Mamo #247: The Snark Fight Rises

WELCOME TO THE SUMMER, boys and girls! Mamo’s summer box office contest kicks off once again, and we give you our picks for what the top ten films of the 2012 season will be.

To download this episode, use this URL: http://rowthree.com/audio/mamo/mamo247.mp3

CONTEST ENTRIES ARE NOW OFFICIALLY CLOSED. THANKS FOR ENTERING. We will tally the results in mid-September and announce the winner on the show; in the meantime, feel free to continue to use this thread to chat up the summer results. You can also watch the leader board for the contest right here (thanks to GE Hale!).

Rules:

THE SUMMER STARTS ON MAY 1 AND ENDS ON AUGUST 17, in terms of movies you can pick. Please work by domestic release dates only and with domestic grosses only. Scores will be tabulated after the Toronto International Film Festival is over.

Players will submit the following:

Top ten films, in order of total grosses. Also total gross $ amount and opening weekend gross $ amount. So as an example, submissions should look like this:

1. Dark Knight Rises, $402 million, $175 million
2. Avengers, $375 million, $150 million

Points awarded for:

A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.
B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.
C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.
D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.
E. 10 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $1 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

F. 5 Bonus Points for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $5 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

G. 1 Bonus Point for every film who’s opening weekend gross is within $10 million of the actual opening weekend gross.

E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross AND within $1 million of the opening weekend gross.

F. For the purposes of calculating weekends – Films opening on a Wednesday are counted until the first Sunday they are released. Films opening on Memorial Day weekend are counted until the following Monday. Films opening the week of July 4 are counted from whenever they open in that week until the first Sunday of their release. Example – Spiderman opens on Tuesday, July 3. Your guess for weekend gross would actually be its 6 day total, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

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Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Well done on the title of this podcast. I chuckled. Hard.

Matt Price
Guest

HOLY SHIT I JUST GOT THAT. IT’S WORDPLAY.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I’m going to take a guess there that this new opening weekend rule will be what makes the winner. However, having an opening weekend that last 6 days seems a bit much. Perhaps it would have been simpler to just include the opening day gross. But rules are rules.

Yeah, I agree that Joker as a character and Heath Ledger’s performance really drove box office of The Dark Knight. I personally think Bane is a bit of an uninteresting character and when you combine that with the fact that it might be hard to hear what he is saying, I have my doubts about The Dark Knight Rises being #1 this year.

However, I think the biggest challenge with this contest is separating your own personal biases for movies and seeing what the general population thinks of a movie & its marketing. Like I see a lot of positive buzz with Total Recall from most people, despite some complaints on Row Three. I think it might do okay, but not sure yet if it will be on the top ten or not.

I’m likely going to keep with tradition and post my final picks on the last day.

Matthew Price
Guest

The six day thing is to try and acknowledge the intent of having a big film like ASM open over a holiday. To the filmmakers and the public, that 6 day figure is the one that will matter. It’ll be the one in the news, etc. So that’s what we’re guessing at. Look, I picked $200 million for that, so I’m as disadvantaged as anybody.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

I’m currently putting together my picks using the best scientific methods known to man!

(actually I’m just referencing IMDB and Box Office Mojo :P)

antho42
Guest

You guys are nuts — Prometheus is not going to be massive box office hit.

antho42
Guest

Prometheus — rated R or rated PG13?

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

From what I hear, it will probably get a PG-13, though Ridley Scott assures us it will be “kinda R” (whatever that means)

antho42
Guest

Alien Franchise
1 Aliens $85,160,248
2 Alien Vs. Predator $80,282,231
3 Alien Fox $78,944,891
4 Alien 3 $55,473,545 2,227
5 Alien Resurrection $47,795,658
6 Aliens Vs. Predator – Requiem $41,797,066

Matthew Price
Guest

The length of time between “legit” alien films is so long that these sorts of numbers aren’t always the best indicator. Look at AvP, as an example. It’s fucking terrible and not 1 person could possibly consider it canon, but because of ticket price inflation it’s the #2 grossing film in the franchise. I think we’re really basing our guess on an adjusted for inflation total that comes when you produce a no holds barred great Alien film. To date, there’s only been 2 of those, and if you adjust the take on Alien and Aliens to today’s dollars you get approximately:

Alien – 240 million
Aliens – 175 million

Again, you’re free to disagree with the assessment, but I assert that the true alien films have a lot of credibility and a lot of goodwill with fans that remains undiminished.

Andrew James
Admin

Which is why I have never understood the fascination with box office numbers. Why on earth is a movie’s success not based on number of tickets sold? Pure and simple. This eliminates all of the second guessing with 3D prices, inflation, re-issues, etc.

I’m sure there’s a good reason – and I think it’s sort of like sports, the industry always wants to be “breaking records” – it’s hype.

Am I wrong?

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Marketing! Marketing! Cultural Perception! It’s the name of the game. And a fun game at that…

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation
1) Alien – $246,270,300
2) Aliens – $179,731,700
3) Alien 3 – $104,664,500
4) Alien Vs. Predator – $101,225,400
5) Alien Resurrection – $81,533,800
6) Aliens Vs. Predator – Requiem Fox $46,381,200

So I think the potential is there, especially as a big Ridley Scott sci-fi movie.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

OK, I made my picks, listened to the show, made a couple small changes based on what was said and here’s what I came up with:
1. Dark Knight Rises – $800 million, $250 million
2. The Avengers – $500 million, $200 million
3. The Amazing Spider-Man – $400 million, $200 million
4. Brave – $280 million, $65 million
5. The Bourne Legacy – $250 million, $75 million
6. Prometheus – $200 million, $50 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted – $170 million, $50 million
9. Men in Black III – $150 million, $60 million
9. Snow white and the Huntsman – $135 million, $50 million
10. Total Recall – $130 million, $40 million

Matt Gamble
Guest

$800 million would break the domestic record by $40 million and without a 3D surcharge. Hell, it would top the highest grossing 2D film by almost $200 million.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

You forgot about the IMAX surcharge Mr Gamble.

Back in 2008, it cost about the same they charge for 3D today. Nowadays (in Canada at least), they charge $18.99 for an IMAX ticket (though I cheat and ALWAYS redeem reward points for my IMAX tickets :P).

Also, I am sure that they are also going to show the film on the premium “not quite IMAX” screens (i.e. UltraAVX for Cineplex, ETX for AMC), which will also costs a premium price.

With all these premium prices, I believe that THE DARK KNIGHT RISES will make A LOT more money, even if not many more people go to see it.

Matt Gamble
Guest

IMAX will bring it maybe $40 million. Ghost Protocol made $46 million worldwide on IMAX. 3D was ~25% of Avatar’s BO grosses. Their simply aren’t enough IMAX screens, nor do films typically have extended runs on them to make them a major factor.

Hunger Games did roughly $10 million on IMAX its first week, which is less than10% of its overall grosses. You’re vastly overestimating how much of an impact IMAX actually has.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

I’m going to admit that I probably overshot my Dark Night Rises estimate and I decided that I’ll remove a couple hundred from that total before it’s too late.

Updated List:
1. Dark Knight Rises – $600 million, $250 million
2. The Avengers – $500 million, $200 million
3. The Amazing Spider-Man – $400 million, $200 million
4. Brave – $280 million, $65 million
5. The Bourne Legacy – $250 million, $75 million
6. Prometheus – $200 million, $50 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted – $170 million, $50 million
9. Men in Black III – $150 million, $60 million
9. Snow white and the Huntsman – $135 million, $50 million
10. Total Recall – $130 million, $40 million

Cringe
Guest

I want to know what Price was drinking, Spider-Man over The Avengers? No one i know is pumped to see another Spider-Man film. I think they rebooted it way too early and their looking at X-Men First Class numbers. Plus the Avengers have had 5 films all advertising The Avengers is coming. That’s one hell of a promotion.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, I personally haven’t seen many people excited about Amazing Spider-Man. The positive reactions even seem to be phrased as “hey, that Spider-man movie might not suck”. Despite the reboot, the audience is always one film behind and the last film was pretty bad. Look at say the Incredible Hulk or even Batman Begins, both movies that had to work on gaining back the audience trust after a previous bad film.

