Star Trek.

Yes, it’s not as successful as Star Wars or Bond. Or Harry Potter, Batman, Iron Man, Transformers, LotR, Iron Man, and Hunger Games to cite more recent examples. But, it’s certainly a popular, longstanding franchise. You don’t get to flood the market with that much product without it being popular.

If it’s a niche, it’s an awfully big niche. Perhaps that was the issue, they believed that the niche is small and they didn’t need to appeal to it.

Sean Kelly
Guest

At best, Star Trek is a mainstream niche property.

Along with comic books, Star Trek has formed the basis where geek culture has been formed. It’s no coincidence that there was ALWAYS been at least one Star Trek cast member at every convention I’ve been at.

Also, it’s the “Trekkie,” which forms the stereotype of basement dwelling geeks, who don’t know reality from fiction.

Sean Kelly
Guest

BTW, apparently “Trekkie” is considered derogatory, while “Trekker” is the preferred term.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

I don’t think it’s as niche as it used to be but I also think that it only just recently started to cross the mainstream threshold, so marketing the Khan element wouldn’t have really made a significant difference.

Angie
Guest

Thanks for the head up. Their podcast is pretty good.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

They’re more of a comedy cast but yeah, it’s nice to get a bunch of variety in your podcast listening.

Angie
Guest

Yeah, their dry humor just does it for me. I listened to an older episode and it had me cracking up pretty bad.

Sean Kelly
Guest

It seems that the official reason for keeping the reveal secret is that they didn’t want to have a film where the audience knew more than the characters.

They went as far to create alternate versions of scenes to hide the reveal.

http://www.slashfilm.com/j-j-abrams-created-an-alternate-scene-to-preserve-the-secret-of-star-trek-into-darkness/

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

My rationale of predicting a 67 3 day OW: General audiences liked Star Trek, thought it was good, but not anything spectacular that they’d have to see in a theater and so when STID came around, a lot of them were fine with just waiting for dvd release (originally my number was lower but then I figured in a 3d bump). Also, like I stated before, Star Trek was fortunate enough to go up against weak competition like Wolverine.

Next week Trek is gonna get bro-r**ed.
“WE HUNGRY”