The 200th episode of Mamo! We kick off the summer box office season with our look at what will – and won’t – make money in the summer of 2011, including some picks for #1 from some very special guest stars. Plus: Thor! Cap! Green Lantern! Jack Sparrow! Harry Potter! Optimus Prime! The Smurfs! It’s the biggest Mamo ever!
To download this episode, use this URL: http://rowthree.com/audio/mamo/mamo200.mp3
BOX OFFICE CONTEST: ENTRIES ARE NOW CLOSED
Make your predictions of the top ten domestic grosses for the summer of 2011 in the comment section for your chance to win a DVD of your choice (max value $30). You have until Midnight, Thursday May 5th to submit your choices, and please make sure to include your email address. Affiliates of Row Three are disqualified from the contest, but may still play along for bragging rights. The Summer ends, according to our tabulations, six weeks after the last film picked by someone, but roughly sometime in September, at which time a winner will be announced.
A list of films coming out this summer can be found here. “Summer” starts with the release of Thor and ends with the release of Final Destination 5. (UPDATE: As the release date of Final Destination 5 has been moved, the release window now closes with Our Idiot Brother.)
The nitty gritty of the tabulation is as follows:
A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.
B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.
C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.
D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.
E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross.
Good Luck!
Here’s my top ten(grosses in millions)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon $425
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II $375
Cowboys & Aliens $340
Kung Fu Panda 2 $310
Pirates 4 $275
Thor $260
Super 8 $250
Cars 2 $225
Captain America $200
Rise of the planet of the Apes $175
Yeah, I know.
Great episode guys! The beginning is awesome, although it did freak me out at first, thinking I was having some sort of audio problem.
As someone who’s won this contest twice, I’ll give the following 2 tips (although I still think it’s luck more than anything). Use BoxOfficeMojo.com to look up the previous films for sequels, look up similar movies, look up how actors have done in certain movies, etc. Also try to look beyond what you & your group of friends think they want to see. Because if my group of friends represented the general public, Scott Pilgrim would have made over $300 million last summer. People often get caught up with what is being discussed among their friends or even on Twitter (once again Scott Pilgrim was HUGE on Twitter) or on any niche website.
I still don’t think I really know what I’m doing, but I’m pretty confident that that those 2 tips are good advice.
Oh right, my picks! Spoiler warning:
1. Transformers 3 – $360M
2. Harry Potter 7.2 – $310M
3. Pirates 4 – $301M
4. Cars 2 – $275M
5. Panda 2 – $250M
6. Green Lantern – $215M
7. Thor – $210M
8. Hangover 2 – $190M
9. Captain America – $179M
10. Cowboys & Aliens – $170M
Awesome episode, epic opening, & great analysis which is to be expected from MAMO.
Just a couple other points
- Matt Fabb being the only listener who picked Dark of the Moon really made me regret not leaving a message. I thought for sure more people would pick it. It’s the obvious choice and now Matt Fab seems all bad-ass & shit. I hate that. Matt Fabb, I don’t know you and I’m sure you’re a good guy but if you win 3 times in row, that would bug me soooo much. You got a bullseye on you’re back this time around.
- Kudos on using Azkaban’s end credits music. I LOVE that score and think it’s one of the most under-rated of John Williams body of work.
- Kudos on using that specific musical piece from Transformers. I would’ve used the more popular (and cooler) Scorponok theme ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5XPRF6n72s&playnext=1&list=PL526373251977778B ) but the one you chose works way better as it matched the triumphant nature of the episode. Good choice.
- Matt Price’s reason for Cars 2 not doing as well as we all think was pretty fucking sound. Almost changed my mind. Almost…
- Bravo to Matt Price for having some oddball, longshot picks in his top 10. Rise of the Planet of the Apes? Cowboys & Aliens at #3? BALLSY!
- Speaking of Cowboy & Aliens, check out this trailer for Oblivion(1994) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5buqVnYiswA
- My top 10 is gonna be more similar (well, at least the top 5) to Matt Brown’s. Solid, pragmatic picks right there.
- My one tiny, tiny nitpick is not using “Molossus” as your closer. If you have to go out on one Batman Begins theme to harken back to episode 1, you go with Molossus. Again, it would’ve fit the whole epic nature of this episode. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84QcMjcH2cs#t=39s
You wanna school me on Molossus? YOU want to school ME on Molossus?!
Vespertilio was always my first choice. The second choice for the closing was not Molossus either, but Corynorhinus – I was either going to go with the opening cadence of Batman Begins, or the closing. The track from the Batmobile chase was never in serious contention.
Congrats on hitting 200 episodes guys!
Here is my guess for the top ten:
1. Potter 7.2 – $340M
2. Cars 2 – $310M
3. Transformers 3 – $300M
4. Pirates 4 – $289M
5. Panda 2 – $255M
6. Captain America – $240M
7. Super 8 – $200M
8. Green Lantern – $179M
9. Hangover 2 – $160M
10. Thor – $150M
(Also Tum Tum, in case this wasn’t apparent, all of your comments on my choices of music pretty much made my week. Score Geek high-five!)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon 375,000,000
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two in 3D) 350,000,000
The Hangover Part II 250,000,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) 220,000,000
Cars 2 200,000,000
X-Men: First Class 180,000,000
Kung Fu Panda 2 170,000,000
Green Lantern (in 3D) 160,000,000
Captain America: The First Avenger 150,000,000
Cowboys & Aliens 130,000,000
Nice!
Though, I still disagree with you. Molossus would’ve played better. ; P
I would even argue Molossus is Batman’s theme. In the movie, during the “I’m Batman” scene, they riff on it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4qgTk8Vfyc . And they use it during the Batmobile chase because that’s the moment when Bruce is finally full-on Batman. He did the training, got the costume, played with the gadgets, all that was left, at that point, was the Batmobile.
But admittedly I’m not as versed with the Batman Begins score as you are, so I could be wrong.
I hear what you’re saying. Actually to hear the composers talk about it, we’re both wrong – they say that Batman’s true theme only turns up at the tail end of Corynorhinus (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-wIg90lagk, timecodes 4:39 to the end). I guess I prefer the “motif” from Vespertilio over any true melody elsewhere in the score.
Oh, that makes so much sense because the part that I like in Molossus [0:40-1:00] is riffing on that moment in Corynorhinus and not the other way around, which I always thought. No wonder I was confused. Thanks for the clear up!
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 = $410m
2. Transformers: Darkside of the Moon – $395M
3. Pirates of the Carribbean: On Stranger Tides – $375M
4. X-Men: First Class – $345M
5. Cars 2 – $310M
6. Kung-Fu Panda 2 – $300M
7. Thor – $285M
8. Captain America – $275M
9. Green Lantern – $215M
10. Hangover Part 2 – $195M
Price, Cowboys & Aliens at three? If Wild Wild West and Jonah Hex taught us anything its that society does not like their westerns mix with other genres.
Super Congrats on #200 guys. One of the longest Podcast on the web in terms of time-doing it.
@Chris. I would say for sure they don’t like it when the western part super sucks like in those two examples. I think society’ll be just fine if the movie comes together like it looks like it will. That is some high stakes emotional ground they seem to be covering, and True Grit proves that people won’t just pass a western over automatically anymore. I’m sticking to my guns, as it were. Looking forward to your picks.
I should have added to my bit, I think Harry Potter will be huge… but when you have “Part Two” built right into the title, as certain percentage of drop in movie goers will read the title and pass as they might have not seen the “Part One” movie. I know my mom & aunt who go to the movies every Tuesday aren’t going as they missed the first film and don’t want to be confused.
1. Transformers 3 – $420M
2. Harry Potter 7.2 – $330M
3. Pirates 4 – $275M
4. Cars 2 – $270M
5. Panda 2 – $225M
6. Thor – $225M
7. Captain America – $210M
8. Hangover 2 – $190M
9. Super 8 – $180M
10. Green Lantern – $170M
I want to thank Matthew Brown and Matthew Price for inventing podcasts, and on top of that, if that weren’t enough, sticking with one particular podcast where food and movies converge that has been entertaining from day 1.
I discovered you guys early on, hearing Matt B on Blog-TO and then I came aboard the year you guys faked being angry at one another over Happy Feet (not convincing in the least) and really, I am a huge fan. Happy 200th episode!
As for picks, I did so embarrassingly bad last year after an inflated ego the year before coming up near the top that I need to sit down and really think this shit out. I may wait right up to the last day, and pull a The Price is Right, and add a dollar onto everything Matt Fabb picks. Will see.
Generally though, I think Cowboys vs Aliens will be the surprise tank, and Super 8 will make the ten.
Was it over Happy Feet? You’re right, we coulda done better than that.
1. Harry Potter 2 $360M
2. Transformers 3 $310M
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $305M
4. Captain America $280M
5. Pirates 4 $250 M
6. Green Lantern #245M
7. Thor #230M
8. Cars 2 $220M
9. Super 8 $180M
10. Cowboys & Aliens $175M
of course above I meant Harry Potter 7.2
I don’t want to swing the entries one way or the other but anyone confused about what we were saying re: Transformers should look at this:
http://downloads.comingsoon.net/tf3july1.jpg
You think we coulda done better than happy feet?!? Well, that is IT!!! It’s over, you BASTARD!
FINE!!
[footsteps receding]
[slams door]
[disconcerting silence]
I don’t know, that Happy Feet “fight” was pretty convincing. I mean, I’ve seen friends get into heated arguments over the most pointless things in film, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Question – Is there any chance Fast Five’s 2nd weekend steals some of the thunder from Thor’s opening?
I know Fast & Furious opened to 70m and then only made like 20m on its 2nd weekend. But Fast Five has a date closer to the summer season and if it’s actually good, I can see it having some staying power.
It’s highly unlikely but maybe…
Maybe aint the half of it. If Fast Five takes down over $150 mil in may, which is entirely possible, than next year we might have to start the contest a week earlier depending on what gets released at the end of April. Summer used to start May 23, not May 1.
1. Transformers 3 $390 mil
2. Super 8 $310 mil
3. Harry Potter 7.2 $308 mil
4. Cars 2 $300 mil
5. Panda 2 $250 mil
6. Thor $220 mil
7. Pirates 4 $200 mil
8. Captain America $186 mil
9. Smurfs $180 mil
10. Cowboys vs Aliens $175 mil
SO my big bets are Super 8 is the Inception of this year, The Smurfs outperforms Cowboys vs Aliens, and Thor is the big comic book movie of the summer.
Super 8 comes out swinging in Rot’s picks! Wow!
That is major balls, my friend. Respect.
I am all in… my considerable reputation is on the line. If I am wrong it will be excused by fatigue (my kid has had his first cold and sleep is now a rumor). If I am right, it is that I can see dimensions you haven’t even considered.
Ok… My picks for this year are:
1. Transformers 3: Dark of the Moon $375
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly… $340
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On… $240
4. Cars 2 $230
5. The Hangover Part II $220
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 $215
7. X-Men: First Class $210
8. Cowboys and Aliens $180
9. Captain America: The First Avenger $175
10. Thor $170
I will revamp and release a link to the auto-tabulator once all picks are in and the contest is closed.
a huge thank you to GE for stepping up with the automatic tabulator once again this year. It really makes the whole thing a ton more fun and I’d encourage everyone to bookmark it once it’s online.
Harry Potter 7b $360
Cars 2 $320
Transformers 3 $315
Kung Fu Panda 2 $290
Winnie The Pooh $285
Pirates 4 $275
Super 8 $225
The Hangover II $215
Captain America $200
X-Men Prequel $175
–below the line–
Cowboys & Aliens $145
Thor $140
Fast 5 $125
Rise of the Apes $125
Smurfs $120
Green Lantern $100
Conan $85
Final Destination 5 $80
Spy Kids 4: $60
Kurt, I think your below the line estimate seem more realistic then most of us. I’m giving Green Lantern the benefit of a doubt because its a CBM, but it will probably tank hard.
Don’t want to rain on Kurt’s parade but if Green Lantern actually makes less money out of the gate than Batman & Robin, I will *literally* eat my hat, and you can film it and make a sequel to Werner Herzog Eats His Shoe.
Well, if Green Lantern makes more than my total $100M on the opening weekend (stranger things have happened) ….well…I’ll treat you to dinner at Caplansky’s.
Ha! I think we’re both safe.
Super 8 being a top 5 pick is a surprisingly safe bet.
Green Lantern’s hopes rest on its second trailer. If it sticks with the goofy vibe of the first its screwed, if it keeps up the sci-fi epic take from the leaked footage then it stands a chance of doing well.
Am I the only person that interested in Captain America’s foreign box office? I think that it is going to bomb.
My Predictions:
1. Transformers 3: Dark of the Moon $400
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On… 350
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly… $310
4 Kunf Fu Panda 2 290
5. Cars 2 270
6. Winnie the Poh 225
7.The Hangover 220
8. X men Prequel 180
9. Super 8 170
10. Fast and Furious 150
Whinnie the Poo and Fast and Furious 5 are already out so don’t count I think Antho?
And yeah I think the fact that it’s called ‘Captain America’ will put off a lot of international film-goers – there’s not a lot of love for American patriotism elsewhere in the world, even if they’re aware of the comics. Unless people think it’s a sequel to Team America
It’ll still do pretty well though with all the publicity it’s getting and the trailer does make it look fairly decent.
Indeed, Furiously Fast 5 opens before the contest closes (this weekend I believe) which makes it an ineligible selection Antho. Winnie the Pooh opens in July so it is on the table.
I think the problem is you’re saying they “called it” captain america, like there was some other choice. That’s the character’s name; they didn’t invent him for the movie. What should they have called it? Besides, in Asia it’ll be translated as “Mighty Shield Skinny Man” and do bang up business.
GE Hale: Winnie the Pooh in July? Why did us Brits get a Disney release so early? It’s been out a couple of weeks already. I guess the books are British, but it’s still surprising.
Matthew: I didn’t mean it like that, I rushed my comment this morning so it probably came out wrong. I’m not saying they should rename the movie, that would be crazy. I just mean that the fact that the character/film/whatever has that name is going to reduce it’s chances of being a massive hit overseas. There’s nothing they can or should do about it, it’s just a thought. I’m sure it’ll still make a fair amount of money around the world though. It’ll just be a harder sell.
Actually I believe the plan is for Captain America to go out as just “The First Avenger” in some of the more America-averse territories (like, say, the Mid East).
Hey guys, big CONGRATS on 200 episodes!! Your opening score raises my hair on end every time. Still probably my most inspiring score I know of. That was sweet.
And this will be the weirdest thing I’ll probably say this year, but you guys may’ve inadvertently convinced me to see Transformers 3. I had no desire/plans to see it, but the way you described it in the show is right on and I’ll probably just figure out a way to screen hop to see “a spectacle.” Because you’re right – some of the stuff in there is (almost) worth it just for the sheer magnitude and scale of the experience. Even if in hindsight, everyone looks back and says, “that was pretty bad.”
Also, to clarify on contest rules, the eligibility period listed above (Thor through Final Destination 5) applies to North American release dates only. GE Hale’s comment is correct re: Fast Five and Winnie the Pooh.
My Predictions:
1. Transformers 3: Dark of the Moon $400
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On… 350
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly… $310
4 Kunf Fu Panda 2 290
5. Cars 2 270
6. Winnie the Poh 225
7.The Hangover 220
8. X men Prequel 200
9. Captain America 190
10. Super 8 160
a bit of desperation in the Green Lantern camp? Perhaps a smart move not to include it on my list.
http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-gets-9-million-to-fix-special-effects?ns_campaign=news&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=totalfilm&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0
I enjoyed the trailer for Transformers 3 that started off as some kind of moon landing conspiracy movie… that they even got me a bit interested, someone who really loathes the franchise, that tells me maybe they can make an even bigger go of the box office this time around.
On a certain level I think that Bay, while a moron in the field of human emotion, is still providing something that cinema has been giving to audiences since the great train robbery fired its gun directly at the audience. There’s a tradition of pure kinetic thrill that I don’t think anyone does as well as him, no matter how dumb the surrounding movie might be.
My predictions:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $400
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $330
3. Super 8 – $310
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $300
5. Cars 2 – $250
6. Captain America: The First Avenger – $240
7. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $220
8. The Hangover Part II – $210
9. X-Men: First Class – $200
10. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $190
@Rot: Desperation? Maybe, maybe not. From the beginning of this project the biggest challenge GL faces is one of tone. If the bigwigs think the tone is not being served by the current design of the suit/mask, they are absolutely making the right move by improving it.
@Andrew: Thanks!!
@Matty Price: GET OFF MY LAWN
Personally, I get more kinetic thrill out of cause and effect, than ‘splosions and volume. Even the Great Train Robbery requires that you recognize a gun being pointed at you and someone about to pull the trigger.
Michael Bay is all camera filters and spinning movement and stuff dropping from the sky.
Personal preference this year is for the musical/long-take style of HANNA.
CGI and compositing eye-candy have no place for me unless that film is called SPEED RACER.
I just rewatched The Rock, and while I think that is probably Michael Bay’s best film, it is still pretty terrible. The action sequences are not fun, anymore than car commercials are exciting, it is all posturing of the cool without being cool.
also there is ZERO growth of Bay as a director. His movies are all the same.
I never understood the fondness for The Rock. Bay’s best film (IMHO) is Transformers 2. Why? Because it’s the most Baytastic. The Apotheosis of Baydom. The Michaeldammerung with a side of Baypocalypse.
Same experience here, we watched THE ROCK a couple years ago, and while it may be one of the better Bays (My preference, oddly enough is THE ISLAND), it’s not that great.
The Rock is a terrible, horrible, no good very bad movie.
The Rock is a horrible film. There’s nothing redeeming about this film.
To complicate matters further, Final Destination 5 just got moved up by 2 weeks. So let’s make the new “summer” window Thor through Our Idiot Brother. That has a nice ring to it.
Et voila. I am ready to fail miserably, again.
Potter 7.2 ($390M)
Transformers 3 ($380M)
Pirates 4 ($340M)
Panda 2 ($260M)
Thor ($230M)
Cars 2 ($210M)
Cowboys & Aliens ($200M)
Hangover 2 ($180M)
Super 8 ($175M)
Captain America ($170M)
Uh… we’re gonna need a bigger box office.
http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/paramount/transformersdarkofthemoon/
Hot damn. I need to revise my picks after watching that trailer. Whoa.
Really folks? That trailer is distinctly underwhelming. More platitudes from Optimus, more dirty-sweaty LeBeouf showing “Optimus!” while carnage falls around him,” more military antics. As usual, nothing really makes sense, including the Moon stuff. At least they dropped the ‘hero quest/adventure’ shtick of the 2nd one, but destroying a major city on camera in a Blockbuster these days is pretty boring.
I’ma bust out an old favourite, a phrase I like so much I got it on a t-shirt, a simple series of five words that should be on every coffee mug in the world:
KURT YOU’RE A CRAZY PERSON
I have to agree, that trailer looks pretty goddamn awesome. Though I think Bay’s friend’s always make a good trailer and then the movie is shit. Still, I’ll be seeing this.