Kurt
Guest

So, if there is one thing we can all agree upon in the third row it is this: We are all anticipating Ridley Scott’s return to the ALIEN universe – more than anything else this summer!

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

The real test for Prometheus is not whether I want to see it. It’s whether I would want to see it AGAIN.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I was going to correct you that there was something else that I was looking forward to me. Possible Whedon doing the Avengers… but then I thought about it for a bit and realized you’re right, there isn’t anything more this summer that I’m looking forward to than Ridley Scott returning not just to Alien, but to him doing a new big science fiction movie.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

I’m still waiting for another There’s Something About Mary, which 14 years later is still (in my opinion) the summer sleeper hit to beat.

It opened mid-July in 1998, slowly started gaining attention, and finally topped the box office in its EIGHTH WEEK (which happened to be the week I saw it :P)

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

Of course, these days films don’t top the box office with a weekly gross of only $12 million.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=1998&wk=36&p=.htm

Cringe
Guest

I think the fanboys are overestimating Prometheus (which is my most anticipated summer blockbuster). To the “average” movie going public, I think it looks like some random Sci-Fi adventure film with no major stars. i absolutely love the cast but none of them can open a movie by themselves. Also I don’t think the link to the Alien films is strong enough for the “average” movie goer to connect the two. Which is why don’t think it will have a huge opening weekend. I think if it’s any good, word of mouth is where it could pick up some traction. That’s a big “If”.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I imagine the marketing will tie together Prometheus with both Alien & Bladerunner. That said, the possibility of it getting an R rating, I think could be the biggest thing that could hurt it’s box office potential.

Goon
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises, $540M, $180M
2. The Avengers, $290M, $120M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man, $245M, $75M
4. Brave, $240M, $70M
5. Prometheus, $190M, $75M
6. Men in Black 3, $170M, $80M
7. Dark Shadows, $165M, $60M
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift, $160M, $60M
9, The Campaign, $140M, $50M
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation, $130M, $55M

The Het
Guest

1. The Avengers, $344M, $144M
2. Dark Shadows, $296M, $114M
3. Battleship, $274M, $99M
4. Snow White/Huntsmen, $244M, $87M
5. Madagascar 3, $222M, $74M.
6. Rock of Ages, $211M, $69M.
7. Abraham Lincoln/Vampire Hunter, $197M, $55M.
8. GI Joe 2, $184M, $50M.
9. Savages $155M, $44M.
10. Tyler Perry Marriage Counselor, $124M, $39M,

Matthew Price
Guest

Okay, I’ll bite. No Batman? I’m kinda impressed, actually.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I don’t see The Dark Knight Rises doing The Dark Knight numbers, but in my opinion I don’t see anyway for it to at least not get into the top ten.

Cringe
Guest

Love your voicemails, but what?????????

Matthew Price
Guest

???

Matt Gamble
Guest

The Het leaves voicemails on the Film Junk podcast.

Matthew Price
Guest

Here is my list, just for the record.

1. The Dark Knight Rises, $420M, $210M
2. The Amazing Spider-man, $365M, $200M
3. The Avengers, $320M, $115M
4. Brave, $231M, $65M
5. Prometheus, $230M, $80M
6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted, $220M, $50M
7. The Bourne Legacy, $210M, $60M
8. MIB 3, $160M, $60M
9. Ice Age: Continental Drift, $150M, $35M
10. What to expect When You’re Expecting, $145M, $40M

Don’t everybody thank me at once.

David Brook
Admin

Here goes nothing…

1. Dark Knight Rises, $550M, $180M
2. The Avengers, $300M, $120M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man, $300M, $110M
4. Battleship, $230M, $90M
5. Prometheus, $220M, $70M
6. Bourne Legacy, $210, $60M
7. Brave, $200M, $50M
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift, $190M, $45M
9. Dark Shadows, $180M, $50M
10. Men in Black 3, $160M, $50M

I’m sure a sleeper comedy will sneak in there too, but I can’t predict which one.

rot
Guest

1. Dark Knight Rises, $480M, $190M
2. The Avengers, $306M, $110M
3. Brave , $290M, $120M
4. Snow White and the Huntsman, $220M, $90M
5. Battleship, $215M, $120M
6. Dark Shadows, $210M, $100M
7. MIB III, $190M, $90M
8. What to Expect when you are Expecting, $189M, $80M
9. GI JOE Retaliation, $175M, $75M
10. The Amazing Spider-man, $170M, $90M

rot
Guest

my bets are Prometheus, Total Recall and Bourne Legacy all tank, and Snow White and Dark Shadows do better than expected.

See you at the bottom.

antho42
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises 540m, 185m
2. The Avengers, 380m, 130m
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 290 m, 110 million
4. Brave 260 million, 90 million
5. Battleship 240 million, 75 milion
6. Ice Age 200 million, 70 million
7. MIB III, 200 million, 80 million
8. Snow White and the Huntmans, 180 million, 60 million
9. Bourne Legacy 160 million, 60 million
10. Gi Joe 160 million, 70 million

CS
Guest

I made the mistake of putting too much faith in Pixar last year…so why not do it again. :p

Dark Knight Rise – $450M, $190M
Avengers – $300M, 175M
Brave – $250, $70M
The Amazing Spider-Man – $230, $120M
Prometheus – $200, $60
MIB 3 – $175, $75M
Bourne Legacy – $150, $50
G.I Joe Retaliation – $140, $50M
Neigborhood Watch – $130, 45M
Snow White and the Huntsman – $125M,

CS
Guest

I forgot to include the opening weekend gross for Snow White: 55M

CS
Guest

At least I called one opening weekend right, doubt it will happen again though.

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

Nice one, CS

Cringe
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises 450m, 170m
2. The Avengers, 380m, 160m
3. Battleship 280m, 70m
4. The Amazing Spider-Man, 270m, 95m
5. Brave 260m, 70m
6. Snow White and the Huntsman, 245m, 67m
7. MIB III, 220m, 80m
8. Dark Shadows, 210m, 60m
9. GI Joe: Retaliation, 200m, 75m
10. Madagascar 3, 175m, 60m

Benji
Guest

Here go my 2 cents…

1. The Dark Knight Rises 500m, 165m
2. The Avengers 300m, 130m
3. Brave 250m, 60m
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 220m, 90m
5. Prometheus 180m, 50m
6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted 170m, 60m
7. The Bourne Legacy 165m, 45m
8. Ice Age:Continental Drift 160m, 40m
9. Men in Black III 150m, 45m
10. Snow White and the Huntsman 149m, 60m

I’m surprised at how many of you think Dark Knight is gonna crush the Opening Weekend record of Harry Potter 7.2. (169m)

Cringe
Guest

I agree I think The Dark Knight Rises will make bank. But I don’t know if it will break the record, The Dark Knight had the Heath factor and a year of the best viral marketing ever.

arjay
Guest

Dark Knight Rises – 550m, 175m
The Avengers – 360m, 120m
Brave – 285m, 80m
Madagascar 3 – 255m, 80m
Amazing Spider-Man – 240m, 85m
Ice Age: Continental Drift – 205m, 75m
Snow White and the Huntsman – 185m, 75m
Dark Shadows – 180m, 65m
Total Recall – 170m, 45m
Prometheus 165m, 55m

Matt Gamble
Guest

To good for Battleship but Fast & Furious 6 and you’ll be there with bells on. Got it.

