The summer box office picks are here! Listen to the Matts do their regular sham job of trying to figure out which movies will win, which will tank, and which will win by blowing aircraft out of the air with a free-falling tank.
CONTEST UPDATE:
Make your predictions of the top ten domestic grosses for the summer of 2010 in the comment section for your chance to win a dvd of your choice (max value $30). You have until Midnight, Thursday May 6th to submit your choices, and please make sure to include your email address. Affiliates of Row Three are disqualified from the contest, but may still play along for bragging rights. The Summer ends, according to our tabulations, six weeks after the last film picked by someone, but roughly sometime in September, at which time a winner will be announced.
A list of films coming out this summer can be found here
The nitty gritty of the tabulation is as follows:
A. 1-10 Points for film rankings. If you are bang on (your #1 pick comes in #1) you get 10. If you are 5 places away (your #8 film comes in #3) you get 5, etc.
B. 10 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 5 million of the actual gross.
C. 5 bonus points for every film who’s gross you have within 10 million of the actual gross.
D. 1 bonus point for every film who’s gross you have within 20 million of the actual gross.
E. 10 point bonus for every film you have ranked correctly AND within 5 million of the actual gross.
Good Luck!
Here’s My List of Picks for this summer:
Toy Story 3 381
Iron Man 2 350
Shrek Forever After 290
Twilight: Eclipse 260
Despicable Me 180
Robin Hood 178
The A-Team 165
Salt 155
Grown Ups 150
Sex & The City 2 140
Can’t wait to hear from the rest of you. Stay tuned for the contest!
And here’s mine.
Toy Story 3 $400
Iron Man 2 $360
Eclipse $321
Shrek 4 $280
Prince of Persia $250
Inception $226
The A-Team $215
Robin Hood $195
The Sorceror’s Apprentice $190
Sex and the City 2 $150
Haven’t listened to this yet due to Easter shit but what is the deadline for the contest, will hopefully get some banner up before that
from someone’s whose wife loves the Twilight series and heard the mutterings of those types, Eclipse is the movie, fans are most looking forward to, there ain’t no peak with New Moon. Quality of filmmaking has nothing to do with this, its the Team Edward factor.
When I get around to compiling my guesses I think Eclipse will be very close to Iron Man 2.
I think One Twilight movie was enough for me. I’m simply not the right audience for it. I liked David Slade’s HARD CANDY very much, but curiously have yet to see 30 Days of Night. And then there is Alfonso Cuaron’s Harry Potter movie which was more Harry Potter than Alfonso Cuaron, so I’ve more or less given up on the ‘interesting director enters a long-running franchise’ unless it is the Alien Franchise, which seemed to more or less adapt with the director, not the other way around.
I have seen New Moon, the ending is practically satire, very teenage angst, slo-mo brooding. Not my thing, but I can still see how it is someone else’s thing.
Ok here are my grosses guesses… Women on Top…
Eclipse – $402
Toy Story 3 – $380
Iron Man 2 – $340
Sex and the City 2 – $287
The A-Team – $250
Despicable Me – $198
Prince of Persia – $189
Inception – $180
Shrek 4 – $175
Get Him To The Greek – $142
I say Robin Hood, Salt and Knight and Day do little business.
Rot, you are insane to think that Shrek4 will not make it to $200M. That is all.
put your grosses where your mouth is.
I think people are Shreked out.
As a Twilight fan yes, ECLIPSE is where it’s at. This has the makings of the best of the bunch (story + director) but we’ll have to wait and see – there isn’t much to go on at the moment.
As if we needed another reason to cringe at the thought of a 2 part Breaking Dawn, Bill Condon goes and signs up. Greeeeeaaaaat.
1. Iron Man 2 $372
2. Toy Story 3 $359
3. Eclipse $288
4. Shrek Forever After $276
5. A-Team $190
6. Prince of Persia $160
7. Inception $155
8. Robin Hood $150
9. Sex and the City 2 $143
10. The Last Airbender $140
I get the feeling that none of us will be near the ball park. This year already has surprises, like Alice in Wonderland making bucket loads. I conjured these numbers by foolishly using older takings for similar/previous installments, and assumed week to week competition may sully some films eventual box office. I know, almost for certain, that this will be no more effective than random number guessing.
Last Airbender? I guess its got as good a chance as my 10th pick, Take Him to The Greek.
Well, Airbender was one of the most popular kids shows in America rot… I for one sure hope it does a lot of business, because I have watched the entire show recently, and season 2 is pretty amazing, so I would want that on the big screen.