It’s in 2D right?
It’d better have some sort of 2D version. I think Bay’s frantic action in 3D will make my brain explode.
I’m with Andrew in thinking that it’s very easy to make an awesome trailer from a Transformers movie, but the film will probably still be shit.
Mike Rot: “I may wait right up to the last day, and pull a The Price is Right, and add a dollar onto everything Matt Fabb picks. Will see.”
LOL! In the past I’ve put my estimates literally with minutes to go. Next week is so busy, I think it might come down to that again. So prepare to move fast just before midnight if it comes down to that.
Also it assumes, that I will over estimate everything, if I underestimate enough movies, then I beat ya!
Michael Bay still looks like he can’t direct an action scene to save his life. Everything is blurring and moving so fast that you can’t make out anything. The first trailer actually got even me interested, then I saw the SuperBowl bit and was reminded how it was going to be worst than Trump’s comb over! However, as I said in my clip for this episode, I completely understand that I’m one of the few people who think that and this movie is going to make huge, giant gobs of money.
Fast Five will definitely make more than Green Lantern. Take it to the bank.
Fast Five banked. Marvel is 3 for 3, Thor already made 93 Mil overseas.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/05/box-office-fast-five-prom-hoodwinked-too-hood-vs-evil.html
Kurt’s guess – Fast 5 $125 (TOTAL for entire run)
Thus far Fast 5 $83 (1st weekend only!)
Looks like we are going to need a bigger boat.
@ Kurt & Matt Brown – How are you guys surprised by Fast 5′s success? The 4th one made 72m on its opening weekend.
The opening weekend was a given. Fast 5′s 2nd weekend was always the more interesting point of discussion.
Because in the fickleness of multiplex audiences I (we?) are box office challenged!
That’s fair. But the only way I could see a series like F&F falter is if the lead star/stars aren’t in them. Example – The upcoming X-Men: First Class is going to seriously underperform without Hugh Jackman.
The real question is exactly how much F5 will burn out (60% drop next week?) Will it make it to $200M? Doubtful.
Exactly. And it’s the 1st summer fight.
F5′s word of mouth seems to be good (for an action film) but like Brittany stated above, Thor has already made 93m overseas. How does this… wait for it….. AUGUR on next week’s box office numbers. Should be interesting.
Yeah if it wasn’t for THOR next week, F5 would do really well next week with word of mouth and positive reviews.
The movie is pretty damn good.
I’m glad you liked it Andrew. And not jumping all over it like Gamble.
No, Thor is a pretty good movie. Fast Five is a terrible film.
Gamble
Are reviewing Thor on this weeks cinecast?
Yes. But it is very brief.
1. Cars 2 – $417m
2. Harry Potter 8 – $390m
3. Transformers 3 – $378m
4. Pirates of the Caribbean – $314m
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $287m
6. The Hangover 2 – $241m
7. Captain America – $226m
8. Thor – $196m
9. Cowboys & Aliens – $179m
10. Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $168m
1. Transformers $ 435
2. Harry Potter $360
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $300
4.Super 8 $260
5. Cars 2 $250
6. Hangover 2 $245
7.Pirates of the Caribbean $235
8. Captain America $ 210
9. Thor $205
10. Green Lantern $180
Thanks all for the entries!! Keep ‘em coming – 2 days left!
I know you guys were joking and nobody’s gonna do it but (just in case) the Price is Right strategy doesn’t work here. The contest scores you on how close you are to the actual number not on if you’re closer to the number than your opponents.
Here is my 100% uninformed, done in under a minute box office guesses:
Harry Potter 8 $300m
Transformers 3 $280m
Pirates of the Caribbean 4 $275m
Thor $260m
Cars 2 $255m
Captain America $240m
X-Men: First Class $220m
Kung Fu Panda 2 $200m
Cowboys & Aliens $180m
Green Lantern $170m
Would be great if the 100% uninformed done in under a minute picks wins this thing.
Looking at the entries thus far, some of them have the eerie ring of truth to them. More so than mine, anyway!
I am betting on that this is the year of superhero fatigue. Betting and hoping.
10. Super 8 – $132m
9. Green Lantern – $133m
8. X-Men: First Class – $160m
7. Thor – $190m
6. The Hangover 2 – $225m
5. Cars 2 – $259m
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $260m
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $273m
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II – $343m
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $383m
That was f*cking hard! Best of luck to everyone. Matt Fabb, looking forward to your picks.
Harry Potter 7.2 – 350
Transformers 3 – 330
Cars 2 – 285
Pirates 4 – 265
Kung Fu Panda 2 – 235
Hangover 2 – 225
Captain America – 200
Thor – 190
Super 8 – 185
X-Men: First Class – 175
Hope I am not late:
1. Harry Potter 7.2 $400
2. Transformers 3 $380
3. Cars 2 $360
4. Pirates 4 $345
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 $330
6. Captain America $320
7. Super 8 $310
8. Cowboys and Aliens $300
9. X-Men First Class $290
10. Thor $280
Thanks guys
p.s. im so sorry Green Lantern
LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES! To be clear, any entry date-stamped prior to MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, Eastern Standard Time, will be eligible; any afterwards will NOT be eligible.
1. Transformers 3 — $375M
2. Harry Potter 8 — $320M
3. Cars 2 — $300M
4. Pirates 4 — $275M
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 — $265M
6. Super 8 — $260M
7. Cowboys and Aliens — $230M
8. Thor — $210M
9. Hangover — $180M
10. Fast 5 — $170M
UPDATE
All apologies. I didn’t realize Fast 5 was out of consideration. Against my better judgement I will simply exchange Fast 5 with Captain America.
1. Transformers 3 — $375M
2. Harry Potter 8 — $320M
3. Cars 2 — $300M
4. Pirates 4 — $275M
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 — $265M
6. Super 8 — $260M
7. Cowboys and Aliens — $230M
8. Thor — $210M
9. Hangover — $180M
10. Captain America — $170M
Purely for bragging rights…
Oh right, my picks! Spoiler warning:
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $431M
2. Harry Potter 7.5 – $351M
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $331M
4. Green Lantern – $298M
5. Cars 2 – $276M
6. Hangover 2 – $251M
7. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $225M
8. Thor – $224
9. Captain America – $201M
10. Cowboys & Aliens – $171M
Wow… My numbers are WAY too high
HANGOVER 2 is tracking better than Pirates.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/risky-business/hangover-part-ii-track-far-185817
I’m expecting a huge opening weekend for Hangover 2 – in the $80 or $90 million range. But it’ll be a front-loaded film overall.
Pirates 4… don’t get me started, I’ve got no idea.
I have no idea what I’m doing here:
1) Transformers 3 ($400)
Cowboys vs Aliens ($210)
2) Harry Potter 7.5 ($310)
3) Pirates 4 ($305)
4) Winnie the Pooh ($295)
5) Cars 2 ($250)
6) Kung Fu Panda 2 ($230)
7) Thor ($225)
9) Super 8 ($200)
10) Captain America ($195)
1. Transformers 3 – $420
2. Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part II – $315
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $300
4. Thor – $275
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $270
6. Cars 2 – $235
7. Captain America: The First Avenger – $220
8. The Hangover Part II – $215
9. Super 8 – $210
10. Green Lantern – $200
My numbers all add up to way too much, but I don’t know where to subtract. As with previous years, just before the deadline with several last minute changes adding a few tens of millions here and there causing a chance in ranking. I don’t think I have a chance in winning, but I’ve thought the same previous years.
I’m tempted to close the contest right now, with your entry in place. But I think we’ll give everyone else their 34 more minutes.
HURRY ALONG, FOLKS!
@Ky The 1st grossed 277m so it’s possible. Than again the 1st didn’t have the competition that the sequel does.
Hangover 1
1st week comp – Land of the Lost
2nd week comp – Taking of Pelham 123
3rd week comp – The Proposal & Year One
4th week comp (1st real threat) – Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Hangover 2
1st week comp – Pirates 3 (2nd week) & Kung Fu Panda
2nd week comp – X-Men: First Class
3rd week comp – Super 8
4th week comp – Green Lantern
Aaaand the contest entries are CLOSED.
Thanks for playing everyone. Feel free to keep commenting on this thread through the summer. We will be announcing the winner in the third or fourth week of September.
Hangover is opening over Memorial Day weekend and will have two extra days because of it. $80 million would be a poor opening for it.
@Matt Gamble & Andrew James – How come you guys didn’t enter?
@James – Is this James from High & Low Brow?
Dunno. Not very good at guessing these kinds of things. Box office numbers just don’t interest me much.
Ok, the auto-tabulator is up and running. You can find a current ranking of the participants here:
http://bit.ly/SBO2011
To make it more interesting and less dependent on the opening dates of the movies, I have “seeded” the results with the box office order predicted by the users of HSX.com. Therefore, the current ranking today is just how close your picks are to the “consensus” view (and should not be construed as you winning in any sense other than making safer picks) but as the summer moves along and real data is available, the best players will rise to the top and it will be completely accurate on the closing day of the contest.
One last thing – since Box Office Mojo was a little flaky last year, I have added a crude cache where if their website is down, it will look at an older saved version of the data. If this is the case it will be indicated on the first page, but just check back in an hour or so and I find that Google/BOM usually has worked things out.
The name of this thread sums up what row three did in regards to freezing the catfish post.
I can’t believe they would shut down their most popular thread on the site. Shame on you row three! Some people have clearly spent alot of time contributing to that thread and for you to come along and revoke their right to post on it is extremely poor form.
I’m very disappointed and will not be returning to this site as the catfish thread was in fact the only reason I was actually on here in the first place.
We understand your concern fisherman and we’ve never had to shut down a thread before. It broke our heart to do so but there are underlying legal reasons it had to be done – for our safety mostly. Hopefully you understand.
Everyone as you were.
I’m seeing Pirates 4 for Penny’s boobs and Transformers 3 because the MAMO guys told me to.
Thanks again to GE, both for the creation of that valuable tracker that is clearly beyond my limited abilities, and for so decisively pointing out just how poorly I’ll be doing this year.
And if the only reason you like this site is the catfish thread, you are pretty unobservant. This site has a shitload going for it and I’m massively proud to be hosted here so graciously.
classic ending to that comment, Drew. I am highly amused!
Just for the record, I think rowthree is a great site! Often the films being reviewed/commented on haven’t reached Australia yet, or are still in the cinemas so sometimes it’s hard to join in.
That being said, I take this opportunity to say that many of the writers at rowthree in my opinion are extremely talented and offer wonderful insights into the films they are presenting or reviewing.
The closure of the ‘Catfish’ thread was a little disapointing for me, however I understand the reasons behind such. Moreover, I know the level of detail being discussed in that thread wasn’t to everyone’s taste. It ran it’s course, it’s done.
wtf is going on? lol
@Matt Gamble & Andrew James – How come you guys didn’t enter?
I’m in the industry and see the tracking numbers.
@Matt Gamble – Tracking numbers would only help you with the month of May. And even then, they’re not always accurate.
Weekend estimates via http://www.boxoffice.com/ because they’re faster than boxofficemojo.
1. Thor – 67m
2. Fast Five – 35m
3. Something Borrowed – 13.5m
4. Jumping the Broom – 12.7,
5. Rio – 8.5m
@Matt Gamble – Tracking numbers would only help you with the month of May. And even then, they’re not always accurate.
Tracking numbers exist for almost every tent pole film. On top of that studios are very secretive about who sees this information, let alone who disseminates it. My entering this contest could cause potential issues between my company and various studios and that is something I am not willing to risk.
Oh okay. Didn’t know it was like that.
Oops, I guess I was thinking internationally with my Thor prediction.
Sooo… I’m already off by $14M with my Fast 5 prediction. Good thing it is ineligible. Thor is on Track? Will it make triple it’s Opening Weekend during a crowded summer?
F5′s 2nd weekend didn’t do much to hinder Thor but I wonder how many people passed on Thor this week because they already got their action fix with F5 last week. Or was Thor only going to make $66m regardless.
Thor is going to make $220 mil because I said so.
Nah, the highest it will gross is $210m. It’s gonna end up in the $190m – $210m range.
It’s competition next weekend is Priest. Thor will make $220,000,000.06
Even still, it will only make $30-33m next weekend.
This is how I see it going down.
1st weekend – 66m
1st week(mon-thurs) – 32m
2nd weekend – 33m
2nd week – 16m
3rd weekend – 16m
3rd week – 7.5m
4th weekend – 8m
4th week – 3.5m
5th weekend – 4m
5th week – 2m
6th weekend – 2m
6th week – 1m
7th weekend – 1m
7th week – .5m
8th weekend + rest of the summer – 3.75m
Add all that up and you get 196.25m
At least that’s what I think. If it’s stays strong next weekend then maybe…
= 196.25m
Can’t edit my posts. Oops ignore that last line – “= 196.25m”
@Rot Damn, reading back my post and it’s a bit confusing. To clarify, if it stays strong next weekend, then maybe you’re right
And the purpose behind the exercise of working out which film will make the most? Sorry, I just don’t get it. As film connoisseurs, surely the dollars reaped are irrelevant? Isn’t this just an exercise in trite commercialism? Who cares how much a film makes, apart from the filmmakers themselves of course? Why aren’t we looking at what the film itself offers, annalysing at the very least why a really ‘shitty’ film can make so much money and why really great writers still sit idly waiting for their big break. Shouldn’t we be asking, why are so many ‘shitty films’ getting so many ‘bums on seats’? The amount of money earned by a film does not necessarily make it a ‘great film’.
Perhaps the viewing audience as ‘a mass’ are really devoid of any artistic compassion and just want ‘entertainment’. Is that it? Afterall, truly arty films usually don’t make the big dollars, but that doesn’t mean those films aren’t great, or won’t at some future time like many novels…be considered ‘landmarks, brilliant, exceptional,,….classics’!
Should we, if this be the answer, rid ourselves of creativity and just make films to formula based on what the ‘viewing audience’ appear to want’?
Or is ‘art’ and ‘creativity’ not part of the ‘money’ equation, so the really creative never stand a chance of being recognised anyway, unless their art looks like it’s ‘really’ commercially viable, or they contort or disfrom their work to suit commerical ends? Does it boil down to a script/film being ripe to be ‘tinged’, or ‘touched’, or ‘hit over the head’ with a bit of ‘perfect product placement’? Is that what’s going to make it, ‘the secret formula’, ‘all bow to the master’, I mean in dollar terms?
I’m not sure, but I have my suspicisions. However, I find trying to work out which film will earn the most money….quite banal…and moreover…..not the least artistically inclined.
Artistic integrity! Mmmmmm…the notion of which film returns the most money….well…this has no ‘artistic integrity’ in my opinion….and no value either.
A game for the mindless…perhaps.
Even still, it will only make $30-33m next weekend.
A +50% drop isn’t a strong weekend.
The amount of money earned by a film does not necessarily make it a ‘great film’
And if you spent any time at all engaging the rest of the readers here on any of the other posts, you’d know that your above statement is shared by most people who post and comment here. The contest is obviously for “fun” and to guess how the mainstream crowd will react to the summer fare. It should really go without saying that the contest has nothing to do with the quality of the films and everything to do with how the popular culture will react to them. Listen to a MAMO podcast and you’ll understand the difference.
The only reason I want Thor to make money is so we can get a full blown Asgard adventure film for the sequel.
Ms. Curious, after watching what you’ve spent the last 9 months of your life on, and then reading your comments above, let me tell you:
You can, honestly, fuck off and never come back.
“A game for the mindless…perhaps.” Fuck you. Who do you think you are?
This is our show. This is what the show is about. If you don’t care about the content, what on earth are you doing here?
@Matt Gamble – I know. 50% drop is standard not strong. I guess my post was confusing. I don’t believe it’s going to have a strong 2nd weekend. I meant that if Thor does have a strong 2nd weekend ($39m or higher), then Rot’s total prediction of $220m might be accurate.
@Ms Curious – lmao! Like Bob stated, it’s just fun. Lighten up and join the contest next year. I bet you’ll get into it.
@Ms Curious It’s like the Oscar pool – I don’t give a flying f*ck who wins the most Oscars each year, but it’s a lot of fun to try and predict who’s going to. Especially when there’s money at stake
Maybe it’s a male competitive-spirit sort of thing.
And as Matt Brown put in slightly harsher terms, please don’t come onto someone’s post and lay into it’s ‘reason for being’. You don’t like it, don’t read it.
I think it’s fair of Ms. Curious to wonder why we’re all so gung-ho about box office in this post when that’s not what most of our content seems to center on – if you haven’t listened to MAMO and aren’t familiar with its content, focusing on box office this much seems out of step with a lot of Row Three’s content. I think the way MAMO approaches box office, though, is useful and helpful, and ultimately a great part of Row Three. Critics are already clearly out of step with audiences, and people like Matt B. and Matt P. are helping us understand why and what it means. The box office contest is a bit of fun to go along with it, certainly not meant as a gauge of quality, but of mass audience perceptions.
It’s rare to see Matt Brown’s buttons pushed, but yes, I believe that Ms. Curious is commenting off the cuff, even speaking out of turn, and mis-understanding the nuance of the MAMO show (The intersection of movies and popular culture.) This is especially ironic considering the crazy obsession with Catfish, methinks the pot may have called the kettle black.
Ms. Curious comments sounds like someone reading this thread without ever listening to a single episode of MAMO. So I don’t think it’s a completely unreasonable reaction of asking why care about box office, until she gets to the back handed insults. Ms. Curious could have listened to MAMO to get an idea where the two Matthew’s are coming from before making such comments. It’s like jumping into a conversation about a film without having seen the film in question and being quite rude about it.
Jandy had it in one, as to why I was wondering why ‘you’re all so gung ho about box office’, the content of this thread seems far removed from what rowthree normally seems to focus on and I was actually trying to find out if there was more to this ‘game’ than I was able to detect or whether the ‘game’ was the end in itself. I haven’t listened to MAMO, and obviously judging by what Jandy wrote, this provides some bigger picture as to the context of the competition and ‘mass audience perceptions’.
My post wasn’t a personal attack on Matt P or Matt B, it was an opinion based on what it appeared was going on in this thread. I’ll try to listen to MAMO and get a better understanding of what is behind it all.
Matt B wrote: ‘If you don’t care about the content, what on earth are you doing here?’ and Andrew James wrote: ‘You don’t like it, don’t read it”.
It seems to me that you guys apply such a strict protocol when it’s your thread or something you like, yet you didn’t give such latitude to the ‘Catfish’ thread now did you? Matt B I recall you posting in that thread comments about it being a ‘a whackshit mess’. I get it now, one set of rules for you and another for me. It’s okay for you to post up an opinion in a thread you’re not interested in, but not okay for me to come into this thread and post up my opinion and try to find out what the purpose is? Kurt, this seems to me to be the ‘pot calling the kettle black’.
Oh and Matt B, I haven’t spent the last 9 months looking at ‘Catfish’, seriously the film only came out here in mid Jan.
You are always welcome here Ms. Curious! Text is hard to read tone from sometimes. And people only know from what they have read in other threads, particularly the catfish thread and it’s obsessive pouring over minutiae.