Andrew James, the discerning fanboy.

Andrew James
Admin

Fuckin A!

Cringe
Guest
dave
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises $440 million, $195 million
2. The Avengers $320 million, $110 million
3. The Amazing Spiderman $300 million, $95 million
4. Brave $240 million, $67 million
5. Snow White and the Huntsman $225 million, $45 million
6. Prometheus $165 million, $37 million
7. Men in Black III $160 million, $35 million
8. Madagascar 3 $158 million, $35 million
9. G.I. Joe Retaliation $145 million, $32 million
10. Ice Age: $122 million, $27 million

Dave Nandes
Guest

All numbers are in millions.

1. Dark Night Rises – 520 / 180
2. Avengers – 360 / 160
3. Spider Man – 250 / 125
4. Brave – 220 / 80
5. MIB – 210 / 70
6. Ice Age – 200 / 55
7. Dark Shadows – 185 / 50
8. Madagascar – 180 / 60
9. Snow White – 175 / 40
10. Prometheus – 155 / 60

Huzzah!

Marcus
Guest

I would to say Suck It, Matthew Price.(Just Kidding)

http://m.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-avengers-dark-knight-rises-box-office-312398

Spiderman my ass!

Cringe
Guest

I hope that holds up I might be on the money.

Cringe
Guest

It’s still real early, but is there chance that Avengers could top Iron Man’s 94% on the tomatometer? The press for Europe and some of the US are loving the shit out of it.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/marvels_the_avengers/

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Fandango did a survey on what films people were looking forward to and here is the breakdown between men & women:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/avengers-snow-white-dark-knight-fandango-summer-movie-survey-312606

Men’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1. “The Avengers” 31%
2. “The Dark Knight Rises” 23%
3. “The Bourne Legacy” 14%
4. “Men in Black 3” 8%
5. “Prometheus” 7%

Women’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1. “Snow White and the Huntsman” 22%
2. “The Avengers” 16%
3. “Men in Black 3” 13%
4. “The Dark Knight Rises” 10%
5. “Dark Shadows” 8%

Avengers doing better than The Dark Knight Rises among men and on top of that, it’s the #2 pick for women. Once again, The Dark Knight had the appeal of Heath Ledger, while Rises has Tom Hardy under a muffling mask.

Also Snow White and the Huntsman is looking to be a hit with women. Dark Shadows is tracking along women despite the fact that it’s advertising campaign just started. Now it’s only a top 5, but Amazing Spider-Man is no where to be seen on either list.

I have an inching feeling that Avengers will beat out the Dark Knight Rises, but not 100% if I will go with it when I finally commit to some sort of numbers for the contest. Especially considering that the Dark Knight has less competition in the middle of the summer.

toro913
Guest

Dark Knight Rises – 620\180
Avengers – 375\150
Amazing Spider-man – 300\100
Brave – 220\75
MIB 3 – 200\60
Ice Age 4 – 190\45
Snow White and the Huntsman – 175\60
Madagascar 3 – 160\35
Battleship – 155\50
Prometheus – 150\40

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Total Gross at end of summer \ Opening Weekend

1. Avengers – 500\125
2. Dark Knight Rises – 480\125
3. Amazing Spider-man – 240\95
4. Brave – 225\75
5. MIB 3 – 215\55
6. Snow White and the Huntsman – 200\65
7. Madagascar 3 – 185\50
8. G.I. Joe 190\55
9. Prometheus – 165\60
10. Bourne 4 – 160\50

just for fun addendum:

Bombs-0-Matic:
Battleship – 140\55
Total Recall 115\40

Dark Horses:
Dark Shadows 150\35
What to Expect 70\25

Kurt
Guest

I was right on the money for the Weekend Estimate for MIB:3, but I suck for not accounting for the extra day on the US MemorialDay weekend. #RTFM

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Tum Tum Tyranus
Guest

I like your Snow White numbers too (starting to regret not putting it on my list).

With the GI Joe move, Prometheus’ R rating, and my MIB overestimation, May is kicking my ass.

Tal Aulbrook
Guest

1. Dark Knight Rises 575\240
2. Avengers 480/200
3. Amazing Spiderman 280/135
4. Snow White & The Huntsman 220/110
5. Madagascar 3 190/65
6. Prometheus 180/60
7. Brave 170/65
8. Neighborhood Watch 160/ 75
9. G.I Joe Retaliation 155/70
10. Rock of Ages 150/45

Cringe
Guest

Damn, now I’m thinking I low balled Avengers big time.

Darcy S McCallum
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises, $601M, $200M
2. The Avengers, $387M, $152M
3. The Amazing Spider-Man, $303M, $141M
4. Brave, $252M, $83M
5. Snow White & The Huntsman, $208m, $99m
6. Ice Age 4, $193M, $72M
7. Madagascar 3, $181M, $53M
8. Dark Shadows, $179M, $62M
9. Prometheus, $171M, $64M
10. Men in Black 3, $164M, $68m

Robert Reineke
Guest

1. The Dark Knight Rises, $430M, $180M
2. The Avengers, $360M, $150M
3. Brave, $220M, $65M
4. The Amazing Spider-Man, $210M, $85M
5. Ice Age 4, $195M, $73M
6. Madagascar 3, $190M, $68M
7. Prometheus, $185M, $65M
8. Snow White & The Huntsman, $175M, $70M
9. Ted, $160M, $65M
10. Men in Black 3, $155M, $65M

RAJO
Guest

1 – DARK KNIGHT RISES $522M, $146M
2 – AVENGERS $426M, $102M
3 – SPIDERMAN $368M, $187M
4 – MIB $314M, $120M
5 – BATTLESHIP $296M, $108M
6 – ROCK OF AGES $178M, $65M
7 – GI JOE $174M, $82M
8 – ICE AGE $155M, $87M
9 – THAT’S MY BOY $138M, $68M
10 – PIRANHA DDDDD $122M, $122M

Brittany
Guest

1.Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter 180/400
2.Piranha 3DD 150/350
3.Take This Waltz 140/280
4.Step Up Revolution 130/270
5.Katy Perry: Part of Me120/250
6.God Bless America 110/230
7.Magic Mike 100/210
8.Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection 90/200
9.The Dark Knight Rises 30/150
10.The Avengers 5.5/45

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

The only way the box office would end up like that is if this year truly was the coming of the apocalypse.

Matt
Guest

LEAVE BRITTANY ALONE

Brittany
Guest

We will see come August 17, Sean. Because after that I will be standing on the chest of RowThree, victorious!

MrRTJL
Guest

1) The Dark Knight Rises 170/465
2) The Avengers 150/380
3)

MrRTJL
Guest

whoops, sorry all:

1) The Dark Knight 170/465
2) The Avengers 150/380
3) The Amazing Spider-Man 110/270
4) Brave 70/220
5) Ice Age Continental Drift 45/185
6) Snow White and the Huntsman 60/178
7) Madagascar 3 55/176
8 ) Prometheus 65/163
9) Bourne Legacy 64/163
10) Dark Shadows 42/141

Christopher M.
Guest

ATTENTION EVERYONE: Stop Submitting your picks. Because I’m calling my shot right now! So in advance I want to thank all the little people that made this possible. And Matt and Matt for being great podcast host.

Almost forgot, I’ll take a Return of the Living Dead Blu-ray as my prize.

