In which we put our stakes in the ground and say we know who will win at next week’s Oscars. Spoiler: it’s The Artist. Or is it?
Mamo #241: How To Win Your Oscar Pool in 24 Simple Moves [ 40:14 | 18.45 MB ] Play Now | Play in PopupTo download this episode, use this URL: http://rowthree.com/audio/mamo/mamo241.mp3
Last year I won an online Oscar pool I participate in every year. Won $50 in Amazon credit (which I used to purchase The King’s Speech and Black Swan).
Anyways, I thought I would comment on the shorts, which I saw at the Lightbox. I think Raju has the best chance at winning live action, even though it was not my personal favorite. Animated will probably to to the flying books short, which I thought was breathtaking (BTW there are 2 NFB nominees)
Sorry. Brad Pitt is not really a giant giant movie star?
Do you mean in terms of sheer box office numbers? Then maybe (though I can think of at least three movies in which he was comfortably the lead that grossed over $100 million at the box office domestic), but he’s one of the biggest movie stars I can think of. I mean outside of Clooney or maybe Tom Hanks, when you ask someone who is the biggest movie star right now, Brad Pitt has got to be on that very short list right now.
Generally when we refer to Brad Pitt not being a movie star we’re talking about his ability to open a movie in North America, not his lifestyle or public perception. It’s different all over the world, but around here, Pitt’s presence in a film does not guarantee that film’s success – neither does Clooney’s or even Hanks’ at this point, for that matter. Moviestars, in terms of guys who can open a movie, are more along the line of Will Smith, Tom Cruise, etc.
Ah yes, that makes sense. And definitely true. And as far as an actor’s career goes, I say Amen to that! I mean if an actor is guaranteed that his film is going to draw a $100+ million dollar box office just because he/she is in it, I would say chances are they’re not doing very interesting or challenging stuff. So I’m happy the Pitts and Clooneys of this world say bullocks to making themselves billionaires and are just as likely to go the Jesse James/Tree of Life/Solaris/Good Night Good Luck/Syriana route. Then turn around and do Intolerable Cruelty or Mr. and Mrs. Smith.
I love it when actors can pull that off and do it well everytime. Probably why I like Soderbergh so much. He does the same thing, but from behind the camera.
Certainly a strange sounding MAMO with no background sounds.
I’ll be in Costa Rica for a friends’ wedding during the Oscars and so I’ll miss the whole thing. Also I don’t think I’ve cared less about the Oscars than I have this year. Likely the fact that I’ve seen so few of the movies. Even movies that I really wanted to see like Hugo, Tree Of Life, Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy, I never found the time to go see and will have to catch on DVD (unless they extend or re-release these movies after an Oscar win).
I think the only category that I give a damn about is documentary, to see if Paradise Lost 3 wins. The fact that this series of movies, lead to the release of three convicted men is pretty huge.
In Paradise Lost 3, Damien Echols, the member of the West Memphis Three who was on death row, says that if it wasn’t for the first movie he quite likely would be dead. As it’s the first movie that put a huge spotlight on the case and raised funding for the West Memphis three to appeal their cases and do things like DNA research to help prove their innocence. I think Echols is right and without that first movie the State of Arkansas would have quite likely already killed Echols by lethal injection a few years ago.
A previous MAMO, the 2 Matt’s were talking about how quite rare for a documentary to have such an impact to change the public opinion. These movies did that and changed future events because of them. The Paradise Lost series I think raises the bar on what a documentary movie can do.
So I definitely think it deserves to win and that people in the documentary industry voting for these movies are likely going to vote for it. Of course it’s the Oscars and so I won’t be surprised if something else will win despite the fact that I think it’s a no-brainer for Paradise Lost 3.
Paradise Lost 3 is definitely my pick.
I think Paradise Lost 3 is a favourite to win if only because of the support from the artist community for the WM3 – and it’s a fascinating turn of events particularly for those who have been following the story through the previous 2 films. That said, there’s some amazing stuff going on in HELL AND BACK AGAIN. The front line footage alone is spectacular but the filmmaker makes some interesting choices with the editing. It’s very manipulative but it works like something fierce. I couldn’t help but think that the director was heavy handed in most of the edits but the picture works.
Yeah, my partner, who works in documentary, swears by HELL AND BACK AGAIN. Doesn’t mean it’ll win of course, but she calls it the best of the nominees.
And yes, strange sense of surrealism when the show starts and I can’t hear spoons clinking and table chatter immediately.
Next time we are going to make Max Price play his guitar quietly in the background.
The Descendants probably will win for Adapted Screenplay, considering that it just won the WGA Award for the same (Midnight in Paris was the winner for Original Screenplay).
I just decided on my Oscar picks (though I won’t post them in my blog until Sunday morning). I took some of the suggestions in this podcast into consideration, however many are based purely on personal opinion and/or buzz (or, in the case of documentary shorts, IMDB rating).
On a related note, even though I thought that my results from last year (18 out of 24) was one of my best (and indeed I won an online Oscar pool with that number), I was looking at Oscar predictions I made in Livejournal in 2004 (before I started my movie-centric blog) and saw that I got a better result that year (21 out of 24).
I wonder what I will get this year?
I saw all the Oscar animated and live action shorts this weekend and I’m not sure the experience made me any more able to pick the winners than if I had guessed
They are all pretty different from each other and it’s not exactly easy to guess which way the voters go traditionally or whatever.
All i know is two in live action are way more like a regular film two others which are quick well-made larks, and one is just a weirdo foreign film.
As for animated, only Flying Books feels like it has an Oscar hook/baitiness to it. Wild Life has the most innovative and interesting animation style but its also the least interesting film storywise.
Here’s the link to the Substream’s Oscar contest, mentioned in this episode:
http://www.thesubstream.com/html-thesubstream039s-2012-oscar-pool-contest.html
Solid prize bag there.
Dudes, dudes, dudes … pretty disappointing. Some good insights, but basing your picks on Costume Design, amongst others, on the basis that that category is only voted on by the costumers branch is patently incorrect. That’s how the NOMINATIONS are arrived at. But for most categories, the entirety of the Academy, nearly 6,000 members, is allowed to vote for the final Oscar. The only exceptions are for the short films, documentaries and foreign film. Those nominations all have to be seen theatrically, so they’re seen by a significantly smaller portion of the Academy. And you correctly note that. But Costume, Editing, Visual Effects, all the technical categories – those are all voted on by the entire Academy and all those are blatantly stated in the Academy rules as “Final voting for the ______ award shall be restricted to active and life Academy members.”
OK, this episode is positively surreal with its damn-near silent ‘room-noise’
Just watched Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close… Christopher Plummer has it in the bag. Unless Sydow pulls a Judi Dench there is no way. Oh, and the film is bad, in case anyone was still curious.