These guys get a hardon for money. They should be allowed to.
These guys get a hardon for money. They should be allowed to.
Yet these are guys that constantly critique the American economic system in their Twitter accounts. Some might call it hyp…
Aside from their non-consistent, elitist political views, I still like and continue to listen tp MAMO.
um, the American economic system that caused the global recession in 2008? Why would anyone criticize that?
Rot, it was a “Western” problem. The USA is not doing as bad as the PIGS ( I feel sorry for Ireland). Canada and Australia were not hit as hard because of their relatively small population and large quantity of natural resources.
Not just row three crew, but it seems that most “Cinephiles” tend to lean towards the left in their political stance.
I’m center left, but i tend to dislike the whole “America sucks” straw man argument.
Agree. I guess its a testament to the US. Everyone wants to bash or hate on us, yet we couldn’t give a shit about what other countries do.
Anyways, I still love my MAMO.
(from my blog, posted on Friday January 7th 2011, for the archives I guess)
2011 Box-Office Predictions – Game-Fun
So with the 2011′s box-office I’m sure to kick off with a bit of a whimper today, (Nicolas Cage & Witches, dumped into January) Friday Jan 7th in the US, I thought i’d put my first ‘game-ish’ list and prediction the domestic and international box-office totals for twenty films this calendar, the top twenty in order of world-wide gross: ($US is domestic gross, WW for overall world-wide gross)
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows P2 – $US324m – WW $1.01b
Cars 2 – $US352m – WW $988m
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $US308m – WW $945m
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 – $US328m – WW $863m
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon – $US330m – WW $810m
Kung Fu Panda 2: Kingdom of Ka-Boom – $US285m – WW $866m
Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $US252m – WW $729m
Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn – $US216m – WW $695m
Rango – $US239m – WW $586m
Happy Feat 2 – $US143m – WW $534m
The Hangover 2 – $US224m – WW $460m
Sherlock Holmes 2 – $US201m – WW $451m
Captain America: The First Avenger – $US224m – WW $422m
Fast Five – $US170m – WW $395m
Cowboys & Aliens – $US182m – worldwide $325m
Thor – $US109m – worldwide $318m
Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $US131m – WW $306m
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – $US135m – WW $286m
Rio – $US87m – WW $280m
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol – $US98m – worldwide $254m
And if its more you’re sort of game-fun, prediction of the 5 biggest bombs:
Immortals – $US39m WW against $115m budget
Green Lantern – $US118m WW against $150m budget
Conan the Barbarian – $US72m WW against $100m budget
Caesar: Rise of the Apes – $US99m WW against $90m budget
Priest/The Three Muskateers won’t make back its budget
(For the best box-office games, check out the weekly box-office prognostication’s game on the filmspotting.net forums or join in on the US Summer Box Office Game on the Mamo (.blogspot) Podcast, which has a deadline of May 1st and goes by US domestic gross and has points system and all based on top ten picks, once a winner is determined, they get a guest-spot on one of the mamo podcast-episodes, which is epic to me)
Lord knows I’ve been wrong before and Matt B and Matt P must be doing something right to reach 200 episodes! That really is an achievement! Congratulations. I listened to the MAMO podcast (the 200th episode) and I gained a bit more context in respect to the point behind working out which film might make the most money and the ‘cultural impact of one [film] doing better than another’.
I suspect I’d have to listen to a lot of the previous episodes to fully appreciate the overall MAMO impact. It is hard to convey ‘tone’ in a post, so just so this post isn’t taken the wrong way, I enjoyed listening to ‘MAMO 200′ and I have a better idea of the impetus behind voting on which film will make the most money and that such doesn’t necessarily accord to the film being ‘great’.
@Antho
Curious, have you watched Inside Job? It does a very good job pinpointing this economic disease known as the derivative bubble. The derivative bubble is entirely American made, it was conceived under the auspices of the Bush government, with aid from then Fed chair Alan Greenspan and left unchallenged by a toothless SEC and bogus credit rating systems, disseminated as a viable idea disingenuously through academic lobbying. Lehmann Brothers (an american company gone global) was let to fall without consultation of any other country by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson after his consultation with the super elite American bankers. It could have been lessened, had they acted faster but the self-interest won out, and the hope was the carcass of Lehmann could die without affecting the herd; they were wrong.
And a Western Problem? I am sorry, the entire G20 was affected, this was the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression. Canada faired better than some in the beginning but only because our housing bubble hasn’t popped yet, but it will.
I sort of understand being patriotic. I have HUGE love for America in its heyday, Jefferson, Paine, everything Kennedy was able to do in his short stint… but the America that exists today is not that America, it has a superficial veneer harkening to it, propped up by those who want to keep funneling the money upwards. The Americans in the fifties were better off then Americans today… the top 1% hold 95% of the financial wealth of the country. IMF announced this month that in five years China’s GDP will overtake the US as the largest economy in the world. What do you think happens to the American dollar then, this same American dollar that is dropping like a rock?
I spend a lot of my time worrying about the American economy because it affects everything for us in Canada. We have an idiot in charge that fashions himself in Bush’s image. Canada is going to shit, a profound comfortable ignorance is sweeping it, the same blanket that has allowed for the derivative bubble in the first place. If I, or I suspect, the Matts, talk about American economic policy it is because it has a direct result on our own… it is not Us vs Them, we are all in the same boat, and we are trying to slap the hysterical one into some kind of grasp of the situation. You need to start rowing in the right direction (and under Harper, as do we).
to further the analogy, are you going to focus your attention on the small leak in the hull of your boat, or the fuse-ignited barrel of dynamite resting on it?
Actually that is an interesting point Marcus, America being #1 it doesn’t feel as compelled to worry about the rest of the world, hence its shortsightedness. A country like Canada, so dependent on America, has to be preoccupied with it, because one false step by America and we go down too. We have a self-interest in critiquing America, it is not an ego boost, its an appeal to reason. Particularly in times like this, when sovereign defaults are on the table. I think pre-2008, during the Bush years there was more of the moral repulsion of the policies enacted, but then too, a fear of them creeping up north (which they have… all you Americans who believe we are a bunch of communists, we now have a very Conservative majority running us). But post-2008, as Martin Lawrence put it in Bad Boys, Shit just got real. It is not moral quibbling, it is fucking survival.
I tweet incessantly about American economic policies, not to brag (seriously I hide my head in shame at the thought of PM Harper) but because this system is cannibalizing itself, and America, as the great beacon among us, is letting it happen.
2008 is nothing compared to what is coming down the road. Fed quantitative easing is a ponzi scheme that has bought us a bit more time, but that is it. Debt ceilings cannot go up forever. And Japan’s disruption to the supply chain is only accelerating the problems. Today Steve Forbes said US will likely resort to a Gold Standard within the next five years. That is Depression-era talk.
It’s Interesting that it seems overseas has taking a liking to Thor a lot more than we have.
Yeah, and I think a big part of their hard-ons is due to the fact that they got the movie first. Give a dog a bone and watch that tail wag.
Antho42 wrote: ‘Canada and Australia were not hit as hard because of their relatively small population and large quantity of natural resources’.
Maybe Australia hasn’t been hit as hard, but it’s still tough going here and we’re busy ‘selling off’ all of our natural resources. Big concerns as to what we’re going to do when these run out. Rents have sky-rocketed, while house values have dropped, fuel prices out of control, electricity prices have almost doubled, water prices doubled, recent rates hike, carbon tax, flood tax etc imposed. Food prices through the roof, due to all of our farming areas recently being hit by mass floods in what was declared a national crisis. By way of example, $14-$16 AUD for a kilo of bananas, $25-$29 AUD per kilo for steak these days. We’re exporting most of our good quality sea food and left with imported mini prawns etc. Huge tax hike on cigarettes, they’re now around $16 AUD for one packet. Car registration is now up at around $ 650 AUD for one year for a standard vehicle. Insurance costs out of control. Tourism hurting because so many areas affected by the floods. Many businesses forced to close because no one has any money left to spend on any kind of luxuary like dining out etc anyway. Every other day a ridiculous new law is passed for no other reason than revenue spinning, (example: we now face a $300 AUD fine if a surfboard protudes more than 300 milimetres out of a vehicle). Plus, we’ve currently got a government that doesn’t appear to have a clue what it’s doing and keeps sending money overseas when there aren’t enough funds here to help those affected by the floods. So it’s no bed of roses for Australians. Right about now, life on a sailing boat moored near a nice little Pacific Island is looking pretty good.
Actually, a lot of the bigger blockbusters have been performing better in international markets (mind-you, that’s all of ‘em combined) vs. the united states. It has most definitely affected the way movies get made, financed, etc. Movies considered bombs like Troy and Golden Compass were actually mammoth money makers oversees, and speaking of Mammoths, Ice Age 3 was a MASSIVE hit too, even if it was merely ‘successful’ in the US.
It seems studios don’t look at a film as a success if it doesn’t make more money over in North America than overseas. It doesn’t really make sense to me because money is money no matter where it comes from.
The studios auction off the foreign rights generally to finance the big films, so making huge coin oversees doesn’t necessarily translate to profit. This is why Golden Compass pretty much put NewLine out of business (Despite the crazy Lord of the Rings money 5 years prior) even though GC made huge bank in foreign markets…
That makes sense, I had no idea that’s how it worked. Thanks Kurt for the schooling.
I think Warner Brothers is the only Studio that retains much of its foreign Market Distribution rights (You can just smell that Harry Potter gravy Train, Can’t ya?)
Early Weekend Estimates via http://www.boxoffice.com/.
1. Thor – 31.5m
2. Bridesmaids – 22m
3. Fast Five – 18.5m
4. Priest – 14.3m
5. Something Borrowed – 7.3m
Fucking shame Priest is so low. INJUSTICE!
Honestly I’m surprised Priest could even pull out $15M – not a bad opening weekend given the reviews and the star power.
Nikki Finke promised she’d quit reporting on show biz if Bridesmaids had a greater than $15M opening… we’ll see if she sticks to that.
Yeah, Priest had no chance but I thought it deserved more as it’s a pretty fun movie.
Nikki Finke would more likely eat her shoe than give up reporting on show biz.
$34.5 mil for Thor this weekend… all a part of the plan.
I don’t know… looking at the weekday numbers and I’m thinking Thor might end up with lower than $190m. Somewhere between 170m – 190m. We’ll see though.
http://wherethelongtailends.com/archives/if-you-only-need-one-reason-to-watch-priest-here-is-the-reason
I just don’t understand why Priest is getting shellacked by critics. Its not a great movie, but its solid, with some moments of pure awesomeness. I think people just decided they were going to hate it before watching it and made sure to stick to their guns on it.
Shame.
I’m pretty much on board with Gamble on this one, Priest looks like the just the overblown inanity (i.e. Equilibrium) that entertains me. Far more interested in Priest than Thor, albeit I’ve not found the time for either.
Through the magic of cross-posting, my review of PIRATES 4 is now available on Row Three:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/05/19/review-pirates-of-the-caribbean-on-stranger-tides/
I picked it to do $301M. I fear it still will.
Mamo #203 will be recorded and posted on May 20, and will look at Pirates in more depth.
Early Weekend Estimates
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $92m
2. Bridesmaids – $22m
3. Thor – $16.2m
4. Fast Five – $10.7m
5. Rio – $5.2m
Our podcast covering Pirates 4 and Bridesmaids is online!:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/05/20/mamo-203-on-stranger-bridesmaids/
It looks like me underestimating POTC is going to pay off.
I’m in the same boat as you (we both predicted around the $275m mark). However, with only a $90m OW & stiff competition coming, I think PotC 4 might have a hard time reaching that number. Really really hope I’m wrong.
Transformers 3 just moved up its release date by 2 days. Not sure if this matters or not.
Cap’s release date isn’t looking so bad now, it doesn’t really have to much competition after it. Except for Cowboys and Aliens but that looks like this year’s Jonah Hex.
Transformers moving up 2 days will also take a little away from Cars 2 first weekday numbers.
I think I really over estimated Thor at $275m and now I don’t think Pirates 4 will even make my $300m guess. All my other estimates for this contest now seem to be really and I feel like I’ve already lost this contest.
However, I’ve felt the same previous years, so lets see how this goes.
Yup, it’s way too early to tell.
This upcoming weekend is going to be really interesting. Hangover 2 vs. Kung Fu Panda 2. Reminds me of the weekend Wall E ($63m OW) & Wanted ($51 OW) came out. I’m still baffled that Wanted managed to make that much.
“As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that The
Hangover Part II is responsible for a dominant 82% of daily
sales.”
I’m not sure, but does anyone know how “family” stuff tends to do on advance sales VS. R rated? I’m just thinking that with kids it’s not always as easy to plan in advance. I’m expecting Kung Fu Panda to win the weekend pretty handily here, but the Fandango number throws it into a bit of doubt.
Yeah, I’d say Panda still has the weekend locked down, though I am surprised at how closely the 2 films are currently tracking. They may fall within $15M of each other. But what the hell do I know?
4 day-weekend: Hangover 2 ($90m) & Kung Fu Panda 2 ($80m) ?
Early Weekend Estimates (HOLY SHIT!)
1. Hangover 2 – $87m
2. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $49m
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $38m
4. Bridesmaids – $15.5m
5. Thor – $9m
KFP2 underperforms like a bitch. Wow!!! Part 1 made $60m OW and people loved it, so you’d think the sequel would make more. I am fucking stunned. Did Hangover 2 take away that much business from KFP2?
BTW, GE Hale’s Thor prediction of $170m is looking pretty damn accurate right now.
KFP2 is really underperforming. I had it pegged for a $300 mil domestic gross. TH2 is killing it!
There are theories going around that 3D is hurting Pirates and Panda.
@Ky Your Fandango report was an omen.
A lot of us overestimated KFP2. I mean, at the time, it was such a no-brainer that it would do well… Still can’t believe it. I don’t watch tv but I’d assume the marketing was fine. What happened?
And even if it has legs, it only has a month to capitalize until Cars 2 replaces it as the animated film to see.
@Antho I want them to be true. I hate 3D and want it to go away.
Look for Mamo #204, covering Panda and Hangover, to drop Sunday or Monday. Anyone who had KFP2 to gross over $300M is, as of now, yanking on their collars.
@Matt Brown – Can’t wait.
I was over my cousins house a few hours ago & his little sister said she didn’t want to watch KFP2 because it’s too “actiony”. So there’s another factor to it’s box office blunder. Little girls don’t want to see it.
Tum Tum Tyrannus wrote: ‘I hate 3D and want it to go away’.
Yep…I’m on the NO to 3D trail! Seems like the idea is to take a bad/average film, make it 3D, bring out the streamers and whistles and cross your fingers while eating popcorn laced with a bit of everything and a pair of bad fitting glasses just for fun.
I say ‘Quality over Dimension’!
Think of this way….a butterfly in 2D looks brilliant…but, a moth in 3D well at best…it might look like a butterfly with a bit of dimension.
Yep….I’d rather stay with the way the things are!
I had KFP2 as my no. 3 and didnt have Hangover on my top 10 at all. I had both too much faith in KFP2′s quality, and too little in Hangover 2 benefiting from Home Alone Syndrome.
Kung Fu Panda 2 also happens to absolutely suck, which doesn’t help.
“Home Alone syndrome” – bear in mind, the second film duplicated the first one nearly exactly, yet still made $175M in 1992, and was the second-highest-grossing film of the year.
I guess this means Cars 2 isn’t a guarantee either. Here’s to Pixar taking one on the chin for not giving us original material in a few years.
Hangover 2 also sucked. Washing the taste of this weekend out of my mouth with the Book of Mormon soundtrack.
Mamo 204 is up and running! We post-cap The Hangover 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2, and nearly declare the death of cinema itself!
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/05/29/mamo-204-skadouchebag/
I’m curious on how Xmen is going to perform. If I am not mistaking, it has been a boxoffice downhill ever since the second film.
It might also confuse public (its quasi prequel status).
My guess is that, at best, the film is going to perform like Batman Begins. In other words it going to do okay in the boxoffice — but it is going to get rid of the stigma associated with the series, resulting in the highly boxoffice successful sequel.
I think it will do fine but the first week may not show as strong as what the final box office will eventually show.
Also the superhero fad is going to die eventually. No matter how popular a subgenre becomes, it eventually becomes a rare/niche one (i.e., westerns, chanbara, and film noir).
The question is when is it going to die? My prediction is that the superhero craze is going to be gradually fade after the release of Avengers and The Dark Knights Rises.
First Class has no Hugh Jackman. That doesn’t bode well. I think it will do X-Men 1 numbers.
I think your right Tum Tum Tyranus. Wolverine is the most iconic Xmen character for the masses.
I would lay down money Jackman ends up in First Class somewhere.
I agree with the Mamo. The higher ticket price for 3d has created a a negative stigma for the new technology. Most of the 3D films that have been release so far have been crap at utilizing the new technology. It is ridiculous to charge a premium price for a subpar or shitty experience.
If he does, it would have to be a secret cameo and that won’t help the movie bring them in.
Remakes:
The Magnificent Seven
A Fistful Full of Dollars
The Wizard of Oz
The Maltease Falcon
The Departed
The Ring
Solaris (both Tarkovsky’s and Soderberg’s version)
Heat
The Evil Dead 2
Fair enough. But I figure since Patrick Stewart was in Wolverine, they might bring him in here. Jackman would do it too, he’s that type of guy.
Hangover @ 118M in one weekend??!! OOPS.
If anyone had Hangover 2 making this much, you deserve to win.
antho42, you are mistaken, X-men 3 made more than X-men 2 both domestically and in the foreign market. It’s the Wolverine movie where the box office dropped as they focused on one character.
On one hand the promotional material of X-men: First Class really sucks. On the other hand, the early reviews so far say this is a great X-men movie. It only has 21 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes but so far it’s getting 100%.
antho42: “Also the superhero fad is going to die eventually. No matter how popular a subgenre becomes, it eventually becomes a rare/niche one (i.e., westerns, chanbara, and film noir). ”
True, but superhero movies have been around since close to the beginning of film. It’s just gone from a niche to the mainstream. Meanwhile, I think your argument that they would die out soon would have more weight if superhero movies were doing badly critically or at the box office. Yet superhero movies have reached more heights in both areas. There would have to be a long series of very big flops to push it back into the niche again.
Finally, I have a problem referring to anything as a fad when it continues to do well over a decade.
Kurt and Matt Price will be debating this exact issue, Mr. Fabb, over at the Substream headquarters tonight. We’ll post the video later this week.
It’s not a fad, it’s a market bubble.
(Tried to get into the domestic/foreign box-office discussion last night in terms of rising expenses in comic book movies and not-the-greatest-foreign receipts, but it might have proved a bit much for our timeline. Some ‘talking over each other’ and moderated *Shakes fist at Brown*
intervention ensued. Look for the SubStream debate in a little while (as it still has to go thru the post-production process)
” the post-production process” – otherwise known as condensing Kurt’s monologue? more jump edits than a French New Wave film? I kid.
Not far off. It’s editing my gibberish to match Price’s elegant delivery, yes.