1. The Dark Knight Rises 170/450
2. The Avengers 155/385
3. Spider Man 125/300
4. Snow White 85/225
5. MIB3 70/220
6. GI Joe 66/220
7. Brave 65/210
8. Madagascar 60/200
9. Prometheus 50/185
10. Ice Age 40/150

GE Hale
Guest

I say:

1 The Avengers – 485/160
2 The Dark Knight Rises – 440/145
3 The Amazing Spider-Man – 290/85
4 Brave – 230/52
5 Men in Black 3 – 225/68
6 Prometheus – 220/67
7 Ice Age: Continental Drift – 180/37
8 Snow White and the Huntsman – 166/50
9 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted – 165/53
10 G.I. Joe: Retaliation – 160/52

The auto-tracking spreadsheet with the new rule changes is more-or-less up and running and I will post a link to it here shortly after the contest closes. Good luck all.

Matt Price
Guest

We’ll post a snapshot of the standings regularly on the rowthree app! Thanks again for setting this up, we really appreciate it.

MrRTJL
Guest

Skimming over peoples numbers, it seems we are predicting a BIG summer. I remember feeling the same last year but in the end seriously over estimated my predictions.

From the lists I would think the sure fire blockbusters are The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises and MAYBE The Amazing Spider-Man: but the rest of the list is a toss up: Brave could be great as Pixar is able to be but Cars 2 left a bad taste.

Further down the list we could have some films which we think will go nowhere but could go the way of Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Bourne and Total Recall I think are in that vein given they are remakes/reboots and conveniently fit into a late summer run with little coming out the fortnight after. Its a strange year where I would not be surprised is 70% of my picks are completely wrong. Anyone else as confident as I am :|?

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Total Gross / Opening Weekend

1. The Dark Knight Rises – 466 / 184
2. The Avengers – 398 / 170
3. The Amazing Spider-Man – 250 / 130
4. Men in Black 3 – 234 / 107
5. Brave – 207 / 62
6. Prometheus – 200 / 58
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift – 184 / 55
8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – 176 / 62
9. Madagascar: Europe’s Most Wanted – 175 / 60
10. The Bourne Legacy – 150 / 52

Ice Age 3’s box office numbers are deceiving. Yes, its opening weekend is 41m but it made 25m 2 days before (wednesday & thursday) A lot of you guys are lowballing its ow with 30s & 40s because of this.

@Matt Brown – You used amazeballs? Ugh, vomitorium! 😉

When I was going down this thread, reading people’s list, and finally got to Toro’s post, I was like “oh shit, here’s the champion” (was kinda like when Sub-Zero & Scorpion walk through that door in the first Mortal Kombat film, bad-ass!)

Ha ha, Brittany is the Dan/Jigglypuff/Yajirobe of this contest. Nice.

@Matthew Fabb – Looking forward to seeing your list.

I know this year is mine but I’m kinda rooting for Kurt.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Thanks, I’m still undecided on how things might play out on quite a number of things. I need to spend some time on BoxOfficeMojo looking up past performances and makes some final decisions. Also since I’m going to see a midnight screening of the Avengers, I likely won’t be posting my numbers at the very last minute like I’ve done many years before. I think I’ll be spending some time Wednesday night instead.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Oh yeah, honorary mention goes to Ted as this year’s sleeper comedy (will place somewhere between 11-13)

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Correction: “A lot of you guys are lowballing [Ice Age 4’s] ow with 30s & 40s because of this.”

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Here’s my list, which after over shooting most movies last year, I’ve pulled the numbers down. Although it seems more on the bottom half than the top.

1) Dark Knight Rises – $450 / $210
2) Avengers – $415 / $165
3) Amazing Spider-man – $295 / $175
4) Brave – $270 / $75
5) Snow White and the Huntsman – $190 / $60
6) Promethus – $180 / $50
7) MIB 3 – $165 / $52
8) Madagascar 3 – $160 / $55
9) Bourne Legacy – $155 / $50
10) G.I. Joe 2 – $140 / $50

There’s a comedy that is going to sneak up in there (What to Expect when you are Expecting? Ted? That’s My Boy? Seeking a Friend for the End of the World?) but I’m not sure what and by how much, so I’m just abandoning what I would likely get wrong.

Also guessing opening weekends is hard especially with these variable dates. It’s hard to use Box Office Mojo as a resource for that as their opening weekend data is just the weekend. You have to dig around a bit more get more information of how movies performed on other days.

Anyways, I feel like I won’t be doing any better than I did last year, some where in the middle of the ranking or lower.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Despite posting a day early, keeping with tradition I’m still the last one to submit my list. 🙂

That said, as Matthew Price mentioned, it’s too bad that Ky didn’t get in on the content. 🙁

MrRTJL
Guest

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3433&p=.htm

(the BOM predictive numbers)
DarkKnight3 – 500
Avengers -420
Spiderman3 – 300
Brave – 260
MiB3 – 175
Bourne4 – 160
GIJoe2 – 155
Alien0 – 145
Rock of Ages – 140
Madagasgar3 – 134

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Are there any other sites or magazines that publish box office predictions? Even if they don’t include weekend totals, it would be curious to list them in the spread sheet to see how they compare against the rest of us.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

At first glance, they seem comparable, but I’m betting Prometheus breaks out by its ties to Alien/Ridley Scott, and just the fact that the trailer is way more compelling than Super 8’s.

Matt Price
Guest

Aw man, where is Ky? Can’t believe she might miss this.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Fuck, just saw the new Spider-Man trailer and thinking I guessed way too low. And goddamn does that costume look fantastic(probably the best in any superhero movie)

Matthew Fabb
Guest

The Spider-Man trailer played in front of the Avengers midnight crowd and after cheering loudly for The Dark Knight Rises, the Amazing Spider-Man got one person giving it a slow clap. They seemed to be more into Brave or Frankenweenie than Amazing Spider-Man.

Cringe
Guest

We had the same response at my midnight screening of Avengers. But probably the coolest response was to the new Prometheus trailer where it was a mixture of clapping, gasp, and hot shits.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

That’s the geek midnight crowd though. Rabid to see Avengers, I can totally see them being snooty about another superhero movie(that isn’t DKR), especially a new Spidey flick with the stink of SM3 still lingering.

GE Hale
Guest

For those that want to follow the race in real time can find the auto-updater at this link:

http://bit.ly/SBO2012

This year, I did the initial seeding using the Row Three consensus of how things will finish this summer. That means that now, the highest scores are the ones closest to the Row Three average for all participants, but as the summer goes on, the real data will be used as it becomes available and this list will reflect the final score by the end of the contest in September. For the record, the Row Three collective thinks this the summer will shake out as follows:

1. The Dark Knight Rises – 473/177
2. The Avengers – 362/139
3. The Amazing Spider-Man – 263/121
4. Brave – 221/71
5. MIB 3 (in 3-D) – 171/70
6. Snow White and the Huntsman – 169/ 67
7. Prometheus – 166/59
8. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted – 161/57
9. Ice Age: Continental Drift – 150/54
10. Battleship – 138/88

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

That is awesome. Thank you, GE Hale.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Awesome! I would have actually loved that Eligable Movies list back when I was choosing rather than poking around various websites trying to find out when exactly movies were being released.

GE Hale
Guest

I just compiled the info from Box Office Mojo’s upcoming release lists. Perhaps for next year, I will put out the spreadsheet-in-progress before the contest closes.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I hate to ask for more, when you’ve already done such an amazing job. However, do you think you could add a tab that lists the points without the collective weighting against it? I’m curious how everyone stands with only that.

However, I imagine not much will be made out of it right now since only Avengers is the only movie really scoring high and it’s likely going to be so high that it will be out of everyone’s range and just count for where people put it in their listings.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

As someone usually labelled as a dissenter. I would like to point out that I’m 3rd closest (of 26) to being in the consensus.