When I was doing my tally, just outside the top 10 were a bunch of comedies including Greek, Grownups, Dinner for Schmucks and (this does stretch the meaning of the word comedy) Marmaduke. Domestically GOOD comedies tend to make a bit over 100 million, so they all pool around that sort of region and were just outside.
I am looking forward to watching Airbender, I am still a fan of M Night, I just don’t think it will make any money, but who knows.
1. Iron Man 2 $340
2. Toy Story 3 $320
3. Inception $290
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $280
5. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice $250
6. Shrek Forever After $230
7. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time $200
8. The Last Airbender $190
9. Robin Hood $180
10. The A-Team $170
Here’s my picks:
1. Killers 1.2 Billion
2. Marmaduke 900 Million
3. Beastly 750 Mil.
4. The Switch 550 Mil.
5. Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore 450 Mil.
6. Ondine 375 Mil.
7. Get Him To the Greek 344 Mil.
8. MacGruber 300 Mil.
9. Sex and the City 2 275 Mil.
10. Toy Story 3 / 16 Mil.
names darcy, sometimes go by psyedonyms of Curtis Lemmon & Leonard Boulevard on mamo comments pages, coming out of Melbourne Australia, i’ll give you my picks by about May 4th, by then i would have seen Iron Man 2 and know wheather it will be in 3D as well as IMAX, i deserve this handicap cause us aussies still haven’t got Me & Orson Welles, Enter the Void, Valhalla Rising, Repo Men.
I hear ya, from Adelaide South Australia, it took more than a year to get The Hurt Locker
Amongst other things. On the plus side we got Iron Man 2 and Kick-Ass a week early 
We haven’t got Enter the Void or Valhalla Rising either in Canada. I bet you got The Proposition first.
there is an audio review of Valhalla Rising on leftfieldcinema.com, we didn’t get The Road or Jesse James till Feb n Apr (direct-to-dvd) respectively, both directed by aussies, am seeing Bunny & the Bull tonight we do get that first, anybody want more than a star review of that…
@Darcy, “… we didn’t get The Road or Jesse James till Feb n Apr (direct-to-dvd) respectively, both directed by aussies…”
That is madness. Both are very good films that only benefit from the seeing them on the big screen. What city do you live in, Darcy, not even the rep cinemas showing these films? The sort of cater a tad to cinemaphiles and culty sort of audiences…surprising that nobody would take a chance on showing them in the theatre for a couple of weeks, especially with the ‘home country’ directors at the helm.
p.s. We at least had the good sense to distribute THE SQUARE up here, it’s now playing in limited release, even if it is a couple years after the fact.
you got The Road in Melbourne in first week of february on big screen, but Jesse James came in Apr 2008 direct to dvd, The Square opened in June 2009 as far as i remember, you seen Mary & Max yet, not as good as Harvey Krumpet but still a contributor to 2009, the best year of animation ever (ps. its a films with a typical australian score which i hate, listen for it, luckily it dosen’t have the two aussie fads, mental disabliity and suburbia dysfuntional family syndrome)
Alrighty:
1. Iron Man 2 370
2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 305
3. Toy Story 3 295
4. Shrek Forever After 255
5. Inception 210
6. Sex and the City 2 160
7. Grown Ups 140
8. Knight and Day 136
9. The A-Team 135
10. The Last Airbender 130
Good luck all.
GE Hale
My 2010 Predictions:
Iron Man 2: 375 million
Toy Story 3: 320 Million
Twilight Saga: Eclipse: 285 million
Shrek Forever After: 280 million
Robin Hood: 265 Million
The Last Airbender: 230 Million
A-Team: 210 million
The Karate Kid: 175 million
Inception: 173.5 million
Marmaduke: 155.5 million
1.Toy Story 3 $420
2.Iron Man 2 $365
3.Shrek Forever $310
4. Twilight $275
5.Inception $265
6. A-Team $250
7. Prince of Persia $225
8. Grown Ups $200
9. Salt $185
10. The Karate Kid $178
1. Toy Story – $422m
2. Iron Man 2 – $399m
3. Shrek 4 – $321m
4. Eclipse – $312m
5. Inception – $258m
6. Despicable Me – $213m
7. The Expendables – $197m
8. The A-Team – $190m
9. Sex & the City 2 – $179m
10. Cats & Dogs 2 – $174m
Toy Story 3 $425m
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $390m
Iron Man 2 $375m
Shrek Forever After $350m
Get Him to the Greek $260m
The A team $220Mm
Prince of Persia $200m
Despicable Me $185m
The Karate Kid $170m
The Last Airbender $160m
midnight tonight is the deadline for the contest, so speak now.