I think you both gave Rajo tons to work with, no gibberish on either side.
Brevity is not my strong point, and I’m looking forward to see how both of us (Price & I could have gone for hours on this topic, but were, probably wisely, reigned in!) come out the other side of the Final-Cut-Pro machine.
“Also the superhero fad is going to die eventually. No matter how popular a subgenre becomes, it eventually becomes a rare/niche one (i.e., westerns, chanbara, and film noir).
Yeah, those rom-coms are a lost art.
If a sub-genre is far reaching enough it will have plenty of legs. And superhero isn’t really a genre or sub-genre, as it is simply to wide of a tent. Everything from Superman to Mr Smith Goes to Washington could fall under it, and they encompass multiple genres and sub-genres. You could use a term like super-genre, but that’s kind of ridiculous as it would be better classified as a theme or archtype due to its invasive nature.
On those terms any genre is too big to tent.
Its a shame for your wife that you’re aren’t big enough to tent.
BOOM!!!
Matt Gamble — What are your thoughts on the new Xmen film? Is it the second coming of Christ as the blogs suggest it is?
And I strongly disagree with you. Ever since the first Xmen film, there being a concrete set of tropes that strongly distinguish superhero films from any other subgenre (e.g., the emphasis on origin stories).
The origin story is hardly a bastion of only the superhero film, though its use is common with the modern type, it actually originates with myths and continued with pourquoi stories. These are styles of story telling not genres.
I suppose you could then just call superhero stories parables but then we’d need to start calling modern children’s films fables and you’d be wrapping in far more than comic book movies under this new “genre”.
This is basically retreading the same ground with Kurt’s ridiculous “mainstream comic book super hero action films” genre that he whipped up so he could try and cherry pick films he didn’t like and compartmentalize them rather than deal with them on a film by film basis.
And I’m not really sure why the new X-Men is getting tongue bathed so much. I liked it, Fassbender is awesome and it has several scenes that are truly fantastic and the film has a good bit of nastiness and edge at times, but the production values are awful (really bad CGI and some terrible practical effects as well) and the acting is hit or miss (Its hard to decide who is a worse actress in this film, January Jones or Jennifer Lawrence). Plus it has this sort of goofy camp feel at times which clashes heavily with its oh-so-serious delivery. My guess is audiences hate it and movie snobs love it.
Gamble, I don’t think Kurt’s whipped up “mainstream comic book super hero action films” as a genre per se. But it’s definitely a trope or a sub genre or whatever in film making over the past 20 years and they get more popular each year. I think it’s perfectly valid to say one really likes “mainstream comic book super hero action films” because there is a shitload of them and they all have the same tone, style and “easy to digest” story for the most part.
It might just be her character but January Jones is one of the main reasons I was so down on Mad Men for a couple seasons, the lack of focus on her in the last season made for one of the best seasons of television ever.
She’s a horrible actress, no doubt, but I think on Mad Men her vapid style works perfectly with her character on the show.
Plus she’s, like, super duper hot.
This seems particularly true now that Marvel has taken control of their own properties to turn out: The Incredible Hulk, Ironman 1&2, Thor, and the upcoming Captain America. Heavy on typical origin stories grist (well, maybe not The Incredible Hulk and IM2)
Isn’t X-Men: FC also Origin Story heavy? And then even when the films are not origin stories for the heroes, they are origin stories for the villains (Tim Roth in TIH?).
I am happy to say the Marvel brand as a whole is fucking awful. Genre or no genre. So painfully formulaic it numbs my brain to even think about it.
“Happy”?
Yea, Matt, I found that weird too. I shit on Dreamworks a lot, and their formula, but I’m not happy that they fail, and it does offer some genuine surprise when I see a HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON become a major foot put forward to getting off that path of corporate laziness.
I hope Marvel-Disney finds their way soon, otherwise, they’ll be the death of the Cape movie.
I’m obviously a lot warmer on the Marvel product than most folks on this thread – still call Thor the best movie of this summer, though so far that’s not saying much. Marvel’s train-car corporate strategy with these movies has been a risky one, certainly.
Will be interesting to see if DC’s slower, more methodical creation of property pans out with Green Lantern.
Just got back from XMen, and all I’m saying is “Mutant and proud” is the most cringe worthy piece of dialogue this summer.
Hearty agreement. If they had wholesale extracted that line from all of Mystique’s scenes, she would have been far and away my favourite part of the film.
I didn’t hate the film, i just can’t understand all the praise it’s getting. I thought Fassbender and Macvoy were awesome, but the rest of the cast and the script were horrible.
So far Thor is the best CBM of the summer, and probably will stay there until Cap comes.
On the whole the movie is a miss for me, though it does have some marvelous scenes, and McAvoy and Fassbender were predictably awesome.
I have sat through so many unpleasent experiences that began with a Marvel stamp that, yes, absolutely I take pure joy in calling it shit… the one way to expunge the experience is to vent… had it been a horrible restaurant experience leaving a negative comment would in some small way give me relief… I am also happy regarding Marvel because I am now 100% done with the brand, there is a joy in knowing I am not going to be duped again
That debate between Kurt and Matty Price is up and running on the Substream and crosslinked right here on Row Three:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/06/03/talk-amongst-yourselves-the-great-comic-book-movie-debate/
Just got back from XMen, and all I’m saying is “Mutant and proud” is the most cringe worthy piece of dialogue this summer.
I’d go with “Welcome to my facility.”
“I have sat through so many unpleasent experiences that began with a Marvel stamp that, yes, absolutely I take pure joy in calling it shit”
So does that mean I’m allowed to be “happy” that the majority of the public will avoid seeing the Tree of Life? I’m not happy that I absolutely detest everything he’s put out. I think the films look beautiful, but are otherwise pretentious horseshit of the highest degree. If the guy learned how to put together dialogue instead of just pumping out every piece of footage he could manage to squeeze out of happy hour and then lazily tossing garbage narration on top of everything, maybe I’d enjoy something he does. As it is I’m subject to “tone poem” flowery reviews defending a man who can’t tell a story.
Goon… you will hate hate HATE Tree of Life then. It is chock full of that stuff. Much more than any of Mal’s other stuff.
Matt Gamble – “Plus she’s, like, super duper hot.”
I wouldn’t go that far. She’s cute but not hot.
Rot – “So painfully formulaic it numbs my brain to even think about it.”
Totally agree. I liked Thor but it was incredibly formulaic
Matt Brown – “… still call Thor the best movie of this summer”
On Stranger Tides & Fast Five are way better. : )
Goon – “I think the films look beautiful, but are otherwise pretentious horseshit of the highest degree.”
I don’t even think they are that beautiful. Give me Park Chan-wook & Jean-Pierre Jeunet over Terrence Malick any day.
Early Weekend Estimates
1. X-Men: First Class – $55m
2. The Hangover 2 – $33m
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $23m
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $18m
5. Bridesmaids – $12m
Looks like First Class did X-Men 1 numbers ($54.5m) on it opening weekend.
Domestically speaking, Pirates really shit the bed, huh? Their worldwide numbers will still bear them out but the North American audiences have spoken pretty clearly on this one.
Looks like X-Men will be 55-60M this weekend, which is considered “low” I guess, and people will make some weird estimations about the state of the franchise and blah blah blah. Neglecting the fact that people actually seem to LIKE this one (Including myself) and in a summer that is so far full of critical duds with little positive word of mouth, I’d say X-Men is still going to end up somewhere among the top grossers overall. Look at Bridesmaids’ low week-to-week drop-off – I think X-Men will do not as well as that, but similarly.
I don’t know about the critical duds part. Fast Five, Thor, Bridesmaids, and Kung Fu Panda all have high scores on rotten tomatoes.
Actually, it seems the critics are being really forgiving towards the summer blockbusters.
so superhero movies trending lower box office so far, was banking on this (however I did over-estimate Thor).
X-Men First Class had pretty lousy advertising campaign. Also we are coming off of X3 and Wolverine both being pretty bad movies. So no matter how good this movie was I didn’t expect it to have a good opening weekend. However, I expect it to have a good run based on good word of mouth from what I’m hearing about it (I’ve yet to see it).
In my top pick I had X-men First Class just under $200 million and so out of my top ten and I think that’s around where it might end up. I switched places between X-men & Green Lantern a couple of times before going with Green Lantern as my #10 pick.
Of all my picks I regret Kung Fu Panda 2 the most, and dearly will pay for it. I didn’t put X-Men in my top 10, never expected it to do as well more because of Wolverine and much less X3. I have a theory about it being a period piece also hurting it (financially, I think a lot of people tend to balk at such things) but we’ll have to see how Captain America does.
@ Rot – You were on the right track though. Of the 4 superhero movies, Thor will most likely be the highest grossing.
I look at the Captain America trailer and just think it caters too much to the geek audience, who are already going to see it anyways. The general public will see that trailer and be put off by it. WWII, not colorful enough/too drab, humorless?/too serious, and the costume is too pedestrian & doesn’t look iconic (Captain America doesn’t look important/captivating).
@ Goon & anyone else who has seen First Class – I’ve always romanticized the Hellfire Club as this aristocratic, highly sexualized/uber-deviant mutant cabal. This musical piece pretty much encapsulates what the Hellfire Club is to me. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B5KPIDSrlk
Based on the trailers I know it’s a long shot, but does the movie capture this vibe of the Hellfire Club? I’m cool with another interpretation of the group but am just wondering if there is any hope of my ideal Hellfire Club being in the movie.
Lots like my prediction for a Batman Begins-like scenario for First Class is looking to be sound.
Looking at the top ten — except for the comedies — most the films have a higher percentage of the grosses stemming from the international than the domesitc market. Interesting.
Hollywood dependence on the worldwide grosses is probably affecting filmaking (e.g., The Karate Kid and Red Dawn aren’t portraying China in a negative manner). Interesting.
I still thing that Captain America is going to bomb internationally.
First Class has a long way to go before it gets to Batman Begins’ $200M domestic gross. Not a lot of time for it to hold on to the comic book movie fans before Green Lantern comes out.
The big surprise definitely remains Kung Fu Panda, which the dealmakers are now looking at to make a staggeringly low $165M overall. I don’t think any of us saw that coming.
I think that’s what the Hellfire Club is in the movie, but you’re only in it for about 30 seconds so you can’t really tell. I do think Bacon made a pretty solid Sebastian Shaw.
I wouldn’t go that far. She’s cute but not hot.
January Jones pretty much epitomizes the classic idea of beauty. Which isn’t to be confused with Christina Hendricks, who is pretty much walking sex.
“I look at the Captain America trailer and just think it caters too much to the geek audience….”
I know even less about Captain America than I did about Iron Man going into that film, and what I know about Captain America is just boring. I think the trailer looks like ass. I like that it’s another period piece, I always agreed with Jay that the Fantastic 4 should have done this too. But in that trailer what takes me out from the get go is the ADR for the skinny scrawny Steve Rogers. If there’s a lot of origin setup I am prepared to dislike that entire segment of the film, it feels Leo DiCaprio accent in Blood Diamond level “No. Just No.” I don’t know why I ran to that reference but yeah.
If Green Lantern ends up being ass, and as much as I’m looking forward to it I expect a lot of hate, I will be highly amused if it’s X-Men , which has had the least buzz overall, that is left standing on top of the comic book heap.
One of the big important things that is in X-Men that wasn’t in Thor, or Iron Man 2 really, is stakes. The Marvel Avenger films don’t seem to want to let any dangerous event happen to undermine what is going to happen when they all get together. Because apparently who cares if the world is threatened in Avengers if its already happened in Thor, Cap, etc. And they may even fuck that up. I openly hate this Avengers experiment so far, and funny enough with rewatches of all these films I found I like the Hulk reboot a bit more now. For all its flaws and the Avengers stinger it also has, it feels more self contained and wants to prove something to itself. As much as I also like the Ang Lee Hulk the reboot has its value to me now as well. I tend to think now the fact they did the reboot so fast worked against it at the time. Too soon to take seriously at all, especially if they were going in a less artful direction.
lol, I can agree with you on that.
As for First Class, I’m sure Kevin Bacon did a good job regardless if he’s portraying Sebastian Shaw from the comics (No mutton chops? C’mon!, jk)
My above post was towards Matt Gamble (lol, me & Goon posted at the same time)
@Goon – Agreed with a lot of your points except the last paragraph. As a comic book geek, I’m looking forward to the Avengers & think it’s actually cool that Marvel is doing it. Though, I think a part of their reason ($) is misguided. Just because you have 4 Marvel properties doesn’t mean the movie is gonna make quadruple the amount.
Marvel movies is to comic geeks what Twilight is to little girls. I actually prefer Twilight because there is less obnoxious CGI battles. I am not opposed to the concept of the superhero genre, I am opposed to making it so fucking dull. Anyone who can watch Thor and tell me it is working on a different level of sophistication in dialogue from Twilight is not to be trusted. They both work from an assumption of types and rely on the types to propel the story, and don’t get bogged down in the need of real character development or emotional complexity or anything that cannot be telegraphed three scenes ahead of time.
If the point of straight genre is to adhere as close to possible to a scene-by-scene formula then mission accomplished! Maybe if I haven’t already seen giant robots blow up buildings a dozen times before with the same no-stakes veneer than I might be enthusiastic. Cinema has evolved, capacities for narrative suspense has evolved, post-Nolan Batman the stakes are different, if you don’t raise them you just wallow in the same kind of navel-gazing that Twilight gets shit on about. Nothing Marvel has done has raised the stakes, it is rinse and repeat, cash out, rinse and repeat and cash out. If all westerns were High Noon or Shane I would be equally pissed off with that genre, but they are not, they tend to use the sparse pioneer aesthetic as a backdrop for actual characters you can care about, questions of mortality, of honor, of friendship. People can actually die in Westerns and their death mean something rather than be a symbolic motivation to fulfill a quest. Realism is tolerated, the art of conversation is tolerated, real emotion is tolerated, hell even existentialism is tolerated. The Marvel universe on film has none of that, it pays lip service at best.
“Marvel movies is to comic geeks what Twilight is to little girls. I actually prefer Twilight because there is less obnoxious CGI battles”
Maybe a bit harsh, although Kevin Smith joked about the same thing at Comic-Con about 4 years ago. 90% of everything is crap (this is the ‘law’ of popular culture in any genre, really) but I guess my big point which didn’t come out the editing on the Great Comic Book Debate, is that with rising costs, and rising distractions (L.A. Noir, World of Warcraft, etc.) the business of making these megabudgeted movies is unsustainable, and that fickle audiences will crash this trend in about 5 years or so… We’ve hit ‘PEAK CBM’ somewhere in 2011, it’s all flat or downhill from here folks.
In terms of real characters, existentialism, etc. Hulk had it, and was stung pretty badly by audiences, I wish I retorted this at the time to Matty Price.
90% of everything designed for blockbuster status is crap, NOT films that strive for content and less financial ambition. It is the whole idea of making something by committee, which granted, all films are to some point, but when the GOAL is purely hypothetical financial and the committee striving towards that success are without inherent vision or something they feel compelled to say, than of course you will get the camel.
Marvel movies are a herd of camels. Twilight is also a camel.
Nolan waits until he has something he feels is significant enough for his time to say and then does it… I don’t see that restraint in anything Marvel related… they churn them out as product and should be considered that, just toothpaste for the masses. They are designed for a broad appeal, tinkered with until they hit the right mark of summer blockbuster entertainment and geek fetishism, and make sure you can sell toys, and product placements, and promote your other products within the same product, and people like explosions and monsters so put a few of them in, shake it up and there you go. You get what was put into them. Matt Brown was talking before about the Hangover appealing to the cellphone in the theater crowd, I think the same applies to what is aspired for with Marvel. The broadest audience includes keeping the attention of those in the audience surfing their blackberries. Certain filmmakers consider their reputation with making movies, and so Spielberg, Abrams, Nolan, they are going to do more than check the boxes.
…they also have cache to do so. They do not need to make camels, they can work from a vision because their names have brand recognition, and the financiers accept that.
and because I know Kurt will bring up Star Trek, I will say again in anticipation that film works like gangbusters not because he reinvented the wheel but because he improved the pacing problems that affect most blockbusters… there was not enough time to think about the structure, because everything was sped up, and for an origin story no less!
From Box-Office Mojo:
“X-Men: First Class’s opening reiterates the danger of rebooting a still prominent franchise without a clean break and the passage of a lot of time (Wolverine was just two years ago). While wanting to restart things after the quality issues of Wolverine and X-Men: The Last Stand was understandable, First Class was just a Wolverine-less prequel to the public and couldn’t shake the baggage of those last two movies. First Class’s marketing, which sent mixed messages by including references to the previous movies, didn’t go into the movie’s actual story. It merely focused on seeing what the X-Men were like when they were young and the brewing disagreement between Professor X and Magneto, which was already covered in the previous movies.”
There was one reason to see X-Men: First Class, and that reason was worth it: Michael Fassbender. (McAvoy and Lawrence to a smaller degree, but they were also good.) That movie was made enjoyable by the sole fact that it had good actors – lesser actors with its rather clumsy script would’ve sunk it entirely, as it was, Fassbender made it worthwhile. Too bad they couldn’t market it that way, since Fassbender isn’t a big name to the mainstream. Yet.
It’s always weird to me reading the Box Office Mojo recaps of why films did or didn’t do well at the box office. Their reasons almost never hit any of the reasons I do or don’t see a movie. I guess largely because their reasons rely on marketing, and marketing plays into about 5% of my moviegoing decision-making. It’s like reading a foreign language.
Box office (particularly opening weekend) is not about the movie, it is about the marketing and other ‘built-in’ info that is percolating in the media and pop culture.
Which is why I never understand box office. I go see films based on directors, actors, and advance reviews. Not marketing or whatever. Two bad X-Men films didn’t factor in, because those two didn’t have Fassbender/McAvoy/Lawrence, and weren’t directed by Matthew Vaughn, which attracted me before I saw any marketing (other than the announcement of their involvement).
“X-Men: First Class’s opening reiterates the danger of rebooting a still prominent franchise without a clean break and the passage of a lot of time”
I think the analysis on X-Men’s box office is pretty lame at this point. It had things working against it beyond passage of time. It doesn’t* have Wolverine as a selling point which was a big thrust of the series, it’s coming out in a summer where Cap, Thor and Green Lantern are all having their FIRST films and some people will just conserve their dollars or at least tame their excitement. I think X-Men for most people was a ‘wait and see what people are saying’ film, and in the long run I think this is going to do as well as if not better than Thor, and possibly as much as the other comic films.
Also X-Men isn’t in 3d so no extra bump there.
*if you catch my drift
All I can say is, thank goodness we have Rot around here to tell us how things really are – otherwise, who knows, we might have to have opinions of our own!
People pay too much attention to the opening weekend as part of the story. The bigger box office stories to me this weekend are the Hangover’s massive crash (it made even less this week than the first Hangover did on its second week) so that’s a complete reversal of the effect of word of mouth from the last one. And Bridesmaids continues to have a very strong week-to-week drop that has carried it past $100M.