Andrew James
Admin

I’ve updated the mobile app to include the basic running score and rank of all participants. Clear your mobile cache and it should appear at the bottom.

Updates sometimes take a little while to aggregate through the system, so it may be a few minutes for it to show up. I’ll update the list every 2-4 days.

If you are experiencing any problems with your mobile app, please let me know!

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

OH MY GOD! Just got back from The Avengers.

Y’know when we first saw the Superman Returns trailer and we were like “there has got to be more cool shit in this movie, they’re just hiding it” and then we saw it and there wasn’t.

And then The Avengers trailer came out and we were like “there has got to be more cool shit in this movie, they’ve gotta be hiding it” Turns out, THERE IS LOTS OF COOL SHIT!

Word of mouth is gonna be ginormous, and I kinda feel bad for Dark Shadows, even if it is counterprogramming.

Cringe
Guest

Completely agree. The most fun I had in theater all year not including Cabin in the Woods. Joss Whedon is batting 1000 in my book. Which is surprising since I dont like his television work.

Goon
Guest

The Avengers is simultaneously a very entertaining spectacle, and an offensively artless, safe, panderfest. I liked it, I’m going to end up buying it, but it’s the McDonalds of comic book movies.

Captain America, X-Men, the Spider-Man films, even Thor, have a directorial stamp. This is corporate car-commercial level filmmaking, but it gets the job done. The structure is superb, it is dense with humor and character highs, but hot damn if this aint a Mitt Romney speech in movie form.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

This film has too much heart and Whedon put so much of himself into this that calling it the McDonalds of comic book movies is maybe a tad hyperbolic.

Much like how Angel used Wolfram & Hart, I see it as Whedon using the big studios in order to give the fans something really fucking special. Dude is a champion.

Goon
Guest

I don’t think it’s at all hyperbolic.

Like Kevin Smith, his most financially successful project is now a property that doesn’t truly reflect his work.

Heart? Sure, but coasting off the heart you come in with carried over from movies that created these characters. It’s a fan film.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

I can’t agree with you. If you’ve seen his tv work and read his comic books, I think it’s clear that there is a correlation to this film, and that this film is very much Joss Whedon.

And I don’t think it coasted at all. It’s not like Whedon could just walk on set, call action, and simply get a great Avengers movie. This was one tricky-ass job and I think he handled it pretty damn well. You can’t tell me that if Brett Ratner or McG were at the helm they’d produce something of this quality.

Goon
Guest

I’ve seen a fair share of Whedon. I’m not a fan of his. I saw very little of him here, largely because he could not cast his own people.

I am an X-men 3 fan. Ratner gets shit on for being corporate, and he is. But he to some degree continued Singer’s visual style, and the X-men 3 plot had significantly more risks than Avengers does. X-Men 3 does not play it safe, and it pisses off comic nerds because of it. “Nooo, you cant kill these people!” Avengers makes X-Men 3 look like an indie film, it panders that hard.

But pandering is what Whedon does best, and he’s not even Chris Columbus when to comes to unique visual style.

But again, I liked Avengers. It’s fun. It’s corporate. It’s safe. It’s a panderfest. Calling it the be-all end-all of comic films is absolute lunacy. It’s not even top 10.

Goon
Guest

I’ve “removed myself from discussion” That’s lame, Matt. Thats…. objectively lame 😉

X-Men 3 and the Avengers… both were co-written by Zak Penn, and both show it. Also wrote the Incredible Hulk screenplay, which I enjoy more than most people. Maybe I’m a Zak Penn fan?

But yes, Ratner’s X-3 has more visual style than the Avengers. He wins that fight by default.

Goon
Guest

Any “you’ve removed yourself from discussion line”… why, that sounds an awful lot like Sam Jackson siccing fans on AO Scott’s middling but positive NY Times review before it had even hit theaters,

and a lot like Loki attacking the one dude who refuses to kneel.

Be Loki.

Goon
Guest

Hmm… maybe I’m not a Zak Penn fan exactly. Reading a lot of his stuff was muscled out of each of these projects.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

“X-Men 3 and the Avengers… both were co-written by Zak Penn, and both show it.”

Both show it? Apparently when Whedon started on Avengers, Whedon completely dropped Penn’s script and started from scratch. The only reason that he got a credit was because of the WGA screenwriting credit system. From what it sounded like from interviews, Whedon didn’t even read Penn’s script and just as a director he said he wanted to completely understand the reasoning why any small thing was happening and for that he had to write the script himself.

Perhaps the similarities you see in X-men 3 & Avengers is Penn’s script borrowing from Whedon’s Astonishing X-men comic. Unfortunately, despite using story ideas and I think if I remember correctly a few lines, it was a horrible adaption. Also unfortunately the WGA screenwriting credit system don’t include any of the comic book writers getting credit. Not just for Whedon, but I would have liked to seen Jack Kirby in the beginning credits of Avengers, rather than buried in the wall of end credits.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

See to me X-men 3 was the worst of the X-men movies (even Wolverine) and likely would have been better if FOX had let Matthew Vaughn take his time and fixed the script. I’m okay with comic movies being different from the source material, especially X-men that has been redone so many times. Many part of the Dark Phoenix saga comes off as a bit of cheesy 80’s, that it needed to be trimmed down and fixed up, but it doesn’t work. So much of what Singer built up in the 2 other movies was completely wasted. However, I blame FOX for pushing it ahead rather than Ratner who was just a hired gun, a clog in the machine.

That said, I’m not sure I would put Avengers as the top superhero movie (comics are too wide of a medium to lump them all together, that’s like saying movie XYZ is the best movie based on a book). Certainly in the top 10, but it’s too fresh for me to get perspective.

Still, I’m with TUM TUM TYRANUS that this was a movie that easily could have been completely messed up (once again X3 I see a prime example of this) with so many characters, it’s hard to find a good balance. Whedon realized that at the core this had to be a found family, dysfunctional family. Rather than them working as a team right away and going from one battle or another. This has been seen in a lot of Whedon’s work and it seems to me that his career was all leading up to this project.

Goon
Guest

Whedon had a difficult task but he pulled it off. That task was dividing up the screentime between these characters while also having to have an actual storyline.

The Avengers movie works because it really did put together an Iron Man, Cap, Thor and Hulk movie together without having to let them carry it alone, and because it finally pulls a trigger they never bothered to with the other movies, which are all very limited in scope because they were saving it for this. In his movie Thor is just saving a dimpy little town. in Hulk and Iron Man’s movies they are just battling a clone of themselves. Cap’s is better than all of these because it has the most personality visually (distanced from the modern era) that allowed it to have actual stakes. In order to make this Avengers movie they had to strip all the style and personality that was carrying the weight in these limited-scope single Avenger films.

But come on, the dysfunctional family stuff? Solved by how… quipping? They were never a family. They were dysfunctional, Sam Jackson lies to them, and then they work together, which at that point becomes like the Capcom video games where the Marvel heroes team up and toss each other around.

So yes, Whedon gets a pass mixed with applause. He knows how to divvy up time with an ensemble and have people play off each other. And he can write levity, and he knows how to pander and give the fanboys the fantasy booking they want. But have you seen the animated Ultimate Avengers films? They… both actually (they made 2) have the exact same structure and do these things too, and also have the alien horde attacking the city. The live action one just happens to be funnier, longer, and pops much more because the animation was barely above TV quality.

Whedon had a template, and he was lucky to have the baggage of established star characters who had their own full films to be fleshed out. He gets credit for adapting the Banner character to suit this ensemble. He gets credit for slotting Black Widow and Hawkeye in similar ways that the Ultimate Avengers movie did for Ant Man/Giant Man , Black Panther, and whoever that Avenger is who’s like… a hummingbird or something. The Black Widow scenes though have some annoying Whedonisms though. He just can’t help himself when he gets a woman in a catsuit. Stock Whedon, eye roll.