1.Prince of Persia $200m
2.Despicable Me $185m
3.The Karate Kid $170m
4.The Last Airbender $160m
5. Inception 210
6. Sex and the City 2 160
7. Grown Ups 140
8. Knight and Day 136
9. The A-Team 135
10. The Last Airbender 130
Toy Story 3 $360
Iron Man 2 $350
Shrek 4 $250
Eclipse $270
The A-Team $210
Inception $180
Robin Hood $155
Sex and the City 2 $150
Prince of Persia $135
Knight and Day $125
I think it was pure blind luck that I won last time. So let’s see how I do this time. The only one I feel sure of is that Iron Man 2 will be #1 this summer.
Iron Man 2 – $400
Toy Story 3 – $320
Twilight: Eclipse – $310
Shrek 4 – $250
Despicable Me – $190
Prince of Persia – $170
Grown Ups – $160
Robin Hood – $155
The Last Airbender – $150
The A-Team – $140
Sex & The City 2 and Karate Kid were on my list but I think they will make both a under $140.
Iron Man 2-$410,000,000 410 Million Dollars
Toy Story 3-$375,000,000 375 Million Dollars
Shrek Forever After-$305,000,000 305 Million Dollars
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice-$255,000,000 255 Million Dollars
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-$245,000,000 245 Million Dollars
Sex and the City 2-$205,000,000 205 Million Dollars
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time-$180,000,000 180 Million Dollars
The Last Airbender-$135,00,000 135 Million Dollars
The Expendables-$125,000,000 125 Million Dollars
The A-Team-$118,000,000 118 Million Dollars
The contest is closed, may the best person win. From the guesses, would seem to be a battle between Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 for top spot this summer.
must be kickin ya self if you did’nt have Inception in 10, after the new trailer, would do a $50m jump for me, film is 140 minutes if anyone wants to know (imax melbourne website)
I have it at 8th. I’m good.
did anybody else have a unique pick, my Cats & Dogs 2 pick is looking good, when do you guys wrap n decide winner? After Iron Man’s opening, there’s a chance we could have 10* $200m films (Alice is about to hit $1b!) my IM2-399m looking good.
I think we all may have overestimated the gross of Iron Man 2, its at $214 million now.
yeah looks like to will make about $333m at most, more likely to makes less than Alice even after better first week, general word is dislike, i like many others will be hoping Shrek opens over $100m ottherwise it won’t hit the $300m most want, and the $321m i really want.
Rot, you might get Shrek 4 gross exactly right, i think Prince of Persia will let you down, i shouldn’t have picked S&TC2 to make $175m cause that would be more than the last, which equals #3, don’t know who the fav is? i’ll be $80m off with IM2, $140m with ShrekFA.
I set up a Google Docs spreadsheet where you can follow the contest as the summer progresses. Of course, with so few movies actually opening there is little meaning in the scoring, but as the summer moves on it should be more enlightening. You can also just use it to track the current grosses of the summer movies which are listed in the second tab.
It can be found here: http://bit.ly/BO2010
The data is pulled in near-real time from Box Office Mojo so it should always be current.
awesome, thanks for the work!
So I usually get slaughtered on my summer box office picks, but this year is shaping up to be the mama whamma.
I said:
Toy Story 3 – $400
Iron Man 2 – $360
Eclipse – $321
Shrek 4 – $280
Prince of Persia – $250
Inception – $226
The A-Team – $215
Robin Hood – $195
The Sorceror’s Apprentice – $190
Sex and the City 2 – $150
And as of right now we’ve got:
Iron Man 2 – $299 on week 6; may yet coast out near $320
Shrek 4 – $210 on week 4; will land in the mid $200s
Robin Hood – $99 on week 5; will go no further
Sex and the City – $84; will be lucky to breach $100, a real turkey
Prince of Persia – $72 on week 3; will be lucky to breach $100, a real turkey
Karate Kid – $56 in first week; first breakaway hit of the summer
Get Him to the Greek – $36 in week 2; will stop dead at $45
Killers – $30; dead
A-Team – $26; dead at $50, a summer-defining box-office bomb.
Which, sparkly vampires and the still-unrevealed surprise comedy hit (Grown Ups?) notwithstanding, leaves one no-surprises hit and one surprise hit to come: Toy Story 3 will still wake the dead, and Inception, while not doing Dark Knight numbers, is gonna crack $300 and keep on going, thanks to concept-selling visuals and a genuine paucity of any other fucking thing to see. Good for Chris Nolan. That Batman 3 greenlight is gonna sound like a lightning bolt from god.