So I don’t think the real box office story of X-Men can be told for several weeks. The Pirates story is still unfolding too, as the international numbers for it are ridiculous.
“is that with rising costs, and rising distractions (L.A. Noir, World of Warcraft, etc.) the business of making these megabudgeted movies is unsustainable, and that fickle audiences will crash this trend in about 5 years or so… We’ve hit ‘PEAK CBM’ somewhere in 2011, it’s all flat or downhill from here folks.”
I agree, actors and actresses make too much money; they are no longer bringing in people. There is no reason that I film should cost more than 30 million dollars (without marketing).
Kurt, so you believe that film is going to die in the next 10 years?
Oh I KNOW my opinion is a minority view, if I get heated about it, it has to do with the fact that I am surrounded by a consensus view that is in opposition to mine. Geek culture rules cinema discussions and film blogs and comic geek culture is a big piece of that pie. I like genre films and comic book movies to a point, but relative to most people around here, that saturation point is significantly less.
I believe the $150-200M film may die as the overall movie industry continues to decline in ticket sales and the home-theatre level presentation continues to get cheaper to middleclass folks.
I’m naive enough to hope to settle back at the $80M movie will make a come-back, the auteur-blockbuster (David Fincher, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Michael Mann, etc.) will be the driver in the future. That way, studios only half to shoot for $100M grosses to ensure profitability and don’t collapse when they sell off foreign rights of say Golden Compass, and the thing bombs domestic (but thrives internationally.) Yep, Naive.
I subscribed to Mamo’s “audiences are always one film behind” theory, so I think the latest X-men’s lack of success does have a lot to do with X3 and Wolverine, no matter that it has a new cast and director.
I also think Captain America has what I’ve seen played to mainstream audiences, more so than geek audiences. Also as a fan of Joss Whedon, I think it will be good (or at least I will enjoy it). I also think he will do a great job on Avengers, when he describes the movie as a bunch of people in the same room, who really shouldn’t be in the same room together. He’s had a few missteps but to me they are in a minority. Of course, just because he will make a movie that *I* think is great, doesn’t mean others will share my opinion.
Kurt, might even superhero movies pull back the budget into the $100 million range and still have good effects. Cut back on the groundbreaking side of things and keep within the realm of what they already know they can do? Look at what they did with Hellyboy 2 that apparently costs just $85 million.
Honestly (and per our most recent episode, #204) I think theatrical distribution will die long before anyone figures out that they should stop greenlighting $150M+ films. The latter is just not the way the capitalist mentality works, and certainly not in the States, where this particular kind of madness is not limited to movies in general, or comic book movies particularly.
It would be lovely if everyone suddenly decided they could make great movies for $80M a pop, but when a $200M Pirates movie is on the way to making three quarters of a billion dollars in direct ticket sales, plus allllllll the ancillary business that a property like that generates in toys, video games, and theme park visits…. well, it’s gonna be a hell of a long time before anyone at Disney considers that $200M badly spent.
For every Pirates 4 there is a Mars Needs Moms.
Matt Brown, Sony is already adopting the strategy for the Spiderman reboot.
The argument here is not that a studio won’t spend $200 million dollars on a proven property like Batman, it is whether or not it is willing to spend $200 million dollars on an unproven property, or a director willing to do something new with the form, something unconventional and groundbreaking outside of the Spider/Bat/Super man franchises. Once you get into the $200M range, it is sort of death by committee, and the villainitis/bloat issues can become problem. This is what Spiderman 3, Batman and Robin, etc. etc. have taught us thus far.
Oh, absolutely. You have to be Jim Cameron or Chris Nolan to get original work greenlit above the $150M range. But I didn’t think that was what we were talking about here – for better or worse, the summer has become the playground of the franchise property, NOT the original work. Inception being the exception that proves the rule.
And speaking of original property, here’s a piece on the battle to sell this summer’s biggest no-precedent question mark, Super 8:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/soft-tracking-be-damned-paramount-saving-jj-abrams-super-8-plot-secrets-until-friday/
I’m not generally one to agree with Devin Faraci on all that much, but holy christ are we on the same page here:
http://www.badassdigest.com/2011/06/05/whats-inside-the-mystery-box-of-jj-abrams-career
I see J.J. Abrams as a brand, and a pretty damn successful brand Lost onwards. Lost, Cloverfield, Star Trek, MI3, Fringe are to my mind all great. Particularly the mystery box mythology building of Fringe and Lost, that to me is where the brand excels, and I think why Super 8 feels like an extension of this, more so than MI3. It doesn’t matter to me how involved Abrams is if those projects that are associated with his name time and again turn out to be great. It is either a fluke or there is something being added by him more than name recognition.
Don’t forget Alias! It went off the rails in the middle, but the first two seasons were as good as Lost or Fringe.
Never liked Faraci mainly because he sucks at podcasting. Podcast review > Print review any fucking day!!!!! Podcasting is where the big boys play. Nick, Justin, & Steve had to carry the CHUD Show.
Starting to regret putting Super 8 in the top 10 (my low $132m prediction seems too high). I’m thinking it’s gonna open to $35m.
I never watched Alias so can’t speak for it.
Fair enough, but a discussion of Abrams as a brand (I think you’re right) should include Alias. That’s where his name, and his brand, got started. Again, the article talking about the marketing of Super 8 just seems weird to my warped head – seems like all you’d have to do is mention Abrams and Spielberg are working together – what more marketing do you need? But I guess that doesn’t reach beyond the fanboy and nostalgia crowd.
Jesus – so Faraci’s argument is that because Abrams’ first decade of produced work wasn’t very good, he’s a big fake? And so by extension, if you don’t burst onto the scene as a fully-formed creative genius, you’re unworthy?
Even leaving aside the fact that Faraci himself consistently bats squarely for the middle of the talent pool of online movie commentators – hardly a pool with a surfeit of geniuses – that is one insanely masturbatory logic sequence.
The world’s got a lot more Abramses in it than it’s got Spielbergs and Welleses. People learn, mature, and get better at what they do. Articles like this make me sad to be a human. Where on earth do hacks like this get off?
I DON’T EVEN LIKE ABRAMS THAT MUCH. But that is one of the ugliest pieces of writing I’ve seen about a major movie in years.
I think the gist is a reaction to the geek-tongue-bath he constantly gets, that is what colours it. It’s a commentary of what we settle for, rather than a commentary on whether Abrams will get better with age or not. That’s how I read it, anyway.
Yeah but that’s not how he argued his point, IMHO. The tongue-bath is for the work he does now, and maybe it’s underserved or amplified, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the relative merits of Regarding Henry, his unproduced Superman script, or anything else.
Well whatever, he’s a wanker.
Mamo #205 is up and running! We talk X-Men: First Class!
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/06/08/mamo-205-x-mamo/
SUPER 8 on track for $30M this weekend. Everyone in the contest with the film in their top ten just crapped their pants.
Super 8 has been ridiculously interesting in terms of back-office politicing by the studios. I can’t remember a film being so bad mouthed by other studios in an effort to soften sales. And none of it has been based on the quality of the film, but rather that the film’s tracking peaked far too early.
Titanic made 28 mil first weekend, but yeah, the marketing for this has been shit, could be a disaster
Since, it was made for 50 Million and no big time actors. I’d say 30 Mil opening weekend is really good for film like this.
I think the first summer bomb will come this Friday with Green Lantern.
Early Weekend Estimates
1. Super 8 – $34m
2. X-Men: First Class – $24.5m
3. Hangover 2 – $17.3m
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $16.5m
5. Pirates 4 – $10.8m
Matt Brown – “Everyone in the contest with the film in their top ten just crapped their pants.”
Hurts more when Super 8 wasn’t in my top 10 initially. It was battling Captain America for my #10 slot and the only reason I second guessed myself & picked it was because everyone else seemed to have it in their top 10. : (
Goon — David Poland does not believe that the film cost 50 million dollars.
I’m not deriding Super 8′s take; it’s definitely a good amount of money for a movie like this. (The purported $50M cost, though, is heavily debatable – and also doesn’t include marketing.)
I’m just pointing out that Super 8′s chances of making the top ten are virtually nonexistent at that starting point. (Sorry Mike: it ain’t Titanic.)
I just came back from Super 8, and yeah it ain’t Titanic, it ain’t even bad Spielberg, it is just meh. I am someone who will defend MI3 as a solid summer blockbuster, so really, to me this is Abrams first big fail.
I have weird feelings about Super 8. As I watched it I had some feeling that I was seeing something special, and I consistently smiled, and I connected with all of the kids as reference points to people I knew, which I’m sure is entirely by design, but it worked on me and increased my enjoyment of it.
Yet I left somehow feeling I expected more. And I’m not sure if that was from the story or going deeper in with the characters, or what. I don’t know if this is relative to expectations, or the ‘secrecy’ marketing working against it, or what.
So for now I feel like my heart is telling me I saw something great, but my brain is saying “The more you talk about Super 8, the more confused you’ll be until you see it again”.
1. Super 8 $38 million in four days, $37 million in its first weekend at 3,379 theaters. $10,950 theater average. Domestic total: $38 million.
2. X-Men: First Class $25 million down 55% in its second weekend at 3,692 theaters. $6,310 theater average. Domestic total: $98.9 million.
3. The Hangover Part II $18.5 million down 41% in its third weekend at 3,675 theaters. $5,034 theater average. Domestic total: $216.6 million.
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 $16.6 million down 30% in its third weekend at 3,929 theaters. $4,234 theater average. Domestic total: $126.9 million.
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $10.85 million down 40% in its fourth weekend at 3,433 theaters. $3,159 theater average. Domestic total: $208.8 million.
SUPER 8 went nicely over the initial Friday estimates, which is a good sign. My guess? It’s still got a shot at a $150M finish, but only barely. Won’t be in the top ten.
Predictions on Green Lantern? I think it could bomb, regardless of how good it turns out to be. Even if it is good (or great) film, it looks to be too goofy/weird for the mainstream. I do think that Ryan Reynolds is a big draw (it has being lately popular to hate him).
Haven’t seen the tv spots because it’s 20X1 (who watches tv with commercials?) but I think the last few trailers focus too much on the space stuff. Like Captain America, it caters to the geek audience & leaves the public isolated/confused. The Thor trailer is what these superhero films should strive for if they want financial success.
The Thor trailer is what these superhero films should strive for if they want financial success.
I’m the first to admit that I don’t understand marketing and box office stuff, but that baffles me. The Thor marketing campaign made it look like the stupidest movie of the year. If the reviews hadn’t been so generally positive, you couldn’t have paid me to go see Thor based on the trailers. From best to worst, my ranking of superhero movie trailers this year: X-Men: First Class, Captain America, Green Lantern, Thor. And on Green Lantern, the second and third trailers are way better than the first – the first looks totally generic (the one that starts with him waking up and telling the girl there’s water in the tap); the other two look like the film might be Fifth Element-style goofy, which I’d be totally down for.
I wasn’t a big fan of it either but that’s what works. Put the comedy in & show some big action set piece, money shot moments.
Don’t know if you only saw the 1st trailer but the second (most advertised) was the one that played well with the public. At least in my opinion.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHBnrJowBZE
Oh yeah, and the trailer has to outline the premise of the film clearly to the uninformed public, which that Thor trailer did.
I’d agree that the Green Lantern campaign has been a bit of a mess. I have no idea how the hell the public is going to respond to it, nor do I think anyone does.
X-Men: First Class, good trailers? The whole ad campaign to me was a complete mess. It all seemed to be “hey remember those guys from the other X-men movie? It’s them again but with new actors. Yup, it’s them. See wheelchair & helmet, it’s them.” Over and over again. Then as the Mamo’s Matt’s pointed out they ended up flooding the web with clips.
The big difference between a breakout movie like Inception and Super 8? Inception has recognizable big name actors, while Super 8 had a bunch of kid actors that no one knew.
Also I’m still not sure how Green Lantern will play either.
Honestly I think the only *good* superhero campaign this summer has been Captain America.
Thor – I’m with Jandy, that campaign was all over the place and made the film look pretty stupid at times. I was really behind the second trailer, I thought that was a pretty impressive piece of work to put the message out to non-fans, but they watered the campaign down afterwards with too much conflicting messaging.
Green Lantern – they’ve had a rough time finding their feet, I think the trailers are improving but it’s still going to be a hard sell to the audience.
X-Men – The weakest of the lot, the trailers and ads were almost uniformly terrible and they gave away pretty much the whole movie in a desperate attempt to sell it.
Captain America’s real strength has been in discretion. They had one trailer, they kept it under wraps forever, they’re only now beginning to leak out further material.
The Thor trailers for me focused way too much on the earth stuff, which I found totally uninteresting. Every time it jumped to Asgard, I was like, oh, this part looks kinda cool, but the trailer made it seem like it would be 80% earth, 20% Asgard. That’s pretty much the opposite of what the film actually is. Of course, when I first heard Kenneth Branagh was making a movie about Thor, I didn’t know it was a comic book and was hoping it would actually be a Norse myth story – there was very little of the Norse mythology in the trailer, though there was a lot more in the movie. When the first trailer had all this modern Earth setting, I tuned out totally until the reviews came out mentioning it had a lot more stuff in Asgard than on Earth.
X-Men: First Class – I liked the trailer for that because it was clear they were taking it seriously, and I liked the historical setting, and it was clear even from the trailers that Fassbender and McAvoy were doing a bang-up job. I really just wanted to see them. I don’t think it gave it away – I don’t remember knowing ahead of time how closely tied in to the Cuban Missile Crisis the film is, and I really enjoyed that aspect.
Captain America has me solely through historical setting and the production design. I really, really hope the part with Chris Evans’ head CGI’d onto the kid’s body doesn’t last very long – that part of the trailer sucks.
I do agree Green Lantern is going to be a tough sell to most any audience. It looks far more like mid-’90s goofy sci-fi like Fifth Element or The Mask, and I’m not sure that will play well today.
^^Unless the Cuban Missile Crisis stuff was in a trailer I didn’t see. I often don’t watch more than the first trailer, especially if I’ve already decided to see the film.
Yep…go ‘Captain America’…we all need someone strong to hold on to in these indecent times!
Ms. Curious is awesome.
People are saying Green Lantern is on track to make $50M this weekend. Better than I expected.
Latest episode of Mamo is up, wherein we try to sort out what’s up with Super 8.
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/06/14/mamo-206-attack-the-super-8/
Man, who would of thought that Thor (probably lesser known of the four superhero movies) looks to be the biggest earner of the four.
Well, jury’s still out on that one… Either Green Lantern or Captain America still has a standing chance of catching up to Thor, though GL’s chances are looking weaker and weaker by the second.
I’d say X-Men’s goose is cooked, regardless.
Yeah, the reports are that Green Lantern is tracking at 50 mil, which then it would probably be lucky to get to 120 mil. Also I was thinking more in global terms. I think Thor had a European sensibility to it that made it pretty successful over seas. I personally love Cap as a character, but like it’s been said a million times before i can’t see the rest of the world going to see a guy wearing an American flag.
It’s interesting to see X-men: First Class just about mirroring the business of the first X-men. Although with increased ticket prices that is a smaller crowd. Still I think with good word of mouth another 1960′s X-men movie has a lot of potential.
Thank you Tum Tum Tyranus…your kind words warmed my heart! It was wonderful to be called ‘awesome’.
Now that reviews on GL are finally trickling out (and looking quite disastrous), I think your call is right on the money, Brittany. I wonder if a film like this carries overseas. It certainly doesn’t look like it’ll do well enough in North America.
Super 8′s chief flaw from BOXOFFICE MOJO:
“Distributor Paramount Pictures’ exit polling indicated that 71 percent of Super 8′s audience was over 25 years old and 56 percent was male.”
71% over 25! Something tells me that ET didn’t have the same demo, SUPER8 should have at least been a 3-Quadrant movie, judging from these numbers, it appears to be a single quadrant, and not even the most lucrative one.
Heartily concur. I wonder if Super 8 hit a weird spot in the demographic – males over 25 who don’t have kids of their own yet.
The marketing campaign played it up like a horror film, very dark and ominous. Had it been a Goonies or Monster Squad-like portrayal of the kids taking up the poster space looking out at that something scary, perhaps more kids would have seen it.
Well, I consider myself adventurous with my little ones’ (who are 8 and 6) cinemagoing adventures and after seeing Super 8, I was thinking to myself, perhaps in a couple years… I’m sure if they were 13 and 11, they’d find this pretty amazing though.
For the record, they LOVE the Goonies and Gremlins.
So from the reviews it seems like Warners/DC really missed the mark with Green Lantern, which as a fan of the character (although it’s been a long time since I’ve read any recent Green Lantern comics) that is a shame. It’s strange how Warners/DC can continue to fail making live action movies, when their animated movies continue to be so good and well written. I realize the animated movies have a lot more freedom showing things that would be impossible to do in a live action movie, but still they do such a great job in adapting existing comic storylines. Example, no matter how good the upcoming Superman movie might be, I doubt it will compare to how incredible good the All-Star Superman DVD movie is.
TORO913 is the leader for me come mid-June, i’m still optimistic that I either get the top 2 right, or 1 of the other eight exactly right (outside chance, Hangover 2 to make $241m)
As GREEN LANTERN coasts towards what may be a warm-ish $60M weekend, Deadline tells tales on how this committee-thinking movie got made:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/green-lantern-makes-3-35m-midnights/
And for those interested, my review of the film has been cross-posted, right here on Row Three:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/06/17/review-green-lantern/
With Mr. Price on vacation, we’ll likely not cover GREEN LANTERN on Mamo till the release of CARS 2.
@Darcy – Yeah, Toro’s picks look good but it’s still up in the air.
For a movie that seemed to be a box office bomb a few weeks ago, I’d say $60m for Green Lantern is pretty impressive.
That is impressive. When think about it, Thor made 66 mil while having the Ironman 2 lead in and the huge Avengers hype machine. Green Lantern didn’t have the benefit of either and at the same time is very hard sci fi movie. So 60 mil would be very impressive in my opinion.
Underestimating everything except Potter and Transformers seems to be doing well for me.
I wonder if we might have a Kung Fu Panda 2 situation with Cars 2. Where it seems like a big money maker because of the popularity of the first. But ultimately falls flat because no one was asking for it.
Brittany: there was a time when I had Cars 2 as the likely top earner of the summer. My estimation has dropped and dropped as we’ve come closer to the release. You’re right: where’s the excitement? Who’s looking forward to this property? I’m sure it’ll still make a good amount of money, but it ain’t gonna be Toy Story 3.
Toro913: you are, thus far, scarily accurate.
@Matt Gamble – I emphatically apologize for saying January Jones was just cute. Just saw First Class (like Matt Price, it’s now my fav film of the year) and wow, she’s really beautiful. Never should have doubted you.
Best thing about Green Lantern doing $58m OW? More nude pictures of young hot actresses. : )
Now I really wish Emily Blunt was Black Widow. Fuck you Gulliver’s Travels!
CBS News does a runoff between Green Lantern’s viral marketing presence, compared against Thor’s:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504943_162-20072275-10391715.html
With Thor getting generally positive reviews and making 434 mil worldwide, I think there’s a pretty good chance of a sequel. I just hope that they go total adventure flick and set in Asgard and explore the other realms.