Anyways, still, I see this, and then I see comic movies made by Singer, Vaughan, Snyder, Leterrier, Branagh, Raimi, Burton, Lee, Nolan, etc.. Not so much Favreau obviously… These are filmmakers that for all their own faults brought something to the table visually, ownership, vision. If anything Whedon had to strip away vision to make this film. It looks like it was a job requirement to make this as blandly mainstream as possible. And that’s… really sad.

But you know, Whedon has the most apologetic fans in the world, so I’ll sit back and watch people trip over themselves to credit him for stuff that was handed to him on a platter.

Stray observations and nitpicks. Not spoilers really but I’ll throw up a tag:

SPOILERS
SPOILERS
SPOILERS

Tony Stark is annoying in the first chunk of this movie, severely overwritten.

Those aliens are worse than Storm Troopers.

A flying aircraft carrier is (at least appropriately shown to be) the stupidest idea ever.

The 2nd post credits scene owes David Gordon Green a massive check.

While I like Norton in Leterrier’s Hulk, and Ruffalo in this one… they would not fit in each other’s movies. Ruffalo is written like a supporting player here, with a personality that would not carry a film. And Norton’s Hulk has a weight that would be off putting in the Avengers film.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

SPOILERS
SPOILERS
SPOILERS

I will agree with you that the design of the aliens troops came off as boring to me. I think it could have been a lot better. Or they could have done something classic Marvel and gone with the Skrulls.

Ruffalo’s Banner is a bit different than Norton, but I think the fact that he tried to kill himself could explain it away. That said his transition from Hulk wanting to smash Black Widow & Thor, to just taking orders & working with the team happened too quickly. I would have liked to seen Loki taken control of Hulk as was done in I think one of the animated Avenger movies or tv shows.

I don’t know David Gordon Green, but the 2nd post-credits scene came across to me as classic Whedon. Also apparently they had just filmed it after the premiere in Hollywood a few weeks ago, which is why it’s in the North American release but not internationally.

Goon
Guest

While I’d pick on the alien design, I meant that they are as ineffective as Storm Troopers. They were not even as effective as Power Ranger Putty fighters.

Re DGG

SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS

At the end of Pineapple Express, after the big fight has happened, the crew, bloodied, dirty, scarred, all go for breakfast and talk about how awesome their adventure was, recapping the movie. It’s hilarious and at the time was very fresh. in Avengers it still works but I’d seen it already.

Cringe
Guest

Im just hoping The Avengers takes down the Dark Knight in total gross. Just because it might be one of the most overrated movies of all times besides Heath’s performance and cinematography that movie is very mediocre. And is plague with issues.

Nat Almirall
Guest

More on Goon’s side here with The Avengers — I think people are forgetting the first half hour to forty-five minutes of the film, which, at least to me, was very slow; and there were serious moments of lag in the middle. That said, I really liked the humor and final battle, but, again to me, it was good, but not great.

Jericho Slim
Guest

I liked Avengers as well (4/5), but lets not go overboard with the praise. It’s a good to very good superhero comic book movie, nothing more, in my opinion.

The big baddie and the assembly of the team, and the dysfunction of the team was done the only way it could have been done. The way its been done in comic book team-ups for decades. The back stories and motivations for all of the characters are decades old as well. Given this background, any competent storyteller could write a treatment for an Avengers movie in a few days.

So it falls upon the writer/director to create good dialogue, some poignant character moments, and have some great set pieces. I don’t think that this is really accomplished until the third act.

And the third act is textbook, but it is so good at doing its job that it works, even though you know that it’s being manipulative.

Jericho Slim
Guest

Put another way, I don’t think Andrew or Kurt – two non-fanboys – are going to be overly impressed with this movie if they go see it.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Isn’t that the Marvel/Disney formula: “Do the obvious, that’s what the CBM-faithful want.” Check the boxes to the inevitable, then tease that the next one will be better, over, and over again?

I’m not in a rush to see it. A couple weeks when the hubbub settles down, maybe.

Nat Almirall
Guest

To be fair, you’re basically outlining the general rules of screenwriting — it’s only the degrees of subtlety and surprise that make the difference.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I’ve heard from one friend who only saw Iron Man 1 and another who only saw Thor and both absolutely loved Avengers. So I think it can work with people who aren’t huge fans of what Marvel has been doing but still would enjoy that kind of movie.

Personally, I think the characters standing around and arguing is done well enough that I like those scenes as any of the action sequences.

Jericho Slim
Guest

I liked it, too , and I’m not a huge Marvel movie fan. I guess I should have said that it won’t appeal to two people that actively don’t like superhero movies.

I say this because The Avengers has a lot of superhero tropes mixed with a lot of “gathering a band of misfits” tropes. That’s why I thought the first two acts weren’t that interesting at all.

The third act works on its own. I could have been shown the third act by itself, and I would still have given the movie the same 4 out of 5.

Goon
Guest

I wish the third act of Transformers 3 was released on its own (because… um, it’s actually pretty good)

Matthew Fabb
Guest

The first cut of the movie was apparently over 3 hours long, Whedon felt it dragged too long and began cutting. There were a lot of what he felt were great little moments but they weren’t moving the story forward so out they went. So there should be plenty of extra material available for the DVD. Perhaps even a longer 3rd act.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

@Goon – The reason people were pissed at the character deaths in X3 is not the mere fact they killed them off, it’s because the way they got killed off was poorly executed. Comic fans don’t mind if you veer away from the source material, you just have to do it well (e.g. Christopher Nolan)

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Exactly, the way James Marsden’s cyclops died in X-3 was confusing and empty and artless in its ‘execution.’ Haphazard and lazy, hence offensive.

Goon
Guest

I don’t know. See, I had those deaths spoiled for me in advance of the movie, so I was watching for the execution, and it came off as pure monster heel booking, worked for me. Even more so with Professor X and the look he gave as it was happening, i thought that was great.

Regarding X3, I’ll just say this. The plot revolves around the cure, which has a zillion overtones and effects each character uniquely. They all have opinions on it, and it drives the action and makes certain consequences sting. From Rogue taking herself out of the equation to Magneto abandoning Mystique, etc. I dug it.

With the Avengers, I mean they’re coming together to fight this alien horde, and Loki’s motivation is…. freedom is dumb? And the good guys motivation is… aliens invading earth is bad. And the character infighting is pretty basic personality clash and little to do with disagreement over tactics or even much to do with the questionable role of SHIELD. The stakes in Avengers are huge but the motivations are so blah. And I think that matters.

Kurt
Guest

Interesting!

Goon
Guest

I think everyone assume you’ll hate The Avengers Kurt, but I really have no idea. For all i know you’re going to walk out with some theory it was all Nick Fury’s dream or something.

Goon
Guest

When I think about these comic heroes, I take into consideration the ideas around why they were created. In the case of the Avengers series, the comics were created as a placeholder team-up comic while they worked out the X-Men concept. The Avengers exist as an All-Star game, and to create an overlapping continuity between some of the main comics. All roads lead to Rome.

The Avengers movies, including this one, all reflect that, and that is an achievement. But I guess I was hoping when they got to this movie, within it there would be more reason for this team to exist, for there to be some theme accomplished by having them all there together, and I don’t think there is.

antho42
Guest

I love Goon. Every website needs a troll.

Goon
Guest

Once again I lay out a detailed argument, and you just call names.

Try harder.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Goon isn’t trolling.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

Do you even know the definition of troll?