Matt, we be tied according to GE Hale’s calculations. But you have Inception higher than me so thats a problem. But I got Eclipse.
Eclipse breaks record for one night Wednesday debut, $68 million. For all the shit I got wrong, being the only one putting Eclipse at #1 spot has to gain me some serious points. Shrek and Sex in the City are dragging me down however
Top 10 for Summer as of July 3rd
1. Iron Man 2 – $307m
2. Toy Story 3 – $269m (should do $325m)
3. Shrek 4 – $231m
4. The Karate Kid – $146m (may get $175m)
5. Eclipse – $121m (at least $300m)
6. Robin Hood – $103m
7. Sex & the City 2 – $93m
8. Prince of Persia – $87m
9. The A-Team – $67m
10. Grown Ups – $65m (max at $80m)
Matthew Fabb, GE Hale looking good.
David Brook, Ray & me (Darcy McCallum) outside chances.
COME ON INCEPTION, FUCK OFF TWLIGHT (sought of)
New Moon didn’t hit $300 mil so I think you guys are overestimating its chances to hit that number, especially since Eclipse is falling well short of New Moon’s pace.
Whoops, I seem to have left Matthew Fabb off the tabulator. I’ll see what I can do to remedy that in the near future.
Well, that was an oversight. It seems that Matthew Fabb is indeed in the lead. Post Independence Day rankings from http://bit.ly/BO2010 are:
1. Matthew Fabb 80
2. David Brook 79
3. GE Hale 79
4. Mike 77
5. Ray 75
6. Kirsten Hendricks 73
7. Matt Price 72
8. Timothy Killoran 69
9. Fingerless Hobie 68
10. Ky 67
11. Matt Brown 65
12. Mike Rot 59
13. Darcy S. McCallum 54
14. The Het 16
Still, things can move around quickly with this scoring system. Let’s see how well Inception does.
GE Hale
those look like proper rankings, though trust me man, i’ve got Expendables, Inception Cats & Dogs to come, i may still steal it.
true, Eclipse won’t make $300m, Despicable Me won’t get to $200m, could do $150m if Eclipse drops off, its only 58 on metacritic so it should, though Inception could kill, must kill it.
Awesome, 2nd place so far – I hadn’t been keeping track. Most of my picks are out now though so I could tail off quite easily. Inception should get me some points, but I’ve got a feeling it might do even better than I predicted. I’m kicking myself with some of the films I missed off now though.
Wow, great that you guys are keeping track of it like this! We’ll call the official winner after TIFF concludes in September, but it looks like you guys will have figured it all out long before then.
my choice of Expendables over A-Team, come on America help me get on mamo, man if i could sub a-team for karated kid…. sigh.
top ten as it could end
1. TOY STORY 3 – $396 into $405m
2. IRON MAN 2 – $311m
3. ECLIPSE – $293 into $300m
4. INCEPTION – $227m into $260m
5. SHREK 4 – $236m
6. DESPCIABLE ME – $209 into $220m
7. THE KARATE KID – $173m
8. GROWN UPS – $155m
9. THE LAST AIRBENDER – $128m
10. ROBIN HOOD – $105m
i’ve got the top 6 right, but Matthew Fabb may have won already, given all the films everybody has picked has come out and Expendables won’t go much pass $105m so even if Scott Pilgrim does $200m it won’t change the winner i don’t which, if somebody did the maths i think theres a unbeatable winner already.
has Matt won? Matt, Matty?
Yup, I ran your predictions through the tabulator Darcy and with those numbers Matthew Fabb would be the winner. However, with this scoring system big swings are possible. As I write this, Matt Brown is in first place at http://bit.ly/BO2010 because of the bonus points for correct rank/gross for Toy Story and correct Inception gross. If TS3 stays under 405 million he will beat Matt Price, but since Inception has a way to go, I think a Matt Brown final victory is a long shot.
GE Hale
so Gamble was wrong about how much Eclipse was going to make, that said I overestimated by a mere 100 million.
Damn, fallen to 10th – I was way off.
I am for all intensive purposes, last.
Wow… did I win again? Similar to last year I had thought I had too many movies off (A-Team, Robin Hood, no mention of Karate Kid or Inception) that I stopped paying attention at all to how I was doing quite some time ago. I just took at this post now because of Matt Brown was Twittering about the contest.
4th place in the end, that’s not so bad. Well done Matthew though, kicked our arses.