Brittany, Mark Protosevich’s script for Thor (from 2007) was much as you describe. It’s well worth reading, and one hopes they’d have thoughts along those lines for a sequel.
Cool, I’ll have to check that out.
@tum tum; X-Men 1st Class is NOT my fave film of the year, but I did really like it. A Lonely Place To Die remains my fave thus far.
Oh yeah, that’s right, from the Action Fest. My bad. I think you said First Class was your fav of the summer blockbusters.
And speaking of First Class, I HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend the THOOM! podcast review of the film. Nothing like MAMO (or any other show for that matter) but still really really entertaining. It’s just 2 chill brothas talking about First Class. Almost going scene by scene, discussing what they liked & disliked. Beware, it’s very vulgar & not for the faint of heart.
http://thoomcast.blogspot.com/2011/06/episode-215.html
If you’re new to the show, skip the preamble and go directly to the review [15:23 - 53:48]. It ends when they start talking Fast 5.
Out of my predictions, I think my #1 & #2 might still come through, I think the rest of my list is pretty far off. Perhaps my dollar value on Cars 2 and Captain America might hit, but I’m doubting even those at this point.
Instead of taking the blame for my bad predictions. I’m blaming the studios for bad marketing and put out very average blockbusters this summer.
Also, Favreau’s theory of film cannibalism seems to be incorrect because none of the films are good enough to take away from another’s success.
I am still holding out hope that everybody did lousy, and so relative to everybody I am the least lousy.
Weak domestic? Whatever. PIRATES 4 just entered the top ten highest grossing films of all time:
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
Which makes it, for now, the top grossing film of the year.
Were I to guess, I’d think it will probably land 7th, displacing DARK KNIGHT, though it could also gobble up ALICE if its tail holds.
(Bear in mind, of course, the box office contest still plays in domestic numbers – so this tidbit is not particularly useful to the contest results. We may have to update the rules next year.)
Dude, you know how hard that’s gonna be? If next year’s contest takes into account global numbers, I think the outcome will hinge more on luck.
People are saying Cars 2 is on track to make around $65m OW. Callback to Ep. 200 & it seems like Matt Price was right.
Aw c’mon, the challenge will keep us sharp.
My only impetus for suggesting we may go international – which, I should add, I have not even discussed with my partner – is the fact that if we are really going to analyze what’s driving filmmaking decisions in Hollywood, then PIRATES 4 tells a hell of a tale. It will be universally considered a domestic disappointment (even at $220M, which ain’t chump change), but is nevertheless such a worldwide juggernaut that one could conceive of Bruckheimer, Depp et. al. continuing to make these things every few years until they’ve reached PIRATES 10. I mean, why not? If Depp’s getting $50M plus back end participation, and the movies are clearing a billion each time, AND they’re driving business to the theme parks, video game market, and home video… cripes… who WOULDN’T keep making them, critical tirades be damned?
Though there’s still a lot of reviews to be written, it seems Pixar might have it’s first rotten film according to rotten tomatoes. Pixar is the most consistent studio out there right now, and Ive really liked every movies they’ve put out so far. But it seems they got lazy and just did this for a easy cash grab. It’s nice hear people aren’t giving it a pass just because it’s a Pixar movie. And it might just scare them away from do this again.
Also, just saw TF3 is clocking in at 2 hr 37 mins. I guess Bay will never learn “less is more”
So, apparently John Lasseter is human. Cars 2 39% http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/cars-2/
One week late, we’re all about Green Lantern! Latest Mamo is here:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/06/23/mamo-207-the-mamo-lantern/
It’s one thing trying to figure out how all of the US & Canada will react to certain movies. As separated from southern America or middle America, there’s still a bit of shared culture. When you start changing languages and jump to other countries, it seems so much more of a crapshoot as I’m too out of touch with culturally what is going on there.
Unfortunately, Rot right now you are at the very bottom of the score. Tum Tum Tyranus has been in the lead of the contest for quite some time, but has been dropping. I’m #4 but I think that’s because movies like Hangover 2 are in now close to the dollar value that I picked but as it continues to make money, I will get fewer points until I get nothing from that movie.
Curses!
Looking like a $75M weekend for CARS 2.
Precipitous falloff for GREEN LANTERN, too, which will have to wait to cross the $100M line.
http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/first-box-office-cars-2-bad-teacher-look-to-be-overperforming-friday/
Final numbers is 68 mil for Cars 2.
WB is saying they’re going ahead with a GL sequel! What a bunch of liars. 200+ million budget and only 118mil in 2 weekends. They said the same thing when Superman Returns underperformed.
Good memory. I’d forgotten about the Superman Returns promises.
“It’s better, it’s better!” squawked Michael Bay. Well no, not really:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/transformers_dark_of_the_moon/
How bullet-proof are the grosses on TRANSFORMERS 3, even with bad reviews, taking TRANSFORMERS 2 as evidence? Price and I will try to catch up with the flick and record a podcast by the end of the week but we’re warning you… we might like it.
http://www.rowthree.com/2009/06/25/mamo-142-we-loved-transformers/
Why are M.Bay’s films so loooong?
Amusing RT ‘blurb’: “If you’re prepared to sit through two and a half hours of noisy cack to see a grand total of three decent special effects sequences, then I can heartily recommend it.”
I’ll say this though. There is no reviewer on the planet that I line-up better with than Glenn Kenny and he is strangely one of few the fresh tomatoes in those 40 reviews.
“Are critics unfair to director Michael Bay and to his “Transformers” movies? For reasons that are frankly obscure to me, this question has been put forward by some pop culture mavens, and taken seriously by some others. As if Bay and company are entitled to something more than the zillions of dollars these film make, and the ubiquity of their characters as pop culture icons, profit-taking merchandise pieces, and convenience-store special-drink tie-ins. As if they are entitled as well to critical respect, which will, after all, arrive eventually, from the post-graduate academic realm that will someday devote reams of text to the Thousand Plateaus of the Anti-Epistemological Perplex of Optimus Prime, or some such.”
Really though, I want to see a hybrid stage-show/3Dcinematic crossover between Spider Man and Transformers, scored by Bono and choreographed by Julie Taymor, Yuen Woo-Ping and Steven Hawking.
Arachformers: Turn off The Dark of the of Moon.
Transformers is as critic proof as a movie can get, all three movies got reviewed horribly but they all made huge amounts of money. I’m still confident that Transformers 3 will get into the $400 million range.
Actually, there was a hilarious (to me anyway) pass given to the first one for many people who mistook good SFX matting for actual cinema-making….
Hehe. Scott Weinberg on TF3: “It’s the world’s largest drum kit falling down an eternal flight of stairs.”
Related, here’s Empire Magazine on whether the fan mobs aren’t missing the point with their “it’s just a bit of fun” dismissal of critical reactions to the film:
http://www.empireonline.com/empireblogs/empire-states/post/p1094
And Mark Kermode, being his usual expressive self:
That has to be Mark Kermode’s greatest review of all time.
I don’t really like any of Transformers movies. But I don’t like when critics personally attack fans of a certain movie, and call them idiots. My brother is a professor at a USF and one of the smartest guys I know, but he loves these movies for some reason. Yet, according to film critics he’s whats wrong with America and is a moron.
hmmm
Terminator 2 and Terminator 3 I think is a good comparison of a good action movie and a lousy action movie. It’s true that Terminator 3 has some cool action sequences, but it still is a very lousy movie. Terminator 2 is a classic, not just because of the cool groundbreaking FX, but it has good story and good acting. With Terminator 2, you don’t hear people saying “turn your brain off for 2 hours”.
That said, I even found GI Joe a fun movie, despite not being the most intelligent movie. However, there’s something about Michael Bay’s direction that doesn’t work on me what so ever and so that I don’t even find it very fun.
That said I would never insult fans of any series. There’s plenty of movies that I love that people can’t stand, so to each their own.
Gord. You can be the greatest architect on the planet and have abysmal taste in cuisine or music or film. That doesn’t reflect on your intelligence in one circle, but it might in another. These things can (occasionally) be compartmentalized. I work with a lot of pHD Chemists and Physicists and Engineers, many of whom love Transformers (and The Blind Side, Braveheart and The Proposal…)
Certainly T3 has the same ‘boy smashing his toys together’ aspects as Micheal Bay, but I found Jonathon Mostow’s style to have a bit more glee than Michael Bay’s grim-knuckle-down-trying-to-be-too-damn-cool style.
Speaking of the Terminator series, T1>>>T2>>> Michael Bay’s filmography.
Can’t there be a happy medium? I like to think of myself as fairly refined when it comes to movies. I’ve seen probably 50x more movies than the average film goer and probably 100x more foreign film. That said, I enjoyed the heck out of Fast 5. Am I gonna sit here and say it’s the greatest movie ever and call the haters (Matt Gamble) idiots? No, I can recognize the movie’s faults. At the same time, just because the acting is so-so and the story doesn’t always click as well as it should, doesn’t mean it’s worthless. And is stand by rant in a recent Cinecast about how it’s PERFECTLY OK to turn off your brain for a while and just be entertained!!
Anyone who sits on a pedestal and says that people who like Transformers movies are idiots and can’t appreciate or understand good film is FAR worse than the person who actually goes to the movie and simply has a good time. Likewise, for a fan to say a critic has no valid points and is being unfair to the movie for raising concerns is showing their own intellectual shortcomings. GORD, I bet your brother can enjoy the hell out of a movie but also turn around and say, “you know, I liked the movie a lot. It didn’t make a whole lot of sense and there were some characters that didn’t go as deep as they could have, but I still liked it in spite of those things.” Because he’s smart. Commenters on the Empire story calling the author “a fucktard” deserves whatever shitty movie experience they receive.
*EDIT: actually, I can call Gamble an idiot as an exception to my comment above.
I refer to this often as “the plague of unilateralism,” and it seems to be impacting everywhere, though reactions to movies are a good example. Nobody seems satisfied with the notion of a plurality of responses any more, or even further, the idea that every single human being has the right to their own reaction.
Instead, we get lists, rules, and lines in the sand: “If you like X then you are Y.” Or better yet, how many of us have mentioned liking or disliking a movie, only to have our reaction dismissed because of our opinion about another movie? “You didn’t like A, so of course you don’t know what you’re talking about with B.”
The people who put forward these kinds of opinions – and doubtless, we’ve all been guilty of it at one time or another – are turning the universe into a giant sorting game, rather than confronting its wonderful complexity.
I like plurality; as a word, a concept, and a necessity for a country to go to war. That is all.
…Well maybe not all… The above being said, I also reserve the right to silently judge you when you say you liked Aquamarine.
“the idea that every single human being has the right to their own reaction”
but when they venture onto a movie blog and voluntarily give their opinion for public consumption, as something that can be discussed beyond more than “I like that” “me too” than you invite discussion and debate. We all have different takes, and that is good, we can refine our own take through the back and forth of this play we call ‘analysis’.
As much as there is a plague of uniliateralism there is also a plague of isolationism, the “my reaction is impervious to anything outside of it”, and the faintest attempt to challenge it causes walls to be fortified. As much as there should be a plurality of opinions, they shouldn’t also exist as islands, but bump up against each other, provoke, question, engage.
Mostly it is understanding there are aspects that can be challenged, statements of craft pertaining to the film, and aspects that are futile to challenge, one’s emotional response to a film. If you get those two things separated, things go smoothly.
The thing that I find fascinating about the commenters like the ones being mentioned in the Empire piece Matt linked is this – if they’re only out to have a good time and they enjoyed the film, why do they care what some guy on a website writes about it? Why spend the time reading reviews and responding to them, if your point of view is “it’s just a bit of fun and I enjoyed it”? It’s all well and good to argue points, as rot says, and we certainly do it enough here, but if someone’s ultimately just going to go enjoy their bit of fun at the movies, why waste time with critics who disagree with you?
Well said, Andrew. I’m all for disagreeing on films, the discussion between me and my friends after we check out a movie is the best part of the movie going experience. I just don’t think it’s necessary to demean someone for having different taste.
Unless it’s Gamble towards Kurt. Ha
Ha! I just started reading the last bunch of comments on this thread and realised that despite me agreeing with comments like Andrew’s I posted this on my own site just the other day: ” if anyone votes for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, you’re an idiot. ”
A throwaway comment of course, but maybe I should think twice next time
@David the other problem is the literalness of the blogosphere by virtue of the written word, that not even a smiley can properly accentuate meaning… I love rhetoric, I love the play of language, the push and shove of discussion, but I find a lot of that doesn’t translate well without the tone of my voice, the body language, the rapport. I would just as likely make that same statement, David, but Jesus, I don’t MEAN it literally, anymore than I mean if I see another comic book movie I am going to slit my wrists. Embrace rhetoric people, it is not so bad. Loosen up, lighten up, words can never hurt you. My having an opinion about something and doing my best to articulate it and make a case for it, even if using rhetoric, does not negate yours, let it be understood implicitly that all opinions are equally valid, now fight for the fun of it. It is all play, shooting the shit, what we come up with here on Row Three is not going to radically change the world… it is an extension of the pleasures derived from going to the movies, it is letting your opinions stew. To stew in your own juices is icky… mix it up, throw it against the wall, see what sticks.
I realize some people are naturally ultra-sensitive, and I would tend to say the last place they should be then is in a blog environment, because of the lack of nuance the written opinion allows. Everybody wants to play a certain way, and that is fine so long as there is someone they can engage with. To me the least interesting, most depressing exercise is agreement. The world evolves by the dialectic of disagreement, of point and counter-point, refining ideas, expanding the experience, playing out new ways of seeing the same film.
“if anyone votes for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, you’re an idiot.”
Would you feel bad saying that aloud? Probably not, we have probably said something along those lines everyday… for me the rhetorical tone I use in everyday parlance carries over in writing. I certainly don’t need to agree with Gamble but I totally understand that he has his own rhetorical style that is not edited out for sake of writing comments. Better we are projections of ourselves, for better or worse.
Walter Chaw on TF3 and the Michael Bays of the world is hilariously vitriolic:
“the wholesale and semi-graphic murder of innocents by both sides, the way the robots bleed in crimson arterial sprays in this PG-13 movie, that instigates the realization that Transformers: Dark of the Moon (hereafter Transformers: Asshole) is a new low watermark for Bay and this naughty-little-boy franchise that highlights Bay’s misogyny, puerility, and imbecility for all the world to see. Better, it works as a fine illustration of how this industry of ours that I spend a lot of time defending is in bed completely with the Michael Bays of the world, who represent, I think, the money-making potential of any industry that consents to peddle vice and venality to children. Think of the cash a live-action hardcore porno based on the Barbie license would bring in. Let’s get on that, Bay and Zack Snyder, and give out heroin with the purchase of a ticket while we’re at it. The first one’s free, little girl.”
and…
“Transformers holds the distinction of being the first movie this year I’m actually ashamed of. In it, I recognize every failing of we the people, paraded before us as though they were virtues. The country represented by this film is bellicose and ignorant.”
and probably most astute in terms of Bay’s filmography and misogyny:
“It’s too easy to say that Transformers: Asshole is the worst film of the year, because Transformers: Asshole is more dangerous than bad. The world is full of bad movies, after all, to the brim. (Even that golden year, 1939, produced at least 400 pieces of shit no one ever talks about anymore.) But the lasting legacy of this film will be that it redefined the uselessness of the MPAA ratings system; begged the question of how much hatefulness is permissible in our popular entertainment before someone says something;”
I love how critics are trying to one up each other on the Michael Bay bashing. It’s like high school all over again, where the geeks are talking trash behind the athletes backs.
I find that there are more people defending bay than trashing him in my circles. Glad to see Mr. Chaw fighting the good fight.
@Rot Absolutely. Mirroring your comments about rhetoric not always translating to the written word, my previous comment was not supposed to read that I was ashamed of my post or would actually reconsider writing things like that in future. It was meant more as a vaguely sarcastic aside after noticing a surprising coincidence between my recent blog post and this discussion.
But I know exactly where you’re coming from. I can be overly timid with my posts from time to time in fact and don’t always join in when debates get too fiery. When I passionately defend my opinions vocally I swear far more often than I do in written form too
Just saw TF3 last night at a midnight screening. The movie it’s self was ok, but trust me the last hour is some of the best action sequences I’ve ever seen. It’s worth the price of a ticket alone. The biggest improvement was that you can actually tell the bad robots and good robots apart.
As someone who (barely) enjoyed Transformers 2 because it seemed to subvert any prevalent ideas about what makes a good movie (although the people behind it probably neither knew nor care), I am looking slightly forward to Transformers 3. To me, it’s a hell of a lot more of an event than Pirates, Green Lantern, Thor, Captain America and whatever else. These movies rile people up, they give young boys hard-ons and old men hard-ons that they feel they’re past.
One of my theories about film that I formed early on, was that the two most important things in a blockbuster was the music and the visual effects. These movies score a 10/10 for visual effects for me, and probably around a 7/10 on score, and that saves alot. I mean when you really get down to it, wouldn’t you rather see asteroids crashing through aircraft carriers than somebody shooting a big gun?
Surprising no one, Transformers 3 looks on target to hit $200M in seven days or less.
http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/transformers-3-hosting-3000-midnights-and-2700-sneaks-for-exclusive-3d-tuesday/
Well, there is no accounting for taste…
Well that’s the short answer. An extremely large group of people spend an extremely large quantity of money on these movies for a reason, and dismissing it under “bad taste” might be a bit too easy.
I don’t think my fondness for Transformers 2 has anything to do with whatever those people are getting out of these movies, so I’m genuinely curious what it is about these films that not only inspires all the spend-happiness, but also the rigid, fanatical defences of the film and Bay in the critical community – and by “in the critical community” I of course mean “in the comments of negative reviews of Transformers films.”
I have no issue with looking at something like TF2 as MAMO! did, meaning that it is a curiously non-narrative yet over-plotted stimulation fest that seems to transcend normal movie rules. But I’ve talked to a far number of people that treat these films like they are masterful, deep, engaging stories, which frankly completely baffles me and makes me mad at collective humanity in the same way that watching AGORA makes one depressed at collective humanity.
“a curiously non-narrative yet over-plotted stimulation fest that seems to transcend normal movie rules” – FINALLY someone has concisely explained what I liked about that movie. Praise you, Kurt.
All my tired brain could come up with on the Cinecast last night to describe the good parts of Trans3 was… “cool.”
Will be recording the Transformers 3 Mamo shortly, but in the meantime, my review:
http://tederick.com/reviews/transformers-3.shtml
Transformers 3 podcast!
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/07/01/mamo-208-dark-of-the-mamo/
@Matthew Fabb – Yeah, the only reason I’m in the top 3 right now is because most of my picks are out. I really need Cap & Cowboys to underperform ($30m OW).
Dark of the Moon is estimated to make 97m opening weekend with a total of 161.7m since its release. It’s lagging behind Revenge of the Fallen’s 108m opening weekend and 200m 5 day gross. Still gonna make a lot of money but most likely won’t reach the 400m mark.