David Brook
Admin

I think I loved The Avengers because it did stick to ‘the formula’ and pulled it off. I’m not usually a fan of superhero films because I don’t know of any others that have gone out and delivered the goods like this. Solid entertainment without any pretences is what I want from a blockbuster. If a popcorn film offers something more then that’s a bonus, yes, but if it doesn’t I can still be perfectly happy with the result. The original Star Wars films worked in the same way (or at least do now – on release there were other selling points). They didn’t rely on anything ‘deep’ to be considered special, they just knew how to work those raw ingredients and formula into something that works like gangbusters.

Yes The Avengers does nothing new and on a stylistic level is pretty bland, but it’s still finely crafted, especially in terms of writing, which is more than you can say for a lot of other modern blockbusters.

As for comparisons with the latest Batman films, give me The Avengers any day of the week. There may be some interesting themes and undertones in Nolan’s films, but they’re devoid of heart and soul and feel over-long and slow.

Cringe
Guest
TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

@Goon – That’s fair if you feel that way, it’s your opinion. But I don’t think it’s fair that because others didn’t feel those deaths were done right, you automatically call them fanboys that would’ve bitched regardless of execution.

Matthew Fabb – “…there seemed to be some Hollywood thinking that superhero movies needed to be dark & gritty like Chris Nolan’s Batman series to be really big & successful. ”

This opinion is a popular one among cinephiles but I never really bought into it. Since 2008, I can’t really think of a superhero film that emulates TDK and tries to be “dark”. Watchmen is the closest example but I’d argue it’s the film Zack Snyder would’ve made regardless of Nolan. To me, if anything, the movie that has had the biggest influence on the superhero genre is Iron Man.

Goon
Guest

Let me try to bring some detail to the ‘fanboy’ derision.

There’s a very loud segment of the Internet that has tried to claim that the concensus around X-Men 3, Spiderman 3, the Matrix sequels, Indy 4, and the Star Wars prequels, and more, as universally derided films.

on IMDB, X3 is a 6.8, Spidey 3 is a 6.3, Reloaded is a 7.1, Crystal Skull is a 6.4, Episode 3 is a 7.7, and so on. Some of those scores, I mean, yeah, nothing to go nuts about, but I can get annoyed by how everything gets sorted into “best thing ever” or “worst thing ever” by a set of people that come across, as well, Comic Book Guy-esque, “Worst Episode Ever” stereotypes.

There are a lot of people who like these movies the Internet has decided are bad, or who enjoy them while acknowledging the severe flaws, and people who enjoy the praised ones like X2 and the Avengers, etc, and will point out flaws.. Sometimes when you defend the former at all you get pointed out like a dumbass, and when you attack the latter at all you get singled out as a heretic. I wish there was more room to discuss these movies where people could be passionate without automatically writing people off.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

True, that no movie has followed that formula, but it takes a long time to get big superhero movies moving and off the ground.

I guess Marvel Studios was going ahead with it’s movies without any concern with Chris Nolan movies, but once again pointing to Superman, there were rumors that WB was considering making it more angrier and darker. I don’t know what influence Christopher Nolan had on the the new Superman, but it seemed that was one of the reasons to get Nolan involved.

With the failure of Green Lantern there has been a lot of finger pointing, but once again some of it I heard that perhaps it needed to be a bit darker. Also as I mentioned the new Spider-Man seems to be a bit more darker and filled with angst.

Jericho Slim
Guest

Was anybody else curious/surprised about Avengers’ 16:9 ratio? I’m thinking it was used because of wide-screen televisions and black bars. This thought had hit me a few months ago – the thought that more movies would use 16:9 because of tvs.

Why else would an “epic” story not use 2.35? Honest question, not rhetorical.

Matt Gamble
Guest

It was shot in 3D.

Brittany
Guest

It’s official 200 million opening weekend.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm

Now that marvel has a license to print money can we please get a Black Panther movie.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Yes, and get Chewitol Ejiofor to play.

Good job to Sean Patrick Kelly and Tal Aulbrook picking $200m for The Avengers opening weekend.

Brittany
Guest

That would be pretty good casting, and after seeing set pics of Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain I think Athony Mackie should get a shot. Dude bulked up.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

I would watch any superhero movie with Chiwetel Ejiofor in the lead. Somebody make this happen! That is all.

Nat Almirall
Guest

First we need the movie where Brian Cox, Brian Dennehy, Brian Keith (played by Wilford Brimley), and Rip Torn sit around and get drunk.

Brittany
Guest

He might be too old now but Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje could also be a badass Black Panther.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

$200M Opening Weekend. Holy Fuck! I was way off with $125M

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

I was right on the money. 🙂

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Just want to say I love this contest and this time of year. I used to play Fantasy Moguls(RIP) but just the interaction alone makes this contest a lot more fun. Thanks MAMO and Row Three!

Dave Nandes
Guest

I’m going to take seeding so high as a bad sign for my final placement.

Rick Vance
Guest

This may totally play into peoples numbers.

Prometheus gets its R
http://collider.com/prometheus-rating-rated-r/164532/

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Was afraid of this happening. I thought for sure Fox would opt for a PG13 theatrical release. Oh well, at least we get to see Ridley’s uncompromised version of the film on the big screen.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Yeah, my guess on Prometheus was based off a PG-13 rating. As it sounded a lot like FOX was going to cut it to reach a PG-13. Even Ridley Scott was saying that would happen in interviews and that the full version would be available for DVD.

But yeah, in the end I rather see the uncut version of the movie in the theatre than do better in this contest (which I still have a feeling I’m going to lose anyways).

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

With 207m actuals, looks like The Avengers OW bonus points are pretty much a wash. Sean Patrick Kelly and Tal Aulbrook now only get 1 bonus point instead of 10.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Comic book site Newsarama does some number crunching of how Avengers will do long term:
http://www.newsarama.com/film/the-avengers-box-office-total-could-be-staggering.html

Quick version:
If Avengers has legs as weak as Incredible Hulk or Iron Man 2 (in opening weekend versus total) Avengers will make $504 million domestically.
If Avengers has legs as strong somewhere between Iron Man 1 and the Dark Knight Returns, Avengers will make $680 million.

I imagine it will be somewhere between the two, but it looks like this movie will certainly clear $500 million and has a clear shot at Avengers. Personally, I think this will be the #1 movie of the summer and while Dark Knight Rises will make a boat load amount of money, it won’t make this much.

Kurt
Guest

Scary, but Avengers is creeping up on almost everyone’s BO guesses, and its only week 2. People seriously under-estimated how much this is going to make. Even my high-ball of $500, seems rather low, now.

Cringe
Guest

Especially when you take in account that Dark Shadows, Battleship, and The Dictator are all tracking a lot softer than expected. So it doesn’t really have any competition for three weeks till MIB 3 comes out.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

It’s funny how Battleship does okay overseas but will tank domestically. It was the right move though, to open first internationally. Still, this whole process of studios releasing films over there before North America reminds me of the handicap system in Mario Kart, rewarding the sucky racers with cooler items. 😉

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I wonder over seas how well they are aware of the game Battleship. As it almost seems like a license that actually hurts the movie, rather than helps it as the more familiar with the game, the more ridiculous the movie seems.

Also a battleship movie fighting off an alien invasion loses it’s appeal a bit after a movie with a flying battleship and superheroes fighting off an alien invasion. I think Battleship would have done better in April but could have been a bit better with better marketing. I think the latest trailer looks like a completely different and more interesting movie than the last 2 trailers. Was this part of the plan or did the marketing team realized the last 2 weren’t working and changed direction?

David Brook
Guest

We’re well aware of the game Battleships overseas – I really don’t think the game license is all that noticeable to the general public though. I imagine most people just think it’s a film about war at sea. I doubt they make the connection, because the idea of making a film about a board game like that is insane.

I think it did well over here (in the UK at least) because it didn’t really have much competition. If it had come out now The Avengers is in full swing it would tank I imagine.