Hollywood reporter says TF3 should reach 405 mil worldwide by Monday.
To all the critics: I guess the rest of the world is as dumb as the Americans for liking TF3.
@Patrick – Of course, I meant domestic. But yeah, worldwide, anything goes.
Looking over some stuff & I’m thinking this may be the final top 10 of the summer.
1.Tranny 3
2.Potter 7B
3.Hangover 2
4.Pirates 4
5.Cars 2
6.Thor
7.Bridesmaids
8.Panda 2
9.Zookeeper
10.X-Men: First Class
Yup, I have no faith in Cap or Cowboys. Less so in Cowboys which I GUARANTEE is gonna bomb.
Actually now I think If Cowboys & Aliens is any good, after this summer worth of disappointments it could do very well. I think it’s in a position to be like Tropic Thunder a few years ago
Potter is going to crush TF3.
CLOMP CLOMP CLOMP
Hear that? That’s me stomping on these birds, getting your crow juice ready for ya. ; ) Hope you’re thirsty.
Every week or so I look at that Google docs list to see where everyone is at and there’s shifts of people going up and down. Yet strangely enough I continue to stay in 4th place, week after week.
For midnights Potter is currently outpacing TF3 by a massive margin with over a week of sales still to go. TF3 also doesn’t have the massive advantage Potter does when it comes to early corporate buys. On top of that, Potter’s ticket sales for midnights is currently outpacing TF3′s total online sales by over 5:1.
Its going to be a bloodbath. $450 mil domestic might be conservative.
Oh yeah, the corporate buys also aren’t calculated as part of the tracked advanced sales, as they aren’t announced until the following day, which means Potter stands a very good chance of shattering Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158 million.
Dang!!! We will see, though, we will see. For now, I’m leaving the crow juice in the fridge.
This last Harry Potter seems to be a movie that fans *NEED* to see as soon as humanly possible. I think it’s going to have a huge opening weekend but then sharp drop offs the following weekends.
Hmmm… this actually got me thinking about my week and if I can manage to go see a midnight screening of HP7P2.
Yeah, but if you have a $160+ million opening weekend you can have massive drop offs and still coast to $350+ domestic. If the movie is good then the film is going to steamroll everything in its path. Paramount should be very nervous about Captain America.
If Captain America is any good I don’t think Paramount will have to worry. A good example is when Avatar and Sherlock Holmes came out around the same time. Avatar beat it initially, but Sherlock went on to make lots of money.
On the same note, all the reports from the Cap screening were that its the best Marvel studios film yet. I don’t know if that is saying much.
“all the reports from the Cap screening were that its the best Marvel studios film yet. I don’t know if that is saying much.”
BINGO. Is it as formulaic as the Hulk(Norton)/Ironman/Daredevil set?
“all the reports from the Cap screening were that its the best Marvel studios film yet. I don’t know if that is saying much.”
really faint praise.
“BINGO. Is it as formulaic as the Hulk(Norton)/Ironman/Daredevil set?”
That should be Hulk(Norton)/Iron Man/Thor, since Daredevil wasn’t Marvel Studios.
That said, despite being slightly formulaic, I think they are all still decent movies. The general public certainly regars the first Iron Man in pretty high regards and if the Captain America is better then I think they can end up with a decent hit. Still being so close to Harry Potter will hurt them but at the same time I think the promotion from SDCC will help them (or at least give them lots of advertising).
Yes, Sherlock Homes did okay despite Avatar, but I think it could have made a lot more money had it not had to compete with Avatar.
As a fan of Harry Potter, I would love the movie to be the #1 summer movie, but I don’t see it happening. I imagine most reviews will point out how it’s really is the second half of a movie and that you really need to watch part 1 to enjoy part 2. Raise a barrier like that and no matter how big it will keep some of the audience away.
Domestically, $317 million is the biggest audience that a Harry Potter movie has found (the first one) and I can’t imagine this last movie no matter how good will bring in new audiences.
I know this: I had ZERO interest in Harry Potter. But after seeing the trailer, starting Friday I’m going to go through each Potter film in succession so I’m ready to see the newest one in theaters (in 2D). Netflix queue is lined up and ready to go.
I was wandering around town today and was absolutely flabbergasted by the scope and reach of the Potter advertising, everywhere I went. I’m with Gamble: this flick is poised to eat the rest of the summer alive.
For a franchise that has a “hanging out” movie in the series(Half-Blood Prince), I completely agree with Fabb. The atypical pacing of the Potter films (which I love) has soured a large junk of the mainstream movie goers. Yes, it will get a little bump but it still won’t be enough to beat out Transformers.
I bet that you won’t finsh the series.
Yeah maybe not. It is quite the endeavor, but we’ll see.
Andrew’s reaction is precisely why I don’t think this last Harry Potter will suddenly find a new audience. Everyone knows it’s the last of a long series and even if it looks cool, few will want to jump into it without seeing the previous movies. These movies have an audience of around $300 million and it will get a bit of a bump for 3D, but I don’t think it’s going to jump to new people who haven’t seen a Harry Potter movie, or who haven’t seen part 1 of HP7.
It’s a lot of movie-watching to play catchup. I’ll sit down with the entire series some day (probably with my kids), but I’m certainly not ready to do so this year.
Andrew, Dumplings is streaming in HD on Netflix. You have no excuses.
?
I’ve seen dumplings. I watched Iron Man 2 (distractedly) this evening though. The first 20 minutes is pretty good. Then… Snore.
good example is when Avatar and Sherlock Holmes came out around the same time. Avatar beat it initially, but Sherlock went on to make lots of money.
Sherlock wasn’t competing with Avatar for 3D screens. Captain America could get fucked.
Also, you guys are seriously undervaluing the power of group think in popular culture. People hate being left out when something is this huge.
I completely forgot that Captain America is in 3D.
Not for me.
“Also, you guys are seriously undervaluing the power of group think in popular culture. People hate being left out when something is this huge.”
When my parents – MY PARENTS – are saying they want to see Harry Potter, having never seen any of the films OR read any of the books, you’ve officially reached pop-cultural synergy beyond what money can buy.
(Granted, they’re gonna be confused as fuck.)
Early Weekend Estimates
1.Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $48,000,000
2.Horrible Bosses – $28,000,000
3.Zookeeper – $22,500,000
4.Cars 2 – $15,800,000
5.Bad Teacher – $9,500,000
I’m glad I was wrong about Zookeeper. Sometimes people surprise me and do the right thing.
I walked out of Horrible Bosses. First movie I’ve walked out of in around 10-11 years. But er… the last one was Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
– and it was mostly because I was tired. Worst movie I’ve seen in 2011, even worse than the Hangover 2.
The film that I am really interested in its box office performance is Tintin. It is nearly impossible to predict its box office numbers… I can see the film doing well, doing okay, being a minor failure, to be a complete bomb.
Judging by North American awareness of the property and the dodgey mo-cap tech, I’m thinking it’ll be a massive bomb, even with the strange populist-nerd cocktail of Steven Spielberg, Peter Jackson and EdgarWright/JoeCornish
I dunno, we haven’t seen what the marketing machine is going to do with that thing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not thinking Avatar, but if the ad men could convince a whole nation (for a single week) that TRON was their favourite movie of all time from when they were kids, they might be able to swing a couple hundred million bucks for Tintin.
No show this week, because what would we talk about? Honestly, it’s just nice to have a week off.
Chili?
Chili was very good, thanks.
MAMO is, hands down, the best fed podcast on the net.
And I’m with Kurt, right now, Tin Tin seems like a bomb.
Transformers 3 is now the number 1 movie of the summer and year, causing a shift in points and GE Hale & Tum Tum Tyranus are now tied for first place, while I continue the long running streak of being in 4th place.
As for a Potter update, theatres across the country are running into an issue for the midnights. Not enough screens. That’s right, entire buildings are being sold out.
Haven’t seen anything like this since, well, ever.
“Something Wicked this way Comes?”
*Pan over to random black student from PoA, who looks like a young Notorious B.I.G. (I call him Wallace Grim).
Seriously, I hope he returns for a cameo in the final film. I would mark out so hard.
Friends with Benefits & The Smurfs are now my 2 sellswords. I want them to chip away as much as they can from Cap & Cowboy’s grosses. I have no excuse but based on Gamble’s positive-ish review, rooting for Friends with Benefits is not as heinous as rooting for The Smurfs, which is just ass backwards. This contest is evil. : )
You’d be better off rooting for Crazy, Stupid, Love IMO.
With a cast that consists of Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Julianne Moore, Marisa Tomei, & Kevin Bacon, I’m baffled that I haven’t heard of Crazy, Stupid, Love. Add this to my cabal of hitmen.
Crazy, Stupid, Love looks so good. Ryan Gosling’s abs are amazing. This is the first time I’ve found him attractive.
local cinema has sold out all bar 6 seats for over 30 sessions between now and Sunday night (2D & 3D) HP8 headed for $400m by the end of month I BET
And it’s just takes me one review to suck out all the enthusiasm I had for HP7P2:
http://www.aintitcool.com/node/50350
I still really want to see it, but I’ll skip the midnight showing. I won’t give any spoilers away, but I’m quite of speechless in the approach they took with this last movie.
I’ve liked Gosling since Young Hercules.
People are saying 140m OW / 350m Total for HP8
And here… we… go…
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/final-harry-potter-already-wrecking-records/
Two days BEFORE release, HP8 has already bagged $32 million.
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=79789
Fears that it will sell out (for hardcore fans) drive pre-sales. WB has a wonderful self-fulfilling prophecy (see also: Twilight) on their hands!
Anyone ever doubt that this was going to be the HIGH GROSSING MONSTER of this summer?
I kinda wanta sorta agree with Armond White on this one, although I’m guilty of having only watched Episode 1 and Episode 3 of the HP Franchise:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — Armond White
“Now that the Harry Potter series is over, maybe the truth can be realized: This has been the dullest franchise in the history of movie franchises. Each episode following the boy wizard and his pals from Hogwarts Academy as they fight assorted villains has been indistinguishable from the others. Aside from the gloomy imagery, the series’ only consistency has been its lack of excitement and ineffective use of special effects—all to make magic unmagical, to make action seem inert.
Billed as HP7, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has Harry confront his origins and his very existence. Near death by a whammy from Lord Voldemort (a howling, noseless Ralph Fiennes), Harry and the audience are subjected to a series of family-heritage and backstory montages that don’t clarify anything. It’s simply a cavalcade of badly used British actors, the Mike Leigh stable (Jim Broadbent, Gary Oldman*, David Thewlis, Imelda Staunton) being especially disgraced—all apparently just to pay the rent.
David Yates is credited as director of the final four features, but his work has been as poor as what Chris Columbus began and even Alfonso Cuarón’s, whose steadicam made no difference (how can you make “dark” darker?). Yates is what’s known as a shooter. He gets it in the camera, but he provides no style or feeling. He has competence but no talent; his inability to inflect this story with the slightest idiosyncrasy exposes the enterprise as sheer commercial hackwork—although of a high budgetary order.
The precedent was already set by Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings debacle—unintelligible fantasy epics that people went to out of consumerist habit and left unable to recount or fondly recall. Jackson’s fantasy overload laid the groundwork for mistaking F/X for content. Yates’ relentlessly pedestrian visual choices allow the franchise to emphasize F/X—the “magic” is in other peoples’ hands—so that crucial connecting dramatic scenes remain visually banal and feel hastily executed. The addition of 3D only makes Yates’ poor compositions more noticeable—the imbalance juts out. It doesn’t help that audiences are so accustomed to TV banality that they no longer watch or read movies visually; they simply follow dialogue and extol the CGI. They’re as helpless as Yates at discovering Harry Potter’s mythic roots. Part 7 finds Harry in his own Gethsemane, but Yates, Rowling or somebody lost that cultural, spiritual thread.
Perhaps the die was cast when Rowling vetoed the idea of Spielberg directing the series; she made sure the series would never be mistaken for a work of art that meant anything to anybody—just ridiculously profitable cross-promotion for her books. (Sadly, Stephenie Meyer and Twilight’s producers seem to be following this model.) The Harry Potter series might be anti-Christian (or not), but it’s certainly the anti-James Bond series in its refusal of wonder, beauty and excitement. No one wants to face that fact. Now, thankfully, they no longer have to.”
*Has Gary Oldman ever been in a Mike Leigh Movie? I’m thinking he meant Timothy Spall.
I have seen them all and I agree that it IS the dullest franchise in movie history, made all the more dull by the sheer length of its run. I even read a few of the books to see if I was missing something, and I found nothing there either. That the last several of these have consisted of Harry and his nemesis having wand battles, and finally, Deathly Hallows Pt.2 is the one that “ends it all”… with what pray tell, another wand battle?
How about another Quidditch match for good measure? Holy fuck.
for the record, I don’t see these movies willingly.
“I kinda wanta sorta agree with Armond White on this one”
…this is the movie critic version of “Hitler had some good ideas”
The statement is just flat on its face stupid though in a world with 5 Fast and Furious movies, like 10? Jason movies, 5 Final Destination movies, etc, etc. Armand is just looking for attention again and it looks like he found it… and he’ll find more allies as HP gets 97% on RT and the people who take that as meaningful get defensive and aggressive against HP in response. “How dare the wizard movie outscore Lord Malick!”
I think Peter Travers’ glowing review is hilarious though, since I remember when the first ones came out he was leading the anti-Potter charge with some serious gusto.
I haven’t seen the last Harry Potter movie, but even though I am a huge fan of the books, the Armond White quote completely sums up my feelings on the boring films. As movies, they’re utter shit. As visual representations of the books, some of them barely scrape by, but most are useless snoozefests.
i ESPECIALLY agree with the Peter Yates comments… I think the last 4 potter movies could work as a definition of what a jobber does.
HP7P2 is the weaker of the last two films, I went mainly to see TDKR trailer (which won’t land till Friday) but I think Yates is a good jobber, he presents a very well produced film that unlike HP5/6 is actually about Harry Potter (maybe just reflecting the books) though to care really about this whole good vs evil, friendship vs power, yo its better than the LOTR adaptation but has nothing on TDK/XMEN ect.
I think HP8 will eclipse TDK US weekend record and make about $170m, worldwide it will probably hit $500m by Monday (given it opened here on a Tuesday night?!) will also break WW weekend UK & AUS opening records, I was at a 9:30 screening on a Wednesday morning in Canberra SOLD OUT. I had it down for $390m, how meek was I! anybody have it down for $450m plus?
If Peter Yates directed the last Harry Potter, I’m totally on board (love me some Krull). But I think David Yates did so I’ll pass.
Gah!
Dullest film franchise ever? Not even close. I can think of many other movie properties that deserve that claim. Sleepaway Camp comes to mind right awau (I hate those movies).
@Goon: Fast 4 & 5 are solid. F13 Part 3 is one of the best slashers ever made. F13 parts 6, X, & FVJ are great. F13 parts 4,7,9, & remake are all good. Final Destination 2 & 3 are also good.
Hi folks, we’ll be recording our Harry Potter show this Sunday and posting it that night.
As you probably already know, the Thursday midnights were good for about $43M and change, shattering previous records, and the film is currently enjoying an unimaginable 97% on the Tomatometer.
Reminder that Phantom Menace had a 90% RT score upon its debut. But I’ll concede that 97% is impressive, considering that the review pool is probably almost 200 reviewers, and Armond White only counts as one.
Went and saw HP8 at the midnight show this morning. And gotta say that I really didn’t like it, and thought it was really boring. I don’t think its a bad movie just more middle of the road, 97% seems extremely high. I guess I just don’t get “it”.
So I went to a 9:20 pm screening tonight and got there about 50 minutes before the movie started to make sure I got good seats. However, I really didn’t need to have done that. I could have shown up 5 minutes before it started and gotten good seats as about 1/3 of the theatre was empty. Even lines for other screenings while having a number of people show up really early were pretty small. No sold out screenings at the theatre from what I could see. Now there was a new screening every 50 minutes or so, but the same has been done for other big movies with it really crowded on opening night. So my theory is that so much of the opening night crowd shifted to the midnight showings. There were a large number of screenings at that AMC theatre last night. The audience there didn’t even see that excited, clapping or cheering at parts that you might normally get on an opening night.
Well that definitely wasn’t the case around my neck of the woods tonight. Abject Pottermonium. Packed houses. Cheering and whooping. Haven’t seen crowds so large, and so amped, in years.
I felt a bit let down from missing the packed clapping and cheering crowds. I like seeing movies with enthusiastic crowds like that. I was on the edge last night of going to see a midnight screening, but choose to get a decent night’s sleep instead. Perhaps I should have gone to the midnight screening.
Early Weekend Estimates
1. Harry Potter 8 – $180M
2. Transformers 3 – $21M
3. Horrible Bosses – $15M
4. Zookeeper – $11M
5. Cars 2 – $8.5M
I wonder if there has ever been so wide a gulf between the first place film and the second place film.
Wow. Potter 1st Day: $92 million. Just. Wow. Comparatively Transformers Dark of the Moon made $37 million.
I suspect that figure included a $5m bump from those like me who caught up on series given critical/fan praise, along with HP1 is only 2nd one I saw on big scr (in 2D), also ther must B a $1m bump from those after TDKR peek, thought the film was production/mood wise very strong, lacking mainly in character and dialogue, and the stacks? Well I think films 2/4/5 really let down the saga as a whole.
Part 1 screenings do nothing for earnings.
POTTER is indeed the 3-day-weekend record-breaker with $163M. Not the $180M some were expecting, but what’s $17M between friends?
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/final-harry-potter-already-wrecking-records/
FYI The Potter link on the Mamo.ca site is broken
Anyone know what’s Cap is tracking at? Is it expected to do Thor numbers for opening weekend?
Wow — forget Green Latern — Winnie the Pooh is the biggest box office failure of the summer so far.
Thanks for the heads up, Goon, I’ve fixed the link.
@Brittany: People are saying 57m (OW) / 160m (Total) but they’ve been wrong before…
New Mamo! Deathly Hallows 2! Spirited debate!
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/07/17/mamo-209-harry-potter-and-the-deathly-mamo-part-two/
C’mon Hangover II, make 3 more million please. It’s gonna be the deciding factor on whether or not Toro gets 20 bonus points or just 5 bonus points.
Question to Matt Brown & Matt Price.
If you have a movie at 250m and it makes 255.2m, do you still get the 10 bonus points awarded for being 5 million away from the actual gross? I say no, cause technically they are not 5 million away. They are slightly above it.
I’d say no. $5M is the range for the bonus points. $5.2M is not within the range.
Cool cool cool, it’s what I thought but just double checking to make sure.
What would be a good take for Cap to insure a sequel? I saw a screening of it yesterday, and its already one of my favorite superhero movies ever.
I think at least 65m OW would be a safe bet to insure a sequel (that’s what Thor did).
If it makes around 55m OW, it would have to have strong word of mouth (like First Class) for the studios to risk a sequel.
Look at 2008′s Incredible Hulk which had a budget of 150m & made 55m OW. We aren’t gonna see a Hulk sequel anytime soon. Captain America has a similar production budget & probably has a higher advertising budget.
Captain America was absolutely incredible. I know a few people here who may not care to see it because they just don’t care about comic book movies, but this one I say give a chance. Has some of the Rocketeer vibe going on and even Indiana Jones… many times it has more Spielberg touches than Super 8 did, and they ring more true as well. The script is possibly the best I’ve seen in a superhero movie, lots of great moments and one liners/laughs. Just overall transcends the comic genre more than the other big name superhero flicks, just a strong adventure/action film. It finally ignited some excitement for me to see the Avengers, and I think I’ve been openly cynical about that project for a while now.
I will definitely see Cap again, and I think its my favorite film of the summer, easily.
Well Joe Johnston has been a Spielberg fanboy since before JJ Abrams was writing scripts! Makes sense.
It has a killer Raiders reference in the opening scene as well, but subtle enough that most people won’t even get it.
Raiders reference in Winnie the Pooh also. Just sayin.
And yes – Capt America is the one comic book movie project I’ve been interested in.
Totally agree with Goon.
In my opinion its the most complete summer blockbuster.
I am at a loss at how this has worse reviews than either Thor or X-Men (and I loved X-Men). Is it some reaction to the Cap character as some proto-fascist thing? Is this style divisive? This thing has everything.
It will probably end up at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t bad. Especially for a Joe Johnston and Chris Evans film, who both critics get off on bashing. But if you look at the bad reviews it seems like most don’t how to take the pulpy comic book feels to it. Which is one of the main reasons I Love it.
I’m not quite as ecstatic about Cap as many others seem to be, though I did like it. I think it’s about as good as Iron Man and Thor but hardly a vast improvement over either. I had a good time. But then, I always have a good time at these things.
Gamble – I’d call it the best Raiders reference since Raiders actually. Loved it, and love thinking these 2 movies take place in the same universe.
I’m right there with Matt Brown, I liked it but it’s as formulaic as Thor & Iron Man. One thing that pissed me off though, and this has been building for a long time, but I’m so sick of the generic scores in these super hero movies. Can we please get some actual good music with some identity to accentuate the movie.
Perfect example, Hans Zimmer’s score for Sherlock Holmes. It added so much to the film and now, with all these lazy scores, I appreciate it even more.
Very early weekend estimates have Cap at $66M and Harry Potter dropping a meteoric 80% for a second-place $50M. Likely to change, but by how much and in what direction?
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/captain-america-opens-to-4m-midnights/
There goes everyone’s theory on HP8 making 400 million out the window. And were reminded once again HP8 has it’s audience and that’s it.
Good for Cap! Also I think that being the first superhero movie and Branagh’s name attached is the only reason Thor got better reviews.
“I liked it but it’s as formulaic as Thor & Iron Man”
It’s the details. The dialogue is much sharper and funnier than this. The jokes in Thor are absolute garbage in comparison to the barbs in here, and the serious dialogue is better as well. Even the love story angle is pretty well done. Would anyone dare argue the relationship between Thor/Portman or Iron Man/Pepper Potts is better than this?
Cap opening weekend is the best out of the four superhero flicks with 65.8 beating Thor’s 65.7
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/box-office-captain-america-delivers-strong-ending-superhero-summer-658m-29402
Cap’s numbers seem incredibly fishy. I’m guessing when actual numbers come in it finishes behind Thor.
Marvel Studios continues their streak.
I’m sorry, but $65.8 for Cap? Which just happens to be .1 higher than Thor? Bull-fucking-shit.
Good for Marvel, they had a strong summer, but that kind of numbers nonsense just demeans the effort.
Ok, someone else write the 500th comment on this thread. Matthew and I really appreciate the summer-long conversation here, one and all.
Does it matter what the exact number is? The big thing is that neither flop and both will make their money back which is a win for marvel. Now they won’t have to worry about Avengers.
I’m happy for Joe Johnston & Marvel but goddamn it, there goes any chance of me winning. Ugh, why did I pick Super 8 over Cap? Oh well, next year will be mine.
about have or in with a shot of getting exact totals? I think I might have a chance with both Harry Potter & Captain America now, provided the latter one is a good film I guess.
Meanwhile, Green Lantern crawls to $113 million on a $200mil+ budget.
Yeah, that number is so that Marvel can have push the Monday newspaper story that they have the #1 superhero movie opening so far of 2011. Still they have success while DC needs to wonder what the help they are doing beyond the Dark Knight Rises.
I think GE Hale, Neil Edgington, & Aaron are going to be the only ones to have 9 out of the top 10. Just an observation. Doesn’t necessarily mean they’re the clear cut top 3 as it doesn’t account for positioning or the other bonus points. Toro will have 8 out of the top 10 (like most of us) but his 20 bonus points for Hangover II (if it stays below 255m) & his great positioning puts him as one the top contenders.
Oh yeah, all of that is based on the fact that I think the rest of the summer movies not released yet (Cowboys, Rise, etc.), will not make it in the top 10.
CONGRATS on this thread crossing the 500 comment limit, only done twice in the 4 year R3 history (See Also: CATFISH CONSPIRACIES).
In other news – 72% Drop for HB7b! Oi, that is a fanbase who all went out to see the film in the 1st week and are done with the film.
Despite that massive drop I will be interested to see what happens week to week with HP7 pt 2. I think since everyone knew it woudl be crazy at first this is a title with a lot of people waiting for the first few weeks to pass, and I think unlike a lot of the Potter films this is more likely to have repeat business, even if only from Potter fans under a “this is our last chance!” mindset.
I’m not spending the energy writing up a review, but here are some scattered thoughts on Cap:
Captain America does indeed suffer from the ‘Marvel Script-o-Tron’ approach of all their origin stories following the same story beats. Sure they have all the little ‘connect the story to other Marvel properties’ and some help from the great period design (when the DECO typesetting and leather and steel uniforms are not being overwhelmed by the goofy retro-future-Nazi-HYDRA-tech, the last thing this movie needed was space ships and laser guns), but this isn’t enough to distract that Captain America is just another Paint-By-Numbers Marvel Entry with very obvious supporting characters. Tommy Lee Jones and Hugo Weaving can do their own-typecast signature roles, and they do. And yet they are still the films greatest asset.
I need to revisit THE ROCKETEER, a film I very much liked and has aged well in my memory, but Johnson can’t quite break out of the Marvel mold this time around. I fear that I won’t even like ROCKETEER anymore. I seem to be suffering from the mentality that I can’t quite unlock my inner 12 year old anymore.
We’ll see if Joss Whedon can do any better saddled with the whole Super Team.
I rewatched the Rocketeer last night. I love the Rocketeer. Captain America is better than the Rocketeer.
Kurt, you need to let your inner 12 yr self come out in play once in a while. Not every action film has to be dark, brooding genre pic.
Scott Pilgrim has shown that SDCC buzz doesn’t mean anything, but Cowboys and Aliens certainly has that really good SDCC buzz about it. Universal certainly paid good money for that buzz, with ads all over San Diego like no other movie. Jon Favreau mentioned in his panel with Guillermo del Toro that he’s certainly nervous about releasing the film, as he realizes that some people love the concept but there’s a chunk of people who still don’t get it. He joked that the trailer plays before Transformers and there’s certain people who have a hard time suspending their disbelief for mixing westerns with sci-fi elements, while they are then okay with robots transforming into cars and other vehicles for the next 2 hours after the trailer.
He compared the movie making process to creating a golem. He said you spend a lot of time, working with a group of people on this thing and then finally it’s let out into the world and the golem takes a life of it’s own. The movie no longer belongs to him but to the audience and it be a wonderful thing or just trash stuff before sinking down.
The Captain America show is posted! And we mention you guys!
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/07/26/mamo-210-man-on-fire/
Buzz, schmuzz.
Currently Smurfs is tracking better than Crazy, Stupid, Love AND Cowboys & Aliens.
I think I might vomit.
Looks like Cowboys & Aliens is poised to go the way of Green Lantern, with a potential $40M weekend:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/first-box-office-cowboys-aliens-40m-smurfs-29m-crazy-stupid-love-18m/
I just hope Captain America does slide to far.
It gets worse and worse – looks like the Smurfs have a better than average chance to take the weekend away from Cowboys & Aliens.
Early Weekend Estimates according to Boxoffice.com
1.The Smurfs – $36m
2.Cowboys & Aliens – $35.5m
3.Captain America – $25.5m
4.Harry Potter 8 – $22.5m
5.Crazy, Stupid, Love – $18.5m
Wow, Cap only made 25.5m (61% drop) on its 2nd weekend. To put that into context, Thor made 34.7m on its 2nd weekend.
Yep everything’s sinking like a stone now. Summer’s over. Cap will not outperform Thor, as I have long been arguing.
That’s awful for Cowboys & Aliens. I heard the budget was $160mil. Daniel Craig is not a box office draw. Dream House will probably bomb too. Aronofsky is somewhere laughing his ass off. Best alien film out now is “Attack the Block”.
Hell yeah, chavs vs. aliens
I am worried about the domestic box office of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. A 100 milllion dollar R rated film released during the busy Christmas season. Interesting…
Similar to Benjamin Button which cost 150m to make & made 127m domestic back. Granted, Dragon Tattoo is a popular series, so you never know…
One of the movies it’s up against is MI4 which moved its release date up because they’re scared of Sherlock 2 and rightfully so.
So is this overall one of the worst summers for box office in general? Overall consumer spending in the US has dropped, so that may play a part into how much people go to the movies.
I have gone considerably less myself, but then I have a kid now so that does play a part.
Captain America is making less than Thor on the weekends, but then is making more than Thor on the weekdays:
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=summer11comicvs.htm
I guess that’s the advantage of a movie being released in the summer, compared to a movie being released in May like Thor did when kids & teenagers are still in school.
So Captain America might still make more than Thor when all is said and done and become the top performing superhero movie of the summer.
HOLY SHIT! REVELATION!!!!!!!!
Was looking at the rankings, wondering why I’m still in the top 3 and just realized that movies not in the top 10 still get you points. For some reason, I was under the impression that only films in the top 10 get you points so I read the rules and yup, I was mistaken. Nowhere does it say that. THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING. FUCKING AWESOME! Basically means my Green Lantern & Super 8 picks are giving me 16 points as opposed to the 0 points I assumed. I’m still in it, baby! YIPPEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!
To answer Rot’s question, everything seems lower, but the according to Box Office Mojo, this summer is up 4% from last summer at this point:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3235&p=.htm
June was down, but July was up. Perhaps just more event movies that are spread out in 2011? Also I imagine this year there are more 3D screenings, bringing in more money that way, so I wouldn’t be surprised if attendance was still slightly down.
I absolutely adored Rise of the Planet of the Apes (should’ve just been called Rise of the Apes).
The first part of the movie is the most flawed so my 5/5 is in spite of it. You can nitpick the logistics of Franco keeping this thing in his home for so long, and lots of other little things.
But as Caesar evolves and becomes the main character, and it becomes obvious that the apes are the good guys rising above oppression, that this thing really takes off. It takes it’s time letting Caesar grow as a leader and react to his situation, it makes real character out of the secondary apes, and the action is absolutely engaging and well plotted. The villain humans are cartoony but in a great 90s blockbuster sort of way.
Tonally once it gets moving parts remind me of Spielberg, some shots seemed like Shyamalan, and it even at times tonally felt like the line between goofy genre and seriousness that District 9 had once it turned to action. I wanted to stand up and applaud as Cesar comes rolling in riding a horse!
I have not had this much fun in the theater this year. Seeing this at this time too was so amazing, seeing Project Nim and then Attack the Block before it.. what a triple bill of ape action.
Superb. Su fucking perb.
Looks like Ryan Reynolds is this summer’s biggest loser. Two duds in a row plus a divorce.
Good Apes review: http://www.badassdigest.com/2011/08/05/movie-review-rise-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-is-very-very-good
Possible 50m opening for Rise of Apes. http://www.deadline.com/2011/08/rise-of-planet-of-apes-1-25m-midnights/
Nice, it looks like Apes could make up to 53-55 million. With a budget of only 90 mil its going to clean up.
Now I’m really interested what Rubert Wyatt does next.
DEATHLY HALLOWS 2 is now the third-highest-grossing film of all time, and the highest-grossing film not made by James Cameron.
In the domestic market, it’s also a day or two away from eclipsing the execrable TRANSFORMERS 3 as the top-grossing film of the summer (and the year).
Congratulations to all who correctly guessed that HARRY POTTER would claim the #1 slot in the box office contest!
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
I do believe there is audio evidence (right in MAMO #200) of me proclaiming HP7 PT2 as the eventual winner.
You’re welcome…
Uh, of course, I made no further predictions, so I expect my bragging rights don’t really extend past my snotty comment above. B-)
Yup, congrats to anyone who picked Potter to be the top grosser, especially after many of us were so adamant that Transformers would be #1. Pat yourselves on the back, we were wrong & you guys were dead on.
RotPotA will possibly replace First Class in the top 10. That’s gonna take a lot of my points down a notch. Ouch!
Very Happy with Rise of the Apes. It has a few stumbles at the end, and a lot of boring human characters, but man, WETA really did the job on this one, and the film plays like a big-scope blockbuster version of PROJECT NIM, which is a good thing in my book. Finally ‘opening credits at the end of the film’ that make sense. More on this on the upcoming cinecast.
Can anyone comment on how many elements and plot points of CONQUEST OF THE PLANET OF THE APES is used in RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES? It’s been ages since I saw the Apes sequels and the only one I really remember in any way was the first sequel with the NY Subway station.
There have been three $1Billion+ worldwide grossing films in 2011. That is 3/10 films that have ever done this, 30%, in the same year. Oi.
Kurt, there are some plot points in this article, but mostly easter eggs. http://www.ifc.com/news/2011/08/rise-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-easter-eggs.php
Amazingly, I caught most of them myself, and I’m not even a huge fan of the franchise.
What is it with Sci-Fi movies calling their space ships ICARUS, this is simply never going to happen in real life, even scientists are somewhat superstitious and wouldn’t use the name ironically. But both Sunshine and Planet of the Apes bear a space craft with that moniker, and in one of the films best gags about the futility of conquering the sun, the second ship in Sunshine is called ICARUS 2!
it should have been Icarus 2: The Revenge
The potential summer top ten ranking, dollar values not final?:
1. Harry Potter 7.2 – $360+
2. Transformers 3 – $350+
3. Hangover 2 – $250+
4. Pirates 4 – $240
5. Cars 2 – $185+
6. Thor – $180
7. Captain America – $175+
8. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $165
9. X-Men First Class – $145
10. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $125+
If so, kudos to my podcasting buddy for putting Planet of the frickin’ Apes in his tenth-place spot (even if overvaluing it a bit). Never saw that coming in a million years.
Icarus 2: Your Sister is an Icarus
@Matt Brown: You forgot Bridesmaids at #8. First Class & Rise are gonna duke it out for the #10 slot.
I’ve yet to see Rise of the Planet of the Apes, but going by the trailer, it’s quite different than the Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, which mostly focusing on the survival of Caesar. Caesar is the child of Cornelius and Zira and showed intelligence from birth but had to hide it to avoid execution. I think it’s not until the very last act that the apes start to rebel. Even then it ends on a more peaceful ending seeming as if they could possibly co-exist. Although that was after the original ending of the apes becoming the masters while they beat and killed humans, tested negatively on test audiences. A lot of the riots at the end were filmed to mirror race riots seen in the US.
Thanks Tum Tum, you’re correct, I completely forgot Bridesmaids was a May release. I retract my praise of Mr. Price – unlikely that Planet of the Apes will figure in the Top Ten now.
Amusingly, the four people tied for last place in this contest are Row Three Contributors, and the 10 (!) people in the lead are row three readers…
So what’s the deal with the apes? We talk turkey (meaning Ryan Reynolds’ career) in the newest Mamo:
http://www.rowthree.com/2011/08/09/mamo-212-ape-goes-up-ryan-comes-down/
Well, as the 2 time winner, I’m going down in flames this year. I got a few rankings close, but dollar amounts were so very, very off. I over estimated everything except for Hangover 2 and Harry Potter 7.2. When I posted my entry I mentioned “My numbers all add up to way too much, but I don’t know where to subtract” apparently I should have subtracted from almost everything.
Next year perhaps we can have a secondary contest just for bragging rights guessing how many comments the post is going to get.
I need to step my game up next summer.
Kudos should be reinstated to Mr. Matthew Price, as it looks like Rise of the Planet of the Apes will knock out X-men out of 10th place. Which is quite an amazing feat for a film coming out in August. More and more there seems to be films that managed to do well in this month. I’m curious on how Conan will do this weekend, as I have no reading on it what so ever, but have seen plenty of promotion for it.
Conan will probably do 20m.
Early Weekend Estimates
1. The Help – 21m
2. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – 16.5m
3. Spy Kids – 12.3m
4. Conan the Barbarian (Marcus Nispel) – 10m
5. The Smurfs 8.5m
6. Fright Night (Marti Noxon) – 8m
FUCKING SHAME Fright Night only made 8m. It’s a legit great film. Well made, written, & acted(minus Mclovin). And it feels like there was zero studio interference.
Boy – Conan and Fright Night got slaughtered, huh? What was the studios’ thinking on those lamebrained remakes?
I think with Conan, it started off as wanting to make a new movie with Arnold as an older Conan, with it called “King Conan: Crown of Iron”. That died when Schwarzenegger became governor, but somehow the project kept rolling along with other people involved.
Meanwhile, Rise of the Planet of the Apes keeps rolling along. At this rate, it might pass a few of those movies in the $160 million dollar range. I finally saw the movie last night and it was pretty packed audience.
I really liked Fright Night, it’s a good movie. I think the studio fucked it over by putting it August. It’s not a summer movie, it’s a fall movie.
Just found out Marti Noxon wrote Fright Night. That makes a lot of sense and I makes me love it even more.
Also, Colin Farrell would make an amazing Sire. He can pretty much sire me any fucking day. Total mancrush
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/business/media/summer-movie-attendance-continues-to-erode.html
Some of the more recent movies have a few more millions to squeeze out and Rise Of the Planet of the Apes looks like it will knock a few more movies down. However, it looks like Toro913 will win this year’s box office contest.
I think Toro913 has won as well. Final numbers and standings will be published here in this thread on September 16, exactly 6 weeks after ROTPOTA opened in August, as per the contest guidelines.
yay me!!
more importantly, how did I fare? Am I the Oracle of Row Three or what?
@Rot, we’ll reveal all after TIFF has ended and we canm catch our breath and do a proper show.
@Toro, Yay you, indeed!
Awesome job, Toro. Congrats!
Rise is still rising, will most likely be 7th overall (maybe even 6th?).
With appreciation to all, the contest is now closed, and the winner has been announced, on Mamo #221: http://www.rowthree.com/2011/09/25/mamo-221-and-lord-knows-ill-be-wrong-again/
A weird thing to notice while browsing 2011 film entry on wikipedia, but I have not seen a single one of the top World Wide Grossing Films of 2011. That’s got to be a first since I’ve been going to the movies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_in_film