Christopher M
Guest

It took The Dark Knight 6 months to reach a billion and only took The Avengers 19 days.

Cringe
Guest
Matthew Fabb
Guest

Without 3D bringing in extra revenue, I really think the Dark Knight Rises is out of the range of Avengers. Friday had a big drop because of midnight screenings being included in the previous Friday but Saturday had a drop of 38.1% and Sunday had a 46.8% drop. This movie has got legs and I think will easily pass $600 million and has a shot of surpassing Titanic’s $658 million domestic total.

As I pointed out earlier if it has drops similar to Iron Man 1, it will bring in around $680 million.

Cringe
Guest

I don’t know about 600m because once MIB3 and Snow White comes out in a few weeks I think it will take a big chunk out of Avengers business. Seeing as how they share similar audiences.

Matt Gamble
Guest

MIB is tracking for shit and is only a threat to take that weekend because its week 4 of release for Avengers. By that time, it will already be around $500 mill anyways. That weekend and the following are what will determine if it tops $600 mil domestic and it has a very solid shot at doing so.

Cringe
Guest

Here comes Gamble to ruin my argument with facts.

Son of a bitch.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Look at this Shang Tsung motherfucker right here. ; ) It’s comments like these where I wish you could just get off your throne and play. You can only rely on your boy, Goro(Kurt), for so long.

Kurt Halfyard
Admin

Your Mortal Kombat analogies have been noted. I’m processing on whether or not this is a complement or insult! 🙂

Rick Vance
Guest

Picturing Matt Gamble as Johnny Cage from that movie is making me laugh pretty hard.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

I’d be Scorpion of course. 😛

Goon
Guest

Gonna go out on a limb and suggest maybe everyone has Spider-Man too high. The ill will for it seems to be spreading. I actually liked the 2nd trailer somewhat, but the new one has dubstep, which is basically confessing to the world that they are desperate or that it sucks.

Goon
Guest

Also might speculate that Dark Knight WILL make as much money as the Avengers, and that together a few movies could suck the box office life out of everything else.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Last week Dark Shadows had the Speed Racer slot, this week Battleship gets the Prince Caspian slot(though it won’t do as well as Caspian). I’m thinking mid 30s.

@Kurt You know how, on the Cinecast, you sometimes over-analyze things. Well, Goro has 4 arms for reaching. 🙂

Goon
Guest

Took a look to make sure nobody put The Dictator on their list.

Good. It won’t, and doesn’t deserve,to make a dime.

Marcus
Guest

Really? I thought you would love it, the way it bashes the US.

Matthew Fabb
Guest

Deadline’s rough estimates based on Friday night’s tickets:
http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/dictator-off-to-slow-domestic-start-international-box-office-begins-stronger/

1. Marvel’s The Avengers (Disney) Week 3 [4,349 Runs] PG13
Friday $15.5M, Weekend $52.5M, Cume $454.5M

2. Battleship (Universal) NEW [3,690 Runs] PG13
Friday $9.5M, Weekend $26M

3. The Dictator (Paramount) NEW-Wed [3,008 Runs] R
Friday $5.5M, Weekend $16.0M, Cume $23.0M

4. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) NEW [3,021 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.4M, Weekend $12.0M

5. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,755 Runs] PG13
Friday $3.7M (-61%), Weekend $11.5M, Cume $49.6M

6. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 9 [2,064 Runs]
Friday $850K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $391.0M

7. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 3 [354 Runs] PG13
Friday $800K, Weekend $3M, Cume $8.7M

8. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 5 [1,722 Runs] PG13
Friday $800K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $85.6M

9. The Lucky One (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,055 Runs] PG13
Friday $650K, Weekend $1.8M, Cume $57.0M

10. Pirates! Band Of Misfits (Aardman/Sony) Week 4 [1,840 Runs] PG
Friday $450K, Weekend $1.4M, Cume $25.7M

Dark Shadows is going down in flames. Battleship looks like it’s bombing. What To Expect When You’re Expecting is not the breakout comedy hit that Matthew Price was expecting.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Nice! 9 people put Battleship on their lists including current champ, Toro, and another strong player, GE Hale. Also nice, Dark Shadows looking like it’ll only gross around 75m total, which will put it much further away from the top 10.

“What To Expect When You’re Expecting is not the breakout comedy hit that Matthew Price was expecting.”

I like what you did there.

Next week is MIB3 and my possible first stumble of the contest. I have it at 107m (4-day weekend) and 234m total. Come on Big Willy Style!

GE Hale
Guest

What? I am pretty sure I left that stinker off my list although I think it was 11 or 12th when I compiled my picks. That now looks to be quite fortuitous. Right now, it is Snow White that I am most unsure of and that I might have overbid on Spiderman and MIB.

TUM TUM TYRANUS
Guest

Oh my bad. I did Ctrl F on “Battleship” and it was tenth in the “Row 3 Collective” that you posted.

Chris
Guest

Gamble, what’s MIB3 tracking at?

Matthew Fabb
Guest

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/14/entertainment/la-et-men-in-black-20120514

“Despite all of the film’s obstacles, Sony executives believe they have a hit on their hands. Pre-release “tracking” surveys indicate that moviegoers’ interest in “Men in Black 3” is solid if not spectacular in the United States, and is through the roof across Europe and in such fast-growing markets as Russia and Brazil. Today, overseas ticket sales for big 3-D Hollywood movies frequently outsize their take at the North American box office. And Smith is a proven box-office draw around the world.

Still, with combined production and worldwide marketing and distribution costs of close to $375 million, “Men in Black 3″ needs to be a huge hit to turn a profit. Staying out of the red is further complicated because the big-name talent involved, which includes executive producer Steven Spielberg, will get a share of the proceeds.”

Earlier in the article, it mentions that the movie began filming before the script was finished. There were a lot of re-writes and changes which caused the price tag to go up. Doesn’t sound like it will result in an interesting movie.

Chris
Guest

Thanks. It also seems like it’s getting decent reviews, saying it’s more in the vein of the first MIB.

Matt Gamble
Guest

I wouldn’t expect that to hold. The movie has been pretty widely known to have had multiple productions issues, the most obvious of which was the lack of a script when production started.

Cringe
Guest

I don’t think the average movie goer cares about production problems or for that fact even know what that means. it makes for great blog posts on movie websites but only a small amount of people care about it.

Plus, let’s remember it is a big budget Will Smith movie so all bets are off.

Sean Patrick Kelly
Guest

Well, if anything, Men in Black III will be a test of Will Smith’s box office clout. He is coming out of a (well deserved) four year hiatus for this film and we’ll see if he can still draw at crowd (at 43 years old, he is starting to get a little ripe).

Matthew Fabb
Guest

I had to double check to make sure that was right, but yup, it’s been 4 years since his last movie.

Yeah, no one pays attention to production issues, it’s just we’re guessing that starting a film without a proper script might lead to a bad movie and bad word of mouth. It’s quite possible that they manage to fix the scripts issues and the movie is not as bad as expected.

Matt Gamble
Guest

Strike GI Joe off your list, just got bumped to March of ’13 for a 3-D release.

GE Hale
Guest
Matthew Fabb
Guest

Hmmm… I guess there aren’t any special rules dealing with what happens when an legible summer of 2012 movie becomes illegible, as I don’t believe this has happened before.

I see I picked GI Joe 2 for my #10 and if I remember correctly I had a few different movies at the bottom. I think it came down to Ice Age 4 or GI Joe 2 and I went with GI Joe.

Cinge
Guest

Man, GI Joe must have complete garbage to remove it with five weeks remaining. I’m in total shock that the director of Step Up and Justin Bieber doc made a bad movie.

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